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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Yup. While we aren't out of it just yet, we're down to about a 3.8% chance to make the playoffs, according to fangraphs. I said there wasn't enough talent on the block to make us prime competitors, and I stand by that. Even if we were buying Crochet and Chisholm and everybody else on the block, we still aren't getting to a 50%+ odds of making the playoffs. Is there a chance the team starts hitting and weasels its way into the final playoff spot? Sure. It's just not likely no matter what we do. So it'd be silly to assume that Jed is out there trying to make 2024 happen.
  2. Rob
    I can't work up any actual care for the Olympics. But watching people freak out over the irreverent opening ceremonies has been fun.
  3. Rob
    It's not like that at all. There isn't enough talent on the trade block to make us prime competitors. So the buys we make aren't really geared at this season. Pearson is a fine reclamation project for 2025/2026. If we get anything out of him this season, great. But nobody with a room temperature IQ thinks this was about making us competitive for the world series this year.
  4. Rob
    Last year he was totally fine.
  5. Rob
    That's not really true, though. There appears to be a degree of bad luck thus far.
  6. Rob
    Busch put up video-game numbers in the minors and was available because he's blocked at the major league level by Freeman and Ohtani. Baty isn't blocked by anybody on the Mets. He's just putting the ball on the ground all the time so he's almost completely unable to access his power. He needs a total swing rework, and as such is a fair bit riskier. Busch's only real risk was if he'd have a defensive home.
  7. Rob
    Yup. There's no excuse for a team that has Swanson, Hoerner, and PCA up the middle to be so mediocre on defense overall.
  8. Rob
    I don't love a Suzuki trade. But if the Cubs think he has to be a DH, we're in a bit of a bind, since Morel has pretty conclusively proven he needs to be a DH next season. And since I'd rather not sell low on Morel when his batted ball data gives reason for hope, it may make sense to have discussions about Suzuki.
  9. Rob
    Yeah, we lost that one handily. I just wanted to make a Hak-Ju Lee joke, since this board thought he was the next coming. We received: Matt Garza (6.5 fWAR) Fernando Perez (0.0) Zac Rosscup (-0.6) Garza was later traded for Mike Olt (-0.6) Neil Ramirez (1.0) Carl Edwards Jr. (2.6) Justin Grimm (1.7) We flipped Carl for Brad Wieck (0.5 fWAR), but nobody else got us anything of note when they departed. At any rate, all that adds up to 10.8 fWAR. Meanwhile, we gave up: Chris Archer (18.7) Sam Fuld (1.8) Hak-Ju Lee (0.0) Brandon Guyer (4.6) Robinson Chirinos (-0.6) Archer was later traded for: Tyler Glasnow (9.8) Austin Meadows (5.8) Shane Baz (0.4) Glasnow and Manuel Margot were traded to the Dodgers for: Ryan Pepiot (1.3) Jonny DeLuca (-0.2) Meadows was traded to the Tigers for: Issac Paredes (9.6) Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2022 draft (Ryan Cermak) So all in all, we got 10.8 fWAR out of the trade. So far, the Rays have turned what we gave them into 51.2 fWAR. Granted, a good chunk of that comes from them later fleecing the Pirates and Tigers rather than coming directly from us.
  10. Rob
    Yup. I haven't gone to games, purchased merch, or even had a legitimate subscription to Marquee network. The Cubs get nothing from me so long as the Ricketts continue to be some of the grossest owners in sports.
  11. Rob
    Hak-Ju Lee is going to make it to the bigs any day now.
  12. Rob
    It's possible that such a deal might be contingent upon Bellinger agreeing to decline his options. Maybe a negotiated buyout of them.
  13. Rob
    Teams are knocking down Jed's door trying to get whom, exactly? The simple fact of the matter is that the guys we have that might be on the market are, by virtue of either their production or their contracts, fallback options. Nobody in the league is pining for Cody Bellinger or Jameson Taillon at the deadline. Other teams aren't pulling the trigger on Plan C until they know whether Plan A or Plan B might pan out. The only possible exceptions to this are Justin Steele and Nico Hoerner. Steele isn't getting traded unless there's a massive overpay, and that's more likely to happen closer to the deadline. Hoerner is in a similar boat, in that we want him here next year. Of all the valid criticisms about Jed, I don't think the timing of his moves around the trade deadline this year qualifies.
  14. Rob
    Leverage is part of it. The other part is that with this many potential playoff teams, everybody is seemingly "in it." When there were 4 playoff teams, you pretty much knew whether you were a contender or not in mid May. But now? You're gonna wait til the last second.
  15. Rob
    There's way more transients for him to murder in the LA area, and you don't have to stab through such thick winter coats. He'd be all over it.
  16. Rob
  17. Rob
    As TT has pointed out, there's quite a discrepancy about his defensive acumen. DRS loves the guy. UZR sees him as about average. OAA thinks he's one of the worst defenders in the league. Personally, I tend to average out defensive statistics given how much they can differ. So he's probably about average, while being a zero with the bat. Mastro's already got that covered, including better AAA numbers. There's no point to Walls. If you want a premium defender with a notoriously bad bat, just grab Jose Iglesias this offseason. But I've gotta warn you, his career OPS is actually above .700, instead of Walls .500 something.
  18. Rob
    Lots of em have stupid beliefs. When I'm watching sports, I want plausible deniability at the bare minimum. Seeing that dipshittery he pulled on the field the other night, he clearly cannot provide minimum competency in any regard. And TT already pointed this out, but you're putting a lot of stock in a single aberrant defensive statistic.
  19. Rob
    In 325 games at the major league level, Taylor Walls has been worth 0.4 fWAR while batting .187/.289/.296. And the batted ball data doesn't suggest he's been particularly unlucky. We have that player. His name is Miles Mastrobouni. Except Mastrobouni has decent batted ball data. And of course our guy isn't a MAGA chud. Hard pass on Walls.
  20. Rob
    If you're hoping to get a Jackson Holliday type from the Orioles, you're talking about throwing in Taillon and Leiter on top of Steele. On their own, Taillon and Leiter aren't worth all that much.
  21. Rob
    I don't want Paredes. His success relies so much on a unicorn skill of pulling the ball directly down the line. I'm just still not sold on long-term success. Then again, 3B is a wasteland for us and there's no obvious help on the way. I like Shaw, but he's not hitting for much power right now and probably needs another full year before he's ready. I guess there's just no good 3B options as things currently stand.
  22. Rob
    Steele is worth what, 5 wins on this roster? Maybe? It's not that far out of the realm of possibility that in exchange for Steele we could get a 3 WAR and 2 WAR guy in positions where we're currently running out complete trash. His production is important, but it's not utterly irreplaceable. There's risk, yes. But I think selling it as a necessity to nuke the roster is a bit melodramatic.
  23. Rob
    Don't get me wrong, I'd need to be blown away. But Steele isn't prime Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. He's incredibly valuable, but he's not dragging this ****** team into contention. I'm always inclined to listen on players like that. I'll admit it though. I have little idea how to approach this deadline. We suck, which usually indicates a sale. But we have no significant assets on expiring contracts which might actually drum up interest. Buying short-term guys doesn't make much sense, as it probably doesn't get us anywhere. And there's not a lot of great options available at the spots where we need them. Buying long-term guys might make some sense, but I'm not seeing much available. So what's left is sell long-term guys or stand pat. Both options suck. And I'm bored. So I'll talk about trading Steele.
  24. Rob
    In the infamous words of Branch Rickey, I'd always rather trade a player a year too early than a year too late. Steele is great. But he's 29 and he's already operating at the peak of what his skillset has to offer. The simple fact of the matter is that he's got a lot more downside remaining than upside. If the offers are there, the Cubs would be fools not to consider it.
  25. Rob
    I wanted to sell high on Morel over the offseason and let some other team try to turn him into a fielder. Selling now would be stupid. His value is at an all-time low. His current production is worthless, and the only value we'd get is based on him potentially rebounding. Trading him now gets us what, maybe a 40 FV prospect or two? Some low minors lotto tickets? Morel's upside represents more than we'd get for him. We aren't really playing for anything. So let's just ride this out and see where it takes us.
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