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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    I am always shocked to see that former Cub farmhand Billy McKinney is still in the league.
  2. Rob
    With Busch's hit, all the starters have hits tonight.
  3. Rob
    Strawman argument
  4. Rob
    Honestly, I wonder if the universal DH has something to do with that. Back in the day, if you had two good players at a position, it was time to cut bait on one. The Phillies had Jim Thome and Ryan Howard, and no way to play both of them. So it was time for Thome to go. Now you'd see them both splitting time in the field and at DH. The universal adoption of the DH and the popular method of rotating players at that spot rather than having a set DH may be a significant reason why we don't see so many of those trades anymore.
  5. Rob
    Up 4-1 now. Looking poised to end the skid.
  6. Rob
    It's not just his first complete game. It's the first time he's ever managed 8 IP.
  7. Rob
    I'll never forget Bryan LaHair's magical first half in 2012.
  8. Rob
    Some places just had him ranked really high because they were anticipating a breakout that's yet to arrive. Those that love Alcantara as a prospect generally do so because of the power he possesses. But the power he's showing in games is middling. For the prospect-mavens to continue to rank him highly, he's going to have to start converting that raw power into game power. The longer he waits, the more he's gonna slide down lists.
  9. Rob
    Mervis is gonna be mashing in Japan or Korea next year.
  10. Rob
    Well, that's certainly interesting. I don't suppose he failed to hustle on a play just prior to getting pulled?
  11. Rob
    Junior Caminero is more than just "a guy in AAA." Fangraphs has him as the #3 prospect in baseball, behind only James Wood and Jackson Holliday. He had a cup of coffee last year where he didn't look completely lost despite bypassing AAA entirely. In his first crack at AAA this year as a 20 year old, he's hit .271/.330/.500. His power potential is as high as just about anybody in baseball. He's gonna be a heck of a player.
  12. Rob
    Historically, Snell is way better in the second half. Career 3.95 ERA in the first half and 2.50 in the second half.
  13. Rob
    I doubt it. The equation is the same as it was before. If the offer leaves us in better position for 2025-26, we're likely to take it. If it doesn't, we're likely to pass. Despite the acquisition of Paredes, we aren't playing for 2024. It'd be foolish to push all-in from last place.
  14. Rob
    It's less likely, but it may not be entirely due to factors under his control. Such as the ballpark...
  15. Rob
    Gotta remember, 2020 was shortened by COVID. Dansby put up 2.1 fWAR in just 60 games that season. Here's the leaderboard for SS in the three years prior to signing with us: Trea Turner (16.3 fWAR) Francisco Lindor (12.2) Carlos Correa (12.1) Dansby Swanson (11.9) Xander Bogaerts (11.7) Bo Bichette (10.6) Corey Seager (10.4) Dansby had clearly established himself in the upper tier of MLB SS. If you include 2023-2024, he's still in fourth place, behind Seager but ahead of Correa. Dansby was not some god awful signing, and I'm confounded by the revisionist history that somehow completely forgets about last year and says that this year means the contract was bad.
  16. Rob
    Yeah. Part of me was rooting for the Cubs to trade him during the offseason. I was worried his value might tank if he showed an inability to play the field. But this feels like getting pretty close to full value for Morel's potential despite the last few months. So I'm good.
  17. Rob
    I do fear that the Rays will be the ones to somehow take Morel's prodigious physical tools and coach him into being a passable defender somewhere on the diamond. He could be a 5 fWAR player if that ever happens. But when it comes right down to it, this is just an exchange of risk profiles. We gave up a guy with a bat and a risky glove, and got a guy with a glove and a risky bat. Given the dearth of 3B options in our system, this makes an awful lot of sense.
  18. Rob
    Jason Heyward put up 7.1 fWAR over 7 seasons in a Cubs uniform. Dansby Swason has put up 6.4 fWAR in a season and a half. He was the 5th most valuable SS in baseball last season. The two situations are not remotely comparable.
  19. Rob
    Wow. Jed is taking a big gamble on Paredes batted ball profile translating to Wrigley. I don't love the gamble, but I guess let's see what we're giving up. On a side note, as I outlined a couple days ago in an earlier thread, all of this can be traced back to the Matt Garza trade. We gave up Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, and Robinson Chirinos. Archer was later flipped to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Meadows was later flipped to the Tigers for Paredes So if we'd never traded for Garza, Paredes would have never made it to TB where he had his big breakout, and we'd have never probably traded for him. Edit: And i totally forgot that we originally drafted Paredes. Bizarre!
  20. Rob
    I absolutely believe Jed would say he doesn't know what he wants to do. In fact, I'd be shocked if he wasn't saying that. It ostensibly shifts the burden on buyers from "this is the best offer you've received" to "this ought to convince you to sell." From that perspective, whether it's true or not, acting like he's undecided is the smart play. And honestly? I wouldn't blame him even if he's still undecided. This isn't 2021's firesale where it was obvious they all needed to go. Determining whether or not to sell a guy like Taillon isn't as simple as looking at what's left on his contract and what the offer is. The comfort of selling on him may be contingent upon what Jed feels like the rotation options would be in 2025 to replace Taillon. Some of that could be based not just on the Taillon move, but on other moves we might make to bring in potential starters. I could see a lot moving pieces needing to come together just right for Jed to be willing to pull the trigger. Maybe Jed isn't willing to move Taillon unless he gets a guy being talked about in a Happ or Bellinger trade that's having some trouble coming together. So it wouldn't be clear to Jed whether he's moving Taillon or not. We'll know soon enough.
  21. Rob
    Testing
  22. Rob
    I'm actually a big fan of the Earl Weaver method of managing.
  23. Rob
    We exchanged our fringe talent for actual talent. The reason the actual talent was available was because that actual talent hasn't translated to production yet. But there's plenty of arm for the development staff to work with. Maybe Pearson turns into something. Maybe not. But on the chance he does turn into something, there's a real potential for it to be something special. Nobody is here creaming our pants or anything of the sort. It's a numbers game. But we just got a better lotto ticket than the two we traded away. So it was a good trade.
  24. Rob
    Pearson is a former top prospect who hits 102 on the gun, but that's arguably his weakest pitch. Not even you can be so obtuse as to see no clear upside there. You're just grumpy. Go eat a snickers.
  25. Rob
    Jake Arrieta posted ERAs of 4.66, 5.05, 6.20, and 7.23 in his final season before the Cubs traded for him. His strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and even his groundball rate all sucked prior to his acquisition. He was 27 at the time. Obviously, I am not attempting to equate the two. Jake Arrieta was an all-time dumpster-diving success story. I don't expect nearly the same from Pearson. The point is that sometimes you see something in a player that you think you can fix. And then sometimes you fix it. Presumably, the Cubs think they've got what it takes to fix Pearson, and with the obvious physical tools that he has that could make him something special. I wont begrudge the Cubs for giving up two dumpy prospects for a guy who could obviously be pretty darn good if things break right for us.
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