Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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C - Adley Rutschman ($75) 1B - Matt Olson ($200) 2B - Mookie Betts ($150) 3B - Rafael Devers ($100) SS - Bobby Witt Jr. ($100) LF - Yordan Alvarez ($100) CF - Aaron Judge ($150) RF - Fernando Tatis Jr. ($75) DH - Mike Trout ($50) Total - $1,000 Will PM with Bench players.
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I'm still convinced he might have had a little something left in the tank (after all, even a dead cat bounce from a .115 BABIP will help considerably). But I can't blame him for calling it quits after a season like 2023 -- he probably wasn't getting offers worth anywhere near what he perceives his worth to be. And he's got generational wealth at this point.
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AAA has a weird mix, but it's usually "pick one" of major league velocity or major league control. There's plenty of guys down there with a cannon and trouble locating. It can also help him work on swing decisions.
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I think "can't miss prospects" has been driven out of the lexicon. Rather, there's a lot more focus now on "high floor" prospects, "MLB-ready" prospects, and "low risk" prospects (with the implicit caveat that that last category is referring to relative risk, rather than absolute risk.)
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Yeah, Happ is good. But between Tauchman, PCA, Canario, etc... we're not missing a ton if he goes down for a couple series. We've got a lot of capable OF guys.
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That's a steal. I wish we had signed him to that contract.
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Pretty much zero chance it's Madrigal. Health permitting, he's probably in line to rack up a plurality of innings at 3B this season. It's probably Thompson DFA'd. If we're looking at position players, I think Mervis is most likely.- 12 replies
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- cody bellinger
- matt mervis
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It's not even the arm that's the issue. He's got a 60, maybe even a 70 grade arm -- blasted thing is a cannon. Rather, his problem is the mechanics and accuracy. It's like having yips-era Chuck Knoblauch firing across the diamond.
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It's an awkward setup right now. Mervis could have a shot at starting the season as our DH. But to do so, he needs to have a big spring (unlikely), PCA needs to be in AAA (probable), and Morel needs to be capable of faking it at 3B (less probable). There are additional factors to consider -- Dom Smith could rediscover whatever voodoo magic led to his 2020 season. Patrick Wisdom could have an April like he did last year. Maybe a nagging injury moves one of our regulars to DH for a bit. Etc... There's factors in his favor too. But he's really gonna have to thread the needle to snag any playing time early on. I just don't see it.
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My post covered the potential downside, the potential upside, and ended with the conclusion that I liked the deal. It's literally no different than saying about any player "he's injury prone, but they're mostly fluke injuries and if he stays healthy he could easily be worth this." Don't get bent out of shape. I'm not trashing the deal.
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The David Peralta contract did that.
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Bellinger's signing makes it so that only one of Busch/PCA needs to take a step forward, which is nice. I'm wondering now if it doesn't make sense to start getting Busch a bunch of reps at 3B as well, in case the Morel experiment fails miserably.
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ZiPS has Bellinger's projection at .267/.327/.441 and 2.7 fWAR. If he does that, he's worth something like $20-25M per season, depending on the $/WAR figure you use. So this $80M guarantee is probably a bit high. It would, of course, be worthwhile if he's showing the skills to outperform his projections. But if he's doing that, he's also opting out. So in the event we actually pay out the $80M, it's quite possible we are "wasting" like half of that money due to injuries or underperformance. But I have always maintained that it is incredibly hard to have an albatross of a short-term contract. And Bellinger has the physical tools and upside (and health) that might enable him to vastly exceed the projections. The risk/reward ratio here feels about right, and since I don't have to worry about this thing for the next 6-8 years, I'm reasonably happy with the signing.
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No, now we get to complain about the people who were complaining about Jed.
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Dom Smith is nothing for anybody. If he's not mashing he stands in nobody's way.
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It's really hard to have a disastrous short-term contract. Assuming there's nothing crazy hidden in the terms, Jed did well here. I'm happy to have Bellinger back at this price.
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A couple weeks of games is a rounding error if you're looking for a 4-6 year contract. It won't make a huge difference. Meanwhile, a contender could have an injury while ST ramps up.
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Smart baserunning by PCA there.
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It's not a threat. If he makes it that far, things are either going so well for him that we won't mind paying that money. Or things are going so poorly for the Cubs that it won't matter.
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Dodgers have batted around on Musgrove in the first inning. And that's with most of their heavy hitters on the pine today. I'm starting to think they might be a problem.
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A few years back, I seem to recall a story about Boras clients having their own camp for that stuff.
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Maybe. But Boras isn't new to this. He almost certainly told them from the beginning that this will likely drag into spring training. Their expectations have likely been set appropriately.
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We aren't selling blue jeans here. I want them shorter and fatter!
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Here's the thing you aren't getting, even though TT said it very nicely. You are not obligated to respond to every post with some minor tangential comment about Trump or the Ricketts or whatever other right-wing idiocy is being mocked. For decades, people would see those posts, chuckle (or not) and move on without discussing the issue any further. One-off comments aside, the actual discussions here rarely got political. It is your dogged insistence on responding to each and every one of those comments that is making all these discussions turn political. Learn to let the minor stuff slide. Like the rest of us do when we visit our parents at the holidays and they say something racist, but it's meant in a positive way, so we don't ruin the vibe by calling them out on it. Stop ruining the vibe. Be like your kids when (if) they visit you on the holidays.
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Politics has been defined as "who gets what, when, where, and how." Who: You What: Your nuts slit When: Presumably shortly after Peralta or Smith takes an AB Where: That'll probably depend on where you are when they take that AB. How: By auto-nutslitting It's still politics. It's just a very different type of politics. Probably akin to the one that encourages people to vote against their self-interest, albeit a bit different in scale.
