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Rob

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  1. Rob
    It's late and I've had too many drinks in me to try to do real math. But if he's a slightly above average bat and glove in CF, that's probably a 3 or 3.5 fWAR player. At $8M per win, that's $24-28M during his prime. So give him a couple more years around that mark and then bring him down half a win a year. If we are at 6/$130M I'm amenable to a deal. More years or money make me a bit twitchy, particularly if he's being eyed for 1B. That said, for all the red flags in his production, he's shown a boatload of skills at the major league level. So there's no single way for him to produce at put up that 3-3.5 fWAR. He could implode on all the things we are worried about and suddenly rediscover how to hit fastballs like he did when he was MVP and still be worth the contract. That's probably worth something, but I have a hard time quantifying it.
  2. Rob
    No, what you said was other teams had "given up." You want to complain people aren't reading actual content into your lazy hottakes, go ahead. And I get that, since being a (damn good) journalist is your primary job, reliably putting forth the same effort to post here would defeat the fun, escapist quality of NSBB. So I don't blame you for being a lazy bugger. But we aren't mind-readers. That said, we seem to be largely in agreement now that you've actually said something worth saying, so let's just drop the personal horsefeathers. I'll let you have the last stab at me, if you're feeling so inclined.
  3. Rob
    If you want to complain about how things ought to be, I'm right there with you. It's absolutely horsefeathers infuriating to see teams like the Pirates who could absolutely compete if their ownership wasn't more concerned about making a buck. But the reality is absolutely nobody sees what other teams are doing and decides it's not worth bothering trying to win. If you'd rather sit here doing Portnoy style hottakes, be my guest. But it's lazy nonsense, and you know better.
  4. Rob
    That has nothing to do with it. As I said endlessly during all the rule changes, making the playoffs this large disincentivizes teams from trying to win 100+ games. With this many short series, the playoffs are very nearly a crapshoot. If an owner is looking to maximize their investment, they'll put up a payroll just good enough to sneak into the playoffs and hope the team rides a hot streak, like the Diamondbacks nearly pulled off last year. Some franchises (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees) are run like baseball teams. But most of them, including the Cubs, are run like investments. The word from ownership is maximize the investment. Jed is doing exactly what he ought to do with a directive like that.
  5. Rob
    xFIP used to be my go-to, but I've felt like it's having a hard time taking into account the proliferation of the swing plane revolution. Using the league average HR/FB feels like a cop out when hitters are now more likely to tee off on certain types of pitches. I still look at it, but I trust it a lot less than I used to.
  6. Rob
    I'm envious. That's a good fit for Atlanta. They don't need to rely on him literally at all during the regular season, so they can try to save his arm mostly for the postseason. And if they manage to have a healthy Chris Sale during a postseason run, that's potentially a gamechanger for them. ETA: It ought to go without saying that the Cubs aren't in a similar "don't need to rely on this guy to make the postseason" situation. Our chips need to be spent on reliable guys just to get us there.
  7. Rob
    How am I supposed to complain about people who know I'm complaining about them? /s?
  8. Rob
    I honestly do appreciate the time and effort that you have put into reinvigorating this site. It's a lot more modern now. And for the most part, I've liked seeing the community grow. Problem is, modern sites attract modern users. And a lot of the modern sports crowd on the internet is the type of guy who loves sites like Barstool Sports. Absent you flying the pride flag all over the site so the right-wing trolls are worried they'll catch a case of the gay simply by browsing, I'm not sure what a solution would be. Never open up the off-topic forum to new users? Or make it invite only? I certainly don't begrudge you your attempt to grow the site. But if it ends up a site full of trolls, you're going to lose the existing posters who are sick and tired of dealing with them. That's not gonna help your growth. I'd welcome just about any idea you thought might offer some relief.
  9. Rob
    The defensive metrics on Bellinger are mixed. With respect to his time in CF, DRS saw him above average until 2021, and average to slightly below since then. UZR has him floating around average. The statcast metrics have him pretty solidly above average. With respect to his time at 1B, DRS sees him as slightly above average, UZR sees him as average, and the statcast stats see him as average. So just to make this easy on ourselves, let's call him both an average CF and an average 1B for the length of the contract. If that were the case, the positional adjustment would see him as worth approximately 15 runs more per full season as a centerfielder than a 1B. In theory, we should try to peg those runs to the run environment, but since this is a lazy projections, let's just call that approximately 1.5 wins per season. The cost of a win isn't exactly linear. But at roughly $8M per win in free agency last I checked, Bellinger would be worth approximately $12M less per season if we were playing him as a 1B than if he were a CF.
  10. Rob
    In 2019, Moncada put up 5.5 fWAR. In the COVID-shortened 2020, he played at a ~ 3.0 fWAR pace. In 2021, he put up another 4.0 fWAR. For those three years, he looked like a potential franchise cornerstone. 2022, he dealt with injuries, his walk rate slipped, and his BABIP was roughly 80 points below his career norm. The injuries were clearly impacting him. Last year, he put up 1.2 fWAR in a little more than half a season's worth of action, despite his walk rate dropping to the lowest of his career (outside of a cup of coffee in 2016). I want to be clear -- in no way do I think Moncada is likely to be worth the contract he's got for next year. But being willing to take on his contract would lower the prospect cost for a guy like Cease. Since we've supposedly got a fair amount of money to spend, but the problem is not having targets to spend it on, using cash to lower the prospect cost of Cease and simultaneous make a mild upgrade at 3B seems potentially worthwhile. [Meanwhile, there is a slim but non-zero chance that Moncada rediscovers his form and is actually worth the contract]. He's not a standalone deal, but I'd be interested in the Cease + Moncada package.
  11. Rob
    I would quibble with the description of Moncada as a "negative value player." His production has vacillated significantly over the last 5-6 seasons, but he's never been a negative fWAR guy. Even the last couple years, which have been clear disappointments, would put him in the Wisdom / Madrigal tier of player, which is below-average but above-replacement. If he has negative overall value, it is 100% due to his contract. And that's just because the contract is so heavily backloaded. That said, I'd have some interest in Moncada in the right deal. While he's probably no better than our current options, he does certainly possess a ceiling that neither one of them can come close to. Think of it like Bellinger last offseason -- there's always a chance these reclamation projects work out. The tools are all there -- it's just trying to find a way to reliably access them. If the front office thinks they see something they can fix, Moncada could be a very interesting target.
  12. Rob
    They're both bench quality players. Incidentally, I really like having them both on the bench. Madrigal for the times you just have to put a ball in play, Wisdom for when you absolutely need a HR.
  13. Rob
    Decatur, IL area. Lots of slow load times.
  14. Rob
    If it's not us, I'm just glad it's not the Cardinals. He struck me as a guy who could have been a thorn in our side for quite some time.
  15. Rob
    I do worry if there's some question of diminishing returns when it comes to infield defense. After all, Swanson is as good as anybody in the game at SS right now.
  16. Rob
    Yeah, I'll be honest, I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen more of an attempt to play Morel at third. He's always had a plus-plus arm, but troubles with range and hands. That combo would seemingly play better at 3B than 2B, but the Cubs have been more comfortable letting him play 2B. I mean, I'd get it if they just decided he was an outfielder. But if they're gonna let him play infield, they ought to try to maximize the value of his arm.
  17. Rob
    Part of the reason I've been so down on reupping with Bellinger is because PCA's defense gives him a pretty high floor in CF. So I don't generally see the 1-2 win gap between their expected production as worth the contract Bellinger will demand. That said, if we could turn PCA into a guy like Luzardo, I'd be a lot more interested in a reunion with Bellinger.
  18. Rob
    Signing Bauer cheap isn't the problem. It's that their insurance doesn't cover sexual battery.
  19. Rob
    I still don't see it. There are bigger issues at stake. Namely, the league's antitrust exemption, which has been under constant fire in the last decade. As has been stated previously in this thread, there is a specific rule governing deferrals. And it states that there is no limit. This is what the sides bargained for. The point of the "best interests of baseball" clause is largely flexibility to deal with unforeseen circumstances. But since the owners and players bargained about this exact point, it would be an incredibly aggressive use of the clause. And having a commissioner with virtually unchecked power who uses that power aggressively would give those arguing against the league's antitrust exemption a very strong data point on their side. And again, I would caution against thinking of this as an end-run circumventing the rules. It's not a loophole. Think of it as two separate agreements. (1) Ohtani signed a 10/$460M deal. (2) Ohtani agreed to loan the Dodgers $44M per year of that deal at ~5% interest over an additional ten years. Neither of those agreements would violate any rules on their own. There's nothing about this that is obviously bad for the game.
  20. Rob

    Glasnow...Now?

    Rob replied to Tim's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Rumor has it, the OF may not be Margot. It could be Arozarena. Apparently he scrubbed one of his social media profiles of the Rays, and tagged Shohei in a post. And I guess Ohtani's interpreter just followed Arozarena? It's probably more flight-tracker stuff. But I'd be a bit miffed about this.
  21. Rob
    Honestly, I'm surprised that's the marginal proposal you're jumping on. Literally a page or two earlier I suggested signing Josh Donaldson because I thought he might get roided out. That's a far less defensible sales pitch.
  22. Rob
    Setting aside that you think I don't understand the statistics for no apparent reason, I am hardly the only one to look at them and find cause for concern. Basically every site is full of people wondering whether Bellinger can replicate his 2023. And if he can't, that's not a ~ $180M player. Full stop. On a side note, I do fully endorse your claim that you are the exception to the swear filter. But I do wish Fred was here to get mad at us for it nonetheless.
  23. Rob
    You're calling me the dumbass, and that's the whole of your analysis? I can't possibly make a good point because I suggested signing a talented but troubled guy as a 4th OF? Or is it that I don't pay enough attention to awards? Good thinking, Jim Henry! I liked the Bellinger signing for peanuts last off season. But there's a 50% chance this signing ends up looking a whole lot like Jason Heyward, and our ownership sucks too much to be comfortable with that much risk. If we were the Dodgers, with an ownership group that actually spends, you and I wouldn't be having this discussion. I'd be fine with it. But so long as the Ricketts remain the Cubs owners, it's a bad idea. Dumbass.
  24. Rob
    Honestly, taking the contract is probably enough. That said, I have trouble seeing the point. Cronenworth is a 2B, but we don't need that. He played 1B for the Padres last year, but he doesn't have the bat necessary to be much of a contributor there. The only way I'd be interested is if I thought he could transition successfully to 3B. I haven't watched enough of him to have an opinion on that.
  25. Rob
    Alright, we've talked a lot about batted ball issues, two strike approaches, and basically everything under the hood with respect to his offensive performance last year. What part of the analysis do you actually take issue with?
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