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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    With his speed and arm, I have to believe the Cubs are going to spend a lot of time this season trying to make him an outfielder. He could be a superlative RF if they can just develop his instincts out there.
  2. Rob
    Press conference wins factor into real wins at a conversion rate of 420:69.
  3. Rob
    He'd have to stop being weird on the internet. I just don't think he's capable of that.
  4. Rob
    In fairness, sometimes a slower fastball can be more effective. When Zambrano would reach back and really try to let one rip, the thing was straight as an arrow and lacked all the movement that made it an effective pitch. Of course, that's not a real defense of the move, but I'm going to laugh if Farhan falls back-assward into this being a great contract because Hicks fastball suddenly works when he throws it slower.
  5. Rob
    FWIW, ZiPS projections may be twenty years old now, but the underlying projection system is continually receiving tweaks. He started folding in Statcast data a few years back. So to head off any arguments at the pass -- yes, these projections are incorporating advanced analytics like exit velocity, launch angle, spin rates, etc...
  6. Rob
    I appear to have stolen Derwood's bandwidth. Don't make me give it back.
  7. Rob
    Yeah, at this point it's pretty clear what the Cubs think of Mervis. If another team comes along looking to plunder him, I doubt it would take much. That said, he's decent depth, and the Cubs are probably perfectly content to give him a list of things to work on and see if he can't fix something in AAA until roster issues force them to make a decision.
  8. Rob
    It's possible, if incredibly unlikely, that Counsell decides to try out some Kevin Mitchell defensive alignment. Morel or Busch may be more viable as infielders with Imanaga and his crazy FB tendencies on the mound. I don't see it as likely, but Counsell is more of a tinkerer. He might like the rare matchup.
  9. Rob
    I like Busch more than Morel, if only because we need some more left-handed bats. And Busch certainly has that. But honestly, I wondered if acquiring him meant we expect Hoskins to sign elsewhere. I kinda figured Busch was ticketed for 1B/DH rather than trying to play him at 3B.
  10. Rob
    With all cheap arms, the real answer to #2 is going to be "we see something that we think we can tweak to turn him into an effective reliever."
  11. Rob
    Less. That'd be more like 4/60 now.
  12. Rob
    The Fangraphs Depth Chart predictions (which are admittedly trash) have him as our #2 starter behind Steele. I imagine it'll probably look similar when ZiPS comes out. This also helps with the pen a bit, assuming some guys like Wesneski who might not make the rotation have a chance to see if their stuff plays up out of the bullpen.
  13. Rob
    I'm guessing the 2/30 "minimum" is actually an awkward middle ground. Thus far, we've been seeing reports that this thing is structured in a very convoluted way with multiple player and team options. 2/30 is probably what happens if neither side exercises those options, which is a rarity. Typically, we'd expect that he'd either pitch well enough that the team exercises their options, or he's ineffective/injured to the point that the player is exercising their options (which would presumably take this past 2/30.) Unless those player/team options are structured in incredibly unconventional ways, I sincerely doubt this plays out as 2/30.
  14. Rob
    More or less the same from me.
  15. Rob
    Interested to see if this board still complains about Jed.
  16. Rob
    Yeah, because in the year of our lord two thousand and twenty three, baseball analytics have never touched on predicative stats. We're all still just out here counting RBIs and pitcher Wins.
  17. Rob
    Per Baseball Savant, Josh Bell's wOBA was .323 last season (.345 xwOBA). Cody Bellinger's wOBA was .370 last season (.327 xwOBA). In other words, based on their batted ball metrics last season, Cody Bellinger's stat line should have looked an awful lot like the "washed" Josh Bell's actual line. And Bell's line should have been better. Yes, Bellinger is the better player due to his defense and baserunning, but in all likelihood we aren't talking about drastically different bats here. Now, I'm not out here banging the drum for Josh Bell. But if his bat recovers to where we'd expect, he'd be worth near the value of his contract, but not the full value. It's not like taking him on is the equivalent of taking on a massive dead-money contract, such as Strasburg. It's probably more like $6-8M. You don't get Luzardo for peanuts by taking that off their hands.
  18. Rob
    Feels ever so slightly light on our end. I see that it's roughly even in a BBTV sense, but I feel like sites like those massively undervalue guys like Luzardo. There'd be a line out the door to trade for him if he was available, and somebody would overpay. I also think Morel's value is a bit depressed. It's painfully obvious to the rest of the league that for the Cubs he's best utilized as a trade chip. I've no doubt he's been included in every trade discussion we've had this offseason. At a certain point, that does start to lower the perception of the guy.
  19. Rob
    Michael Brantley just announced his retirement. I had some very mild interest in him as a possible option for LF/DH. His bat has always been solid -- he just had trouble staying on the field. I'm guessing he went on the market thinking of himself as a full-time starting caliber player, was finding he was only being offered a salary commensurate with part-time roles, and decided to pull the plug on what was a pretty underrated career.
  20. Rob
    I would fall all over myself to pick up Tarik Skubal if he's available.
  21. Rob
    I hate the billionaire owners. I like most of the players (or at least hate them less than the owners). If a player is ever in a position to take a bite out of one of the owners, I love that. And if Boras helps them do so, I'm a fan.
  22. Rob
    I was just posting something similar. While ownership might like the idea of an early signing deadline because it might decrease salaries a tiny bit, there's about zero chance the MLBPA agrees to something like that without significant considerations elsewhere. And even if you could get everybody on board, I'm not sure the commissioner's office would want to bother. Like you said, having a months-long media presence is probably a slight boon for interest. If December 31st was some sort of signing deadline, I doubt many of us would post here in January/February.
  23. Rob
    Kerry Wood's return was announced at the Cubs Convention. Probably some others, but I can't recall those offhand. https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/nearly-gone-kerry-wood-comes-back-to-cubs/300882/
  24. Rob
    Collusion implies some secrecy. This was all done right out in the open, with the full consent of the MLBPA. Tony Clark is an embarrassment.
  25. Rob
    He did lose a lot of value last year due to playing 1B, but he gained a lot of value through what is probably just random variance. While I too would hope for 4 WAR, I don't see enough to feel comfortable projecting him to that number. I like Cody Bellinger. I was a big fan of signing him last offseason. And if they resign him this offseason, I will happily root for him and hope last year was a building block towards him regaining his MVP form. But on the balance of risks, I feel as though everything above approximately 6/$130M is just wasted money he's unlikely to ever earn. At 6/$150M, that's basically a rounding error. At his asking price of roughly 8/$220M, suddenly that's a ton of cash that could have a substantial impact on how we're able to build a team around him going forward.
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