Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[chi-guy]

Count me in on Cespedes band wagon as well but in reality isn't any team that signs him to a $50M+ contract just hoping he's going to be somewhere near as good as Fielder? Based on his "reported" age he's 26 - which is essentially the same as Fielder - so the getting younger argument isn't exactly valid in his case. After years playing on the island, no one really has any idea how his bat and skills will translate to MLB. I fully understand the difference between signing a guy to a $50-60M contract (Cespedes) versus a $150M contract (Fielder) but do you think Fielder makes up that ~$100M in being a known value versus hoping that this kid who's never seen a true big league pitch pans out?

 

www.chi-guy.com

[SouthSideRyan]

And let's not forget that the owners get a tax write off on everything under the sun to add to their profits. These guys are smart, successful business men and none of them are losing money. That's why there's always lots of interest when a sports franchise goes up for sale.

 

If someone's just looking for profit, there are much much better ways than a sports franchise. They do make money, but for these mega-rich guys, owning a team is more a bucket list type thing.

 

Bucket list type things are sailing to Tahiti, owning a sports franchise may be an ego thing, but it's extremely profitable. The Cubs were sold to the Tribune Co. in 1981 for $20.5 million and then sold to Ricketts for $900 million in 2009. If you know a better way to make that much profit, let me know. Some of the worst owners in sports end up selling for a lot more than they paid for a franchise.

 

I'm not arguing that the value of the Cubs isn't much greater now than 1980, but to give it some context, the stock market was at 759 in 1980.

 

759 to 12099???

 

brb, putting all my money in the stock market.

[Little Slide Rooter]

this is sort of off the tangent, but i really want cespedes and soler. hell, i'd consider the offseason a massive success if we got both and didn't get fielder.

 

How dare you disrupt the discussion on the Yeonnis Cespedes thread with talk of Yeonnis Cespedes. And yes, that would be a huge success and I could see us going after both and we could get both for the same price we were willing to pay for Pujols or Fielder just a few weeks ago. They're not exactly interchangeable as Cespedes would be expected to step in in the next year or 2 and Solar would be coming up with the younger guys like Wells, Maples, Baez, Golden, and Vogelsbach.

[KingCubsFan]

Count me in on Cespedes band wagon as well but in reality isn't any team that signs him to a $50M+ contract just hoping he's going to be somewhere near as good as Fielder? Based on his "reported" age he's 26 - which is essentially the same as Fielder - so the getting younger argument isn't exactly valid in his case. After years playing on the island, no one really has any idea how his bat and skills will translate to MLB. I fully understand the difference between signing a guy to a $50-60M contract (Cespedes) versus a $150M contract (Fielder) but do you think Fielder makes up that ~$100M in being a known value versus hoping that this kid who's never seen a true big league pitch pans out?

 

http://www.chi-guy.com

I tend to agree, which is why I'd prefer Soler to Cespedes. He seems like a better investment than giving a 26 year old who apparently isn't even ready for the majors $50 million.

[davell]

The big difference is obviously body type. If they are the same age, Cespedes is definitely going to age much, much better. From what I've heard, if he's not ready for the majors immediately, he'd need half a season of AAA to get acclimated. That said, if it's one or the other for us, I want Soler.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Count me in on Cespedes band wagon as well but in reality isn't any team that signs him to a $50M+ contract just hoping he's going to be somewhere near as good as Fielder? Based on his "reported" age he's 26 - which is essentially the same as Fielder - so the getting younger argument isn't exactly valid in his case. After years playing on the island, no one really has any idea how his bat and skills will translate to MLB. I fully understand the difference between signing a guy to a $50-60M contract (Cespedes) versus a $150M contract (Fielder) but do you think Fielder makes up that ~$100M in being a known value versus hoping that this kid who's never seen a true big league pitch pans out?

 

http://www.chi-guy.com

 

On page 11 of this thread, Question Mark Grace had a great post re: projecting players' skills and production from the Cuban league to the MLB:

 

You can call the cuban league a double a league or a triple a league if you want but the fact of the matter is that guys that are dominant there have typically remained a star here. The hernandez brothers, Contreras, Alexie Ramirez, Kendrys Morales. Chapman has been injured pretty much the whole time he has been here. Even recent guys like viciedo and leonys martin have been very successful at a young age and look like they will be very good major leaguers.

 

Finding a comparison for what he has done in cuba. Each player's last season in cuba. Stats are woefuly incomplete and very difficult to find.

 

Alexei Ramirez 2007: .335/ ??? /574 20 hr's (Home run champ)

Kendrys Morales 2002: .324/ ??? / .577 21 hr's (new rookie record)

Yoanis Cespedes 2011: .333/.424/.667 33 hr's (home run champ, new record)

 

Everyone seems to hit for high average in cuba Morales once hit .391 and cespedes hit .345 last year. This will most certainly be the biggest adjustment for Cespedes as both morales and Ramirez struggled mightly early on only to pick it adjust after a few months. .260-.280 is probably more realistic for his first season in the MLB with potential to be a .300 hitter. The power however seems to have staying power mainly because these guys are hitting so many homeruns in approximately a half of a mlb season. Cepedes is averaging between 40 and 50 extra base hits per season and he has been very consistent in doing so. Stretched out for a full season Ramirez hit 21 hr's in his first go around with the pale hose. Thus I dont think it would be crazy to see cespedes hit 25-30 in is first year in the US. With 20-30 more extra base hits from doubles and triples. He should slug close to .500. On base percentage, however, is a question mark. Leonys martin was amongst the lead leaders, #5 to be exact, with a .491 clip in 2008 Cespedes had a .404 obp that year. With high averages inflating the obp he will certainly see a drop in this area of production. He's clearly not yuniesky betancourt bad but he's not bonds either. Its kind of a crapshoot as to where his obp may fall. Conventional wisdom suggests that as long as he hits for power however he should maintain a fairly good obp, although we have learned all too painfully that this is not always true. My guess .333

 

Offensively I'm thinking he is going to look alot like 2004 Soriano at least initially. But if his defense is lock down as others suggest I'm thinking a 3.1 war should be in reach with 5 or more prime years to follow At which point, he will probably be worth a $60 million dollar contract. Also If someone has more complete stats from past cuban years post them.

 

 

some data pulled from these articles

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8152

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011 ... -cespedes/

 

http://www.baseballdecuba.com/Players-5 ... s-GRM.html

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullp ... nal_League

[Neuby]

Oakland initially had considered pursing high-profile Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, but the team believes his price tag will be too high. In addition, Cespedes is believed to want a four-year deal, too short for the A's purposes when the team hopes to move into a new stadium in three years, or a 10-year deal, which is too lengthy.

 

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/12/27/SP451MGHGT.DTL#ixzz1hrwDyXTP

[dew1679666265]

I completely agree with this. These guys seem to fit much more into the mantra of winning now and the future, so hopefully they're the top targets all along.

 

It may be nitpicking, but I don't think either fit a philosophy that includes "win now." Certainly not Soler, as he's a few years away, and it's debatable how much Cespedes will be able to contribute in 2012. That said, I do agree that given the apparent philosophy of the front office, I hope they're the top targets to this point.

[dew1679666265]

Count me in on Cespedes band wagon as well but in reality isn't any team that signs him to a $50M+ contract just hoping he's going to be somewhere near as good as Fielder? Based on his "reported" age he's 26 - which is essentially the same as Fielder - so the getting younger argument isn't exactly valid in his case. After years playing on the island, no one really has any idea how his bat and skills will translate to MLB. I fully understand the difference between signing a guy to a $50-60M contract (Cespedes) versus a $150M contract (Fielder) but do you think Fielder makes up that ~$100M in being a known value versus hoping that this kid who's never seen a true big league pitch pans out?

 

http://www.chi-guy.com

 

Keep in mind that $50-60 million will be spread out over anywhere from 6-10 years most likely. That makes his AAV around $8-10 million, while Prince would command something like $25 million AAV. There's far less risk involved in Cespedes (and I've been a big Prince advocate) and his physique gives him a better long term prognosis than Prince.

 

That said, if the idea was to attempt to contend within the next couple of years, I would prefer Prince. But if we're planning to punt a couple of years, Cespedes would probably be the better option.

[Tracer Bullet]

I completely agree with this. These guys seem to fit much more into the mantra of winning now and the future, so hopefully they're the top targets all along.

 

It may be nitpicking, but I don't think either fit a philosophy that includes "win now." Certainly not Soler, as he's a few years away, and it's debatable how much Cespedes will be able to contribute in 2012. That said, I do agree that given the apparent philosophy of the front office, I hope they're the top targets to this point.

 

Is Cespedes any further from guaranteed production than Brett Jackson? Soler is further away but both fit better into the stated goals than Pujols or even Fielder, I would think.

[dew1679666265]

Is Cespedes any further from guaranteed production than Brett Jackson? Soler is further away but both fit better into the stated goals than Pujols or even Fielder, I would think.

 

I'd probably put Cespedes and BJax around the same level as far as helping us win. I don't think either will really help us win this year, but that wasn't the reason I wanted to see Jackson starting in CF this year either. As for the stated plans, the beauty of what Theo and Jed have said to this point is that it can be taken as anything. I can easily make Pujols fit into what they've said, just as I can make Soler fit. What I think they're doing is setting us up to be really good by 2014 and both Cespedes and Soler fit that model well.

[mookie]

Jorge Soler - OF - Player

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe was told by a baseball source that the Red Sox may bid for Jorge Soler rather than Yoenis Cespedes.

Related: Red Sox, Yoenis Cespedes

Source: Boston Globe Jan 4 - 2:25 PM

 

 

Theo needs to win this duel again.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Jorge Soler - OF - Player

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe was told by a baseball source that the Red Sox may bid for Jorge Soler rather than Yoenis Cespedes.

Related: Red Sox, Yoenis Cespedes

Source: Boston Globe Jan 4 - 2:25 PM

 

 

Theo needs to win this duel again.

 

Cespedes really makes more sense for them considering where they currently stand. This being said, can't they bid on both? It's not like the Darvish bidding where only one team wins the negotiating rights. they're both just like any free agent once available.

[Abe Frohman]

I hope it is mandatory for Cespedes to pass a PED test. That should be interesting.

[davell]

On my cell, so I can't post a link, but read Cespedes will be resident around January 15th, followed by petitioning MLB for FA status. Said it's likely, despite 65 to 80 mill rumors, his likely contract will be around 4/32. Some teams have backed away. Soler is still my first choice, of the 2. But, at THAT price, go get them both Theo.......

[dew1679666265]

On my cell, so I can't post a link, but read Cespedes will be resident around January 15th, followed by petitioning MLB for FA status. Said it's likely, despite 65 to 80 mill rumors, his likely contract will be around 4/32. Some teams have backed away. Soler is still my first choice, of the 2. But, at THAT price, go get them both Theo.......

 

The way we've dumped payroll like crazy, I see no reason not to aggressively pursue both and probably sign both - barring a silly contract offer from somebody. We have an immense amount of freed up money and both fit a long term philosophy. I'll be pretty disappointed if either sign a somewhat reasonable contract somewhere other than with the Cubs.

 

Unless Theo/Hoyer just flat don't like one or both.

[wvcbxl]

Some reporters should phrase their headlines more carefully. I nearly chocked in my sandwich when I read a report this lunchtime that said "Cespedes joins Templiers Senart"

Turns out it was an 18yr old French pitcher called Leonel Cespedes switching teams in the French league. :roll:

[ctcf]

Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein

Multiple reports, originally from @kevcabral , have Yeonis Cespedes joining Aguilas Cibaeñas in the Dominican Winter League.

 

INteresting.

[ctcf]

Also this:

 

Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein

Defnitely interested. RT @RTGeorgeRealtor: @Kevin_Goldstein Finally! Do you think the Cubs are serious players for Cespedes?

[Guest]

Overabundance? RT @SplittinAdam: @Kevin_Goldstein Are #Cubs seriously interested in Cespedes with our overabundance of outfielders?

 

lol

[ctcf]

Overabundance? RT @SplittinAdam: @Kevin_Goldstein Are #Cubs seriously interested in Cespedes with our overabundance of outfielders?

 

lol

 

Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein

So they NEED OFers. RT @SplittinAdam: @Kevin_Goldstein They have DeJesus, Johnson, Jackson, Sappelt, Campana and more

[jersey cubs fan]

What are you talking about? They have more than half a dozen guys that can go out there and not embarrass themselves for a season or two.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

When I'm looking for big-league solutions, the first place I go is A-ball, aka the Cuban league.

 

Pass.

[UMFan83]

When I'm looking for big-league solutions, the first place I go is A-ball, aka the Cuban league.

 

Pass.

 

Worked out for the teams that signed Chapman, Contreras, Kendrys Morales and Alexi Ramirez.

 

Edit: I'll readily admit I don't know enough about the Cuban league to have a long intellectual discussion about the quality of the league. I just remember several players coming from there to the bigs and having success their first year. Most of them, especially Alexi, I heard tons of discussion about how bad the quality of the Cuban league was and the doubts that he would adjust quickly at all. I remember people being shocked that Alexi was going to start the season in the bigs.

[davell]

Soler is the must get for us. I don't care if costs us 25-30 mill. It'll be really interesting to see how the bidding does go with him too, because we'll kind of get a sense what a Bubba Starling type guy would get, if on the open market, instead of in a draft. As far as Cespedes goes, I'm certainly interested, but I don't really want to see us spending 60 mill on him either. If it's more like 4/32, as the latest report indicated, jump all over him. Soler's price may be overblown as well, for all we know. But, if we do get Cespedes, I wouldn't expect him to show up and give us an .800 OPS in the majors in 2012. I'll bet he spends at least a couple of months in AAA before he sees the majors. And I'd probably expect initial struggles once he gets there. But, it'd be cool to get them both, that's for sure. I wonder if he'll(Cespedes) stick in CF personally, but if he's a corner guy, I just hope the power is very real.