A Twinge and a Thud

Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Cubs Video

The Cubs can't go very far without Dansby Swanson, but it sure looks like they'll be without him for a while. After a swing in the bottom of the third inning of Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, Swanson immediately reacted with visible pain and frustration, and he walked off the field after only a very brief consultation with manager Craig Counsell and a team trainer. The Cubs announced that he'd left with discomfort in his left side. After the game, Counsell said that Swanson would go on the injured list with the issue and undergo imaging Monday to determine the severity of the injury.

Because 'setback' can be construed as a worsening of a preexisting injury, I followed up with Bastian and with a team source; both indicated that there was no known issue with Swanson's side before this. That it's a new problem is hollow succor, though, if he's likely to miss several weeks either way.

According to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, Dansby Swanson told reporters after Sunday's game that he had never had a soft tissue injury during his professional career. That's not true, so either Swanson or Levine is badly mistaken. Swanson underwent sports hernia surgery just after the 2024 season, which addresses damage to soft tissue in the lower abdomen. Swanson might have meant that he hadn't previously missed time due to such an injury, and maybe he meant that declaration as an avowal that he won't be sidelined for long by this issue, either. For now, however, it's a huge blow to Chicago's hopes.

That's because, although Swanson has been his inconsistent self at the plate this year, his value as a defender at shortstop is virtually unparalleled—especially in the context of the Cubs' lineup. Counsell indicated what any Cubs fan already knew Sunday: that Nico Hoerner will play shortstop in Swanson's absence, with Pedro Ramírez picking up extra playing time as something close to the everyday second baseman. Offensively, that's great news. On balance, Ramírez is at least as good a hitter as Swanson at this stage of each player's career. Defensively, though, it represents a massive downgrade—one the team will feel every time it takes the field in that configuration.

Hoerner is an adept fielder, but he's not as fluid or as good at the quick exchange and release as is Swanson. In 2022, he was an adequate shortstop, but he was never destined to be excellent there. Having lost even half a step since then, he's now underqualified for the spot. Over a full season, Swanson is worth a good 15 runs more than Hoerner is as a shortstop, so if he misses (say) 30 games, the Cubs will lose about 3 runs.

In fact, though, the effect will be larger. Ramírez is a fine but not superb second baseman; multiple scouts for other teams who evaluated him during trade season last month believe his best position is third. There's about a 12-run difference between the glovework of Hoerner at second and that of Ramírez over a full season, so dock the team another couple of runs on that basis. You'd better round it up to 3 runs and call it 6 between the two positions, because when a team gets weaker at two adjacent positions simultaneously, there's a slight but real exponent that should be applied to the effect.

Six runs shouldn't make or break the Cubs the rest of the way, but it's likely to cost them a game somewhere along the way. Again, if you're a believer in what Ramírez has done over his first 140 plate appearances—and he's earned a bit of confidence, by now—then he can be worth an extra couple of runs with his bat, relative to Swanson, but he doesn't have the same upside Swanson offers when he goes on one of his famous power binges.

So far, we've talked only about what will happen if Swanson misses a month but returns in time for the final few games of the regular season and is at full strength come October. That's a fair estimate, based on how much time hitters typically miss with oblique strains. However, as you can see in this graphic from Baseball Prospectus, there's about a 25% chance (the 20% represented in the monthly breakdown, scaled up slightly because it's already the middle of August and Swanson just suffered his injury) that this ends the shortstop's season.

Whatever depth Ramírez might add to the lineup (at the cost of the dynamism Swanson brings), the team is worse without Swanson. In fact, it's hard to see the team going far in October if Swanson doesn't have time to recuperate, go on a rehab assignment, and return at the peak of his ability by the time that calendar page flips.

That's a worry for later, though. In the short term, the Cubs have problems that extend beyond Swanson going down. Edward Cabrera made a return to the active roster and to the starting rotation Sunday, but it was anything but triumphant. The righty continued a disastrous season by giving up a long first-inning home run and then going to pieces in the fourth, partially because of a blister that emerged during that frame. The Cubs made a plan based on Cabrera being the pitcher they've expected and hoped he would be ever since they traded for him in January, optioning Javier Assad to Triple-A Iowa and provisionally shifting David Peterson to the bullpen.

Now, that plan appears to be in doubt. It's a concern that extends beyond the adjustments that might be required, too, because it feels like another indictment of the team's ability to develop and optimize talented players after paying hefty sums to acquire them. Cabrera joins a pitching lineage that included Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Marcus Stroman, among others, but of course, the club also didn't realize quite as much value from Kyle Tucker as they'd hoped. Tucker cost them top prospect Cam Smith, and more. Cabrera cost them top prospect Owen Caissie, and more. The team can and should keep using prospect depth to bolster their big-league roster, but they can't afford to keep getting tepid returns on those huge investments.

Losing three out of four won't plunge the Cubs into real jeopardy. They're going to make the playoffs; they still have a five-game lead over the other contenders for the top Wild Card berth. However, after the Brewers took three of four from the Dodgers in Los Angeles, Chicago is also five games behind the Crew in the NL Central. For a week or so, they seemed to be closing in on Milwaukee, and to have the depth to catch and pass them to claim the division crown and a first-round bye. Suddenly, that feels much less likely.

Swanson and Cabrera had bad days; the Cubs had a bad weekend. Perhaps that's all it'll be. The White Sox come to Wrigley Field for three games this week, giving the North Siders a chance to quickly reassert themselves. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a much-needed home run in an otherwise dreadful series finale; another hot streak from him would be the best-timed one yet. Until the response comes, though, Cubs fans will have to hold their breath a bit. Cabrera's season looks like a washout. Swanson's is in danger. The team's depth, in all departments, is a bit less robust than they might have hoped. The whole weekend went wrong, and the time to get right again is growing short.