Andre and Ryno

The roster expands on Tuesday, so this doesn't seem like much of an issue. Shaw can just join the team on Tuesday while everyone else stays. Theoretically it would be possible for Shaw to join the team this weekend, send Alcantara to Iowa for a few days just to get some reps, and then bring back Alcantara on Tuesday. Whenever Shaw returns, I presume he'll also play some 2B against lefties. Pedro has very few ABs against major-league lefties.

Very cool! A pulled air % of 29.7 is awesome. That's 14th-best in baseball. [First is Paredes, obviously, and PCA/Schwarber are tied for 3rd at 33.4.] His spray chart really shows it as well. Lots of homers to right, and lots of line drives down the line for easy doubles.

My main theory is that his deep mix of pitches all tunnel extremely well, and the tunneling induces better-than-average weak contact that gets him out of jams. He's also at the top of the charts in not giving up pulled balls in the air--the tunneling helps with that--so even when he gets hit hard the ball dies at the 380ft mark in centerfield. Among regular starters, the only guy who has a lower percentage of pulled balls in the air is Max Fried. Then Javy Assad. Then Jacob Misiorowski. Not bad! Assad has had an excellent pulled-air percentage throughout his career, so it's not a fluke. He still gives up home runs and hard contact, but he avoids the most damaging category of hard contact. The stats about doing better with runners on base suggest two possibilities. First, he pitches better out of the stretch than the windup. Some guys just do better out of the stretch. I even recall a few pitchers that started pitching out of the stretch even with the bases empty. Second, he pitches better when he has to pause a little more between pitches, as opposed to bases empty when his tempo is extremely fast and he kind of grips it and rips it. Maybe slowing down a bit helps him focus. Or maybe the slight distraction of the runner helps him not overthink the pitch. Also, very speculative, but i'd be interested in exploring potential mental/physical crossover in high-leverage situations. Does he subconsciously focus more in high-leverage situations such that those pitches are faster, or move more, or have better spin, or tunnel better, or whatever? Maybe the team has that kind of granular data. I do think we're at the point where maybe there really just is an actual physical explanation for the results. I think interviews with hitters would be needed to confirm the tunneling theory, and the team might have better data to test out different possibilities. Also very possible regression is coming soon. Also very possible it's sorcery!

I like Pedro Ramirez, but he's a ground-ball machine (50%) surviving on a massive BABIP over .360. His xwOBA is .297. Agree nobody should be expecting him to materially improve over Swanson's offense, unless he makes adjustments and starts to elevate more. If he doesn't adjust, he's going to get Ballesteros'd.

No, I think the Cubs should trade for a DH. Conforto's Cinderella magic is over, and over the last month he's been unplayable even while platoon-protected. Same for Ballesteros, who in the time it takes you to read this sentence will have grounded to 2B six times. Shaw can't hit righties. So . . . what's the plan? The team needs batting average and slug; they already have plenty of walks. They need to look hard at (I hate to say it) Arraez--or Lowe if the Pirates decide to sell and are ok trading intra-division. Buxton would be great (relatively cheap, and he can take over for Happ/Suzuki next year), but it seems hard to pull off. If the team doesn't improve the offense, then trading for more pitching won't help much. We'll just lose 5-2 instead of 6-2.

Javier Assad had two excellent starts this year, bookending one start where the Phillies lit him up. His first inning in relief was 1-2-3. Then he came into the middle of a game, and the Dodgers lit him up. After that, he pitched seven innings of excellent relief across three outings. Javier Assad outperforms his FIP, and that's not going to change. He's had six excellent outings and two very bad ones. He should have been the choice over Wicks. I can't fault Wicks for the losses in his two starts, though, as the offense scored only one run in each game. Hopefully Boyd or Cabrera is ready by the weekend.

Great article!

I dunno man. On the one hand, it's true that in today's game you need several young high performers who are earning the league minimum. On the other hand, running the September offense out there again has "third place behind the surging Reds" written all over it.

I like Alonso for these same reasons. And it's important that his market is somewhat limited. 1B/DH is perhaps the only position the Dodgers aren't interested in, which takes the largest bidder off the board. The Yankees will likely go with Ben Rice at 1B and have Stanton and plenty of others to rotate through DH. The Phillies have Harper at 1B and are not going to swap Schwarber for Alonso. The Braves are set at 1B (Olson) and DH unless they trade someone. The Red Sox have Casas but are a bit of a wild card. The Angels have Trout at DH and Schanuel playing 1B for free. The Blue Jays (Vlad) and Giants (Devers) are set at 1B but maybe have room at DH if Alonso is willing to give up 1B completely. The Astros are likely set, but like Boston their roster is somewhat in flux. The Rangers could maybe use Alonso but have bigger holes elsewhere. Other teams that might be interested are generally not likely to pay for pricey free agents (Seattle, Baltimore, Cincinnati). Realistically Alonso's market is the Mets and Cubs, with the Red Sox and Astros as wild cards, and then a Mystery Team or two. And lots of chatter in NY is that the Mets need to improve elsewhere; that chatter seems overstated, and the Mets seem to need Alonso, but he might also still be peeved by last year's awkward contract negotiations. The most likely outcome is that Alonso stays in NY, but his market is much smaller than people realize, which helps the Cubs.

Moises's swing is pleasing to watch, but there's real reason for concern. His GB% was nearly 66%, which is essentially unplayable. Unless he is able to elevate more, he is toast. His high GB% is not a wild fluke. His swing is relatively flat. Vertical tilt of 29 degrees, compared to MLB average of 32. And his attack angle is 5 degrees, compared to MLB average of 10. He's also an extreme opposite-field hitter, averaging 10 degrees to the oppo side, compared to MLB average of 2 degrees to the pull side. So we know that the most valuable thing for a hitter to do is pull the ball in the air, yet Moises has extreme opposite-field and GB tendencies. Hopefully this is all just small sample size and adjusting to major-league pitching. But the Cubs need to be confident that this offseason he will correct these serious flaws. If they're not, then they should look hard at a trade.

Very interesting! It might be useful to look at potential selection bias. If the manager lets a starter go through the order a third time, it might be because he's dealing. Whereas if he's getting shelled, he gets pulled after only one or two trips through the order, increasing those stats. So it would be interesting to look at his intragame progressions when limiting the data to only those games where he went through the order three times. As for bases empty vs runners on, my guess is that when runners are on base Assad intensifies his attempt to induce ground balls. He leans into his strength and has better results. Just a guess. Also possible that pitching out of the stretch is better for him, even though I think he doesn't do a full windup anyway.