Mets (Myers) vs Cubs (Assad): 4/19/26, 1:20pm

[squally1313]

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

So then you *best* option is a bases loaded situation against Alex Bregman, with a pitcher who is struggling to throw strikes?

Every option sounds bad. And to be clear here is your run matrix for a run scored in all of the possible situations:

3rd, 1 out: .930 runs scored

3rd and 1st, one out: 1.17 runs scored

3rd and 2nd one out: 1.4 runs scored

Bases loaded one out: 1.6 runs scored

All we are doing is making a run more likely to score by adding base runners. 

There is no clear answer here. 

That’s not quite what that statistic is saying right? I doubt it exists, but all you’re really looking for in this discussion is ‘how likely is it that a run scores’. It doesn’t matter how many. If the underlying data says (hypothetically), that the first situation scores 9 times out of ten and in the bases loaded situation, 50% of the time you score 3 runs and 50% you score none, you’re going to have a higher number in bases loaded but that’s not what you’re looking for here. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

That’s not quite what that statistic is saying right? I doubt it exists, but all you’re really looking for in this discussion is ‘how likely is it that a run scores’. It doesn’t matter how many. If the underlying data says (hypothetically), that the first situation scores 9 times out of ten and in the bases loaded situation, 50% of the time you score 3 runs and 50% you score none, you’re going to have a higher number in bases loaded but that’s not what you’re looking for here. 

it does and it doesn't. It doesn't mean Pete is more likely to score individually. We can assume that a single run is more likely to score because the number goes over 1: it's trying to assume how many runs you can expect. 

So if we expect .93 runs to score versus 1.4 runs, it's logically more likely one run scores with 1.4 than .93. And there is no data to suggest walking Nico is really lowering this. Kimbrel is high FB%, Nico is good speed and probably steals anyways, and Busch was a top- wRC+ in baseball against RHH last year and usually hits a lot of fly balls. 

It's a little wonky when determining extra innings as teams act differently. So it's imperfect, and I don't mean it to be perfect. And the Cubs don't need two runs which changes things. But point also remains; adding base runners isn't good. And of our best option is "this" than at best we are at "no clear answer" and we should probably stop acting like the Mets chose a braindead option versus a "no win situation" choice. Not that the you are just in general. 

[chopsx9]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 Run matrices says adding runners increases scoring.

You don't care about the more runs in this situation.  You only care about the runner on third.  The metrics include the additional plate appearances that likely don't materialize in a walk off situation.  What are the chances of hitting into a double paly without a runner on 1B (earlier game occurrence not withstanding) and what are the chances with?  That's not anecdotal.  Yes the Mets are likely screwed either way but you have to a least give the team a possibility to get out of it  AND if walking the player who is the both the best hitter and most likely to put the ball in play helps you do that then that's even better.

[BKHoo]

Conforto has been a revelation.  It’s good to see a depth piece make contributions like this. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

You don't care about the more runs in this situation.  You only care about the runner on third.  The metrics include the additional plate appearances that likely don't materialize in a walk off situation.  What are the chances of hitting into a double paly without a runner on 1B (earlier game occurrence not withstanding) and what are the chances with?  That's not anecdotal.  Yes the Mets are likely screwed either way but you have to a least give the team a possibility to get out of it  AND if walking the player who is the both the best hitter and most likely to put the ball in play helps you do that then that's even better.

If you have a .93 run scoring chance and it goes up, it isn't just about scoring Pete in that scenario. If Pete gets picked off, then you still have a runner on. 

We have to understand run matrices are taking all of this into account. When we add runners, we expect more runs to be scored. 

And listen, again, if your best argument is anecdotal we are inventing "what ifs" then we should probably assume there is no correct choice. Two things can be true:

1. Maybe you'd have done something different. Frankly, I don't care. 

2. It almost assuredly would not have changed the outcome. That's what I care about. Everyone playing Monday Morning manager here is just shuffling papers. Walking Nico, walking them loaded...everyone here probably lost. 

[Derwood]

19 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Conforto has been a revelation.  It’s good to see a depth piece make contributions like this. 

A major upgrade from the Jon Berti's and Miles Mastrouboni's of years past

[Wilson A2000]

34 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It frankly is embarrassing because of the over confidence of some people thinking their answer is a significantly better outcome. Yes. There is literally no good choice. Run matrices says adding runners increases scoring. There might be some small anecdotal reason you pitch to Busch over Nico, but its anecdotal. There is no correct choice here. People pretending there is a better option than the other is silly. 

And Cohen might get fired. He wont get fired because of this choice. That's asinine. 

There is no better choice between facing one of the best hitters in baseball versus one of the worst? Is it a tough situation? Of course. Was there a clear better hitter to face when you pretty much have to strike out the hitter? Absolutely. Nico Ks 10% of the time while Busch Ks 23% of the time this season. Busch’s slump and K percentage is all the analysis needed and somehow Mendoza screwed that up.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

10 minutes ago, Derwood said:

A major upgrade from the Jon Berti's and Miles Mastrouboni's of years past

remember... I can't even think of his name right now but he was on the opening day roster last year and I'm not gonna google it. He was brutal though

[NorthsideAvenger]

Something about beating the Mets with Peralta, then following that up with another former Brewer blowing a Mets lead. 

[Derwood]

3 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

remember... I can't even think of his name right now but he was on the opening day roster last year and I'm not gonna google it. He was brutal though

Vidal Brujan?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just now, Derwood said:

Vidal Brujan?

that's it

[Derwood]

Run Diff tells us that the Reds and Cards are frauds

[CubUgly]

35 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Conforto has been a revelation.  It’s good to see a depth piece make contributions like this. 

No doubt.  He could not have looked worse his first 6 at bats, it was horrific.  

But you can make an argument he has had two hits that basically won us 2 ball games.   That to me is already worth the signing if he flames out the rest of the year. 

[Brian707]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Vidal Brujan?

His name sounded like he owned a shampoo company 

[JHBulls]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/QA2d0aAIYP

You’ve got to love Baseball. Drilling a guy because a different guy ran where he shouldn’t have ran. 

There are so many unwritten rules, that I can’t keep up.

[Papa Cub]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/QA2d0aAIYP

Yeah they mentioned that on the radio broadcast I was listening too as well - it was pretty clear

[JHBulls]

You just know that Mets fan was having some hilarious drunken tirades. 

[cl smooth]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

It really isn't. No one is getting fired because of a run scoring with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. 

 

[Bertz]

With all the guys on the IL this bullpen can't really reach good shape currently, but it's particularly rough tomorrow. 

Ideally they bash Nola's skull in, otherwise though a clunker from Rea (that, crucially, does not keep him from going 5) wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

[mk49]

19 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

 

I guess he overrated Busch and Bregman.😄  And, that's good for us.  To me, and to many of us, Nico was the best hitter in that situation.  Walk Nico or not, they probably lost, anyway.

[Rcal10]

I heard the highlight of the last inning and even Coomer said he was shocked the Mets were pitching to Nico. I agree, there are no real good options and there was a good chance the Cubs score no matter what the manager did. But pitching to Nico was thr worst decision of his bad options. I know that as a fan I was very happy when I found they weee pitching to him. Again, to be clear, I am not saying my decision would have saved the Mets. I get the Cubs weee cert likely to score. Put pitching to a guy who is very good with men on base and who makes contact better than almost anyone in baseball, just isn’t a good decision. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

28 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

 

So if the Mets had walked Nico, does Hoerner steal 2nd or does he stay put at 1b?

If Hoerner does steal 2nd, would the Mets have pitched to Busch with men on 2nd and 3rd or Bregman with the bases loaded?

To me, Mendoza was in a no-win situation. 

 

[Illiterate Scholar]

Nico would've been given 2nd base; they would not have thrown through. As has been stated, Kimbrel isnt a GB guy anyway. In that situation, the decision for Mendoza should've been to chase a strikeout which is more likely with Busch than Hoerner (split slashlines mean less when you dont need to reach base). Then choose whether to pitch to Bregman or I assume Amaya after him. 

[BKHoo]

2 hours ago, JHBulls said:

You’ve got to love Baseball. Drilling a guy because a different guy ran where he shouldn’t have ran. 

There are so many unwritten rules, that I can’t keep up.

The pitcher seemed annoyed with himself - I don’t think it was intentional.  

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

Nico would've been given 2nd base; they would not have thrown through. As has been stated, Kimbrel isnt a GB guy anyway. In that situation, the decision for Mendoza should've been to chase a strikeout which is more likely with Busch than Hoerner (split slashlines mean less when you dont need to reach base). Then choose whether to pitch to Bregman or I assume Amaya after him. 

Of course it is a no win situation. But better to face a guy they can strike out than a guy who makes a lot of contract. I don’t think anyone is saying had they did something else it would have worked. Just, pitching to the best contact hitter in the team when they have their best baserunner on 3rd is probably the worst option they could have taken.