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Posted
Just now, Jason Ross said:

It's probably the right call. Kimberl doesn't get ground balls and Busch is a LHH. He's struggled for a few weeks but it's not a great matchup.

I don’t agree. I was saying as Nico came up they had to walk him. If he steals second let him go. Pitch to Busch. Maybe nibble. If you miss then bases loaded for Bregman. If I am the Mets manager I would rather face Bregman than Hoerner. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree. I was saying as Nico came up they had to walk him. If he steals second let him go. Pitch to Busch. Maybe nibble. If you miss then bases loaded for Bregman. If I am the Mets manager I would rather face Bregman than Hoerner. 

It’s just simple - you pitch the Busch instead of Nico.  It’s not rocket science.  That was a HORRIBLE brain fart. 
 

One guy is maybe the hottest hitter in baseball the other the coldest. 

Edited by BKHoo
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree. I was saying as Nico came up they had to walk him. If he steals second let him go. Pitch to Busch. Maybe nibble. If you miss then bases loaded for Bregman. If I am the Mets manager I would rather face Bregman than Hoerner. 

Kimbrel has very real L/R splits. Kimbrel doesn't get ground balls to begin with. Busch hits a lot more fly balls than Hoerner does traditionally. Pitching to Hoerner was the right call. Both are bad choices but you pitch R-R with the hitter more likely to hit it on the ground. 

Hoerner got the SF. Both are bad choices. Pitching to Nico is the better option even if he came through. The Mets were in a near lose-lose proposal.

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Kimbrel has very real L/R splits. Busch hits a lot more fly balls than Hoerner does traditionally. Pitching to Hoerner was the right call. Both are bad choices but you pitch R-R with the hitter more likely to hit it on the ground. 

Hoerner got the SF. Both are bad choices. Pitching to Nico is the better option. 

I couldn’t disagree more. Know where their respective heads are at - right now.  One is feeling 100 percent confident, the other is the opposite.  AND you have the double play in play. 

Edited by BKHoo
Posted
4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Got the W, at least the Brewers joined them in last now.

Lol

But of course the other 3 teams won haha. Not that standings matter right now but it’s wild how well everyone was doing. 

Posted
1 minute ago, BKHoo said:

I couldn’t disagree more. Know where their respective heads are at - right now.  One is feels ng 100 percent confident, the other is the opposite.  AND you have the double play in play. 

Hoerner steals 2nd base with a fielders indifference immediately if you walk him. There is no double play option. The Mets aren't guarding against it with the game winning run on 3rd. Especially if it's PCA who goes on a steal attempt. 

Posted

To put it another way; if your other option is "maybe the guy who was in the top-10 of RHH vs LHP last year is mentally not perfect" than there is no clear option for the situation you're in. 

The Mets were in a situation where almost anything they did was going to result in a run scoring. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Hoerner steals 2nd base with a fielders indifference immediately if you walk him. There is no double play option. The Mets aren't guarding against it with the game winning run on 3rd. Especially if it's PCA who goes on a steal attempt. 

Explain it however you want, as a Cubs fan I would much rather see Hoerner up with a man in third then Bregman up with the bases loaded. Which is probably they way I would have done it had I been the Mets manager. Kimbrel may not given you many ground balls, but Bregman does but the ball on the ground. I just know I was very happy and surprised they pitched to Nico, regardless of if you think it was the right play. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Hoerner steals 2nd base with a fielders indifference immediately if you walk him. There is no double play option. 

Then you walk Busch if you are worried about splits.  Even when they are both going well Hoerner is much more likely to put the ball in play.  On top of that Busch has been ass all season.

Posted

Anyone catch the latest Frank the Tank clip? Poor guy may stroke out for real - he’s got a point about Mendoza man……terrible management on their part. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To put it another way; if your other option is "maybe the guy who was in the top-10 of RHH vs LHP last year is mentally not perfect" than there is no clear option for the situation you're in. 

The Mets were in a situation where almost anything they did was going to result in a run scoring. 

I would have walked Busch too, or pitched around him. If I am the Mets manager I would much rather face Bregman with a force out in play then Nico. Remember, Kingery is after Bregman if they happen to get Bregman out. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Then you walk Busch if you are worried about splits.  Even when they are both going well Hoerner is much more likely to put the ball in play.  On top of that Busch has been ass all season.

So then you *best* option is a bases loaded situation against Alex Bregman, with a pitcher who is struggling to throw strikes?

Every option sounds bad. And to be clear here is your run matrix for a run scored in all of the possible situations:

3rd, 1 out: .930 runs scored

3rd and 1st, one out: 1.17 runs scored

3rd and 2nd one out: 1.4 runs scored

Bases loaded one out: 1.6 runs scored

All we are doing is making a run more likely to score by adding base runners. 

There is no clear answer here. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would have walked Busch too, or pitched around him. If I am the Mets manager I would much rather face Bregman with a force out in play then Nico. Remember, Kingery is after Bregman if they happen to get Bregman out. 

And yet bases loaded 1 out is the highest run expectancy you could create. There is no clear answer and we gotta stop pretending there is. If "What I would have done" is add to the chances a runs scores, there just isn't a good choice. A run was almost always going to score there. 

Posted
28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Kimbrel has very real L/R splits. Kimbrel doesn't get ground balls to begin with. Busch hits a lot more fly balls than Hoerner does traditionally. Pitching to Hoerner was the right call. Both are bad choices but you pitch R-R with the hitter more likely to hit it on the ground. 

Hoerner got the SF. Both are bad choices. Pitching to Nico is the better option even if he came through. The Mets were in a near lose-lose proposal.

That's how you get yourself fired as a manager

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

That's how you get yourself fired as a manager

It really isn't. No one is getting fired because of a run scoring with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

It really isn't. 

Oh but it is. Cohen isn't going to take the team playing like this for long and you're giving him an excuse to fire you. Nico is one of the best contact hitters in baseball and happens to also be one of the best hitters in baseball right now. Then you have Busch who is one of the coldest hitters in baseball with the potential for a double play if you walk Nico, The fact that we're even having to debate this is embarrassing. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Old Nico would have chopped that ball to the 2B. Teams are gonna have to adjust their scouting reports. 

That still likely scores a run.  That's why its pretty questionable pitching to him, especially with PCA on 3rd, he's going to put the ball in play 90%ish of the time.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Oh but it is. Cohen isn't going to take the team playing like this for long and you're giving him an excuse to fire you. Nico is one of the best contact hitters in baseball and happens to also be one of the best hitters in baseball right now. Then you have Busch who is one of the coldest hitters in baseball with the potential for a double play if you walk Nico, The fact that we're even having to debate this is embarrassing. 

It frankly is embarrassing because of the over confidence of some people thinking their answer is a significantly better outcome. Yes. There is literally no good choice. Run matrices says adding runners increases scoring. There might be some small anecdotal reason you pitch to Busch over Nico, but its anecdotal. There is no correct choice here. People pretending there is a better option than the other is silly. 

And Cohen might get fired. He wont get fired because of this choice. That's asinine. 

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