Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[gflore34]

I was thinking Palencia is cooked and should be shut down, appears, lately, he's improved.  Maybe, just maybe, he'll have a run of effectiveness in the coming weeks?  I figure Thornton and Theilbar are out of the PS picture, guessing Rolison is set.  Webb is a big concern, going into the all star break and slightly after it wasn't he very effective and reliable?  For the past month or so, he's consistently hung the change-up, might he be able to get back to where he was at the all star break?

[squally1313]

The Phillies are interesting in that their 2 best hitters (Schwarber and Harper) are LHB, but Schwarber is pretty split neutral and then most of their other (bad hitters) are better against LHP, to the extent that they are 16th in wRC against LHP vs 28th in wRC against RHP. Maybe it was just me, but when I think Phillies offense I think those two, and I was trying to figure out how to stack LHPs while still using our top 2 starters. But really, I think it's pretty straightforward. Holmes then Gausman pretty normally, with Peterson and Rolison getting the top of their order at least once, and then Shota sees 12 guys and has a short leash from there. 

[BigSlick]

1 hour ago, bukie said:

I don't think a lot of folks appreciate how good the Cubs have been offensively and defensively.

For example, they are so far ahead of the field right now in combined team fWAR that if you took PCA out of the equation entirely, they would still lead the league in fWAR.

The Cubs lead the league in WAR from position players and are literally last in the league in WAR from pitching. 

It's actually quite impressive when you think about it. It would be hard to accomplish if you really tried to do it. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t understand how the Phillies can have a pitching WAR of 29 and the Cubs team WAR is less than 2, while the Phillies have given up 24 less runs than the Cubs.

It's four guys that are accounting for almost 80% of it. Sanchez/Luzardo/Wheeler and their closer Duran.

[ILMindState]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

The other reason I could see Shota going #3 in the divisional round is he probably won’t pitch against the Brewers. He is pretty bad against them. So use him 3rd and then when he comes up again, maybe it is Peterson. For that matter, if the Cubs win the first game, maybe Shota goes second. Would leave a possibility of Gausman and Boyd going the first two against Milwaukee. 

I mean anything can happen but we just do not match up well against the Brewers. I think it's because our pitching doesn't strike people out. Maybe the BAPIP gods could bless us for 5 games but I'm just sick of seeing that team beat us by weak grounders and pop-ups while we smash balls that go right at defenders or die at the warning track. Feels like losing to another team is a more honorable death. 

 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

I was thinking Palencia is cooked and should be shut down, appears, lately, he's improved.  Maybe, just maybe, he'll have a run of effectiveness in the coming weeks?  I figure Thornton and Theilbar are out of the PS picture, guessing Rolison is set.  Webb is a big concern, going into the all star break and slightly after it wasn't he very effective and reliable?  For the past month or so, he's consistently hung the change-up, might he be able to get back to where he was at the all star break?

Yeah I think the general message here is something that's giving me hope. Relievers are a fickle bunch. Maybe it's finding a grip or an arm slot, maybe it's rest, maybe it's pure BABIP/sequencing/dumb baseball luck. But Zeferjahn looked unpitchable right around the Chourio home run....and he's pitched 5 1/3 innings with 1 run and a 2.53 FIP since then. 

Not me saying that they are or could be good, or even average. But it doesn't seem to take much for a guy to put together a couple 'whoa' appearances. Just got to trust Counsell to keep cycling the guys and find who it's going to be in 12 days.

[mul21]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

The Phillies are interesting in that their 2 best hitters (Schwarber and Harper) are LHB, but Schwarber is pretty split neutral and then most of their other (bad hitters) are better against LHP, to the extent that they are 16th in wRC against LHP vs 28th in wRC against RHP. Maybe it was just me, but when I think Phillies offense I think those two, and I was trying to figure out how to stack LHPs while still using our top 2 starters. But really, I think it's pretty straightforward. Holmes then Gausman pretty normally, with Peterson and Rolison getting the top of their order at least once, and then Shota sees 12 guys and has a short leash from there. 

Interesting.  I hadn't really looked but I was operating under the assumption they were markedly worse against LHP.  That definitely changes how I'd approach the rotation against them.  I'd almost consider using Peterson as an opener in the Gausman game based on some of his 1st inning struggles to let him get settled against some of their worse hitters before he has to get geared up to face Schwarber and Harper.

[ILMindState]

6 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I was thinking Palencia is cooked and should be shut down, appears, lately, he's improved.  Maybe, just maybe, he'll have a run of effectiveness in the coming weeks?  I figure Thornton and Theilbar are out of the PS picture, guessing Rolison is set.  Webb is a big concern, going into the all star break and slightly after it wasn't he very effective and reliable?  For the past month or so, he's consistently hung the change-up, might he be able to get back to where he was at the all star break?

At this point I'd rather they just keep putting Webb, Palencia, Cabrera, and whichever lefty out in high pressure situations amd see if someone figures ut out before the season ends. That to me is more important than playoff seeding. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Interesting.  I hadn't really looked but I was operating under the assumption they were markedly worse against LHP.  That definitely changes how I'd approach the rotation against them.  I'd almost consider using Peterson as an opener in the Gausman game based on some of his 1st inning struggles to let him get settled against some of their worse hitters before he has to get geared up to face Schwarber and Harper.

Opener isn't a bad idea. Probably depends on how much they trust Thielbar. Rolison has been very good against LHB, Thielbar much more of a mixed bag/tightrope act. I just wouldn't want to be left with one reliable LHP in the event we need to go to the pen in like, the 5th inning. 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

It's four guys that are accounting for almost 80% of it. Sanchez/Luzardo/Wheeler and their closer Duran.

And two of those starters the Cubs hit hard. Didn’t face wheeler. 

[soccer10k]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t understand how the Phillies can have a pitching WAR of 29 and the Cubs team WAR is less than 2, while the Phillies have given up 24 less runs than the Cubs. To me, that means WAR is a flawed way to determine how many runs a team will give up. I get it as a tool to evaluate a staffs potential. However, when you factor in the defense the pitcher is pitching in front of, the ability for a team to prevent runs is more important to me. The Cubs prevent runs around leave average. Just a little worse than league average. The Phillies prevent runs just a little better than league average. So why isn’t that the focus, and not pitching staffs WAR? Why is a very slightly below league average staff suddenly going to give up 6 runs a game to average offenses? They still pitch in front of that elite defense. 
Cubs offense, or ability to score runs is far greater than the Phillies. For that matter, not just the Phillies. Better than any team they meet in the post season. I break it down to the Cubs have a great offense, great defense and slightly below average at preventing runs. Staff might suck, but great defense brings it all the way up to just slightly below average. 

Someone can correct me if I’m not fully accurate, but I believe the pitching WAR removes defense. So the Cubs pitchers have a great defense behind them while the Phillies pitchers don’t. It doesn’t punish pitchers for having a bad defense behind them but it doesn’t credit them for having a good defense behind them.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t understand how the Phillies can have a pitching WAR of 29 and the Cubs team WAR is less than 2, while the Phillies have given up 24 less runs than the Cubs. To me, that means WAR is a flawed way to determine how many runs a team will give up. I get it as a tool to evaluate a staffs potential. However, when you factor in the defense the pitcher is pitching in front of, the ability for a team to prevent runs is more important to me. The Cubs prevent runs around leave average. Just a little worse than league average. The Phillies prevent runs just a little better than league average. So why isn’t that the focus, and not pitching staffs WAR? Why is a very slightly below league average staff suddenly going to give up 6 runs a game to average offenses? They still pitch in front of that elite defense. 
Cubs offense, or ability to score runs is far greater than the Phillies. For that matter, not just the Phillies. Better than any team they meet in the post season. I break it down to the Cubs have a great offense, great defense and slightly below average at preventing runs. Staff might suck, but great defense brings it all the way up to just slightly below average. 

The Cubs' defense is phenomenal, probably cutting ~0.50 or so of ERA of the pitching staff's ledger.  WAR is correctly giving that credit to Cub hitters not pitchers.  

People get snippy about "luck" but broadly the Cubs have been very unlucky in terms of giving up homeruns.  Probably to the tune of ~0.4 runs a game.  Pitching WAR does not at all attribute that to luck, it completely counts against them.  

The Cubs have broadly been getting lucky interms of sequencing to the tune of about ~0.2 runs per game.  What I mean by sequencing is if a pitcher gives up a homer and two singles in an inning, whether that inning results in 1, 2, or 3 runs.  Fangraphs pitching WAR treats this entirely as luck, but I think baseball reference might give the pitchers a little credit?

So all told the Cubs have been average in terms of run prevention, and how that translates into WAR is frankly an accounting exercise. 

[Stratos]

22 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I was thinking Palencia is cooked and should be shut down, appears, lately, he's improved.  Maybe, just maybe, he'll have a run of effectiveness in the coming weeks?  I figure Thornton and Theilbar are out of the PS picture, guessing Rolison is set.  Webb is a big concern, going into the all star break and slightly after it wasn't he very effective and reliable?  For the past month or so, he's consistently hung the change-up, might he be able to get back to where he was at the all star break?

Problem for both Palencia and Webb are splits.  Palencia has been horrible vs LHP, Webb horrible vs RHP.

Edited yesterday at 05:17 PM by Stratos

[Jason Ross]

Re: Palencia

He had a forearm issue. That's where you're going to be placing a lot of stress on anything movement related. His fastball has ticked up as he's gotten back into it and now the movement/shape is the next thing to work on. Because it wasn't running so much it was catching far too much of the plate. We've seen the run (not the rise as much) begin to pop back. The next step will hopefully slider movement. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

Kyle Harrison got blown up for 5 in 1.2 at Pittsburgh today. You absolutely love to see it. 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs' defense is phenomenal, probably cutting ~0.50 or so of ERA of the pitching staff's ledger.  WAR is correctly giving that credit to Cub hitters not pitchers.  

People get snippy about "luck" but broadly the Cubs have been very unlucky in terms of giving up homeruns.  Probably to the tune of ~0.4 runs a game.  Pitching WAR does not at all attribute that to luck, it completely counts against them.  

The Cubs have broadly been getting lucky interms of sequencing to the tune of about ~0.2 runs per game.  What I mean by sequencing is if a pitcher gives up a homer and two singles in an inning, whether that inning results in 1, 2, or 3 runs.  Fangraphs pitching WAR treats this entirely as luck, but I think baseball reference might give the pitchers a little credit?

So all told the Cubs have been average in terms of run prevention, and how that translates into WAR is frankly an accounting exercise. 

But in the end, in the playoffs., all I care about is run prevention. I don’t care if a teams staff has a better WAR in the playoff than the Cubs. I care about the Cubs scoring more runs then that team in at least one more game then they score more than us. If it happens because the Cubs defense saves them or the opponents defense didnt make a play, I couldn’t care less. Don’t care how we get to not allowing runs. Just want them to not allow them. 

[CubUgly]

46 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I was thinking Palencia is cooked and should be shut down, appears, lately, he's improved.  Maybe, just maybe, he'll have a run of effectiveness in the coming weeks?  I figure Thornton and Theilbar are out of the PS picture, guessing Rolison is set.  Webb is a big concern, going into the all star break and slightly after it wasn't he very effective and reliable?  For the past month or so, he's consistently hung the change-up, might he be able to get back to where he was at the all star break?

Agree on Webb, I think toward the end of his scoreless streak he was having an inordinate amount of good fortune as it seemed his swing and miss was decreasing, and he got away with more hard hit balls than the early parts of the streak, at least it seemed so to me, I don't have the stats to back that up. 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Agree on Webb, I think toward the end of his scoreless streak he was having an inordinate amount of good fortune as it seemed his swing and miss was decreasing, and he got away with more hard hit balls than the early parts of the streak, at least it seemed so to me, I don't have the stats to back that up. 

Webb's prior six appearances to his blowup streak saw him strike out eight hitters and had a zone-contact% below that of his season average and saw a swinging strike % much higher than his season average. 

So I think it's believing that was the case more than anything statistical. There was a run of four appearances between July 30th and August 5th where he only had one strikeout, but that was leading into that six game appearance streak where he struck out eight, so I don't believe it was some signal. 

More than likely what happened is that Webb is struggling with his slider, very specifically. My guess is he's tipping the pitch with his arm angle or that the arm angle is allowing this pitch to be far more hittable and sit in the zone:

The slider is an important pitch for him to get RHH out. It also makes it so you can eliminate one pitch if he's coming in obviously differently on that pitch. He throws it 22% of the time to RHH. It then allows hitters, RHH as well, to sit on the changeup much more. And the changeup is his best offering.

Notice that the xwOBA against his slider spiked first and then the others spiked after. The issue is specifically with his slider and now it's nuked the rest of his offerings.

So something happened to that pitch first and it's caused everything else to go off the rails. He straight up stopped throwing it and now the rest of his game is horsefeathered.

[gflore34]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Webb's prior six appearances to his blowup streak saw him strike out eight hitters and had a zone-contact% below that of his season average and saw a swinging strike % much higher than his season average. 

So I think it's believing that was the case more than anything statistical. There was a run of four appearances between July 30th and August 5th where he only had one strikeout, but that was leading into that six game appearance streak where he struck out eight, so I don't believe it was some signal. 

More than likely what happened is that Webb is struggling with his slider, very specifically. My guess is he's tipping the pitch with his arm angle or that the arm angle is allowing this pitch to be far more hittable and sit in the zone:

The slider is an important pitch for him to get RHH out. It also makes it so you can eliminate one pitch if he's coming in obviously differently on that pitch. He throws it 22% of the time to RHH. It then allows hitters, RHH as well, to sit on the changeup much more. And the changeup is his best offering.

Notice that the xwOBA against his slider spiked first and then the others spiked after. The issue is specifically with his slider and now it's nuked the rest of his offerings.

So something happened to that pitch first and it's caused everything else to go off the rails. 

Thanks Jason.  Assume pitching science.  If he can get the slider back on track that'll have a domino effect of goodness.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

Thanks Jason.  Assume pitching science.  If he can get the slider back on track that'll have a domino effect of goodness.

It should, yes. We've seen a trend where pitchers are more willing to go changeup to like-handed hitters in 2026, but historically this is an off-handed hitter pitch. Webb has always had more success against LHP. Erasing the slider basically means he has to resort to changeup/fastball right now. And his fastball location has gone to hell. 

[bukie]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It should, yes. We've seen a trend where pitchers are more willing to go changeup to like-handed hitters in 2026, but historically this is an off-handed hitter pitch. Webb has always had more success against LHP. Erasing the slider basically means he has to resort to changeup/fastball right now. And his fastball location has gone to hell. 

Kind of mean to refer to the outfield bleachers as hell.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, ILMindState said:

At this point I'd rather they just keep putting Webb, Palencia, Cabrera, and whichever lefty out in high pressure situations amd see if someone figures ut out before the season ends. That to me is more important than playoff seeding. 

I agree, theres 9 games left, just keep giving these guys the ball to work out whatever they need to work on to get ready for the playoffs. 

Webb, Palencia, Rolison, Zeferjahn and likely Cabrera now will be a huge key in winning if they can get the job done from innings 7-9.

Assad, Civale and whichever starter isnt used in the series will get the ball if they need to get 2+ innings in to get to the 7th or 8th inning.

The bullpen will more than likely be a huge factor in winning a series or not having a chance 

Edited yesterday at 08:32 PM by chibears55

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I agree, theres 9 games left, just keep giving these guys the ball to work out whatever they need to work on to get ready for the playoffs. 

Webb, Palencia, Rolison, and likely Cabrera now will be a huge key in winning if they can get the job done from innings 7-9.

Assad, Civale and whichever starter isnt used in the series will get the ball if they need to get 2+ innings in to get to the 7th or 8th inning.

The bullpen will more than likely be a huge factor in winning a series or not having a chance 

While I agree with what you are saying about Palencia, Rolison & Webb, why are you leaving out Zeferjahn? Did you forget about him or purposely leave him out? Also, why can’t Civale work a high pressure 7,8 or even 9th inning. Doesn’t matter who. They just need to find guys who can get the job done. 

[ILMindState]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

While I agree with what you are saying about Palencia, Rolison & Webb, why are you leaving out Zeferjahn? Did you forget about him or purposely leave him out? Also, why can’t Civale work a high pressure 7,8 or even 9th inning. Doesn’t matter who. They just need to find guys who can get the job done. 

Civale might actually be the best in the pen at the moment. I assume his role is going to be for multiple innings. I forgot to include Zeferjahn from my previous post but it looks like Couns likes him as his get out of trouble guy right now. If he can keep that role it would be huge. Might be more important than who closes. He kinda reminds me of Marmol with his delivery and the way his slider moves. 

[Jason Ross]

Good news is that Zeferjahn seems like he's settling back in. Since his bad outing against Milwaukee, he's rocking a 1.69 ERA, a 3.10 xFIP, and 6 strikeouts to 3 walks. It's small sample size and it's not "mission accomplished" but he's been much better and we can accept that type of a reliever.