Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[Jason Ross]

10 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Correct,  id rather they be able to hit homeruns because otherwise the offense usually has a hard time generating runs without it, and also it doesn't matter where they play with the the cubs pitching,  they're likely going to give up a long ball as weve seen all season. 

Are you sure about that? The Cubs have the 7th highest percentage of runs scored on home runs, this is true. But they've also scored 458 runs on the season via the not-home run. The Cubs have the third highest wRC+ in leverage situations, and the 6th best batting average. They have the 10th best wRC+ with runners in scoring position, and the most home runs with runners in scoring position. They would almost assuredly score less runs via the home run if they just stopped hitting so many damn home runs with runners in scoring position...but that's not a bad thing. 

Part of the issue here is a self fulfilling prophecy. The Cubs have a high percentage of runs scored on home runs, but that's also because they lead the league in home runs. The Brewers score a lot of runs without home runs because they are second to last in home runs. 

If you want to see a team who struggles to score without home runs, look at the Yankees. The Yankees have scored 697 runs on the season and have hit the second most home runs on the year (just two behind the Cubs). They have scored 363 runs via not-home run. The Cubs have scored almost 100 runs more than the Yankees via not home runs even though they have only hit two more dingers. That's a team with an issue. 

I know, there have been some ugly graphics earlier in the year about the Cubs left on base numbers (because the Cubs get on base so often) and some data where they may struggle at times to get runner in from third with less than two outs, but we're becoming single issue voters if that's going to be where we plant out flag (here's the thing; there's so much data that you can almost always find a single data point to support any side if you look for it). The Cubs are a dynamic offense and hit a lot of home runs, but they just score a lot on their own.

It's a feature. It's not a bug.  

[Geographyhater8888]

48 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Are you sure about that? The Cubs have the 7th highest percentage of runs scored on home runs, this is true. But they've also scored 458 runs on the season via the not-home run. The Cubs have the third highest wRC+ in leverage situations, and the 6th best batting average. They have the 10th best wRC+ with runners in scoring position, and the most home runs with runners in scoring position. They would almost assuredly score less runs via the home run if they just stopped hitting so many damn home runs with runners in scoring position...but that's not a bad thing. 

Part of the issue here is a self fulfilling prophecy. The Cubs have a high percentage of runs scored on home runs, but that's also because they lead the league in home runs. The Brewers score a lot of runs without home runs because they are second to last in home runs. 

If you want to see a team who struggles to score without home runs, look at the Yankees. The Yankees have scored 697 runs on the season and have hit the second most home runs on the year (just two behind the Cubs). They have scored 363 runs via not-home run. The Cubs have scored almost 100 runs more than the Yankees via not home runs even though they have only hit two more dingers. That's a team with an issue. 

I know, there have been some ugly graphics earlier in the year about the Cubs left on base numbers (because the Cubs get on base so often) and some data where they may struggle at times to get runner in from third with less than two outs, but we're becoming single issue voters if that's going to be where we plant out flag (here's the thing; there's so much data that you can almost always find a single data point to support any side if you look for it). The Cubs are a dynamic offense and hit a lot of home runs, but they just score a lot on their own.

It's a feature. It's not a bug.  

Well that makes me feel better about our pitching staff, since teams are heavily reliant on hitting home runs to score on them.

[gflore34]

49 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Are you sure about that? The Cubs have the 7th highest percentage of runs scored on home runs, this is true. But they've also scored 458 runs on the season via the not-home run. The Cubs have the third highest wRC+ in leverage situations, and the 6th best batting average. They have the 10th best wRC+ with runners in scoring position, and the most home runs with runners in scoring position. They would almost assuredly score less runs via the home run if they just stopped hitting so many damn home runs with runners in scoring position...but that's not a bad thing. 

Part of the issue here is a self fulfilling prophecy. The Cubs have a high percentage of runs scored on home runs, but that's also because they lead the league in home runs. The Brewers score a lot of runs without home runs because they are second to last in home runs. 

If you want to see a team who struggles to score without home runs, look at the Yankees. The Yankees have scored 697 runs on the season and have hit the second most home runs on the year (just two behind the Cubs). They have scored 363 runs via not-home run. The Cubs have scored almost 100 runs more than the Yankees via not home runs even though they have only hit two more dingers. That's a team with an issue. 

I know, there have been some ugly graphics earlier in the year about the Cubs left on base numbers (because the Cubs get on base so often) and some data where they may struggle at times to get runner in from third with less than two outs, but we're becoming single issue voters if that's going to be where we plant out flag (here's the thing; there's so much data that you can almost always find a single data point to support any side if you look for it). The Cubs are a dynamic offense and hit a lot of home runs, but they just score a lot on their own.

It's a feature. It's not a bug.  

This is akin to what I thought about the other day while hearing our old friend, Bob Brenly (I'm sorry, he sometimes sounds like a idiot with his homer-ism), blabbing about the Diamondbacks leading all of baseball in comeback wins.  This is true because the Diamondbacks starting pitching is atrocious and has consistently put them in a hole.  Don't know if leading the league in comeback wins is necessarily a good statistic in this context. Nevertheless, the similarities are one statistic is the by product of another - Cubs amongst the league leaders in LOB(bad thing) is a result of being amongst the league leaders in base runners (good thing).  Very much like the Diamondbacks leading the league in comeback wins (good thing) is a result of terrible starting pitching (bad thing).

[ILMindState]

15 hours ago, Bill Fogg said:

I only want to post once so here goes : don't even suggest that J. Steele is coming back this year. Quit Overemphasizing WAR, it's the result of a rating but doesn't take into account how it is earned. Let's take a step into reality : 

#1. The Cubs have an excellent defense by any measure.

#2. The Cubs have an above average offense [ let's not get carried away ].

#3. Cubs starting pitching is okay, not great but good enough in the right matchups combined with their offense to win a World Series. 

#4. Please note that I wrote good enough to win a World Series not that they will. There are a lot of factors including luck that the winning team needs.

#5 The Cubs bullpen is their most glaring weakness, the way baseball is played in the playoffs places a heavy emphasis on a quality bullpen. The Padres are the most dangerous team after the Brewers & Dodgers because of their bullpen. 

#6 In the playoffs teams will seldom utilize more than their top 3 starters or top setup men and normal closer. Pitchers #9-13 are basically unimportant when it comes to the playoffs.

#7. Long term statistical analysis shows that left-handed pitching is more effective against left-handed hitting and vice versa with righties. Statistical anomalies for a season or so may occur but in the long run almost all managers go with the long term analysis.

#8. With regards to Reality #7 : The Cubs 5 starting pitchers have not separated themselves very far by performance. The selection of who to start should come down to the matchup of who they play. If it's the Phillies it should be Boyd, Holmes, and Imanaga. The Philly lineup is predominately left handed: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh are their most dangerous hitters. It is probably better to throw a righty in Game #2 in case of a game #3. Using 3 lefty starters in a row could increase the Phillies effectiveness against lefties in Game #3. I selected the above 3 starters because I think that Peterson will probably be better suited in relief than Imanaga. Rolliston will be used frequently and Caleb T.  will probably be used also. Zefferjahn, Palencia, Civale, and Thornton will be the most used right handers. Neither Assad or Rea should be used unless it's a blowout or a starter leaves early.   

#8  Anyone that suggests that Webb can/will get back on track for the playoffs is dreaming.      

Hate to break it to you, but you have 10 posts.