Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[bukie]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

This isn't necessarily a counter, but am I reading it right that there have been 3 games since August 21st where the Cubs didn't have a lead?

That is correct, and why stats like these can be misleading, because you have to have a lead to blow it.

[bukie]

I don't think a lot of folks appreciate how good the Cubs have been offensively and defensively.

For example, they are so far ahead of the field right now in combined team fWAR that if you took PCA out of the equation entirely, they would still lead the league in fWAR.

[Geographyhater8888]

The SHTH after Swanson’s injury. The 2 could be related.

Edited 35 minutes ago by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, bukie said:

I don't think a lot of folks appreciate how good the Cubs have been offensively and defensively.

For example, they are so far ahead of the field right now in combined team fWAR that if you took PCA out of the equation entirely, they would still lead the league in fWAR.

Bregman sitting at 88 RBI and Suzuki at 81, don't think Bregman will get to 100 but, 90+ is almost certainly going to happen.  Suzuki getting to 90 would be great as well.

[ILMindState]

10 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Our bullpen is not just bad, it’s more that recently it has been the worst in baseball. And what’s even worse is we don’t have one trustworthy person to forecast into high leverage playoff situations.  

If the bullpen was just simply "bad but at least we have 1 guy" then I'd feel a little more confident in the playoffs. 2016 was basically all Chapmam once Strop and Rondon got hurt. But we're worst in the majors/giving up HRs at a near historic rate type of bad. It could be enough to get past the Phillies but you're not gonna get past the Brewers and or Dodgers with that. Brewers completely destroy our pitching. ATL on the road and then Dodgers in 5 might actually be a better match up for us. It's probably time to start giving PCA, Bregman, Suzuki, and Nico some rest whether it's DH or a day off. Need them fresh for the playoffs. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

If the bullpen could just improve to bad instead of historically bad that would be a game changer. 

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep. They are good. The sad part of this is, even good, winning a WS is hard. Most likely they won’t. And when they won’t the naysayers will be all over it about how they knew they couldn’t win because of…… pick the reason.
I have seen the excuse that when they get to the playoffs they won’t hit good pitching. Excuse 1 ready to go.

The pen is so bad they can’t hold a lead. Excuse 2, ready.

No starting pitching. Excuse 3 also ready.

CC is a terrible manager and cost the Cubs the series. Excuse #4
In the end, whatever goes wrong will be what the naysayers KNEW all along. But the reality is they can win. But so can several other teams. Which is why it is hard to win a WS. 

 

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

99.9% playoff odds. Though the goalposts have apparently moved from 'we're going to miss the playoffs' to 'we can't beat either of the two best teams in baseball in the NLDS' so that's fun. The important thing is to never admit they're good. 

You guys are doing the “well people are saying” thing now. Look hard enough (and sometimes you don’t have to look that hard) and you can find people who believe and say just about anything. 

I can only speak for myself, by my belief on the Cubs comes with the caveat of “baseball gonna baseball” sometimes. My belief is that with our pitching staff, even with how good the position players are, it’s going to be really hard to win 4 playoff rounds in a row. I don’t buy the pitching wins championships thing. But I think you need balance. You’re going to have to win games in different ways in the playoffs and overall, we have one way to win a game, which is to score a bunch of runs. Does that mean we can’t or won’t win a 1-0 or 2-1 game? Or that our pitching will give up 6 runs every game? Of course not. Want to discount the Phillies for the same reason? That’s fine! If the Phillies got brought up because of me, I just named the team we’re most likely to play in the WC round, not because I’m terrified of the Phillies. 

[Derwood]

Shota in 3 starts in September: 18 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 16 K's, 2 BB, 4 ER, 2.00 ERA

[UMFan83]

Not that we're worried about simply making the playoffs anymore, but for the first time (I believe) all season, the Cubs have entered the day with 99.9% playoff odds per fangraphs.  It was 99.8% ~2 weeks ago, dipped to around 96% and slowly has been making its way back up.

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Shota in 3 starts in September: 18 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 16 K's, 2 BB, 4 ER, 2.00 ERA

He was sliding into the same pattern as last season - effective for bit then flowed into un-pitchable by the PS.  Good to see him turning around.

[Derwood]

Just now, gflore34 said:

He was sliding into the same pattern as last season - effective for bit then flowed into un-pitchable by the PS.  Good to see him turning around.

Maybe he really was tipping his pitches and the coaching staff has figured out how to prevent it

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

giving up HRs at a near historic rate type of bad

I'm not totally sure how this whole 'most games with a home run given up' thing caught traction. It's a really hard stat to track down in terms of historic data, but I don't doubt whatever has been thrown out there (though if someone says it was AI then I will absolutely doubt it). But just to put a number on this, the Cubs are on pace to give up the 19th most home runs as a team since 2000. Certainly terrible, but I wouldn't call it 'historic' in the way that, say, the offense or PCA is performing. 

[bukie]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Not that we're worried about simply making the playoffs anymore, but for the first time (I believe) all season, the Cubs have entered the day with 99.9% playoff odds per fangraphs.  It was 99.8% ~2 weeks ago, dipped to around 96% and slowly has been making its way back up.

Or in simpler terms, they were never in danger of missing the playoffs.

[bukie]

One other thing to note about the playoffs is that pitching gets optimized for everyone, with more days off between games and a generally spaced out schedule. If you can find 4 good starters and 4 good relievers, that should pretty much carry you through the postseason barring injuries.

So what do the Cubs have? Well, I think they have the 4 good starters nailed down in Gausman, Holmes, Boyd and Imanaga. Relievers are a bit trickier, but I think their most reliable relievers of late have been Rollison, Zeferjahn, Civale, and then find one between Palencia, Webb, Cabrera, Peterson, Assad, Rea, or a late Steele surprise.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

 

You guys are doing the “well people are saying” thing now. Look hard enough (and sometimes you don’t have to look that hard) and you can find people who believe and say just about anything. 

I can only speak for myself, by my belief on the Cubs comes with the caveat of “baseball gonna baseball” sometimes. My belief is that with our pitching staff, even with how good the position players are, it’s going to be really hard to win 4 playoff rounds in a row. I don’t buy the pitching wins championships thing. But I think you need balance. You’re going to have to win games in different ways in the playoffs and overall, we have one way to win a game, which is to score a bunch of runs. Does that mean we can’t or won’t win a 1-0 or 2-1 game? Or that our pitching will give up 6 runs every game? Of course not. Want to discount the Phillies for the same reason? That’s fine! If the Phillies got brought up because of me, I just named the team we’re most likely to play in the WC round, not because I’m terrified of the Phillies. 

This is all fair. Probably painting with a broad brush, though I was particularly annoyed yesterday as we were watching (another) historic PCA performance, scoring a bunch of runs, and, most importantly to me, winning a three game series against a really good NL East team. Like....that was it, that was the path. And yet we threw Webb into a clearly low leverage position to try and get him right, he gave up a couple runs, and it was just endless 'well obviously this can't be successful' as I'm staring at a 5 run lead in the scorebug. 

We've given up more than 4 runs once in the last six games. The Brewers in the 7 games against us averaged a little under 6 runs, we held them to 4 or less 4 of the 7 times. The Brewers are really good, it's going to be tough if we play them. The Phillies aren't. 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm not totally sure how this whole 'most games with a home run given up' thing caught traction. It's a really hard stat to track down in terms of historic data, but I don't doubt whatever has been thrown out there (though if someone says it was AI then I will absolutely doubt it). But just to put a number on this, the Cubs are on pace to give up the 19th most home runs as a team since 2000. Certainly terrible, but I wouldn't call it 'historic' in the way that, say, the offense or PCA is performing. 

Also re: homeruns there's almost certainly a bit of park factor going on.  It's not an accident that the hitting is lapping the field (in a good way) at the same exact time and the pitching is lapping the field (in a bad way).

[macarthur31]

Cubs got 9 games left to optimize the lineup, starters and bullpen.  For me, that's:

• Get Dansby enough reps so he's back to being the elite shortstop and tough 8/9 hitter.
• Get Busch closer to May (.300/.446/.510) rather than what September has been so far: (.224/.328/.408)
• Sort out the WC-round rotation.  Shota seems to be on "the podium" with his recent run of 4ER over 3 starts;  Is it Gausman, Holmes, Shota?  Can Boyd or Peterson force themselves into the picture?
• Get Seiya started up again - he's been .157/.328/.234 in September (Oy.), but in August he was .303/397/.560 (Yay.)
• Get Zef, Danny and Webb trending in the right direction.  
• See if Cabrera is up for doing a cover version of Sasaki '25 Playoffs.
• Who is going to be the key pen lefty - Rolison?  Theils?  (Death is not an option.)
• Get enough ABs for Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez to stay sharp.
• Is it still Carson then Miggy in the catching platoon?  In terms of September Batting:  Carson is .237/.275/.289 in 40 PA while Miggy is .364/429/.727 in 16 PA

 

In terms of what Couns hopes to maintain:

• PCA as MVP
• Bregs as the Pippen to PCA's Jordan
• Happ/Taylor LF Platoon