Spring Training games thread

[Bertz]

You're better off arguing with a lamp post

[Neuby]

Fangraphs is the farmers almanac of resources when it comes to predicting wins.

[Stratos]

They show a bunch of regression from our offense and pitching.  I think we did over-achieve on both last year

[Bertz]

Would seem to indicate either Kingery made the team or they're about to make a small trade

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

They show a bunch of regression from our offense and pitching.  I think we did over-achieve on both last year

Maybe, but I also think they are better this year than last. Added another solid starting pitcher, Steele should be back and I think Bregman and Mo will be as good as Shaw and Tucker. Plus they improved the bench. So assuming some regression I still see them as a 90 win team. And if some guys actually get better (Busch, PCA, Brown, Shaw and Amaya to name a few) they could win 93-94 games. 

[Radar3454]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Would seem to indicate either Kingery made the team or they're about to make a small trade

I could see a small trade, but I'd be shocked if Kingery makes the team. I'm think Shaw is the backup for infield (hopefully rarely needed) and Shaw and Carlson for outfield. I don't want to see Conforto use his glove.

[chibears55]

Cubs and PCA agree to long extension

[Post Count Padder]

7 minutes ago, Radar3454 said:

I could see a small trade, but I'd be shocked if Kingery makes the team. I'm think Shaw is the backup for infield (hopefully rarely needed) and Shaw and Carlson for outfield. I don't want to see Conforto use his glove.

Yeah I think this is it. Carlson makes the team. I don't think Kingery was a serious finalist. 

[chopsx9]

6 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The point of the projected win totals is not to most accurately predict everyone's win totals.  It’s an easier to understand representation of team quality that is backed by the most accurate individual projections at our disposal.  

I think this is a good summation.  The actual win totals are nonsense.  You are dealing with a pretty small universe of potential outcomes.  A stopped clock is right twice a day and you certainly can filter in some advanced stats but all these offseason projections really are is something to banter about while waiting for the real action to start.

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, CubinNY said:

 

The Cubs won the division in 2007 with 85 wins. The last time a team had less than that and won was 1997. 

It’s beside the point but The last time a team won their division with less wins was the following year when the Dodgers won the west with 84 wins. The team that swept the cubs in the LDS. 
 

The Padres won the west with 82 wins in 2005, less than the 06 cardinals and both less than that Astros team. 

Edited March 24 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Ben Brown replacing both Brad Kellers role and production as a late innings guy is a nice thought.

Is it fair to be concerned that Happ and Swanson posting their lowest fWARs since 2021 is age related?

Edited March 24 by Geographyhater8888

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Is it fair to be concerned that Happ and Swanson posting their lowest fWARs since 2021 is age related?

I don't really see anything in the statcast metrics to be concerned about last year for either of them.  For Happ maybe he lost a few HR in the Wrigley wind, and maybe Shaw's excellent glove at 3B cost Swanson some outs at SS.  Who knows.

This season is anyone's guess but I'm not too concerned for them  A lot more question marks in the rotation IMO and I think those answers will probably determine how well the season goes.

[Stratos]

The projections are always wrong because with 26 players plus guys in the minors etc there's a lot of variance that can happen via injuries, performance, luck etc.  FG is saying 84 wins is the most likely outcome but that can vary by something like +/- 10 wins or whatever if a lot goes right or wrong and everything in- between.

[Geographyhater8888]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

I don't really see anything in the statcast metrics to be concerned about last year for either of them.  For Happ maybe he lost a few HR in the Wrigley wind, and maybe Shaw's excellent glove at 3B cost Swanson some outs at SS.  Who knows.

This season is anyone's guess but I'm not too concerned for them  A lot more question marks in the rotation IMO and I think those answers will probably determine how well the season goes.

Happ was one home run shy of his career high at 25. His baserunning and speed have declined. His rate stats were around where they usually are.

The rotation is more talented, healthier and deeper than opening day of 2025 IMO. My optimism is subdued but I’d rather have some uncertainty regarding whether or not Horton can develop into an ace, Cabrera can start healthy and if Steele can turn back the clock to 2023 then whether the offense can maintain their 6 runs/game pace because we’re relying on pitchers like Shota and Taillon who’ll get shelled if they miss in the zone vs playoff caliber offenses.

A lot of uncertainty and hope but I had had no faith in or hope in the rotation last year.

Edited March 24 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe, but I also think they are better this year than last. Added another solid starting pitcher, Steele should be back and I think Bregman and Mo will be as good as Shaw and Tucker. Plus they improved the bench. So assuming some regression I still see them as a 90 win team. And if some guys actually get better (Busch, PCA, Brown, Shaw and Amaya to name a few) they could win 93-94 games. 

Suzuki had a down year offensively too thanks to his second half skid. His OPS dipped down to 804 from 842 and 848 from 23-24. People overlook that because he hit 32 homers.

 

Edited March 24 by Geographyhater8888

[BigbadB]

Who is resting Busch at 1b? 

Any word on Tyler Austin's injury? 

[Bertz]

57 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Who is resting Busch at 1b? 

Any word on Tyler Austin's injury? 

One of the catchers if it's just a random day off, Long gets called up if there is an injury.

All they said about Austin is "months" for his knee to recover so I'm assuming June or July.  That said with adding the three bench guys to the roster an Austin 60 Day IL move is an obvious lever to pull, so if they don't it says he's expected back before Memorial Day.

[CubinNY]

15 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The point of the projected win totals is not to most accurately predict everyone's win totals.  

luz

[javy knows my name]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

luz

lumière 

[Bertz]

 

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Last game, finally

Edited March 24 by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Bertz]

PCA leading off to get that standing ovation, I see you Craig

[JBears79]

Got high hopes for Carlson this year. Hoping he pans out. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Bregman got replaced by Kingery after hitting a HR in the 1st inning. Guess they just want to look at Kingery at 3B?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Man if Bregman can just stay healthy and give us 140-150 games, be ready for October. Hell of a ST.