Spring Training games thread

[chibears55]

11 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Why can’t the Cubs be an elite scrimmage team like the Bears?

This ST is weird because of WBC and Cubs having multiple regulars playing in it.

 

So, most of their games are played by guys that will either be on their bench, AAA, or released soon.

 

Rojas, Kingery, Shaw, McCormick, Carlson, Triantos, Alcantara all lead the Cubs with 30-45 AB this spring.

 

It almost like Counsell was holding a ST tryout for the bench lol

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Neuby said:

Really hope Brown throwing in relief yesterday was schedule related. Keep him in Iowa working on that Sinker and Kickchange they need him in the bullpen... yet.

They might tap Rea first before Brown if they need another SP. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://tjstats.ca/player/yacksel-r-os-605441/

Adam Ottavino mentioned this guy as a sleeper candidate for the pen. Apparently his stuff in the WBC looked really good.

[Geographyhater8888]

There’s 3 open spots in the rotation after the season.. You absolutely leave Brown in Iowa to polish his 2 seam-sinker and changeup until he’s needed on the ML roster. 

Edited March 20 by Geographyhater8888

[Bull]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

There’s 3 open spots in the rotation after the season.. You absolutely leave Brown in Iowa to polish his 2 seam-sinker and changeup until he’s needed on the ML roster. 

What are the chances Taillon starts the season at extended spring training and Brown is up until Steele returns or Taillon finds his stuff?

Edited March 20 by Bull

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

What are the chances Taillon starts the season at extended spring training and Brown is up until Steele returns or Taillon finds his stuff?

There’s probably 40 posters who would give you a better answer than me. I’d be surprised if that happens though. They’d probably swap him with Rae if things are catastrophically bad as a plan A, regardless of Steeles return date. Counsel doesn’t make decisions on impulse. 

Edited March 20 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

My read on Taillon is that he's done more than enough in his career and with the Cubs to justify a spot in the starting rotation on opening day. But he's also probably shortened his rope a good amount with what's been going on, which has clearly gone beyond just the normal 'results don't matter in ST' outlook. The one year, $16m he has left is a sunk cost at this point. If he turns it around, he's too valuable to try and trade. If he doesn't, you say thank you and show him the door and let him try to catch on elsewhere. But we're probably a couple months away from that conversation at the earliest. 

[squally1313]

Fangraphs Positional Power Rankings so far for the Cubs:

• Catcher: 16th
• 1st: 7th
• 2nd: 2nd
• SS: 13th
• 3rd: 6th
• LF: 5th
• CF: 2nd
• RF: 8th

Assume we're going to not fare as well the rest of the way, but pretty elite thus far.  

[Bertz]

I'd guess there's a slim chance that they IL Taillon.  There was some allusion to something with his lower body.  I took it as mechanics but it might be a mild injury.

But yeah I think you have to keep the leash short.  The main reason for hoarding all this SP depth is to protect from injury.  But a close second is to avoid another Kyle Hendricks situation.

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Fangraphs Positional Power Rankings so far for the Cubs:

• Catcher: 16th
• 1st: 7th
• 2nd: 2nd
• SS: 13th
• 3rd: 6th
• LF: 5th
• CF: 2nd
• RF: 8th

Assume we're going to not fare as well the rest of the way, but pretty elite thus far.  

I assume you're talking about SP and RP?

[Geographyhater8888]

There’s legitimate upside in the rotation that hasn’t existed since the rebuild. The rotation can definitely beat projections  depending on health. 

Edited March 20 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

34 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I assume you're talking about SP and RP?

yes. Can't imagine Ballesteros ranking too high at DH either, though obviously all positions are not created equally.

24 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

There’s legitimate upside in the rotation that hasn’t existed since the rebuild. The rotation can definitely beat projections  depending on health. 

Maybe? Like, I see the point. But also, we have a 35, a 34, and a 32 year old in the rotation right now. Things could go well, sure. Steele, Wiggins, etc. But also think when we're inevitably ranked like, 21st or whatever, I'll largely agree that there are a lot of other teams with better pitchers. 

[Geographyhater8888]

7 hours ago, squally1313 said:

yes. Can't imagine Ballesteros ranking too high at DH either, though obviously all positions are not created equally.

Maybe? Like, I see the point. But also, we have a 35, a 34, and a 32 year old in the rotation right now. Things could go well, sure. Steele, Wiggins, etc. But also think when we're inevitably ranked like, 21st or whatever, I'll largely agree that there are a lot of other teams with better pitchers. 

My hope is that Cabrera/Horton/Steele/maybe Boyd can anchor the top 4 spots in the rotation so Shota and Tailon won’t be counted on like years past. There’s still a lot of uncertainty obviously, but ideally their success doesn’t hinge on 2 pitchers who are prone to blowup outings that rely on beating FIP who get shelled when they miss in the zone, if healthy.

Edited March 20 by Geographyhater8888

[We Got The Whole 9]

Well hope in 1 hand and you know what in the other

[Radar3454]

53 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

yes. Can't imagine Ballesteros ranking too high at DH either, though obviously all positions are not created equally.

 

There are some studs at DH, but a lot of chumps as well. MoBaller would be top 10 for me. I have high expectations for him though. Looking forward to see the final rankings.

[squally1313]

45 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

My hope is that Cabrera/Horton/Steele/maybe Boyd can anchor the top 4 spots in the rotation so Shota and Tailon won’t be counted on like years past. There’s still a lot of uncertainty obviously, but ideally their success doesn’t hinge on 2 pitchers who are prone to blowup outings and beating FIP with hittable stuff if they’re at full health.

We have a lot of average to good pitchers. But here are the ZIPs FIP projections for potential Cubs starters (league average last year for starters was 4.21).

• Steele 3.57
• Brown 3.69
• Boyd 3.88
• Cabrera 3.96
• Wicks 4.02
• Horton 4.06
• Shota 4.36
• Taillon 4.45

You can quibble with individual projections. I'm setting aside defense for the moment because that helps any pitcher. The good is that we have 6 pitchers projected to be above average. The bad is that in our opening day rotation, Matt Boyd is our best pitcher, and is the 66th best projected starter in baseball. 

Ultimately, I get the optimism. But the difference between the Cubs offense looking really good in those projections and the Cubs pitching (likely) not looking as well is because the offense is filled with players who have put up sustainable performances, and then at the staff level we have 3 guys older than anyone in our lineup and 3 guys who haven't actually done it at the MLB level yet. 

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Fangraphs Positional Power Rankings so far for the Cubs:

• Catcher: 16th
• 1st: 7th
• 2nd: 2nd
• SS: 13th
• 3rd: 6th
• LF: 5th
• CF: 2nd
• RF: 8th

Assume we're going to not fare as well the rest of the way, but pretty elite thus far.  

Enjoy it while you can because there's a good chance we might let our 2B, LF, and RF walk after this season.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

We have a lot of average to good pitchers. But here are the ZIPs FIP projections for potential Cubs starters (league average last year for starters was 4.21).

• Steele 3.57
• Brown 3.69
• Boyd 3.88
• Cabrera 3.96
• Wicks 4.02
• Horton 4.06
• Shota 4.36
• Taillon 4.45

You can quibble with individual projections. I'm setting aside defense for the moment because that helps any pitcher. The good is that we have 6 pitchers projected to be above average. The bad is that in our opening day rotation, Matt Boyd is our best pitcher, and is the 66th best projected starter in baseball. 

Ultimately, I get the optimism. But the difference between the Cubs offense looking really good in those projections and the Cubs pitching (likely) not looking as well is because the offense is filled with players who have put up sustainable performances, and then at the staff level we have 3 guys older than anyone in our lineup and 3 guys who haven't actually done it at the MLB level yet. 

Yeah the rotation is weird because with one notable exception I feel good about every SP we have, but on the other it's relatively easy to take the under on every single one of them individually.

It won't be as extreme but there's an extent to where it's reminiscent of the bullpen builds from the last few years.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah the rotation is weird because with one notable exception I feel good about every SP we have, but on the other it's relatively easy to take the under on every single one of them individually.

It won't be as extreme but there's an extent to where it's reminiscent of the bullpen builds from the last few years.

My meatball-y take is that it's a good regular season approach/staff (league average pitching with this offense and defense will win you plenty of games, and they've put in enough failsafes to avoid having to use below average pitching) but I would hate having to put together an order for a 3 or 5 game playoff. There's plenty of time for someone or someones to turn into top level pitchers between now and September, but right now there's not an ace by sense.

Edited March 20 by squally1313

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Enjoy it while you can because there's a good chance we might let our 2B, LF, and RF walk after this season.

On the hand, I really like this core (especially those three guys), and from a fan perspective it will be tough to see them leave. On the other hand, in the case of a mass exodus we have roughly $150m ($244m for luxury tax purposes right now for 2026, $87m committed to next year) to replace those three, probably 2 slots in the rotation, and the bullpen, so plenty of bullets.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Use all the money for Skubal

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

My meatball-y take is that it's a good regular season approach/staff (league average pitching with this offense and defense will win you plenty of games, and they've put in enough failsafes to avoid having to use below average pitching) but I would hate having to put together an order for a 3 or 5 game playoff. There's plenty of time for someone or someones to turn into top level pitchers between now and September, but right now there's not an ace by sense.

Yeah this point can be taken too far but broadly I think depth gets you to the playoffs and impact wins once you're there.

I'm (foolishly?) optimistic that the simple numbers game will work out though.  At least one of the Boyd/Shota/Steele trio and at least one of the Cabrera/Horton/Brown/Wiggins quartet will have me feeling good, even if I couldn't tell you for sure today which ones.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

On the hand, I really like this core (especially those three guys), and from a fan perspective it will be tough to see them leave. On the other hand, in the case of a mass exodus we have roughly $150m ($244m for luxury tax purposes right now for 2026, $87m committed to next year) to replace those three, probably 2 slots in the rotation, and the bullpen, so plenty of bullets.

Besides our guys and Jazz Chisholm the FA class stinks on the position side next offseason.  Seiya and Happ are the best OF that will be available so they won't be replaced 1:1 in FA.

We know there's no chance they pay for Skubal. Maybe they'd sign someone like Peralta.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Besides our guys and Jazz Chisholm the FA class stinks on the position side next offseason.  Seiya and Happ are the best OF that will be available so they won't be replaced 1:1 in FA.

We know there's no chance they pay for Skubal. Maybe they'd sign someone like Peralta.

That's certainly a consideration, but we've also got a 7 month head start (and hopefully some goodwill built up). They're not going to sign Bregman and run a $150m payroll next year. There's a little depth behind Skubal from what I can tell looking very quickly on the pitching front. I'd probably like them to lock in either Happ or Hoerner to an extension, and there's like 12 variables on which one I'd prefer. I don't know if you want to lock in 33 year old Suzuki, but also not sure anyone else does either, so might be more reasonable than you'd think.

[mk49]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Besides our guys and Jazz Chisholm the FA class stinks on the position side next offseason.  Seiya and Happ are the best OF that will be available so they won't be replaced 1:1 in FA.

Yes, this is a big problem.  That's why I want to keep one of them (+Nico).

Edited March 20 by mk49