Cerami: Cubs Finalizing Edward Cabrera Trade

[Gjfificifjdej]

29 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If you ignore the red flags, sure.

But hey, I'm the guy last year who said Steele was on Tommy John watch and people here dogged me for that before he went under the knife like a week later.

I couldn't care less about temporary dopamine hits from shiny new toys, I want to the Cubs to be the best team in the MLB.   The best team in the AL just added a horse in Dylan Cease who should easily go deep into Oct and we added Upside McGee held together with duct tape and projected for less WAR than Imanaga.  I do like the upside though.

I am very glad they got a prime age player and not some 37 year old ready to decline-implode.

Anyways, this is more about Tom than Jed.  I think Jed is doing the best that can be expected, I try to never download my Tom-hate on him.

At this point you gotta think signing an OF in FA is strongly on the table. No idea how they replace Happ+Seiya next year.  Extending one or both another 4ish years isn't the ideal but possible, or another trade next winter.  Luckily corner OF/DH are the easiest to replace.  I like Conrad but he might be more a late-2027 or 2028 ETA.

Anyways I'm cranky, have a nice day.

Being upset about negative hypotheticals must be horsefeathers exhausting 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Last offseason's "horse who should go deep into October" lasted 11 starts on his 6/210 deal before his elbow exploded.  

Last offseason's "upside McGee held together with duct tape" also missed time to injury but was healthy in October and gave the team 34 innings of 3.11 ERA en route to a title.  

The Cubs need the chance at a guy who can provide 2 strong starts in a postseason series a whole lot more than the fake certainty of banking 180 innings.

[nobull]

12 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Right now there's smear articles bring written about him saying he doesn't love baseball and that's why teams aren't willing to commit big 

His behavior was what caused that 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Being upset about negative hypotheticals must be horsefeathers exhausting 

I'm upset that so often we have to settle for someone old, half-broken, or costing our best prospects. Cabrera is projected for 2.0 WAR and a 4:00 ERA FFS..  He's got ERA variance upside and IP variance downside (arm injury).  Ya for Caissie he's fine but our big SP add is a 4:00 ERA 2.0 WAR guy with arm problems plus bringing back Gopherball McGoo.

We would have already had Cease the last several years had old man Ricketts taken the WS cash and ponied up for another good SP.  Instead he bought up the rest of the neighborhood to make even more money because he's a greedy b****h and we're all his suckers.

We need a nickname for Tom now.  How about "Runner-up Ricketts"? BAHAHA

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Last offseason's "horse who should go deep into October" lasted 11 starts on his 6/210 deal before his elbow exploded.  

Last offseason's "upside McGee held together with duct tape" also missed time to injury but was healthy in October and gave the team 34 innings of 3.11 ERA en route to a title. 

2 anecdotes prove what exactly?  That nothing is certain?  We already know that.  Projections are about probabilities, not certainties.  No projection model is making the bet that Cabrera is throwing more innings, has a lower ERA, or a higher WAR next year than Cease.

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The Cubs need the chance at a guy who can provide 2 strong starts in a postseason series a whole lot more than the fake certainty of banking 180 innings.

A serious owner would give his FO the resources to get someone who is likely to both make 2 strong starts a series and be on the field to do it.

Anyways, Jed has done his duty, so for that I'm grateful.  Go Cubs.

[thawv]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It is stops at Hernandez this is a good move. I like this. Now get a bat and let’s go….. Cabrera was my preferred choice of a pitcher in the off season so they can add a bat as a FA. 

I think that Jed made a great move here.  It also leaves money to sign Bichette and still stay under.  I'd prefer Bichette over any remaining guy out there. 

[Geographyhater8888]

If Cabrera struggles with injuries I wonder if his future is in the bullpen as a high leverage arm.

[BigbadB]

12 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

He left himself an extremely narrow path for success, even now he's still only half way there but at least there's far more options now

 

I'm not a Jed apologist or defender in general, but this was likely a playoff caliber team without the addition of Cabrera. Was it a compete with the Dodgers roster? No. The Cabrera/Ryan/Gore options were available all offseason. It's quite possible that trading for Cabrera in November/December might have been at a much higher cost like the trade deadline. 

They've been shopping for a SP and a bat all offseason and it's no secret. When those additions get made probably has a lot to do with the cost and demand. That you call it a narrow path is not even close to accurate. The Cubs have massive resources to trade for talent and a bit of cash below the LT to sign players. They could realistically go over the LT if the value dictated it. And they may still do that come the trade deadline and this team is locked into the playoffs. 

I still want Tucker and Tucker seems like he could still be an option until he isn't. If it ends up being Bichette, it's likely the brass felt it was better value. Tucker could end up being Kris Bryant for all we know.

Being a GM seems to require patience and not leaping at the first opportunity, unless you are the Dodgers and have the money to just defer everyone. Especially when Boras has his fingers in everyone's pie.

 

[Rcal10]

48 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that Jed made a great move here.  It also leaves money to sign Bichette and still stay under.  I'd prefer Bichette over any remaining guy out there. 

I don’t think they can sign Bichette and have enough money to make any moves necessary at the TDL without maybe trading Rea now. They also have Wicks, Brown and Assad as depth so they might be able to do that. However, going over by $6M or so, if they do need to add at the TDL shouldn’t be a big deal. They can get back under the following year pretty easily.  Bichette would be my first choice as well. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think they can sign Bichette and have enough money to make any moves necessary at the TDL without maybe trading Rea now. They also have Wicks, Brown and Assad as depth so they might be able to do that. However, going over by $6M or so, if they do need to add at the TDL shouldn’t be a big deal. They can get back under the following year pretty easily.  Bichette would be my first choice as well. 

Move Rae or Tailon they’ll still have Horton, Boyd, Cabrera, Shota, Tailon/Rae, Assad and Wicks. They’re also log jammed with positional depth as well. As of right now they’re beyond prepared to deal with any injuries. If a trade goes down at the deadline I’m sure they could negotiate a trade partner eating some salary. 
 

Jed doesn’t use the cash he sits on anyways because he refuses to make lopsided trades. Move whoever you can so you can add an impact bat and pray for health. 

[BigbadB]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Move Rae or Tailon they’ll still have Horton, Boyd, Cabrera, Shota, Tailon/Rae, Assad and Wicks. They’re also log jammed with positional depth as well. As of right now they’re beyond prepared to deal with any injuries. If a trade goes down at the deadline I’m sure they could negotiate a trade partner eating some salary. 
 

Jed doesn’t use the cash he sits on anyways because he refuses to make lopsided trades. Move whoever you can so you can add an impact bat and pray for health. 

I would be surprised if they dealt arms at the deadline. Did you see the playoffs last year? They were scrambling to find a fresh arm. 

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

I would be surprised if they dealt arms at the deadline. Did you see the playoffs last year? They were scrambling to find a fresh arm. 

That’s what I’m saying. How much unused $ does Jed need for possible deadline trades where costs are at a premium? The time to move someone is now if that’s what it takes to add a sexy bat.

Edited January 8 by Geographyhater8888

[CubinNY]

6 hours ago, nobull said:

His behavior was what caused that 

Who are you two talking about? 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Who are you two talking about? 

Tucker and the belief that he doesn't like baseball 

[CubinNY]

Honestly, I'm a pretty harsh critic of the Cubs' entire administrative apparatus, but this trade is exactly the type they should be making at this point in time. They have an abundance of OF prospects at the higher levels, and Hernandez is no longer a "young guy" and has been playing professional baseball for a few years. I do think he may turn out ot have a better career than OWNKC, but even if Owen becomes a star, it's still a good trade b/c it fits the Cubs needs so well. 

I don't know how anyone can be critical, but to each his own. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Tucker and the belief that he doesn't like baseball 

He cannot like baseball while playing for the Cubs as much as anywhere else. 

[Bertz]

There was an Athletic article in November where they asked if he had any regrets about not getting a better starter at the deadline.  His response was essentially "no the prices were stupid, but I should have been more aggressive last winter."  Then it talked about Jesus Luzardo for two paragraphs which tells me Jed name checked that failed deal but had to do it off the record.

So there's a good chance the team enters the season with this current absurd level of pitching depth with the idea bring that they're probably not getting a SP in July, and if they do it'll top out at a Mike Soroka swing type.

[CubUgly]

58 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s what I’m saying. How much unused $ does Jed need for possible deadline trades where costs are at a premium? The time to move someone is now if that’s what it takes to add a sexy bat.

Yeah, don't worry about saving $ for the deadline, you never know what that market will be then, more certainty now.  Go for it now. 

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There was an Athletic article in November where they asked if he had any regrets about not getting a better starter at the deadline.  His response was essentially "no the prices were stupid, but I should have been more aggressive last winter."  Then it talked about Jesus Luzardo for two paragraphs which tells me Jed name checked that failed deal but had to do it off the record.

So there's a good chance the team enters the season with this current absurd level of pitching depth with the idea bring that they're probably not getting a SP in July, and if they do it'll top out at a Mike Soroka swing type.

And if the trade for an arm people thought trading cam smith was an overpay for Tucker imagine the blow back trading Cassie+Wiggins for Cabrera.

Edited January 8 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

And if the trade for an arm people thought trading cam smith was an overpay for Tucker imagine the blow back trading Cassie+Wiggins for Cabrera.

Yep, that would have been crazy. I think Jed timed this one well and traded pretty much what most thought. Main piece of Cassie. I thought Brown, Assad or Wicks would need to be added, but I imagine Hernandez + is similar in value. This is a good deal, regardless if one of those guys becomes a star or Cabrera gets injured. You can’t predict the future. In the present, this fills a need very well. 

[chibears55]

11 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

Next season, you're guaranteed to see inning/pitch restrictions on Horton, Steele, and Wiggins due to prior injuries. That's also not counting potential wear and tear concerns with Boyd (whose 179.2 IP in 2025 eclipsed his last three seasons of IP combined) and Imanaga (who clearly wore down in the second half of 2025). Taillon also has a history of arm trouble.

The days of the MLB SP who can give you a healthy 150+ IP over the course of multiple seasons in a row are long, long gone.

True, and that why having both Rea and Assad in the pen could be very helpful with not only being available to spot start but also eat up innings if they need to pull these starters early. 

Steele return will allow them to give the rotation an extra day off and the possibility of going to a 6 man.

Having a kid like Wiggins waiting in the wing is always a plus.

A poster mentioned above about concerns with health for the playoffs, if they get that far and theres no serious setbacks with any of these starters throughout the season, having 9 starters ( Steele Rea Assad Wiggins) on the team will go a long way with keeping them fresh and allow them to skip starts here and there especially in September if they're way ahead in the standings.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

True, and that why having both Rea and Assad in the pen could be very helpful with not only being available to spot start but also eat up innings if they need to pull these starters early. 

Steele return will allow them to give the rotation an extra day off and the possibility of going to a 6 man.

Having a kid like Wiggins waiting in the wing is always a plus.

A poster mentioned above about concerns with health for the playoffs, if they get that far and theres no serious setbacks with any of these starters throughout the season, having 9 starters ( Steele Rea Assad Wiggins) on the team will go a long way with keeping them fresh and allow them to skip starts here and there especially in September if they're way ahead in the standings.

I agree. Just add a big bat. But if they did feel they had to drop down under the LT line, IMO they can trade Rea. That gives them $6M to work with. They would still have Steele and Wiggins coming mid season. That is 7 starters. Plus they would have Wicks, Assad and Brown. Even without Rea the pen has many options: Maton, Thielbar, Milner, Webb, Palancia, Assad, Brown, Hodges, Little, Wicks, and Harvey. Rea is expendable. 
That said, they shouldn’t be so worried about going over this year. Just get the big bat and move on. 

[chibears55]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree. Just add a big bat. But if they did feel they had to drop down under the LT line, IMO they can trade Rea. That gives them $6M to work with. They would still have Steele and Wiggins coming mid season. That is 7 starters. Plus they would have Wicks, Assad and Brown. Even without Rea the pen has many options: Maton, Thielbar, Milner, Webb, Palancia, Assad, Brown, Hodges, Little, Wicks, and Harvey. Rea is expendable. 
That said, they shouldn’t be so worried about going over this year. Just get the big bat and move on. 

Yea i forgot about Wicks and Brown, they're pretty setup with pitching depth now.

[squally1313]

55 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep, that would have been crazy. I think Jed timed this one well and traded pretty much what most thought. Main piece of Cassie. I thought Brown, Assad or Wicks would need to be added, but I imagine Hernandez + is similar in value. This is a good deal, regardless if one of those guys becomes a star or Cabrera gets injured. You can’t predict the future. In the present, this fills a need very well. 

I mean, did he get Cabrera now for a lot cheaper than Caissie/Wiggins 6 months ago? Yes. Did we lose game five of the NLDS and have Colin Rea be the losing pitcher because we had literally no other options? Also yes. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

43 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, did he get Cabrera now for a lot cheaper than Caissie/Wiggins 6 months ago? Yes. Did we lose game five of the NLDS and have Colin Rea be the losing pitcher because we had literally no other options? Also yes. 

Yeah, this trade should have been made last off season when King Tuck was around.