Jaxon Wiggins was once a controversial draft pick; the Cubs selected the pitcher out of Arkansas in the second round of the 2023 Amateur Draft. The reason people were skeptical at the time was that Wiggins had missed the previous year due to Tommy John surgery, and despite some encouraging reports before he went down in the fall league, his numbers while at college were never good. 

Since then, Wiggins has exploded through the Cubs' system, and his 2025 season saw the right-handed pitcher move from High-A South Bend to Iowa by the end of the year. There was a mysterious shutdown around the trade deadline in which Wiggins took time off (either for injury or rest, it's not entirely clear), but the year was excellent for the former second-round pick. Through all three levels, he posted a 2.19 ERA and a 3.29 xFIP. Better yet, he struck out 31% of batters faced and kept his walks in check, walking 11.5% of hitters. He only logged 78 innings, so you'd like to have seen a little more length out of him, but it was an encouraging year.

What To Like
The first thing that stands out in Wiggins' profile is that his fastball is already flashing very special characteristics. Capable of running it up to triple digits, and sitting comfortably at 96-98 mph with ease, it's not just a hard fastball — it has great shape too. The heater that the Cubs' prospect features has some of the best induced vertical break (IVB) around. IVB helps us understand the effects, or in this case, the lack of effect, gravity has on a specific pitch. Wiggins' fastball has the ability to cut through the air and not have gravity drag it down. Wiggins' IVB of 19.1 is about the same level as Shota Imanaga's fastball, except he throws it much harder. While I hesitate to say it's an 80-grade offering, this is a pitch that is going to make Wiggins very hard to hit when he gets it up in the zone. 

A knock on Wiggins coming out of college and into the draft was his inability to throw enough strikes. Baseball America's draft profile mentions his "erratic control." Well, Wiggins has quieted those concerns, showing improved control en route to manageable walk totals. While he looked rusty at times in Iowa coming off a long layoff, he seems to have continued to work on that aspect in the offseason. As Matt Trueblood wrote about recently, his fastball command has been very good this spring while in camp with the Cubs. This is great news for his development; limiting free passes is always a good thing for a pitcher. 

What To Work On
As with all pitchers, availability matters and Wiggins hasn't always been available. Whether it's the TJS he had in college or the timeout he took last year, ensuring that their prized pitching prospect remains on the mound is big priority for the organization. The Cubs have done well over the years keeping players relatively healthy, and with depth at the MLB level, the Cubs shouldn't have to push him along too fast. In the event of an early injury, the team can turn to Colin Rea or Javier Assad with confidence and Justin Steele seems to be well ahead of schedule, too. This will allow Wiggins to build strength on his own timeline. 

Once he clears all bars of health and continues to build innings, his secondaries are still more of a work-in-progress than his fastball is. As Matt explained in his article, while the fastball command is making progress, the other offerings still need some refinement in the zone. He has a curveball and a changeup that both flash upside, but he hasn't dialed in the location entirely. His command isn't as erratic as it once was, but it'd be best for his starting pitching prospects if he could improve this further. 

What's Next
Jaxon Wiggins is going to head to Iowa to start the year and will undoubtedly be the pitcher to watch, not only in Triple-A, but in the entire system. The upside here is immense; think a Nick Pivetta who throws 98 mph. He has the makings and foundations of a top-of-the-rotation guy, but with enough warts that he may not get there. Ensuring that the endurance, stamina, health and control of his secondaries progress will help make sure that he gets as close to his optimal outcome as possible. 

It feels very likely that as long as he's healthy, he's going to make his debut in Chicago sometime in 2026. While we'd all love to see him as a starting option, the Cubs have a ton of depth built up this year, so he may make his initial appearances out of the bullpen. That's okay; depth is a good thing, and this will allow the Cubs to control his innings while not having to put him on a leash. If the North Siders are as good as we hope, they could even get him some late-season starts if they're running away with the division in that case. And with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, and Jameson Taillon all possible departures at the end of the year, a 2027 rotation spot seems prime for the taking. 

The Cubs don't need to rush Wiggins, and that's a good thing. There's still many outcomes for their top-ranked-arm, but so far, he's clearing hurdles and showing he's a capable learner. There is some major upside with the 24-year-old, something the team is sorely lacking down on the farm, so there's probably some undue pressure on him to lead the line and break out fully this year. That's a tough bill to live up to, but he has so far shown he's up to the task.