Playoff Talk

[mk49]

As of right now (Dodgers vs Phillies still going on 9/17), my prediction (obviously, I could be very wrong) for these teams at the end of the season will be:

Cubs: 93 Wins
Dodgers: 91 Wins
Padres: 90 Wins

So, yeah, we will face the Padres in Chicago first, and we'll beat them.  And, hopefully, the Cubs will beat the Brewers in NLDS.  Assuming, the Dodgers advance to NLCS against the Cubs,, we have home field advantage, right?  We have a good chance beating LA.   I don't really want to see the Phillies.  So, I'm hoping the Dodgers will beat them.  

Am I too optimistic? 

 

Edited September 18, 2025 by mk49

[Stratos]

Well there's no powerhouse team really, so we have as good a chance as anyone to win the WS, besides the 4 teams that skip the 1st round that is.

[Brian707]

7 hours ago, mk49 said:

As of right now (Dodgers vs Phillies still going on 9/17), my prediction (obviously, I could be very wrong) for these teams at the end of the season will be:

Cubs: 93 Wins
Dodgers: 91 Wins
Padres: 90 Wins

So, yeah, we will face the Padres in Chicago first, and we'll beat them.  And, hopefully, the Cubs will beat the Brewers in NLDS.  Assuming, the Dodgers advance to NLCS against the Cubs,, we have home field advantage, right?  We have a good chance beating LA.   I don't really want to see the Phillies.  So, I'm hoping the Dodgers will beat them.  

Am I too optimistic? 

 

The Cubs in this scenario would not have HFA in the NLCS vs the Dodgers no matter what the records are.

[CubUgly]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well there's no powerhouse team really, so we have as good a chance as anyone to win the WS, besides the 4 teams that skip the 1st round that is.

I agree, some have said the Phillies are, but their bullpen is bottom third in baseball by most every metric, they lost their best pitcher for the year and while Schwarbs is having a career year, their lineup is aging and much like the Cubs lineup has been prone to some prolonged hitting droughts.  Once could argue they are the favorite - but powerhouse....I don't think so. 

The Dodgers bullpen is horrific and they have some still good but aging every day talent as well.  And the Brewers - I don't think anyone understands how they are doing it but until they do it in the post season I don't think they'll be considered a powerhouse or anything of the sort.  

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

I agree, some have said the Phillies are, but their bullpen is bottom third in baseball by most every metric, they lost their best pitcher for the year and while Schwarbs is having a career year, their lineup is aging and much like the Cubs lineup has been prone to some prolonged hitting droughts.  Once could argue they are the favorite - but powerhouse....I don't think so. 

The Dodgers bullpen is horrific and they have some still good but aging every day talent as well.  And the Brewers - I don't think anyone understands how they are doing it but until they do it in the post season I don't think they'll be considered a powerhouse or anything of the sort.  

Phillies pen might suck but they come at you with 3 very solid left handed staring pitchers. That is why, for me, the Phillies are the wkrst match up for the Cubs. But like you and everyone else has said, they are not a powerhouse. No one is. Anyone can be beat. 

[jersey cubs fan]

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, CubUgly said:

I agree, some have said the Phillies are, but their bullpen is bottom third in baseball by most every metric, they lost their best pitcher for the year and while Schwarbs is having a career year, their lineup is aging and much like the Cubs lineup has been prone to some prolonged hitting droughts.  Once could argue they are the favorite - but powerhouse....I don't think so. 

The Dodgers bullpen is horrific and they have some still good but aging every day talent as well.  And the Brewers - I don't think anyone understands how they are doing it but until they do it in the post season I don't think they'll be considered a powerhouse or anything of the sort.  

I think, unfortunately, the Dodgers staff is starting to get healthy, or at the very least, their starters.  They've been on quite the heater and, I suspect, come the PS, their bullpen will be adequate.   Then again, they are older than dirt and I believe Ohtani arm's is a ticking bomb.

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I think, unfortunately, the Dodgers staff is starting to get healthy, or at the very least, their starters.  They've been on quite the heater and, I suspect, come the PS, their bullpen will be adequate.   Then again, they are older than dirt and I believe Ohtani arm's is a ticking bomb.

If things go as I hope, Cubs won’t have to face either the Phillies or the Dodgers. But most likely they will have to beat one of them. 

[soccer10k]

4 hours ago, Brian707 said:

The Cubs in this scenario would not have HFA in the NLCS vs the Dodgers no matter what the records are.

Yep. Team record only determined HFA in the World Series. Otherwise it’s by which seed you are.

[Outshined_One]

It's my main source of hope for this upcoming postseason - there is no single dominant team in the NL.  Granted, that can mean nothing in the postseason (see: 2008 Cubs), but it gives this team a legitimate chance at the WS, even if Tucker doesn't come back 100%, since every team in the postseason will have major flaws that can be exploited.

[Brian707]

BTW any update on Tucker? I would hope he can at least come back by the last regular season series.

[ILMindState]

It's the playoffs, every team is good and any team can beat you. All it takes is for an opposing a pitcher or hitter to get hot for a series and your season can be over. I stopped wishing we could face a certain team after 2015 when I thought the Cubs had an easy path against the Mets.  Arrieta was having his historic 2nd half and Soler was hot in the NLDS. We were undefeated against the Mets in the regular season but Daniel Murphy got hot and we got swept. Just win games and let the chips fall where they may.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

BTW any update on Tucker? I would hope he can at least come back by the last regular season series.

via the Athletic

Quote

“We’re concerned because he’s not responding,” Counsell said. “We’re optimistic that he will play. But we are at the point where the calendar is starting to (turn). The days are running out. It’s important that he plays in regular-season games. Because if he (doesn’t), we’re talking about (missing almost a month). That’s why you’re willing to go to this extra step here to try something. I think it’s important that he plays next week, so we’re doing everything we can to make that happen.”

The worry seems to be less "will he be available" and more "can we get him back in time to not have any rust"

[ILMindState]

6 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

BTW any update on Tucker? I would hope he can at least come back by the last regular season series.

Yes, there was an update yesterday. It was not good

 

 

[Bertz]

Thinking about the bench, there's a lot of interesting decisions:

- Castro, one of Santana/Turner, and one of Amaya/McGuire are absolute locks

- Do you carry 4 or 5 bench players (corollary to 'Do you carry 12 or 13 pitchers')?

- Has Santana shown anything to leapfrog Turner?  I'd think not?

- Is there enough time for Amaya to leapfrog McGuire?  I'd lean no but it's a lot closer

- Do you carry a 3rd catcher?  I'd think not given that Kelly doesn't have crazy splits, but it's worth asking

- Do you carry Billy Hamilton as a designated runner?  He's 3/4 in SBs at Iowa, but no idea how he grades out beyond that?

- Feels like Ballesteros as the big lefty bat off the makes a lot of sense?

 

[UMFan83]

2 hours ago, ILMindState said:

It's the playoffs, every team is good and any team can beat you. All it takes is for an opposing a pitcher or hitter to get hot for a series and your season can be over. I stopped wishing we could face a certain team after 2015 when I thought the Cubs had an easy path against the Mets.  Arrieta was having his historic 2nd half and Soler was hot in the NLDS. We were undefeated against the Mets in the regular season but Daniel Murphy got hot and we got swept. Just win games and let the chips fall where they may.

In 2007 we faced the Diamondbacks, who had a negative run differential that season. In 2008 we faced the 84 win Dodgers. We won a combined 0 games in those series. Anything can happen. If anything it’s kind of amazing that the Cubs were able to win it in the season they won 103 games and we still had to do things like: come back from down 3 runs in the 9th inning to prevent a deciding game vs the Giants, overcome back to back shutouts against the Dodgers, and come back from down 3-1 to beat Cleveland. 

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Thinking about the bench, there's a lot of interesting decisions:

- Castro, one of Santana/Turner, and one of Amaya/McGuire are absolute locks

- Do you carry 4 or 5 bench players (corollary to 'Do you carry 12 or 13 pitchers')?

- Has Santana shown anything to leapfrog Turner?  I'd think not?

- Is there enough time for Amaya to leapfrog McGuire?  I'd lean no but it's a lot closer

- Do you carry a 3rd catcher?  I'd think not given that Kelly doesn't have crazy splits, but it's worth asking

- Do you carry Billy Hamilton as a designated runner?  He's 3/4 in SBs at Iowa, but no idea how he grades out beyond that?

- Feels like Ballesteros as the big lefty bat off the makes a lot of sense?

 

I'd lean 12 pitchers, especially for the wild card round where you only need 3 starters anyway, so Assad and Rea probably get left off.

Pending the Tucker situation, you have your regular 9 plus a catcher (McGuire/Miggy), Castro, Turner, and then I think it gets interesting for the last 2 spots.  If it was me, I'd definitely have Ballesteros on the roster and very heavily consider him as a starter over Seiya against RH starters.  Those splits for Seiya are ugly.  I think at that point, it probably makes sense to add Santana to the bench because of the platoon situation with Busch and Turner being as stark as it is.  Having that versatility available so you can take advantage of a matchup late in a close game seems like something that could turn out to be a big key at some point.

[squally1313]

Do they trust Ballesteros to play any first base at all? Padres are all RHP in their rotation, so it'll be Busch at first in all the games. But they have (right now, with expanded rosters) 4 LHPs in their bullpen. Do they trust Ballesteros to come in for Turner if they go to Turner in like, the 5th inning? If not....what's the scenario where Ballesteros comes in for a righty hitter? Not Suzuki, probably not Kelly, almost certainly not Hoerner, I would say no for Dansby....Shaw I guess?

Edited September 18, 2025 by squally1313

[gflore34]

Anyone watching Tigers - Guardians?  A few moments ago Skubal gave up a tying HR, followed by consecutive singles.  Guardians are driving up his PC and are within 4.5 games in the AL Central.  I like the Tigers however, it'd be interesting if the Guardians win today and make it closer.  Tigers are limping to the finish, not too confident in their PS chances.  Skubal can't pitch in every game, bullpen is very shaky.  And just like that, Skubal out, Jose Ramirez hits a 2R-HR.

Edited September 18, 2025 by gflore34

[mk49]

8 hours ago, Brian707 said:

The Cubs in this scenario would not have HFA in the NLCS vs the Dodgers no matter what the records are.

Oh, that sucks.  We still have chance, though.

[mul21]

19 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Do they trust Ballesteros to play any first base at all? Padres are all RHP in their rotation, so it'll be Busch at first in all the games. But they have (right now, with expanded rosters) 4 LHPs in their bullpen. Do they trust Ballesteros to come in for Turner if they go to Turner in like, the 5th inning? If not....what's the scenario where Ballesteros comes in for a righty hitter? Not Suzuki, probably not Kelly, almost certainly not Hoerner, I would say no for Dansby....Shaw I guess?

Your first base scenario is why I think they should have Santana on the roster for at least the wild card round.

[Rcal10]

21 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Do they trust Ballesteros to play any first base at all? Padres are all RHP in their rotation, so it'll be Busch at first in all the games. But they have (right now, with expanded rosters) 4 LHPs in their bullpen. Do they trust Ballesteros to come in for Turner if they go to Turner in like, the 5th inning? If not....what's the scenario where Ballesteros comes in for a righty hitter? Not Suzuki, probably not Kelly, almost certainly not Hoerner, I would say no for Dansby....Shaw I guess?

If they go with 5 bench players there is room for Santana and Ballesteros, if they don’t roster Hamilton. Bench if a back up catcher, Castro, Turner, Santana and Ballesteros. I actually think Santana is a sure thing for the roster and either Ballesteros or Hamilton will be the 5rh bench guy, if they go with only 12 pitchers(which I think they shouldn’t take more)

[Rcal10]

I was listening to Bruce Levine on the score the other day and he suggested maybe only an 11 man staff for round 1. Whether it is 11 or 12, I am pretty sure it won’t be 13. That said, I count 7 definites:

Imanaga, Boyd, Horton, Theilbar, Kittredge, Keller, Pomeranz.

I am not sure Taillon is going to be on the roster. (But he could be the 8th) If you need long relief would you rather have a starting pitcher who isn’t used to that scenerio coming in or someone like Assad, Rea, Soroka or Civale? Then you also have Palencia and Rogers to consider. What 4, or 5 others make the staff? 

[mk49]

I'm the OP, and I expected the Cubs to win 93 games.  After getting swept by the Reds, I'm not sure.  I still hope they win 3 or 4 more games in Chicago.  Either way, as long as we can keep the #1 wild card spot, it would be all good.

I guess the Reds was in Must Win situation for the rest of the season, and the Cubs weren't as serious about winning.  That said, Rea and Jamo pitched really well.  And, that was the only good thing about the series.  

I think it's too late for Amaya and Tucker to come back in the wild card.  Jamo should be on the roster.  I mean for the last one month, he's the 2nd best pitcher for the Cubs.  He probably won't start, but he should be in.  At this moment, I would take him over Pomeranz, Soroka, Rogers, Rea, Assad  Civale, and even Palencia.  We definitely need these guys, Imanaga, Boyd, Horton, Theilbar, Kittredge and Keller.  Add Jamo to that roster.

Edited September 22, 2025 by mk49

[Stratos]

On 9/19/2025 at 11:07 AM, Rcal10 said:

If they go with 5 bench players there is room for Santana and Ballesteros, if they don’t roster Hamilton. Bench if a back up catcher, Castro, Turner, Santana and Ballesteros. I actually think Santana is a sure thing for the roster and either Ballesteros or Hamilton will be the 5rh bench guy, if they go with only 12 pitchers(which I think they shouldn’t take more)

Have to at least assume they'd want a RHB like Santana off the bench to PH.  Really hard to see Ballesteros not on the team.  If the playoffs started today I probably start him at DH vs RHP over Seiya if Tucker is back.  No Tucker and Ballesteros is almost 100% in the lineup vs RHP.

If Tucker walks I assume at DH/RF they go with some combo of Seiya/Ballestero/Caissie/Alcantara.  They probably also sign some kind of bench RHB OF.