Outshined_One
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Everything posted by Outshined_One
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-30-26
Outshined_One replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Not for nothing, but I was secretly hoping Sorrell would torch Arizona out of the gate and find himself in MB in early August. I mean, I get it, dude had a long season, it's his first taste of professional ball, and he's only been there a few days. But still, it'd be nice to see a guy they drafted this year show out. -
This is one of the unspoken issues when parity comes up. If every team has the *same* chance of winning a WS in a given season, you're going to end up with WS matchups that are ostensibly bad for the sport because of fickle/apathetic fanbases. Cripes, the Marlins have won more WS than most teams in MLB since 1997 and look where that got their attendance and media deals.
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Kelly likely won't fetch a QO from the Cubs, and the Cubs at least have Amaya/Ayers/Ballesteros if a deal goes through, so I can kinda see how it could happen? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but it's not as pants-on-head-crazy as trading Seiya. I'm feeling like we're seeing writers and prognosticators going down lists of guys due to be FAs in the offseason and randomly throwing names out as trade candidates. When do we get the articles about the Cubs having interest in trading Happ and Boyd?
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Curious to see who walks away with Mize. I feel like he's a sneaky under-the-radarish type who'd be a really good pickup for a pitching-savvy team.
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I took your post more to say they wouldn't be trading for anyone because they sucked. Their offense is bad, don't get me wrong, but they need guys like Kirby if they want to make a run at it. It would be like ripping out part of a levy to use it to plug a leak elsewhere. Plus, their farm system is stacked with some really good pieces who can be used in a trade for a bat elsewhere.
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They're 1.5 games out of the third WC spot and 2.5 games out in the AL West. The AL suuuuuuuucks this year.
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I feel like the Seiya trade talk is just something that's being thrown at the wall for engagement. @Jason Ross covered it in detail, but the short of things is, why would a team in the playoff race trade the Cubs a cost-controlled SP good enough to slot into the Cubs' rotation for Seiya? I don't get why a team would trade a high quality performing SP when that team would likely need said SP for the stretch run and the playoffs. I mean, sure, if the Mariners offered up Kirby for Seiya, the Cubs would probably take it, but I just don't get why the Mariners would even do that in the first place.
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There's also a needle MLB could be threading with his tool grades, which is related to this line of thinking. Essentially, Martinez (or anyone, really) could presently have the tools to meet those particular grades, but just because he has those tools does not mean those tools translate into in-game results. So, perhaps a guy is graded with 60 power because he can put on a show in batting practice, but he doesn't have the approach/experience/etc. needed to translate that power into results when facing live pitching. Same goes for things like speed, where he might be able to run a 4.4 40 yard dash but look like a baby giraffe on the bases, or fielding, where he could have superior reflexes and instincts, but has yet to figure out things like tracking fly balls or cut-off angles for grounders. This sort of stuff comes with coaching, experience, and time, and there's never a guarantee a guy will be able to tap into those tools to their fullest extent.
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Draft Pick Signings
Outshined_One replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Nunez signed, making the Cubs 21 for 21 in getting their picks under contract. -
I know he's the shiny new toy and due for a date with the regression monster, but there's enough there to make me think Shaw can be expendable in the right trade. It's fun.
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This is going to be one of the most legitimately fascinating issues going into the offseason. I can see both guys being open to hometown discounts, and both guys *should* be valuable enough in 2027 to justify keeping either or both, but there also are valid reasons not to keep them long past then. On the flip side, this will probably be Seiya's and Happ's best chance to cash in on their successes, and I could easily see both of them getting 4 year deals from teams who can talk themselves into needing a veteran bat. My personal prediction is Happ cuts a hometown discount and stays on a 3 year deal, while Seiya leaves, but TBD.
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NSBB has some of the best Cubs prospecturbation on the internet, even if you were to ignore the front page articles that get posted regarding the farm. It's worth reading the daily threads and following along if you're going to be posting articles involving things like the Cubs' trade capital or their future needs at various positions.
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Kepley is one of those guys where everything has to go right for him to be an everyday ML starter. There have been a few Steve Kwan comps thrown around with Kepley, but I think that's more like his 98th percentile outcome than a likely outcome (if that makes sense). Don't get me wrong, I think Kepley has an ML future, since his speed, defense, and lefty bat should make him an attractive bench guy at the very least. But he's going to have his work cut out for him at the plate as he ascends through the minors and faces more advanced pitching.
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My then-gf lost it in June 2020 after we'd been stuck at home for a few months because our apartment had limited closet space, and a quarter of one closet was dedicated to Christmas stuff. So, we decided to start celebrating Christmas in July, and it's been a tradition ever since. Relevant to this thread, the only rule we have is you have to get the other person something they need, only they don't realize it yet, and will greatly appreciate it upon receiving said gift.
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Part of the problem also is they tend not to follow national trends in the draft or with international signings, so it's not like they're regularly pulling in high profile/high ceiling guys who stumble their way to the majors, only to immensely benefit from better infrastructure elsewhere, such as we saw with Baltimore pitchers in the 2010s. Instead, it's more like the Angels pull in good-but-not great guys who see marginal improvement when they sign elsewhere because their ceiling is relatively limited.
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I'm at the point where I'd do something like Shaw/Ayers/Triantos for Detmers and not even hesitate. Heck, I'd even throw in a Tomas or a Cabada if they want a lottery ticket. The rotation is going to have issues going into next offseason and Detmers fills the Boyd-sized hole really nicely going into 2027. I just don't see why the Angels would trade him for anything short of a Made or a Pena, considering the value he represents is extremely high.
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I'm not crazy in thinking a LHP SP with 3 fWAR and years of control should fetch more than a Top 75ish power pitcher with injury history, a borderline Top 100 catcher who was almost a complete unknown entering the season, and a light hitting utility prospect, right? I feel like the Dodgers and Brewers could match that using prospects found between their couch cushions.
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Detmers is going to cost more than Rojas and Ayers, even with add-ons like Kepley and Wing. He's a LHP SP with multiple years of team control. He's going to cost more than Cabrera did this offseason
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Part of the difficulty with valuing Ayers is that he's a unicorn. He was a 19th round pick who was largely unheralded until late last year, and even coming into this season the attitude was relatively restrained. The Cubs historically have done a very good job of developing catchers (Amaya. Caratini, Contreras, Castillo, Soto), so it's not like his breakout comes as a complete shock, but catchers who are way too old for A-ball tend to be more likely take the coaching career track than make it to the majors, much less hit the holy horsefeathers out of the ball and jump to AAA in a single season. You can make the case for Ayers as a borderline Top 100 guy and teams will definitely have interest in him in deadline deals. The problem is, he's on a road that's rarely (if ever) traveled, so his ceiling could be anywhere from "backup catcher who doesn't get a second contract" to "if he's traded, you will get irrationally angry every time you see his name come up over the next decade."
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Trade proposal for Michael Wacha
Outshined_One replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
He's one of those, "Eh, whatever, sure." trade targets that moves the needle on the regular season win total, but won't help much come playoff time (unless catastrophic injuries hit). Alcantara straight up for Wacha seems like a mild underpay, so something like Alcantara + Lottery Ticket makes sense to me. -
Where are you seeing that? Last update was about a week ago when Craig said Steele wouldn't be back in the rotation, but would likely help the pen in some capacity in September.
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There are trade possibilities where the Jays could be stocking up for a run in 2027 while selling redundant assets. They could covet Ballesteros/Shaw/Ramirez/Alcantara or even guys like Rojas, Ayers, Wiggins, or Kepley if they think those players would keep the competitive window open longer from 2027 and beyond.
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The Cubs also have done a really good job of developing catchers internally, and have a really promising guy in Owen Ayers who should be ready next season. It's not even like there are long-term concerns at the position. They're fine.
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Knowing our luck, the Cubs are going to get swept in the next three games and Detroit will magically turn into buyers at the deadline as a result.
