Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

I'm not great on player values and potential trade values, but that would be light and Cle wouldn't even consider it.  PCA, Brown, Morel might even be light.  

Not sure yours is light. Maybe something else needed. But Wisdom and Mervis in that deal is definitely not going to get it done. 

[Chicago Al]

4 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

I'm not great on player values and potential trade values, but that would be light and Cle wouldn't even consider it.  PCA, Brown, Morel might even be light.  

I agree, it was more along the lines of wishful thinking 

[Cuzi]

Joey Votto wants to play next year. He was good 3 years ago. Probably right up this FO's alley for 1B.

[Rcal10]

59 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Joey Votto wants to play next year. He was good 3 years ago. Probably right up this FO's alley for 1B.

You might be aiming a little high here. I was thinking more like CJ Cron. 

[Tryptamine]

So why are we wanting to take a 3.5 fWAR LFer and move him to 1B where he becomes like a 1.5 to 2 fWAR 1B? 

[Tim]

37 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

So why are we wanting to take a 3.5 fWAR LFer and move him to 1B where he becomes like a 1.5 to 2 fWAR 1B? 

• I think that's an overstatement of the difference in positional value between LF & 1B, but I haven't looked that up. Just guessing on this one.
• I don't want to move Happ. I want to move the 5.5 WAR LF because I think he'd still be a 5.0 WAR 1B/ 4.5 WAR DH if he sheds the negative defensive value as an outfielder.

Also, as a side note, this is why I really wasn't into extending Happ. Yes, it raised the floor over the next few years. But it also created questions like this one where we are talking about maybe not going after a stupidly good hitter because we already have Ian Happ at his position on the field. 

(the easy answer, of course, is that you still go get Soto and figure out the defense later)

[Tim]

Tom Ricketts has enough money. Let's just go get:

• Shohei to play DH (and eventually pitch)
• Soto to play LF / 1B / Who Cares
• Yamamoto for SP
• Candelario to play 3B / 1B
• A backup plan for starter in CF in case PCA isn't ready, but amenable to being a bench guy once PCA is ready
• 2-3 quality relievers
• Pick up Gomes' option

I'm viewing those top 3 acquisitions as coming from different markets, so easier than signing the top 3 FA in any given year. Will this put us way, way, way into the cap? Yeah! But wow, what an offense.

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, Tim said:

Tom Ricketts has enough money. Let's just go get:

• Shohei to play DH (and eventually pitch)
• Soto to play LF / 1B / Who Cares
• Yamamoto for SP
• Candelario to play 3B / 1B
• A backup plan for starter in CF in case PCA isn't ready, but amenable to being a bench guy once PCA is ready
• 2-3 quality relievers
• Pick up Gomes' option

I'm viewing those top 3 acquisitions as coming from different markets, so easier than signing the top 3 FA in any given year. Will this put us way, way, way into the cap? Yeah! But wow, what an offense.

Tim are you into the wine this early? 

[Tim]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Tim are you into the wine this early? 

Nah. Just dreaming big

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Tim said:

Nah. Just dreaming big

I agree they have the money. It would be a dream come true and completely out of character. 

[JD94]

Screw it. We need superstars.

Trade for Alonso and give him 6/132 (22 AAV)

Trade for Soto and give him 12/420 (35 AAV) 

Sign Ohtani and give him 10/400 (40 AAV)

Sign Yamamoto and who knows on his contract, but somewhere around 22 AAV

If the Cubs are around $176M counting arb raises and guys that will be back (including Stroman and Gomes but excluding Hendricks since they can decline his option and they should in this scenario) and they spend over the $237M threshold but stay under the next threshold of $257, that gives them about $70M and leaves a little room for deadline deals. If you added all the players I mentioned above, you could move Happ to save $21M next season. Now you have around $91M to spend and to stay below the 2nd LT threshold. With the additions of the players mentioned above, that would be about $119M give or take some. That would put us over the 2nd threshold of $257M by about $28M. I’m guessing if you trade for Soto and Alonso and then extend them, that their extensions wouldn’t count against you until the next year, which would make the money work out to stay below the 2nd threshold. 

lineup would be something like:

2B - Hoerner

LF - Soto

DH - Ohtani

1B - Alonso

SS - Swanson

RF - Suzuki 

3B - Morel

C - Amaya / Gomes

CF - PCA 

 

Rotation

Steele

Yamamoto

Stroman

Wicks

Taillon

Obviously this will never happen, but it should. Maybe my money is off (just now having my first cup of coffee lol) and it wouldn’t work. I’ll be surprised if we end up with 1 of these guys, let along all 4. The Cubs will likely spend enough to say “hey we spent money” but not enough to really put us over the top like the Chicago Cubs can and should spend. It’s just a fun little exercise. Again almost a 0% chance of happening. 

[Bertz]

Quote

 

The question quickly becomes this: What would the Cubs need to give up to get Soto? Numerous opposing teams have asked about 24-year-old utilityman Christopher Morel, who hit 26 homers and posted an .821 OPS in 107 games in 2023. Morel is under team control through 2028 and isn’t arbitration-eligible until the 2026 season. The Padres are high on Morel, sources said.

The Cubs also have the prospect capital in their strong farm system that could be needed to potentially acquire Soto. There’s also a thought around MLB that the Padres will absorb part of Soto’s salary in 2024 if they receive enough young talent in return.

 

Morel probably gets you most of the way to Soto if no money changes hands.  BBTV actually thinks a 1 for 1 trade is basically fair, though I'd guess that's a bit light.  But if you can get Soto for Morel, you probably don't have to part with any of Assad/Brown/Wicks, which would be ideal from a roster flexibility standpoint.

Also all the specific reporting around Soto already makes me think this is going to happen pretty early in the offseason.  I assume Preller wants to get it done so he can do his subsequent wheeling and dealing from there?

[Jason Ross]

Morel would be someone I'd be fine with moving as the big piece. Happy, honestly.

[Jason Ross]

I don't really think they'd get laughed at if Christopher Morel was the headliner. Christopher Morel has 5 years of control remaining. He's 24 years old. He's a career 114 wRC+ hitter, has been worth 3 fWAR in 220 games and while the Cubs have primarily turned him into a DH, I don't think he's a DH-only-yet (I think work is needed to convert him fully to 3b, but his profile and scouting report was always that his glove was solid, and I expect he's a pretty decent 2b if given a full slate there). Soto only has one year of his deal remaining. so even as a roughly 5 fWAR player, the value you're trading isn't impossibly high. If you're "high" on Morel (as Levine claims the Padres are) you'd probably see a 2+ fWAR player over the course of that 5 years (at least 10 fWAR total). Add in something useful that isn't a Cub-10 prospect but has some good potential and I think you're pretty close on value. I know he's Juan Soto but we have to separate name from value.

We're used to thinking everything in the aspect of "ceiling, ceiling, ceiling" and I'm sure there would be packages that included players with higher ceilings than Morel. But Morel has already posted that 114 wRC+ in 850 PA's so there's a bunch of data that suggests Morel is an above average MLB hitter who might have more upside than that in the tank. There's a lot to be said about that kind of certainty, especially for a team like the Padres who aren't built to win in 2 or 3 years, but today.

I actually like Morel as a player, and I'd be a bit bummed to see him go. I do still have some questions about his contact rate. But I can see where a team may be high on Morel and see him as an option to add offense today, and still have $30m to go get another player, too. This really comes down to the Padres. Are they really high on Christopher Morel? None of us can answer that.

 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[ILMindState]

I'll drive Morel to the airport if he can headline a Soto trade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Players with one year left on their deals and very healthy salaries have not returned a ton in trade for a long while.  And also for a long while teams have not been willing to trade elite prospects for anything but very good players with cost control.  Also the Padres are not the average seller of this caliber player in that they aren't trying to kick off a rebuilding cycle by asking for high ceiling guys in the low minors.

 

If anything, and I really don't want this to be misinterpreted even though I know it will be, Morel is important enough to next year's Cubs team in terms of production for cost that you'd likely try to avoid making him the headliner on the Cubs side if you can make that work.  That probably requires the Padres being extra big fans of one or more of Brown, Canario, and Wicks though.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Players with one year left on their deals and very healthy salaries have not returned a ton in trade for a long while.  And also for a long while teams have not been willing to trade elite prospects for anything but very good players with cost control.  Also the Padres are not the average seller of this caliber player in that they aren't trying to kick off a rebuilding cycle by asking for high ceiling guys in the low minors.

 

If anything, and I really don't want this to be misinterpreted even though I know it will be, Morel is important enough to next year's Cubs team in terms of production for cost that you'd likely try to avoid making him the headliner on the Cubs side if you can make that work.  That probably requires the Padres being extra big fans of one or more of Brown, Canario, and Wicks though.

I think a lot of Morel's importance with a Soto trade comes down to where the Cubs see Christopher's home.  A trade for Soto likely closes off DH for Morel (as Happ, Suzuki and Soto would probably have to share COF and DH). As of yet, the team has been pretty hesitant to push for him to play at 3b. Obviously the offseason can change this equation, but internally it's hard to tell what they think. If they aren't fans of Morel as a 3b, there might not be a home for both Soto and Morel with the team and I'd guess the Cubs would likely at that point prefer a Morel headline versus a Wicks/Brown/Canario/whatever.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think a lot of Morel's importance with a Soto trade comes down to where the Cubs see Christopher's home.  A trade for Soto likely closes off DH for Morel (as Happ, Suzuki and Soto would probably have to share COF and DH). As of yet, the team has been pretty hesitant to push for him to play at 3b. Obviously the offseason can change this equation, but internally it's hard to tell what they think. If they aren't fans of Morel as a 3b, there might not be a home for both Soto and Morel with the team and I'd guess the Cubs would likely at that point prefer a Morel headline versus a Wicks/Brown/Canario/whatever.

That's fair, and it's definitely conspicuous how little they've let Morel play 3B.  The one caveat I'd give is that that you could just as easily use Morel in a different trade(like for a SP) to help get to where you want to go.  So even if you think Morel's future on the Cubs roster is doomed by his lack of defensive quality, there's still an inefficiency to sending him off to get a star bat that you have to pay 30+ million to (and for potentially only one year at that).  I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, there's only 2 hitters of Soto quality likely available and the other carries a higher cost than 30ish million + Morel, but Morel's pre-arb quality has enough value that I'm not gonna rush to say 'sold, who cares, get lost Chris' in reacting to that possibility.

[Jason Ross]

35 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That's fair, and it's definitely conspicuous how little they've let Morel play 3B.  The one caveat I'd give is that that you could just as easily use Morel in a different trade(like for a SP) to help get to where you want to go.  So even if you think Morel's future on the Cubs roster is doomed by his lack of defensive quality, there's still an inefficiency to sending him off to get a star bat that you have to pay 30+ million to (and for potentially only one year at that).  I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, there's only 2 hitters of Soto quality likely available and the other carries a higher cost than 30ish million + Morel, but Morel's pre-arb quality has enough value that I'm not gonna rush to say 'sold, who cares, get lost Chris' in reacting to that possibility.

Yeah, I think Morel has value for sure (why I think Soto for Morel, or at least those bones makes sense). I'd not be happy to lose Morel, but a Morel-centered-trade is probably in my "best case scenario", as well, when it comes to Juan Soto. I think it likely preserves the vast majority, if not the entirety of the Cubs-top-8-or-9 prospects while upgrading the MLB roster in the interim. I'd have to think the Cubs wouldn't trade Morel-for-Soto without a strong inkling of what it'd take to extend Soto and a strong desire to meet that level. And keeping intact the prospect capital isn't because I'm interested in prospect hording, but instead, I'd also look to make a second splash trade (I'd assume the $30m addition of Soto would take a strong chunk of money available). Whether a SP or another bat, it'd kind of depend on what would happen with Stroman/Hendricks, so I don't have names but that'd be how I'd feel. 

Whether or not the Cubs would...well...that's on them!

[JD94]

 

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, JD94 said:

 

I wonder how much of this is just Levine's opinion, or if it's wrapped up in his previous comments that the Padres are high on Morel. Is this based on some background noise/knowledge or just Levine's personal beliefs?

[jersey cubs fan]

21 hours ago, ILMindState said:

I'll drive Morel to the airport if he can headline a Soto trade.

I’d charter a plane to fly him to newark, pick him up on the tarmac only to drop him off at departures to see him headline that trade 

[NorthsideAvenger]

20 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I wonder how much of this is just Levine's opinion, or if it's wrapped up in his previous comments that the Padres are high on Morel. Is this based on some background noise/knowledge or just Levine's personal beliefs?

If Morel was all it took to get Soto (which is unlikely), then I'd say play "F**k the World Series" and make that trade now. I suspect it's more opinion from Levine than anything else. 

[JD94]

52 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I wonder how much of this is just Levine's opinion, or if it's wrapped up in his previous comments that the Padres are high on Morel. Is this based on some background noise/knowledge or just Levine's personal beliefs?

That’s a great question. I wish I was listening so I could better understand if that’s sourced or more of his opinion based on the Padres really liking Morel. 
 

As far as Soto goes, since I haven’t really commented yet, I’ll say I agree with Brett at BN. It’s cool to see multiple reports verifying the Cubs interest. Cerami had it first a few weeks ago I believe. And as much pushback as he gets for being “tik tok boy” he absolutely has a source inside the program right now. 
 

Back to the Morel point though, I imagine he’s definitely the headliner the Padres prefer in any trade regardless if it’s a 1 for 1 or not and that’s great news for us. If we can get a 25 year old superstar and also keep our top 8-10 prospects, that would be total best case scenario. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

I love Morel but id def do that Soto trade. There's a reason why he's a trade piece multiple teams are inquiring on, with him settling at second base will negate a lot of that negative defensive value he's had so far in the big leagues. And many years of control to go along with it, if they give up Morel id expect only one of the the AAA fodder pieces be included in the trade like Mervis or Vazquez.