Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Y2J]

47 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hypothetical: which of the following Alonso contracts would you prefer:

5 years, 100m

8 years, 125m

I’m taking 5 @ 100m all day, everyday. But, I’m with Rcal, I think he gets $25ish per, at which I’m still in on 5 @ 125m.

[squally1313]

It was an extreme hypothetical to show that there should be more nuance beyond 'I have a max number of years and that's that'. Players occasionally take less annual value to lock up longer term security. The other advantage to spreading out the deal is freeing up cash (and luxury tax space) in the short term.

And to reiterate my less analytic stance that I've brought up before, you just aren't going to get me to care about contractual cash obligations in 2030 or beyond. Future problems, plenty of ways to solve them. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

It was an extreme hypothetical to show that there should be more nuance beyond 'I have a max number of years and that's that'. Players occasionally take less annual value to lock up longer term security. The other advantage to spreading out the deal is freeing up cash (and luxury tax space) in the short term.

And to reiterate my less analytic stance that I've brought up before, you just aren't going to get me to care about contractual cash obligations in 2030 or beyond. Future problems, plenty of ways to solve them. 

But that is something a team does need to worry about. Look at the angels with a Pujols, Tigers with Cabrera as two examples. Not that easy to eat bad contracts. Sure a high budget team can do maybe 1 but it really isn’t a good way to put a team together. 
 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

But that is something a team does need to worry about. Look at the angels with a Pujols, Tigers with Cabrera as two examples. Not that easy to eat bad contracts. Sure a high budget team can do maybe 1 but it really isn’t a good way to put a team together. 
 

 

We don't know if it will be bad. Sure, there's a decent chance. If you avoid any long term contracts with a risk of them ending bad, you end up with a bunch of not elite players. 

[Dfan25]

The obvious fit considering the roster is signing Ohtani and trading for Alonso . Not going to happen but it makes so much sense ..

[Rex Buckingham]

Among active players, Soto is 3rd in adjusted OPS+ at 157 , behind Trout (173) and Judge (164). He is 7 years younger than both of them. Acuna, Olson, Bregman, and Seager are the only other under 30 players in the top 28. They're all 16 points or more in OPS+ behind. Even if he is only a DH, Soto is a superstar worth a buttload of $$$ and a few good (not top) prospects

[squally1313]

10 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Soto is not a DH. He’s played 755 games in the COF vs 15 at DH and is Young enough to stay out there a long time

Is your suggestion to trade one of Happ or Seiya in this scenario? Reteach Happ centerfield? If all three are going to be in the lineup, I want Happ and Suzuki in the corners. 

[Rex Buckingham]

It doesn't matter that Soto has played the OF, he does it poorly.  And even if he was average, that's worse than Seiya and Happ, so if he were a Cub his best position is DH and that is perfectly OK because he's a top 3 hitter in the game right now and is generally likely to remain very good because he is only 24 years old.

[Bertz]

Soto's bat is so good that you get him in the door and worry about the defensive stuff later.

I'd guess the most likely play is Ian Happ to 1B.  It's not ideal, but not close to problematic enough to poopoo the idea.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would think you would try to see if Soto can hack it at 1B instead of dramatically downgrading LF or strictly making him DH

[Tim]

Just now, Bertz said:

I'd guess the most likely play is Ian Happ to 1B.  It's not ideal, but not close to problematic enough to poopoo the idea.

Is that because the superstar gets to play where he wants to even if it hurts the team?

Soto to 1B/DH is the easy call here to make the fit work. If Miggy and Pujols can move to 1B, so can Soto.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Tim said:

Is that because the superstar gets to play where he wants to even if it hurts the team?

Yeah more or less.  Soto to 1B is cleaner but it is definitely a lot less likely.  I'll hope for it but my expectation is going to be for Happ to move.

[We Got The Whole 9]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah more or less.  Soto to 1B is cleaner but it is definitely a lot less likely.  I'll hope for it but my expectation is going to be for Happ to move.

I really don't see an org that is living in the contact management/good defense arena doing that 

[Rex Buckingham]

Seriously? Moving a guy who is at least solidly above average in LF to make way for a guy nobody thinks is good in the OF? Soto will likely not care if he ever plays another game in the OF if we give him a buttload of $$$, which we should because he is an awesome hitter. Nobody is paying Juan horsefeathering Soto for his defense.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I really don't see an org that is living in the contact management/good defense arena doing that 

I doubt the team is going to pass on arguably the best hitter in baseball over it.  Like the Astros let Yordan Alvarez play the field ~1/3rd of the time even though he's been a should-be DH since he was a teenager.  You sometimes compromise to add otherworldly offense to the lineup.

[Cuzi]

42 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I really don't see an org that is living in the contact management/good defense arena doing that 

Then they wont trade for Soto in the first place.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Then they wont trade for Soto in the first place.

True. If they don’t feel he is worth the cost, regardless of if he plays first, left or DH, they shouldn’t trade for him.

 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m suggesting maybe most that fans are drunk on the power and dominance of money and the owners. 

Tired: Trade for Juan Soto

Wired: Trade for Mike Trout

[JBears79]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Tired: Trade for Juan Soto

Wired: Trade for Mike Trout

Double Wired: Trade for both

[Bertz]

Let's put a little finer point on this:

- Juan Soto's bat the last three years is approximately 45 runs better than a league average bat over the course of a year

- Over that same period, his glove is, depending on how you weight statcast vs. DRS, and whether you consider his positive 2021 germane, somewhere between -5 and -10

- Ian Happ's glove is between average and +5 in LF, again depending on how you weight which inputs 

- Ian Happ has 11 career games at 1B, and over 100 in the infield more generally.  I think you'd expect Happ to be a better 1B, perhaps much better.  Certainly in the near term

Put it all together, and I think you'd expect the team to be flushing 5-10 runs down the toilet by playing Soto as an outfielder.  But again let's return to that +45 bat.  Pete Alonso's averaged +27 the last three years.  Rhys Hoskins is not quite a +20 bat.  Cody Bellinger was +24 this year (and I personally have my doubts that this is his true talent level).  

Soto's bat is so so so so good.  If there are any necessary evils, like keeping a crappy defender at a more valuable position to make him happy in his walk year, it's totally worth it and better than most alternatives.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Let's put a little finer point on this:

- Juan Soto's bat the last three years is approximately 45 runs better than a league average bat over the course of a year

- Over that same period, his glove is, depending on how you weight statcast vs. DRS, and whether you consider his positive 2021 germane, somewhere between -5 and -10

- Ian Happ's glove is between average and +5 in LF, again depending on how you weight which inputs 

- Ian Happ has 11 career games at 1B, and over 100 in the infield more generally.  I think you'd expect Happ to be a better 1B, perhaps much better.  Certainly in the near term

Put it all together, and I think you'd expect the team to be flushing 5-10 runs down the toilet by playing Soto as an outfielder.  But again let's return to that +45 bat.  Pete Alonso's averaged +27 the last three years.  Rhys Hoskins is not quite a +20 bat.  Cody Bellinger was +24 this year (and I personally have my doubts that this is his true talent level).  

Soto's bat is so so so so good.  If there are any necessary evils, like keeping a crappy defender at a more valuable position to make him happy in his walk year, it's totally worth it and better than most alternatives.

This is kind of where I stand on this. I think it will be far easier for Happ to play first and that is why I would move him there instead of Soto. It has nothing to do with superstar status and how much they pay him. I am also not entirely sold on defensive metrics so I am not as concerned about him in left as some are. I think left field is where most teams hide their worst defensive player. So even Bapp winning a gold glove there doesn’t sway my decision on just moving him to first and letting Soto play left. Happ is also probably a better 1st baseman as well. As long as he hits he earns his pay. 

[BearDown1223]

Let's go with a one stop shop with Cleveland.  They are losing their HOF manager, just went 76-86 and could be looking at a small reset.

Ramierez and Bieber for PCA, Brown, Morel.

Resign Bellinger

Trade Stroman

[Chicago Al]

4 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

Let's go with a one stop shop with Cleveland.  They are losing their HOF manager, just went 76-86 and could be looking at a small reset.

Ramierez and Bieber for PCA, Brown, Morel.

Resign Bellinger

Trade Stroman

Can we swap PCA with Mervis and Wisdom for Morel ?

[BearDown1223]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

Can we swap PCA with Mervis and Wisdom for Morel ?

I'm not great on player values and potential trade values, but that would be light and Cle wouldn't even consider it.  PCA, Brown, Morel might even be light.  

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

Let's go with a one stop shop with Cleveland.  They are losing their HOF manager, just went 76-86 and could be looking at a small reset.

Ramierez and Bieber for PCA, Brown, Morel.

Resign Bellinger

Trade Stroman

They would still need a first baseman. Hoskins or Candelario as a FA. Maybe Mervis? Maybe a FA and Mervis??? One can DH.
Maybe Stroman to the O’s, a prospect or two to the Mets, and Alonso to the Cubs? I know that is way out there and not likely. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Rcal10