Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think it's important to remember that any trade centering around Christopher Morel for Juan Soto would almost assuredly not be in a vacuum. A trade like that, likely keeps the entire-top-9 prospects intact. At that point, we'd still be in a similar situation where we'd have plenty of prospects to pick-choose-and-move for a 2nd splash move (and for perhaps a more controllable player). I'd be very much in favor of still using the prospect capital retained to make that 2nd trade. The offseason, if they go the Juan Soto route, can't be "Juan Soto and a BP arm" and I'd hope the Cubs saw it the same way (I would assume they would in the theory they traded for a player with only one guaranteed year). 

It's why I remain very strongly on the side of being totally cool with a Morel for Soto trade. That isn't to discount Morel, I think Morel is a good player, but unless the Cubs are going to have a change of heart when it comes to Morel at 3b, he's pretty blocked. Swapping him for Soto, while also allowing for a 2nd prospect trade would be a really good way to get creative this offseason in changing our players around.

I agree, if the Cubs hope is "well, IDK, just trade for a year of Juan Soto and that's basically it", that it's probably better to find a better use for Christopher Morel. This is all under the assumption that the team has slightly higher aims than that.

Well said. While I lean towards not trading 5 years of Morel for 1 year of Soto(like Cuzi) If it came with other moves using some of that minor league capital I might like it better. However. As you also mentioned, if the FO believes Morel can handle 3rd base he becomes even more valuable. If that does happen I would rather keep Morel for those years and use minor league talent to acquire a top bat. Or sign Bellinger to play center and trade PCA for a young controlled pitcher. Sign someone like Garver or even Candelario again to play first and DH. 
 

I really think Morel is the key to the off season. If he can handle 3rd that is one spot filled. If they don’t feel he can they probably should move him. 

[Rex Buckingham]

If you somehow have the opportunity to trade Morel straight up for Soto (or even Morel and a prospect around 20th in our system) you take it. He's a freakin superstar. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Glasnow (who is as likely to blow out his arm as he is to pitch well for a whole season) and a prospect who has performed well in the minors, but has no MLB track record? why on earth would you make that deal and not one for Soto? 

Yes, you give up years on control. But having a player like Soto on the roster changes everything. You put him in the lineup everyday and let him be a top 5 hitter in the league. Everyone else becomes more valuable, because when the guys in front of him get on, they're more likely to score, and the guys behind him are more likely to get ABs with guys on base. WAR is an imperfect measure of value that I think probably underestimates guys who do one thing exceptionally well

[Cuzi]

How improved were the Padres hitters with Soto in the lineup?

[Stratos]

On 10/28/2023 at 9:06 PM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Counting stats can help us here, let's take wRC (not wRC+, just the cumulative value) as an example.  Last year:

• Soto: 708 PA, 131 wRC
• Bellinger: 556 PA, 92 wRC
• Morel: 429 PA, 63 wRC
• Wisdom: 302 PA, 40 wRC
• Madrigal: 294 PA, 30 wRC

This shows us that from an offensive perspective, Soto is so good that the other player in the tandem only needs to be as good as fringe roster guys in order to match.  Plus this comparison includes an offensive level from Bellinger that we aren't really expecting to repeat, and obviously the goal will be to shoot higher than Madrigal/Wisdom with the other starting spot in this scenario.  Yes there's a defensive consideration, but since we're talking about bottom of the defensive spectrum(and poor defenders at that) aside from Bellinger's CF(which we'd expect elite defense from via PCA for a chunk of the season anyway), that impact is muted.  If you want to say it's not worth it for potentially one year of Soto that's one thing(I'd disagree but I get it), but if you want the best possible team in 2024 then given the roster and financial circumstances I think it points pretty clearly to Soto.

Soto is a bad fielder, he's a DH, we can't just throw that out, plus the fact that he's a poor baserunner.  I'm going by projected WAR for 2024.  Bellinger's WAR was muted this year because he played so much 1B, but yes has a good chance to regress at least a bit offensively.  Morel played mostly only DH also, and didn't play a full season on the Cubs anyways and will get more than 429 PA, and has potential to get better offensively and defensively.  If he can play just average defense and learn to not whiff on every non-fastball on the outer-half because he's trying to pull every ball he sees then he can be an all-star.

Bellinger adds a lot of value given he can play 2 positions fairly well where we have holes next year:  CF and 1B.  Bellinger is of course only one example.  You're basically trading Morel + 33m for Soto.  That 33m could go towards Yamamoto + a good reliever, or towards an Ohtani contract, or to Candalario + Mitch Garver, or whatever.

DH isn't a big priority since anyone in the org can fill that (Mervis? Canario? Morel? Rotate regulars to give rest?), but they need a 3B, CF, 1B, SP, RP etc, and if you acquire Soto you're basically taking 2 or 3 good options at those positions off the roster to have a great hitter at the least valuable position that anyone who can hit can fill adequately.

If Soto and Morel made the same salary next year you make that trade in a heartbeat, but Soto making 33m and the fact Morel makes the minimum is a major factor.  Soto doesn't have a ton of surplus.

 

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Soto is a bad fielder, he's a DH, we can't just throw that out, plus the fact that he's a poor baserunner.  I'm going by projected WAR for 2024.  Bellinger's WAR was muted this year because he played so much 1B, but yes has a good chance to regress at least a bit offensively.  Morel played mostly only DH also, and didn't play a full season on the Cubs anyways and will get more than 429 PA, and has potential to get better offensively and defensively.  If he can play just average defense and learn to not whiff on every non-fastball on the outer-half because he's trying to pull every ball he sees then he can be an all-star.

Bellinger adds a lot of value given he can play 2 positions fairly well where we have holes next year:  CF and 1B.  Bellinger is of course only one example.  You're basically trading Morel + 33m for Soto.  That 33m could go towards Yamamoto + a good reliever, or towards an Ohtani contract, or to Candalario + Mitch Garver, or whatever.

DH isn't a big priority since anyone in the org can fill that (Mervis? Canario? Morel? Rotate regulars to give rest?), but they need a 3B, CF, 1B, SP, RP etc, and if you acquire Soto you're basically taking 2 or 3 good options at those positions off the roster to have a great hitter at the least valuable position that anyone who can hit can fill adequately.

If Soto and Morel made the same salary next year you make that trade in a heartbeat, but Soto making 33m and the fact Morel makes the minimum is a major factor.  Soto doesn't have a ton of surplus.

 

Not picking on you, but I see stuff like this and I think people don't *really* understand how good of a hitter Soto is.  It's like the Ron Swanson "give me all of the bacon and eggs you have" speech.  I'm afraid what you heard is "Soto's a really good hitter", but that doesn't do it justice, he is a historically notable hitter.

Soto's career wRC+ is 154.  To put that in context a bit:

- Only 5 times seasons this century has a Cub matched or exceeded that 154 mark: Sammy Sosa 3x, Derrek Lee in 2005, and Anthony Rizzo in 2014

-  No, i did not forget Kris Bryant.  His MVP season was "only" a 148

- Remember Nick Castellanos' absurd half season with us?   He had a 152 wRC+

- Paul Goldschmidt is maybe the most notorious Cub killer of the last 15 years. He has a 157 wRC+ career against the Cubs

- Miguel Cabrera's last great season was 2016.  Through that season he had a career 153 wRC+

- Manny Ramirez had a career 153 wRC+

- Ronald Acuna has a career 143 wRC+.  Mookie Betts 140.  Bryce Harper 142. Those are the absolute stars of the game right now and there's very real daylight between what Soto and those guys do offensively

Soto's a bit of a putz in the outfield (though let's not pretend like he's some Adam Dunn-esque disaster out there), but he is such an INCREDIBLE hitter and that it far more than makes up for it.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think it's important to remember that any trade centering around Christopher Morel for Juan Soto would almost assuredly not be in a vacuum. A trade like that, likely keeps the entire-top-9 prospects intact. At that point, we'd still be in a similar situation where we'd have plenty of prospects to pick-choose-and-move for a 2nd splash move (and for perhaps a more controllable player). I'd be very much in favor of still using the prospect capital retained to make that 2nd trade. The offseason, if they go the Juan Soto route, can't be "Juan Soto and a BP arm" and I'd hope the Cubs saw it the same way (I would assume they would in the theory they traded for a player with only one guaranteed year). 

It's why I remain very strongly on the side of being totally cool with a Morel for Soto trade. That isn't to discount Morel, I think Morel is a good player, but unless the Cubs are going to have a change of heart when it comes to Morel at 3b, he's pretty blocked. Swapping him for Soto, while also allowing for a 2nd prospect trade would be a really good way to get creative this offseason in changing our players around.

I agree, if the Cubs hope is "well, IDK, just trade for a year of Juan Soto and that's basically it", that it's probably better to find a better use for Christopher Morel. This is all under the assumption that the team has slightly higher aims than that.

I think if the Cubs want to get better for 2024 they need to trade prospects and especially ones that aren't going to make much or any impact on the Cubs in 2024.  In a Morel for Soto swap you're adding Soto but removing Morel who will already contribute on the MLB roster in 2024, while also eating 33m in spending space.  Morel's 2.5 WAR (or whatever) is gone, and you add Soto's 5-6 WAR and remove 33m of payroll to spend in FA.  We just paid 33m + 5 more years of Morel to add an extra 3 WAR to the team in 2024.  I just can't see how the math make sense if we only have Soto for 2024.

Any GM can easily use that 33m to add 3 WAR in FA and keep Morel.   Heck you can do it for 23m, and have 10m more to improve the team plus keep Morel.  You could sign Candelario, you could sign one of the quality SP that are going to be FA this year.  I agree with you that Soto being an all-star/superstar doesn't factor into the math at all, except he may sell some jerseys, which is going into Ricketts' pocket anyways.

[Stratos]

Just now, Bertz said:

Not picking on you, but I see stuff like this and I think people don't *really* understand how good of a hitter Soto is.  It's like the Ron Swanson "give me all of the bacon and eggs you have" speech.  I'm afraid what you heard is "Soto's a really good hitter", but that doesn't do it justice, he is a historically notable hitter.

.....

Soto's a bit of a putz in the outfield (though let's not pretend like he's some Adam Dunn-esque disaster out there), but he is such an INCREDIBLE hitter and that it far more than makes up for it.

Soto is indeed an incredible hitter.  But what matters at the end of the day is what total value he adds to a team.  How many runs/wins he adds.  He's worth 5-6 WAR, it doesn't matter how he gets to 5-6 WAR.

We can't just admire his amazing hitting and ignore the fielding and baserunning, which are bad and eat a portion of the value he adds with the bat.  He could be a good hitter + a great fielder, or an average hitter + a great fielder + great baserunner and add the same total value to the team.  The breakdown is irrelevant, what matters is the total value he produces as a player.  Silver Slugger and Home Run derby awards and batting titles are fun but they aren't a part of the math equation for teams winning games.  Take 30 hits away from Soto so he loses the batting title and Silver Slugger and give those 30 hits to Happ and it doesn't really make any difference to value added/subtracted to the team.  30 hits are 30 hits.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you don’t make a move for an elite player unless it is maximally efficient, you will not acquire those players and struggle to make the leap unless you do something extremely uncommon through the farm.  We can’t choose the exact shape of that player, and there is an opportunity cost to waiting given the window they’ve created for the next 3 years.

 

 The Cubs have built their roster to the point where they have enough depth and few enough holes that they will get more benefit from one 5 win player instead of two 3 win players.  They have a number of the latter and it’s easier to stumble into the latter.  They have an extremely deep farm system that you can expect to have a steady flow of the latter in the future.

 

Soto being a terrible defender would be a lot more relevant if the team didn’t already have a number of good defenders and well rounded profiles.  They are very well set up to take on Soto’s “lopsided” value since he doesn’t have to field and he provides a lineup anchor they cannot find elsewhere unless you want to pay an even higher cost for Ohtani.

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think if the Cubs want to get better for 2024 they need to trade prospects and especially ones that aren't going to make much or any impact on the Cubs in 2024.  In a Morel for Soto swap you're adding Soto but removing Morel who will already contribute on the MLB roster in 2024, while also eating 33m in spending space.  Morel's 2.5 WAR (or whatever) is gone, and you add Soto's 5-6 WAR and remove 33m of payroll to spend in FA.  We just paid 33m + 5 more years of Morel to add an extra 3 WAR to the team in 2024.  I just can't see how the math make sense if we only have Soto for 2024.

Any GM can easily use that 33m to add 3 WAR in FA and keep Morel.   Heck you can do it for 23m, and have 10m more to improve the team plus keep Morel.  You could sign Candelario, you could sign one of the quality SP that are going to be FA this year.  I agree with you that Soto being an all-star/superstar doesn't factor into the math at all, except he may sell some jerseys, which is going into Ricketts' pocket anyways.

Is Christopher Morel really impacting the MLB roster that much as a (career) 114 wRC+ DH?  He was worth 1.4 fWAR last year in 430 PAs. That's not nothing, but the league average DH was a 106 wRC+. This comes down to "Do the Cubs thinks Christopher Morel can play 3b?". They didn't last year. Maybe he needs an offseason to convert his throwing angle, or maybe the Cubs just don't think he can. If the Cubs are going to use him as a DH, you can find slightly above average DHs' pretty readily, and 1.4 fWAR is very replaceable. That's why this math hinges on "can he play 3b?". He has no other path to playing time as of today with the Cub. So for the Cubs, the value of Christopher Morel holds different math than for the Padres if they move Kim to 3b and have Morel play 2b. Or if they believe he can be a 3b.

Also, it's not as easy of math as "Candelario + SP = Soto".  Soto is one player, one roster spot, one 5 fWAR player. He's a much better player than either of those, and combined, he's still better because it allows another player to bring value to the roster. He also keeps the entire rest of the really good prospects intact, assuming that it's Morel leading, and prospects from the 10-20 range that fill out the trade. You can use that saving to then trade for a cheaper player (monetarily) and not even mess with FA. And while it's not something we should be chasing, he'll recoup a 45 FV prospect in the offseason if he doesn't resign with the QO, so he's not an entire loss.

We have to also remember that any trade for Juan Soto has nothing to do with an extension for Juan Soto. When we're trading with the Padres, the thing we get is one year of Juan Soto. It does not change his trade value; there will be no sign-and-trade. The trade doesn't get better or worse value if they end up extending Juan Soto, that contract is it's own value. I think it's important to separate the two concepts. The reason someone like Morel can headline a Juan Soto trade is purely because he's only 1 year of control. 

The Cubs would have paid Christopher Morel for Juan Soto. But that's the cost of doing business. And at this stage, it's time for the Cubs to start acquiring elite players if the cost isn't insanely prohibitive. I like Christopher Morel, and I think he's got the outlook of a pretty good MLB player. I don't think it's a low cost. I also don't think it's a cost that would prohibit me from getting one of the absolute best hitters in baseball, even if there's risk it's only for one year.

Edited October 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Cuzi]

The only way I'm trading for 1 year of Soto is if I'm literally going all in on 2024, which would be a complete 180 on anything Hoyer has said he believes in.

That would mean re-signing Bellinger. Signing Chapman. Signing an actual closer like Hader. Signing/trading a legit TOR pitcher. That would leave 1B as the only question mark on the roster going into the season, but its time to let Mervis sink or swim and if he sinks you resolve it at the deadline.

Nothing Hoyer has done to this point tells me hes capable of going that off the rails. He is not going to go full blown 2022 Texas Rangers.

We'll trade for Soto, Stroman will opt in, pick up Hendricks option, maybe sign a reclamation pitcher like Sean Manaea, maybe sign a reliever like Matt Moore, and then we'll be starting to get into uncomfortable waters of starting to spend too much money in one offseason so we'll look at Gio Urshela to play 3B, Michael Taylor to play CF, Mervis and Wisdom will platoon at 1B, and we'll cap it off by signing the token injured pitcher that hasnt pitched in 2 years Drew Pomeranz.

We'll sell the horsefeathers out of season tickets because Juan Soto is now the face of the team for 1 year. Everyone is going to be super excited. Meanwhile we've only added maybe a couple of projected wins to an 80 win team.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[CubinNY]

I don't think we will have anything to worry about. According to Bob Nightengale, the Padres are aggressively trying to sign him to a contract extension. But if they cannot the Cubs are not going to meet the demands of the Padres. They will have discussions and then if he's traded (big if), it will be to some other team. I don't think he's a good match for this team or the owner's philosophy of how he wants to build a team. He doesn't have a position because they chose to extend Ian Happ and give him a no-trade rider. 

I'm not saying this is a Cubs PR stunt, but if the Cubs were going to have a PR stunt it would look similar to this. 

[Tim]

How much would people be willing to trade for Jake Burger? He's not a perfect match for Morel, but he's pretty close. Bigger power, less patience, similar defensive challenges, similar amount of control, etc. Would anyone shape their entire offseason based around Jake Burger?

[Tim]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

The only way I'm trading for 1 year of Soto is if I'm literally going all in on 2024, which would be a complete 180 on anything Hoyer has said he believes in.

That would mean re-signing Bellinger. Signing Chapman. Signing an actual closer like Hader. Signing/trading a legit TOR pitcher. That would leave 1B as the only question mark on the roster going into the season, but its time to let Mervis sink or swim and if he sinks you resolve it at the deadline.

Nothing Hoyer has done to this point tells me hes capable of going that off the rails. He is not going to go full blown 2022 Texas Rangers.

We'll trade for Soto, Stroman will opt in, pick up Hendricks option, maybe sign a reclamation pitcher like Sean Manaea, maybe sign a reliever like Matt Moore, and then we'll be starting to get into uncomfortable waters of starting to spend too much money in one offseason so we'll look at Gio Urshela to play 3B, Michael Taylor to play CF, Mervis and Wisdom will platoon at 1B, and we'll cap it off by signing the token injured pitcher that hasnt pitched in 2 years Drew Pomeranz.

We'll sell the horsefeathers out of season tickets because Juan Soto is now the face of the team for 1 year. Everyone is going to be super excited. Meanwhile we've only added maybe a couple of projected wins to an 80 win team.

Do you still say this if we traded prospects for Soto instead of Morel? I believe you said earlier that you'd trade prospects for him. Is that not the case any longer?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

The only way I'm trading for 1 year of Soto is if I'm literally going all in on 2024, which would be a complete 180 on anything Hoyer has said he believes in.

This is an arbitrary framing that doesn't really mean anything.  Did Jed go all in on 2023?  He spent 17 million on a 1 year reclamation project, signed multiple relievers to 1 year deals, and added multiple mid-30s guys to 2 year deals. Plus at the deadline he traded for a rental.  The answer is he didn't by any real definition of the phrase, and by the same token trading away an averageish pre-arb major leaguer for a star isn't making a huge sacrifice in 2025 and beyond either even if he only has a draft pick and a bunch of spending money to show a year from now.  

 

Yes, it's a more competitively aggressive move than trading for someone with multiple years of team control or signing a player long term.  Those options have tradeoffs too, trades having a higher player cost and paying FAs for post-prime/unproductive years.  For all 3 we cannot make our perfect option in the lab and acquire them, we have to see what's actually available, and in this particular offseason there are not many alternatives to the impact that Soto would provide.  I'm very open to other options, I don't *love* the treadmill of having to replace various players annually, and paying Soto his money will create more narrow paths with other acquisitions. But that doesn't mean that it's foolish or out of character to pursue him because of the caliber of player he is.

[Cuzi]

No, Jed did not go all in for 2023. He also scrapped his entire off-season plan at the deadline because he was too scared to sell when the Cubs were in a stones throw of first place in a bad division. He didn't believe in this team. That's why he only chose to get Candelario and some mediocre reliever in Cuas.

Jed has been running this entire rebuild like a rudderless ship. He doesn't know where he wants to go. He's still signing guys to deals he intends to flip like Stroman and Bellinger. Then he backs out of actually flipping them when he's holding the best pieces on the market in a market that is paying premium prices. He'll say he doesn't want to be in the sweepstakes for top tier FAs and doesn't want to sign long deals and then he turns around and signs Dansby Swanson to a 7 year deal to kick off the Cubs window. Then follow that up by sticking with Patrick Wisdom at 3B, signing Mancini and Barnhart to 2 year deals, and signing Hosmer.

My very first post on this board was about how garbage and meaningless the deadline was. But the majority of people on here were so damn excited about getting "the best bat available." A bat that was only the best by choice of the Cubs, because the Cubs were going for it, but not really.

The ending to the season couldn't have been a more justifiable ending to the cowardly approach at the deadline. Stroman turned into a turd and got injured. The best bat available was worth 0.2 WAR on the Cubs. And the team choked away a 93% chance to make the playoffs.

"How about another joke, Murray..."

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Yep, this has felt like a planted rumor for publicity from the start. That we’re seriously debating Christopher Morel for Juan Soto because of the sweet, powerful control should be a hint the Padres have no actual baseball reasons to move him 

*That* said the rumors are a stunt to drum up offseason expextactions which feels like a great sign (as does the President of Cubs Baseball, himself, declaring the long term books are clear) from a franchise usually pretending to be a mom and pop business that can’t afford to do anything but plan a Future built The Right Way by losing 

I seriously doubt the Padres extend Soto. IMO he will be traded. And I see both sides of the argument of if Morel should go for Soto. While I agree with Cuzi that I wouldn’t want to trade 5 years of control for 1 year if Soto I do respect other people’s opinions. The problem with this discussion is people tend to try to prove how smart they are and cut down the other POV. That is what I really dislike about this discussion. 
For me it comes down to what the Cubs plan is for Morel. If they work him all off season at 3rd base and they feel he can handle it, I would much rather trade a prospect(s) for Soto. And not a top 4 or 5 either. Or don’t even trade for Soto. Look for another trade option moving some prospects. However, if the Cubs do not feel Morel can play 3rd base, maybe they do move him for Soto or another major league talent. 
To me 5 years of Morel is more valuable than 1 year if Soto on this team for Soto’s money. But I do respect those whose POV differ from mine. 

[Bertz]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

Soto is a bad fielder, he's a DH, we can't just throw that out, plus the fact that he's a poor baserunner.  I'm going by projected WAR for 2024. 

First, where are you getting 2024 projections?  Fangraphs doesn't have them up yet, unless you're looking at the 2024 ZiPS projections that were done prior to this season?  Don't do that those are woefully out of date at this point.

But we can math out this defense angle too.  And spoiler alert, it still says the team is substantially improved adding Soto over basically any alternative (sans Ohtani)

Juan Soto was 45 runs better than an average hitter last year.  That's right around his three year average (46 runs).  On defense, he was either -8 or -6 last year depending on your source.  His 3 year average is -5 or -2 respectively, but we'll assume the worst and say what he did last year is the baseline.  Oh and let's take it a step further and debit him for the extra time at DH Happ and Suzuki are going to have.  Both guys are a couple runs above average, so let's say the defensive cost for Soto is a flat -10 runs.  That means that net he's producing ~35 runs above average per year.  Let's compare that to some alternatives:

Christopher Morel - +10 runs of offense last year but scaling up to about +15 if he had played a full year.  But keep in mind unless he magically figures out 3B no defensive value

Pete Alonso - A +15 hitter last year, but closer to +25 over the lat 3.  He's also a slight plus at 1B so let's just say +25 to have a nice round number

Cody Bellinger - He's a +5 defender at either 1st or CF.  He was a +24 hitter last year, but deep into the negative the two years before that

Matt Chapman - A +5ish hitter and a +10ish defender.  And I'd give him some extra credit given how thin 3B is both on the FA market and in the org currently 

So even if you look at defense Soto (or Ohtani, the math is all pretty similar for him) is easily the most impactful move the team can make this winter.  He's not a perfect positional fit, far from it, but thanks to the depth on the roster and the fact that there's enough resources this offseason for a second bat that concern is pretty muted.

The perfect move this offseason would have been Rafael Devers, but unfortunately he's a cautionary tale of "you can't just wait for the perfect time to add whoever you want."

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^^^ Ohtani > Devers

Those aren’t all the Padres’ options! A QO and a pick keeps the chains moving too, is a much less baseball costly path to a Morel-esque player plus a better look 

right. People are running with this when the Padres have no track record of doing it and a long track record of doing the opposite. 

[gocubs218]

Not sure where this Nightengale stuff is coming from but he legit just said yesterday Soto was most likely to be traded this off-season. 

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Cuzi said:

The only way I'm trading for 1 year of Soto is if I'm literally going all in on 2024, which would be a complete 180 on anything Hoyer has said he believes in.

 

If you're saying that 2025-2030 or whatever Cubs without Christopher Morel don't have any chance at contention, then honestly they're probably screwed for that time frame either way. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The rumors that the Padres are going to be slashing payroll and that Soto is the likely move have originated in San Diego and been around since the trade deadline, regardless of where he would be going.  The Yankees showed up as a potential destination in rumors before the Cubs the last few days.  This is not a PR or Cubs-inspired phenomenon.

[Tim]

The rumor is that the reason SD can't sign Soto is because of MLB's debt ceiling rules. In order to sign Soto, they'd have to move one of their other massive contracts. It's much easier for them to just trade Soto since he's the one that is a pending FA.

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 hour ago, gocubs218 said:

Not sure where this Nightengale stuff is coming from but he legit just said yesterday Soto was most likely to be traded this off-season. 

Yeah I can't find anything about him saying the Cubs won't be involved. His usatoday article today mentioned that mlb execs expect soto to be traded. 

[Stratos]

23 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If you don’t make a move for an elite player unless it is maximally efficient, you will not acquire those players and struggle to make the leap unless you do something extremely uncommon through the farm.  We can’t choose the exact shape of that player, and there is an opportunity cost to waiting given the window they’ve created for the next 3 years.

 

 The Cubs have built their roster to the point where they have enough depth and few enough holes that they will get more benefit from one 5 win player instead of two 3 win players.  They have a number of the latter and it’s easier to stumble into the latter.  They have an extremely deep farm system that you can expect to have a steady flow of the latter in the future.

 

Soto being a terrible defender would be a lot more relevant if the team didn’t already have a number of good defenders and well rounded profiles.  They are very well set up to take on Soto’s “lopsided” value since he doesn’t have to field and he provides a lineup anchor they cannot find elsewhere unless you want to pay an even higher cost for Ohtani.

The # of good defenders on the team already is not relevant, nor the number with "well-rounded profiles". What matters is the total value of all the players on the team in terms of creating and preventing runs.  Soto is a 5-6 WAR player, his value is 5-6 wins above a replacement player, it doesn't really matter how it breaks down.  If he DH'ing for the Cubs, which he will most of the time, his value/WAR drops because it's easier to replace a DH than any other position.  According to fangraphs, a LF (or RF) is penalized -7.5 runs in value, and a DH is worth -17.5 runs:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/explaining-win-values-part-three/

The issue with the Cubs isn't spending and payroll, they spent enough last year to win and will again this year, their issue in 2023 was efficiency.  They desperately need more surplus and efficiency.  They clearly overspent on Mancini and Smyly who were terrible, Barnhart also, Fulmer/Boxberger plus Rowan Wick/Adrian Sampson were busts, Taillon underperformed pretty badly in his first year, Rios and Hosmer were crap, Stroman arguably under-performed, and Heyward and Bote provided nothing for the millions they made.  That's almost half the payroll in either under-performance or total waste.

They got surplus from Nico, Steele, Happ, Bellinger, plus a few pen guys and less significant players (Assad, Morel, Tauchman etc), but the pen was useless at holding leads half the year because they didn't spent enough on late-inning depth.  The difference between 2016 and 2023 wasn't payroll, it was efficiency and surplus.  The whole point of being a GM is squeezing as many wins out of every million spent as possible.

I'm not at all against a Soto trade, even on a 1-year, but trading our DH (who can also play middle INF and potentially 3B) who was 3rd on the team in wRC+ last year for a much better DH plus the cost of 33m is not the impact move I think some people think it is.  Soto at 33m arguably still has some surplus, it's a good acquisition.  But Soto on a 1-year is a win-now move so we need as much MLB talent and surplus as possible in 2024, so as i've said they should trade a prospect that won't contribute in 2024, like Triantos or Arias, or Rojas etc., not trading away our 3rd best hitter (#2 now that Bellinger is FA) who makes league minimum.

[Stratos]

19 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Is Christopher Morel really impacting the MLB roster that much as a (career) 114 wRC+ DH?  He was worth 1.4 fWAR last year in 430 PAs. That's not nothing, but the league average DH was a 106 wRC+. This comes down to "Do the Cubs thinks Christopher Morel can play 3b?". They didn't last year. Maybe he needs an offseason to convert his throwing angle, or maybe the Cubs just don't think he can. If the Cubs are going to use him as a DH, you can find slightly above average DHs' pretty readily, and 1.4 fWAR is very replaceable. That's why this math hinges on "can he play 3b?". He has no other path to playing time as of today with the Cub. So for the Cubs, the value of Christopher Morel holds different math than for the Padres if they move Kim to 3b and have Morel play 2b. Or if they believe he can be a 3b.

Also, it's not as easy of math as "Candelario + SP = Soto".  Soto is one player, one roster spot, one 5 fWAR player. He's a much better player than either of those, and combined, he's still better because it allows another player to bring value to the roster. He also keeps the entire rest of the really good prospects intact, assuming that it's Morel leading, and prospects from the 10-20 range that fill out the trade. You can use that saving to then trade for a cheaper player (monetarily) and not even mess with FA. And while it's not something we should be chasing, he'll recoup a 45 FV prospect in the offseason if he doesn't resign with the QO, so he's not an entire loss.

We have to also remember that any trade for Juan Soto has nothing to do with an extension for Juan Soto. When we're trading with the Padres, the thing we get is one year of Juan Soto. It does not change his trade value; there will be no sign-and-trade. The trade doesn't get better or worse value if they end up extending Juan Soto, that contract is it's own value. I think it's important to separate the two concepts. The reason someone like Morel can headline a Juan Soto trade is purely because he's only 1 year of control. 

The Cubs would have paid Christopher Morel for Juan Soto. But that's the cost of doing business. And at this stage, it's time for the Cubs to start acquiring elite players if the cost isn't insanely prohibitive. I like Christopher Morel, and I think he's got the outlook of a pretty good MLB player. I don't think it's a low cost. I also don't think it's a cost that would prohibit me from getting one of the absolute best hitters in baseball, even if there's risk it's only for one year.

See my reply to Transmogrified Tiger.