Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[UMFan83]

Love the Foreman signing. Very underrated though like others pointed out I was hoping we’d have a better pass catching option.

[scarey]

Is Poles just setting up for 2024 free agency?

 

At first glance, the free agency class currently looks ridiculously stacked... especially compared to 2023. I'm sure some of the better players will get locked up and tagged, but there's a lot of good players in that class.

 

The Bears are currently set up to have the largest pool for free agent signings again next year. They also have Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair at the last year of their deals with a collective cap hit of just over $32M.

 

We heard a lot about this miserable FA class. I know we're pretty universally disappointed with the results, but we might end up much happier a year from now.

[bjam12]

Is Poles just setting up for 2024 free agency?

 

At first glance, the free agency class currently looks ridiculously stacked... especially compared to 2023. I'm sure some of the better players will get locked up and tagged, but there's a lot of good players in that class.

 

The Bears are currently set up to have the largest pool for free agent signings again next year. They also have Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair at the last year of their deals with a collective cap hit of just over $32M.

 

We heard a lot about this miserable FA class. I know we're pretty universally disappointed with the results, but we might end up much happier a year from now.

 

Yes, I think you’re spot on.

Edited March 17, 2023 by bjam12

[UMFan83]

Is Poles just setting up for 2024 free agency?

 

At first glance, the free agency class currently looks ridiculously stacked... especially compared to 2023. I'm sure some of the better players will get locked up and tagged, but there's a lot of good players in that class.

 

The Bears are currently set up to have the largest pool for free agent signings again next year. They also have Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair at the last year of their deals with a collective cap hit of just over $32M.

 

We heard a lot about this miserable FA class. I know we're pretty universally disappointed with the results, but we might end up much happier a year from now.

 

I’ve thought that too. They’ll also have 2 first round picks with at least one of them hopefully being top 10.

 

But I don’t think Poles is a splashy FA guy in general. Not sure if he’ll ever make the splash you think he makes. I think he is carefully building this thing up and doesn’t necessarily have a timeline in his mind. He absolutely should be trying to win ASAP with Fields on his rookie deal though

[jersey cubs fan]

Is Poles just setting up for 2024 free agency?

 

At first glance, the free agency class currently looks ridiculously stacked... especially compared to 2023. I'm sure some of the better players will get locked up and tagged, but there's a lot of good players in that class.

 

The Bears are currently set up to have the largest pool for free agent signings again next year. They also have Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair at the last year of their deals with a collective cap hit of just over $32M.

 

We heard a lot about this miserable FA class. I know we're pretty universally disappointed with the results, but we might end up much happier a year from now.

 

I’ve thought that too. They’ll also have 2 first round picks with at least one of them hopefully being top 10.

 

But I don’t think Poles is a splashy FA guy in general. Not sure if he’ll ever make the splash you think he makes. I think he is carefully building this thing up and doesn’t necessarily have a timeline in his mind. He absolutely should be trying to win ASAP with Fields on his rookie deal though

“At least one hopefully top 10?”

 

It better not be 2.

[gflore34]

Is Poles just setting up for 2024 free agency?

 

At first glance, the free agency class currently looks ridiculously stacked... especially compared to 2023. I'm sure some of the better players will get locked up and tagged, but there's a lot of good players in that class.

 

The Bears are currently set up to have the largest pool for free agent signings again next year. They also have Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair at the last year of their deals with a collective cap hit of just over $32M.

 

We heard a lot about this miserable FA class. I know we're pretty universally disappointed with the results, but we might end up much happier a year from now.

 

I’ve thought that too. They’ll also have 2 first round picks with at least one of them hopefully being top 10.

 

But I don’t think Poles is a splashy FA guy in general. Not sure if he’ll ever make the splash you think he makes. I think he is carefully building this thing up and doesn’t necessarily have a timeline in his mind. He absolutely should be trying to win ASAP with Fields on his rookie deal though

“At least one hopefully top 10?”

 

It better not be 2.

 

It's possible even an obviously improved Bears team could still draft in the top 10. They may only win 6-8 games, I think that's OK, believe many of us know the rebuild is going to take at least this year's FA and draft along with next year's. Poles should be able to put a markedly improved team on the field this season I think that's all the fans can demand of him.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's possible even an obviously improved Bears team could still draft in the top 10. They may only win 6-8 games, I think that's OK, believe many of us know the rebuild is going to take at least this year's FA and draft along with next year's. Poles should be able to put a markedly improved team on the field this season I think that's all the fans can demand of him.

I think fans can and should demand a winning team. There is absolutely no excuse for a multi year rebuild in the nfl. They were bad in 2021. They were bad in 2022. They had the ability to drastically improve the team in the interim and just because they chose not to does not mean it was inevitable. A 6 win 2023 is a disaster and a situation where you have to look to replace the qb, GM, HC.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

[Tim]

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

So you would definitely take the under on a 6.5 win season right now? I sense an opportunity to win an internet bet here.

[jersey cubs fan]

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

And that’s by choice so the people that made the choice should be held accountable.

 

They have an outside chance of being a dangerous offense with a variety of weapons. It seems like the goal is to overwhelm the opposition with competent skill position guys. You won’t win 12 games that way, but you can compete in every game.

 

4 top 64 picks should net you 4 starters. It won’t, but it should.

[David]

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

So you would definitely take the under on a 6.5 win season right now? I sense an opportunity to win an internet bet here.

 

For what little it's worth in football with the sample sizes involved, they played more like a 5 win team than a 3 win team last year based on pythag. The eye test would seem to agree with some of the games they blew or had a chance to win late.

 

They are already going to be markedly improved in some areas - and weaker in none of significance - as compared to last year and the draft should bolster the roster some more too. I have no idea where it's going to end up at this point and obviously the next couple of months will determine a lot.

 

Oh, also, the Packers are going to be very bad and the Vikings are not actually good so who knows.

Edited March 17, 2023 by David

[minnesotacubsfan]

How many 1 score games did they lose in 2022?

 

I'd agree wit gooney that a multi year nfl rebuild is foolish. Losing starts to set in as the culture and becomes expected. But I also feel that the moves they've made should flip the script on those one score loses

[WrigleyField 22]

I think the "as currently constructed" requires the huge disclaimer that a lot of other teams are still partially constructed too.

 

Right now the biggest issue is going to be the DL. That's a DL that can lose them a lot of games.

 

But as David noted the 3 win team was somewhat unlucky as is. If they end up a baseline 8 win team a 6-10 actual range is all reasonably in play because there's just so much variance on a average team over a 17 game schedule. I don't think 8 win baseline would be enough based on the resources they had. They're gonna have A LOT of resources again next year. They were always gonna have strong assets, but it's gonna be a "no excuses" amount.

[minnesotacubsfan]

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

So you would definitely take the under on a 6.5 win season right now? I sense an opportunity to win an internet bet here.

 

For what little it's worth in football with the sample sizes involved, they played more like a 5 win team than a 3 win team last year based on pythag. The eye test would seem to agree with some of the games they blew or had a chance to win late.

 

They are already going to be markedly improved in some areas - and weaker in none of significance - as compared to last year and the draft should bolster the roster some more too. I have no idea where it's going to end up at this point and obviously the next couple of months will determine a lot.

 

Oh, also, the Packers are going to be very bad and the Vikings are not actually good so who knows.

 

Detroit looks much better, however

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

So you would definitely take the under on a 6.5 win season right now? I sense an opportunity to win an internet bet here.

 

For what little it's worth in football with the sample sizes involved, they played more like a 5 win team than a 3 win team last year based on pythag. The eye test would seem to agree with some of the games they blew or had a chance to win late.

 

They are already going to be markedly improved in some areas - and weaker in none of significance - as compared to last year and the draft should bolster the roster some more too. I have no idea where it's going to end up at this point and obviously the next couple of months will determine a lot.

 

Oh, also, the Packers are going to be very bad and the Vikings are not actually good so who knows.

 

It's hard to make a fair comparison because they gutted the roster halfway through, but if you take the average strength, the D-line will be noticeably worse.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think the "as currently constructed" requires the huge disclaimer that a lot of other teams are still partially constructed too.

 

Right now the biggest issue is going to be the DL. That's a DL that can lose them a lot of games.

 

But as David noted the 3 win team was somewhat unlucky as is. If they end up a baseline 8 win team a 6-10 actual range is all reasonably in play because there's just so much variance on a average team over a 17 game schedule. I don't think 8 win baseline would be enough based on the resources they had. They're gonna have A LOT of resources again next year. They were always gonna have strong assets, but it's gonna be a "no excuses" amount.

 

Sure, they were a little unlucky. You have to be a both bad *and* unlucky to go 3-14, very few teams are a "true" 3-win talent or whatever.

 

But the D-line is horrible ,there's still some question marks in the back 7 too (Gordon and Sanborn, looking at you). The offensive line looks an awful lot like the historically bad offensive line we just ran out.

 

And we still don't really know what we have in Fields. He's an unpredictable combinations of strengths (Hester-like open-field running from a QB, good deep ball, great leadership/work ethic) and weaknesses (slow processor, wonky mechanics that lead to inaccuracy on short and intermediate throws, a tendency to take sacks by dragging out plays looking for home runs).

 

I can see some upside for this roster, but I can definitely see the downside too.

 

The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way.

[Tim]

Slight correction - Fields' accuracy on intermediate balls is fine (middle of pack). He just hasn't been throwing them.

[Tim]

The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way.

Does that mean you're not going to bet the under on 6.5 wins after saying this:

 

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

[David]

So you would definitely take the under on a 6.5 win season right now? I sense an opportunity to win an internet bet here.

 

For what little it's worth in football with the sample sizes involved, they played more like a 5 win team than a 3 win team last year based on pythag. The eye test would seem to agree with some of the games they blew or had a chance to win late.

 

They are already going to be markedly improved in some areas - and weaker in none of significance - as compared to last year and the draft should bolster the roster some more too. I have no idea where it's going to end up at this point and obviously the next couple of months will determine a lot.

 

Oh, also, the Packers are going to be very bad and the Vikings are not actually good so who knows.

 

It's hard to make a fair comparison because they gutted the roster halfway through, but if you take the average strength, the D-line will be noticeably worse.

 

gutted (the DL) halfway through how? by trading robert quinn?

 

it was horrid all year.

Edited March 17, 2023 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How many 1 score games did they lose in 2022?

 

I'd agree wit gooney that a multi year nfl rebuild is foolish. Losing starts to set in as the culture and becomes expected. But I also feel that the moves they've made should flip the script on those one score loses

 

We lost 6 one-score games, and won 2. 2-6 is about one fewer win than you'd expect from a below average team. They had a -137 point differential, one point behind (ahead?) of the Colts for dead last. They were probably a little unlucky (lucky? It got us the no. 1 pick) but they weren't pythagorean darlings just getting unlucky. They were legit an awful team.

 

I would also suggest as a hypothesis, which I'm open to being proven wrong, that teams that rely heavily on running the ball might do worse in one-score games because they aren't as effective at running two-minute drills.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way.

Does that mean you're not going to bet the under on 6.5 wins after saying this:

 

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

 

I don't generally make bets. I find precise predictions to be overrated. There's no point in trying to pinpoint exactly what happens in the future, because even if you're exactly right it's probably mostly luck. I find talking about ranges of probability to be more accurate, and therefore more interesting.

[Tim]

I would also suggest as a hypothesis, which I'm open to being proven wrong, that teams that rely heavily on running the ball might do worse in one-score games because they aren't as effective at running two-minute drills.

Theoretically, that gets balanced out by the running teams being better at killing clock to hold onto leads at the end of the game.

[Brian707]

Poles is setting up the championship window to be 2024 and 2025 but they should be around 8-9 wins this upcoming season if he wanted it. What does 8-9 wins really get you?

[Tim]

The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way.

Does that mean you're not going to bet the under on 6.5 wins after saying this:

 

You need either a HOF draft or a huge breakout from Fields as a passer in order to not be a 6-win team rn, imo. It's not a good roster.

 

I don't generally make bets. I find precise predictions to be overrated. There's no point in trying to pinpoint exactly what happens in the future, because even if you're exactly right it's probably mostly luck. I find talking about ranges of probability to be more accurate, and therefore more interesting.

I don't really want to bet either, I was primarily just highlighting the somewhat ridiculous stance you initially took.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does that mean you're not going to bet the under on 6.5 wins after saying this:

 

 

I don't generally make bets. I find precise predictions to be overrated. There's no point in trying to pinpoint exactly what happens in the future, because even if you're exactly right it's probably mostly luck. I find talking about ranges of probability to be more accurate, and therefore more interesting.

I don't really want to bet either, I was primarily just highlighting the somewhat ridiculous stance you initially took.

 

I disagree that it's ridiculous. I'd put os on the borderline between the average teams and the bad teams right now, but that includes the probability of a breakout season from Fields or a really great draft. If we get neither of those, we're probably a pretty bad team.