Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[UMFan83]

Poles said he basically had deals to go from 1>2>9 and have 3 1s for next year but he felt the sense of urgency from CAR to get it done now and HOU wanted to wait and he was worried the QBs might not show out as expected at their pro days and he felt the deal might have fallen apart between now and then, so he took the sure thing.

 

Can't be upset with what we got but damn.

 

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Yeah, sounds like Poles believes he could have gotten a 2024 FRP from Houston and potentially some additional picks this year. But I think the package from Carolina lessens a decent amount from 1 to 2. And I'm guessing that meant no DJ Moore or possibly no 2025 2nd round pick. The 49ers gave up 2 future 1sts and a future 3rd to move from 12 to 3. And they may have paid a premium with Miami assuming they'd be a playoff team in 2022 (which that picked turned out to be 28th, no chance Carolina's is that late).

 

So, even with a similar deal you're looking at:

 

9th pick, 2023 3rd from Carolina, 2024 1st from Houston, 2024 1st from Carolina, 2025 1st from Carolina

 

vs

 

9th pick, 2023 2nd from Carolina, 2024 1st from Carolina, 2025 2nd from Carolina, DJ Moore

 

Of course, the Houston deal could have included another 2023 pick as well. Obviously, that Houston pick next year looks very enticing, but I think it's a huge assumption they would have given up a future 1st. And if they would have, it wouldn't have been much more than that. So basically, it comes down to DJ Moore and 2025 1st for a 2024 1st and a 2025 2nd + the proverbial "bird in the hand". Houston could have changed their minds. Carolina could have changed there's or the package. It's obviously a fine deal, which I'm sure Bears fans will completely be rational about when reading the article.

 

I know what Poles said but I have a hard time Houston would really offer their 1st next year to move up a spot. But what do I know? I'm happy with what we got as others have said, and the ability to get it done before FA was helpful.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Poles said he basically had deals to go from 1>2>9 and have 3 1s for next year but he felt the sense of urgency from CAR to get it done now and HOU wanted to wait and he was worried the QBs might not show out as expected at their pro days and he felt the deal might have fallen apart between now and then, so he took the sure thing.

 

Can't be upset with what we got but damn.

 

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Yeah, sounds like Poles believes he could have gotten a 2024 FRP from Houston and potentially some additional picks this year. But I think the package from Carolina lessens a decent amount from 1 to 2. And I'm guessing that meant no DJ Moore or possibly no 2025 2nd round pick. The 49ers gave up 2 future 1sts and a future 3rd to move from 12 to 3. And they may have paid a premium with Miami assuming they'd be a playoff team in 2022 (which that picked turned out to be 28th, no chance Carolina's is that late).

 

So, even with a similar deal you're looking at:

 

9th pick, 2023 3rd from Carolina, 2024 1st from Houston, 2024 1st from Carolina, 2025 1st from Carolina

 

vs

 

9th pick, 2023 2nd from Carolina, 2024 1st from Carolina, 2025 2nd from Carolina, DJ Moore

 

Of course, the Houston deal could have included another 2023 pick as well. Obviously, that Houston pick next year looks very enticing, but I think it's a huge assumption they would have given up a future 1st. And if they would have, it wouldn't have been much more than that. So basically, it comes down to DJ Moore and 2025 1st for a 2024 1st and a 2025 2nd + the proverbial "bird in the hand". Houston could have changed their minds. Carolina could have changed there's or the package. It's obviously a fine deal, which I'm sure Bears fans will completely be rational about when reading the article.

 

I know what Poles said but I have a hard time Houston would really offer their 1st next year to move up a spot. But what do I know? I'm happy with what we got as others have said, and the ability to get it done before FA was helpful.

 

was that what he said? I didn't hear his interview, but reading the description was it something like Houston to 1, bears to 2 for this year's first and parts, then Carolina to 2, bears to 9 for 3 1sts? Instead, Poles said I want Moore, and Carolina said if that's the case we want #1?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Peter King on what Poles told him

 

POLES TOLD ME HE HAD SIGNIFICANT DISCUSSION WITH HOUSTON AT NUMBER TWO THAT COULD HAVE MADE HIM TRADE DOWN TWICE IN THE TOP 10—WITH BOTH THE TEXANS AND PANTHERS. HE WOULDN’T BE SPECIFIC ON WHAT BROKE DOWN, BUT HE DID SAY: “I THOUGHT THERE WAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO DO SOMETHING HISTORICALLY PRETTY COOL WITH A TRADE FROM ONE TO TWO AND TWO TO NINE. THAT HAD POTENTIAL TO ADD MORE DRAFT CAPITAL THIS YEAR, AND THEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT YOU’RE SITTING ON THREE ONES IN THE FOLLOWING YEAR. THAT HAD MY ATTENTION. BUT MY GUT TOLD ME TO TRIGGER ON IT NOW. AT THE COMBINE, I THOUGHT THOSE QUARTERBACKS DID AN OUTSTANDING JOB IN THEIR INTERVIEW PROCESS. A LOT OF TEAMS FELT REALLY GOOD ABOUT SOME OF THOSE GUYS, BUT AS YOU GET FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COMBINE, MAYBE THERE’S A BAD PRO DAY OR SOMETHING THAT TURNS TEAMS OFF.”

 

MY SENSE IS THAT POLES IS CLOSE TO CAROLINA GM SCOTT FITTERER FROM YEARS OF ROAD SCOUTING AND PERSONNEL CONVERSATIONS, AND HE COULD GET A READ ON EXACTLY WHAT CAROLINA WOULD DO AND WHAT IT WOULDN’T. HE DOESN’T KNOW HOUSTON GM NICK CASERIO AS WELL, SO IT COULD BE POLES WAS NEVER SURE HOW FAR THE TEXANS WOULD GO TO DO THE DEAL. IN A DRAFT WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT ALL THE TOP QUARTERBACKS AND NO ANDREW LUCK OR TREVOR LAWRENCE IN THE GROUP, ONCE CAROLINA AGREED TO SEND WIDEOUT D.J. MOORE AND TWO ONES AND TWO TWOS, POLES WAS CONVINCED HE SHOULDN’T WAIT.

 

“SCOTT AND I HAVE A PRETTY GOOD RELATIONSHIP, BEING AROUND EACH OTHER ON THE ROAD,” POLES SAID. “I THINK THAT PLAYED A BIG PART OF IT. AND TRUST. HE WANTED TO GET IT DONE. HE WAS CLEAR WITH HIS INTENTIONS.”

 

Taken from a Sports Mockery article but it's King's words. Not sure why the MF DOOM ALL CAPS horsefeathers though.

 

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[UMFan83]

Not sure if this is related to the King article or something completely different but here's another Poles interview talking about his strategy and how he communicated his plans to Justin Fields.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/ryan-poles-never-told-justin-fields-he-was-the-starting-qb?utm_source=reddit.com

 

This quote caught my attention:

 

“Obviously, adding uptick in 2023 was critical, but I also want premium picks, or what could be premium picks in ’24 and ’25, just to continue to add draft capital down the road. That was important, again, just to continue to make up for some of the trades that the organization did before, to try to find a quarterback and continue to add good players in this draft.”

 

Shots fired!

[We Got The Whole 9]

At least Pace saved the best for last... Hopefully?

 

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[UMFan83]

At least Pace saved the best for last... Hopefully?

 

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I was just thinking about how I have serious doubts that Poles would have made that trade-up for Fields if he was in charge and the situation was the same. I'll take how it played out.

[WrigleyField 22]

At least Pace saved the best for last... Hopefully?

 

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I was just thinking about how I have serious doubts that Poles would have made that trade-up for Fields if he was in charge and the situation was the same. I'll take how it played out.

Would have had an intentional two year tank and be drafting Stroud/Young this year for sure

[minnesotacubsfan]

Not sure if this is related to the King article or something completely different but here's another Poles interview talking about his strategy and how he communicated his plans to Justin Fields.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/ryan-poles-never-told-justin-fields-he-was-the-starting-qb?utm_source=reddit.com

 

This quote caught my attention:

 

“Obviously, adding uptick in 2023 was critical, but I also want premium picks, or what could be premium picks in ’24 and ’25, just to continue to add draft capital down the road. That was important, again, just to continue to make up for some of the trades that the organization did before, to try to find a quarterback and continue to add good players in this draft.”

 

Shots fired!

Interesting read, you get the idea that front office types really like the way Poles operates. Let's hope it translates to success

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I love Poles' approach to asset management and he's right that it's a noticeable change from the previous regime.

 

Pace's whole thing was "identify what we want, pay whatever it takes to get it, figure out the rest later." Honestly, even the Mack trade starts to look a little iffy when viewed through that lens (I said at the time that it wasn't necessarily bad but it was high-risk and we were paying a steep price).

 

It's easy to have a hard line on veterans when they weren't the ones you drafted, and to prioritize draft picks when you've got the "rebuild" excuse in your back pocket for when you go 3-14, but I like the idea of a team that has a strong vision of how to allocate their picks and cap space long-term to create the best possible roster.

 

None of it will end up mattering unless his team is good at actually making the picks and developing them, and I've got some concerns about positional valuations (defensive back-7 seems to be getting a ton of investment while both lines are afterthoughts), but I really really dig the approach.

[David]

I've got some concerns about positional valuations (defensive back-7 seems to be getting a ton of investment while both lines are afterthoughts)

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/pass-rush-vs-pass-coverage

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I've got some concerns about positional valuations (defensive back-7 seems to be getting a ton of investment while both lines are afterthoughts)

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/pass-rush-vs-pass-coverage

 

I'm ok with the "poles is actually a super football genius and everything is going to come together according to his plan" explanation turning out to be the right one

[Thurman Merman]

I think the answer is that it's better to have a mediocre line/good secondary vs a mediocre secondary/good line, but you still can't be bottom of the league in your line play even with an outstanding secondary and expect to have a good defense.

[We Got The Whole 9]

He's slow playing the lines and right now they are mediocre piecemeal but we still have the draft and cap casualties to come. I think it's prudent to wait until TC starts to really evaluate what we have.

 

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[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's slow playing the lines and right now they are mediocre piecemeal but we still have the draft and cap casualties to come. I think it's prudent to wait until TC starts to really evaluate what we have.

 

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I'd be more comfortable with this argument if I hadn't said it at this time last year, and then we went DB-DB-KR with our top picks and the cap casualties sucked (as they tend to do) and then Fields had his second year derailed by the worst sack rate in history.

[WrigleyField 22]

Post draft casualitis can sometimes unearth finds. Washington I know was really pleased with what they got from Charles Leno when Chicago cut him in 2021 after the draft, as one example. But it's definitely a mix of hope and luck that the fits at position of needs all work out.

 

Even the Reiff signing (wasn't a cut, but happened late) was like kind of okay. But kind of okay isn't good. Next few weeks will close out most of the few remaining options for good/promising. Then we'll head into "okay maybe it works" with lots of Braxton Jones day 3 draft bets sprinkled in, hoping one "hits" (relatively speaking) immediately.

 

I still have them at needing to spend about 36-40M in cash (I'm already factoring in draft and some in season room). So that's 36-40M between FAs and extensions (through Feb of next year, basically)

[Derwood]

Either way, unless something miraculous happens, the Bears are likely to have two top-10 picks next year

 

It's not going to take a miracle to finish out of the bottom 1/3 FFS

 

Experts (for whatever their opinions are worth) are predicting a 6-win season. That would be bottom 1/3

[jersey cubs fan]

Either way, unless something miraculous happens, the Bears are likely to have two top-10 picks next year

 

It's not going to take a miracle to finish out of the bottom 1/3 FFS

 

Experts (for whatever their opinions are worth) are predicting a 6-win season. That would be bottom 1/3

And it would not take a miracle to outperform expert predictions

[Derwood]

 

It's not going to take a miracle to finish out of the bottom 1/3 FFS

 

Experts (for whatever their opinions are worth) are predicting a 6-win season. That would be bottom 1/3

And it would not take a miracle to outperform expert predictions

 

Okay, bad choice of words.

[We Got The Whole 9]

He's slow playing the lines and right now they are mediocre piecemeal but we still have the draft and cap casualties to come. I think it's prudent to wait until TC starts to really evaluate what we have.

 

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I'd be more comfortable with this argument if I hadn't said it at this time last year, and then we went DB-DB-KR with our top picks and the cap casualties sucked (as they tend to do) and then Fields had his second year derailed by the worst sack rate in history.

 

Im still of the opinion that neither Gordon, Brisker, or Velus needed to be taken when they were and I would have traded those 2 2nd round picks for sure, so I'm with you on sharing that frustration and angst. But he's filled in the floor decently well this time around and set himself up to where I don't see any way he doesn't hammer the lines hard in the first few rounds. Eberflus obviously has a decent amount of influence and I think he played a major part in those first 2 selections. Poles acquiesced possibly not wanting to make waves in a partnership that was just forged. IDK.

 

FWIW, Fields is the reason for the worst sack rate in history. I think it's fair to state that. It would have been BAD but he made it historically bad, not the line, even accounting for the malpractice of making Mustipher the starting C. But Poles absolutely could have done more to improve that OL. However would we have the draft capital we have now... Likely hell no. So it is what it is and hopefully we will benefit from the negligence.

 

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[WrigleyField 22]

 

It's not going to take a miracle to finish out of the bottom 1/3 FFS

 

Experts (for whatever their opinions are worth) are predicting a 6-win season. That would be bottom 1/3

And it would not take a miracle to outperform expert predictions

My book them at +300 to win division. So about 25% chance. Seems fair. Maybe I should lay a five on that so I can't be accused of being negative when I complain about any particular Poles move/non-move

[David]

and what horsefeathering experts?

 

the draft hasn't even happened yet. who is even predicting regular season wins at this point?

 

or are you just talking about wrigley in this thread taking the pythag record from last year and adding the win that some model says the bears gained from their moves so far?

[WrigleyField 22]

and what horsefeathering experts?

 

the draft hasn't even happened yet. who is even predicting regular season wins at this point?

 

or are you just talking about wrigley in this thread taking the pythag record from last year and adding the win that some model says the bears gained from their moves so far?

Yes, thank you. I AM an expert.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm coming around. Apparently this was one of the top-10 most efficient (by EPA or whatever dumb stat is being pushed) QB performances in a loss last season:

 

 

Watch this and tell me that's a 6-win offense with a full season of Moore and Claypool.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm coming around. Apparently this was one of the top-10 most efficient (by EPA or whatever dumb stat is being pushed) QB performances in a loss last season:

 

 

Watch this and tell me that's a 6-win offense with a full season of Moore and Claypool.

Whats a 11 win offense with a 1 win DL?

[David]

people keep saying that fields and the offense faded down the stretch after his breakout, but what also coincided with that fade was losing darnell mooney (and claypool)