Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[David]

I'm coming around. Apparently this was one of the top-10 most efficient (by EPA or whatever dumb stat is being pushed) QB performances in a loss last season:

 

 

Watch this and tell me that's a 6-win offense with a full season of Moore and Claypool.

Whats a 11 win offense with a 1 win DL?

 

what about a 9-10 win secondary/lbs in the mix?

 

we're really experting now

[jersey cubs fan]

Back of the napkin math that’s a 21/22 win season

[WrigleyField 22]

Back of the napkin math that’s a 21/22 win season

Feels like I should double down on my $5 division bet and bet the house on it.

[CubinNY]

I'm coming around. Apparently this was one of the top-10 most efficient (by EPA or whatever dumb stat is being pushed) QB performances in a loss last season:

 

 

Watch this and tell me that's a 6-win offense with a full season of Moore and Claypool.

I sure wish I knew what was on that video

Edited March 21, 2023 by CubinNY

[David]

I'm coming around. Apparently this was one of the top-10 most efficient (by EPA or whatever dumb stat is being pushed) QB performances in a loss last season:

 

 

Watch this and tell me that's a 6-win offense with a full season of Moore and Claypool.

I sure wish I new what was on that video

 

you can't just click into it?

[minnesotacubsfan]

I'm coming around. Apparently this was one of the top-10 most efficient (by EPA or whatever dumb stat is being pushed) QB performances in a loss last season:

 

 

Watch this and tell me that's a 6-win offense with a full season of Moore and Claypool.

I sure wish I new what was on that video

 

you can't just click into it?

 

it didnt load correctly the first time I clicked on it either, went to some random youtube video. the second time I got the JF highlights from the Bears/Dolphins game

[CubinNY]

When I click on it it goes straight to youtube. No Fields anything.

[jumbo]

He's slow playing the lines and right now they are mediocre piecemeal but we still have the draft and cap casualties to come. I think it's prudent to wait until TC starts to really evaluate what we have.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

 

I'd be more comfortable with this argument if I hadn't said it at this time last year, and then we went DB-DB-KR with our top picks and the cap casualties sucked (as they tend to do) and then Fields had his second year derailed by the worst sack rate in history.

 

Im still of the opinion that neither Gordon, Brisker, or Velus needed to be taken when they were and I would have traded those 2 2nd round picks for sure, so I'm with you on sharing that frustration and angst. But he's filled in the floor decently well this time around and set himself up to where I don't see any way he doesn't hammer the lines hard in the first few rounds. Eberflus obviously has a decent amount of influence and I think he played a major part in those first 2 selections. Poles acquiesced possibly not wanting to make waves in a partnership that was just forged. IDK.

 

FWIW, Fields is the reason for the worst sack rate in history. I think it's fair to state that. It would have been BAD but he made it historically bad, not the line, even accounting for the malpractice of making Mustipher the starting C. But Poles absolutely could have done more to improve that OL. However would we have the draft capital we have now... Likely hell no. So it is what it is and hopefully we will benefit from the negligence.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

 

I think Poles and his scouts built a board and religiously stuck to it. Those picks were the top guys on their board when their turn came up. Poles seems so committed to a good process that I don't think he would veer off course with the first few picks in his career.

 

It should also be said that their board was edited based on what Flus/Getsy likes in various positions based on the intended scheme. Additionally, Poles selected very athletic players (the OL specifically were all high RAS guys) in the draft and that has continued into this free agnecy. His FA selections were all 28 or under, most were 27 and under, prioritizing young players.

 

Not sure what you mean about trading the 2nd rounders in the last draft? You mean trade back a few picks and still get the same guy along with a later round pick? At the time I remember thinking that he should trade back in the second if he could get another 3rd. Maybe trade back and get a fourth with the other. He ended up trading back three times and picking up a few picks, but all were late rounders. One of the fifth rounders was Braxton so that's a vote for the volume concept of drafting.

[raw]

I appreciate a GM sticking to his draft board, but you gotta draft for need at some point. Like you can't wait til Day 3 for OL and DL this year. You just can't ignore the positions for 2 free agency rounds and then not pick BPA at a position you clearly need. Everyone says BPA, but BPA is based on need or else you'd have teams with QBs picking QBs all the time, and not just because they are old or A-holes (see Packers x 2).

[We Got The Whole 9]

 

I'd be more comfortable with this argument if I hadn't said it at this time last year, and then we went DB-DB-KR with our top picks and the cap casualties sucked (as they tend to do) and then Fields had his second year derailed by the worst sack rate in history.

 

Im still of the opinion that neither Gordon, Brisker, or Velus needed to be taken when they were and I would have traded those 2 2nd round picks for sure, so I'm with you on sharing that frustration and angst. But he's filled in the floor decently well this time around and set himself up to where I don't see any way he doesn't hammer the lines hard in the first few rounds. Eberflus obviously has a decent amount of influence and I think he played a major part in those first 2 selections. Poles acquiesced possibly not wanting to make waves in a partnership that was just forged. IDK.

 

FWIW, Fields is the reason for the worst sack rate in history. I think it's fair to state that. It would have been BAD but he made it historically bad, not the line, even accounting for the malpractice of making Mustipher the starting C. But Poles absolutely could have done more to improve that OL. However would we have the draft capital we have now... Likely hell no. So it is what it is and hopefully we will benefit from the negligence.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

 

I think Poles and his scouts built a board and religiously stuck to it. Those picks were the top guys on their board when their turn came up. Poles seems so committed to a good process that I don't think he would veer off course with the first few picks in his career.

 

It should also be said that their board was edited based on what Flus/Getsy likes in various positions based on the intended scheme. Additionally, Poles selected very athletic players (the OL specifically were all high RAS guys) in the draft and that has continued into this free agnecy. His FA selections were all 28 or under, most were 27 and under, prioritizing young players.

 

Not sure what you mean about trading the 2nd rounders in the last draft? You mean trade back a few picks and still get the same guy along with a later round pick? At the time I remember thinking that he should trade back in the second if he could get another 3rd. Maybe trade back and get a fourth with the other. He ended up trading back three times and picking up a few picks, but all were late rounders. One of the fifth rounders was Braxton so that's a vote for the volume concept of drafting.

 

I can't predict who would have been available so I wasn't suggesting he could have traded those picks and still got Gordon and Brisker; rather that I would have traded back and taken BPA. I just felt that we could have stacked more capital and the roster was so bare that there was no need to prioritize any specific positions.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

[WrigleyField 22]

Wanted to do a thread exploring where talent and value was found in later waves of FA last year.

 

[CubinNY]

I appreciate a GM sticking to his draft board, but you gotta draft for need at some point. Like you can't wait til Day 3 for OL and DL this year. You just can't ignore the positions for 2 free agency rounds and then not pick BPA at a position you clearly need. Everyone says BPA, but BPA is based on need or else you'd have teams with QBs picking QBs all the time, and not just because they are old or A-holes (see Packers x 2).

Given their needs, it should surprise no one when he drafts an OL or DL. If he doesn't, he's too smart to be a GM in the NFL.

[jersey cubs fan]

Wanted to do a thread exploring where talent and value was found in later waves of FA last year.

 

You really gonna try and make me open Twitter to read this thread?

[WrigleyField 22]

Wanted to do a thread exploring where talent and value was found in later waves of FA last year.

 

You really gonna try and make me open Twitter to read this thread?

Gotta go and get your own Twitter account now

[WrigleyField 22]

Everyone seems very happy about JSNs pro day.

 

So eff it, treat WRs like you're gathering infinity stones. JSN at 9. Go get Marv next year with Panthers pick too. Don't stop

[JeffH]

Everyone seems very happy about JSNs pro day.

 

So eff it, treat WRs like you're gathering infinity stones. JSN at 9. Go get Marv next year with Panthers pick too. Don't stop

 

Houston had better move up to 9 from 12 to make sure to get him. Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz won't cut it for their new QB.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everyone seems very happy about JSNs pro day.

 

So eff it, treat WRs like you're gathering infinity stones. JSN at 9. Go get Marv next year with Panthers pick too. Don't stop

 

I would be completely ok with drafting a WR at 9.

[jumbo]

 

Im still of the opinion that neither Gordon, Brisker, or Velus needed to be taken when they were and I would have traded those 2 2nd round picks for sure, so I'm with you on sharing that frustration and angst. But he's filled in the floor decently well this time around and set himself up to where I don't see any way he doesn't hammer the lines hard in the first few rounds. Eberflus obviously has a decent amount of influence and I think he played a major part in those first 2 selections. Poles acquiesced possibly not wanting to make waves in a partnership that was just forged. IDK.

 

FWIW, Fields is the reason for the worst sack rate in history. I think it's fair to state that. It would have been BAD but he made it historically bad, not the line, even accounting for the malpractice of making Mustipher the starting C. But Poles absolutely could have done more to improve that OL. However would we have the draft capital we have now... Likely hell no. So it is what it is and hopefully we will benefit from the negligence.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

 

I think Poles and his scouts built a board and religiously stuck to it. Those picks were the top guys on their board when their turn came up. Poles seems so committed to a good process that I don't think he would veer off course with the first few picks in his career.

 

It should also be said that their board was edited based on what Flus/Getsy likes in various positions based on the intended scheme. Additionally, Poles selected very athletic players (the OL specifically were all high RAS guys) in the draft and that has continued into this free agnecy. His FA selections were all 28 or under, most were 27 and under, prioritizing young players.

 

Not sure what you mean about trading the 2nd rounders in the last draft? You mean trade back a few picks and still get the same guy along with a later round pick? At the time I remember thinking that he should trade back in the second if he could get another 3rd. Maybe trade back and get a fourth with the other. He ended up trading back three times and picking up a few picks, but all were late rounders. One of the fifth rounders was Braxton so that's a vote for the volume concept of drafting.

 

I can't predict who would have been available so I wasn't suggesting he could have traded those picks and still got Gordon and Brisker; rather that I would have traded back and taken BPA. I just felt that we could have stacked more capital and the roster was so bare that there was no need to prioritize any specific positions.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

 

I get it. I was glad to see the trade backs to pick up more picks, but I agree that we could have added some earlier round picks by trading back the twos. We'll see how much Poles continues to trade back. I think until they get a little closer to a full team without holes they shouldn't trade up a whole lot.

[jumbo]

I appreciate a GM sticking to his draft board, but you gotta draft for need at some point. Like you can't wait til Day 3 for OL and DL this year. You just can't ignore the positions for 2 free agency rounds and then not pick BPA at a position you clearly need. Everyone says BPA, but BPA is based on need or else you'd have teams with QBs picking QBs all the time, and not just because they are old or A-holes (see Packers x 2).

 

I totally agree on the BPA comments. I just think last draft Poles had the flexibility of holes all over the roster to not "remove" a position group from the board. I was hoping for a WR and OL with the two second rounders last year and was upset when they didn't sign any notable OL (I wanted the Saints T that went to Miami, blanking on his name).

At this point the first rounder basically has to be a T to avoid a massive hole on the roster.

[gflore34]

I would be completely ok with drafting a WR at 9.

 

I’ll keep popping in to say one *should* be the pick at 9 (Quinten Johnston!)

 

I'd venture to say Fields has probably lobbied for JSN at 9. I say go it, weapons, weapons, weapons, can never have enough, while Fields and a terrible OL contributed to his high sack rate. I'm guessing the lack of weapons also played a part most especially after Mooney and Claypool were out. Who'd give a second thought to defending a WR room headed by Saint-Brown, Pringle and Pettis?

[raw]

I would be completely ok with drafting a WR at 9.

 

I’ll keep popping in to say one *should* be the pick at 9 (Quinten Johnston!)

 

I'd venture to say Fields has probably lobbied for JSN at 9. I say go it, weapons, weapons, weapons, can never have enough, while Fields and a terrible OL contributed to his high sack rate. I'm guessing the lack of weapons also played a part most especially after Mooney and Claypool were out. Who'd give a second thought to defending a WR room headed by Saint-Brown, Pringle and Pettis?

 

I wouldn't HATE taking JSN at 9, though it wouldn't be my first choice (or 3rd). He isn't the 9th best talent in this draft, but he's probably close enough to top 15 that it wouldn't be a huge reach. That also seemingly will go for a lot of the players I project to be there at 9, so if the Bears feel a huge conviction to draft him, I'd understand.

 

That being said, that's an awful lot of resources spent on WR. That would mean spending a 1st, giving up the chance at a future 1st to get DJ Moore, the highest possible 2nd, and maybe even an extension for Mooney (not to mention Moore's contract). If they trade Claypool and get a decent return for him, I'd be all for JSN. He is a true slot guy, which they don't have on the roster right now.

 

But the way to go if they go weapons, weapons, weapons is to draft Bijan Robinson who is certainly a top 5 talent in the draft, just plays the most replaceable position on the field. And even then, I'd want to get something for Herbert if that's the case.

[WrigleyField 22]

Moore not a outside guy? What did you just look at his height?

[raw]

I wouldn't HATE taking JSN at 9, though it wouldn't be my first choice (or 3rd). He isn't the 9th best talent in this draft, but he's probably close enough to top 15 that it wouldn't be a huge reach. That also seemingly will go for a lot of the players I project to be there at 9, so if the Bears feel a huge conviction to draft him, I'd understand.

 

That being said, that's an awful lot of resources spent on WR. That would mean spending a 1st, giving up the chance at a future 1st to get DJ Moore, the highest possible 2nd, and maybe even an extension for Mooney (not to mention Moore's contract). If they trade Claypool and get a decent return for him, I'd be all for JSN. He is a true slot guy, which they don't have on the roster right now.

 

But the way to go if they go weapons, weapons, weapons is to draft Bijan Robinson who is certainly a top 5 talent in the draft, just plays the most replaceable position on the field. And even then, I'd want to get something for Herbert if that's the case.

 

- I miss all of the appeal of Smith-Njigba at 9, don’t see why he would be the guy

 

- The Eagles used firsts on Reagor and Smith (pick 10) back to back, and then traded for AJ Brown with picks 18 and 101 in 2022. The Bengals famously have Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Many (bad) teams would be happy to call the second best WRs on those teams as the top guy on the depth chart. As far as first division starting NFL WRs go, the Bears have Moore. Mooney’s not an outside guy as far as I can tell but seems alright. Just checked and he finished 2022 hurt. Claypool’s not good and, if there’s still something in the tank then all the merrier

 

- All that said - I might be with anyone saying Robinson as high as 9 to the Bears makes sense. He and Fields would make a badass combo that’s pretty futuristic and Moore’s one of the better deep threats in the league. I’m on the wagon with him being a high priority guy for the Bears

 

The Eagles traded for AJ Brown in part because Reagor was a bust of a pick. I guess you could argue the same with the Bears and the Claypool trade, but they also immediately got rid of Reagor, which is basically what I said they'd have to do with Claypool to make the pick even make sense at 9.

 

The Bengals do have a lot invested in WR, but there was 4 years between the Boyd and Higgins draft picks. Chase was a true generational talent that was a sure top 5 talent in his draft, which JSN is not.

 

But yeah, at this point, you might as well see if Claypool will put in the work this offseason w/ Fields, Moore and Mooney and become what the Bears thought they were trading for and the Steelers thought they were drafting. He's also a good source for a favorable comp pick formula as if he has a good year, he'll sign elsewhere for pretty decent money. They also have Velus too, FWIW. So they can "make due" with what should be a good WR group anyway this year and then go WR early next year, if needed. And they certainly will have the resources to add a WR early, where there is a ton of talent coming out every year.

[WrigleyField 22]

Personally my Plan A for the Bears would be to walk out of this draft with all 3 of Johnston (top WR), Robinson (top RB), and Kinkaid the TE

Are you horsefeathering high?

[WrigleyField 22]

Are you horsefeathering high?

 

Usually of course yes, but totally besides the point

 

What am I missing by adding those 3 guys to an offense that’s basically Fields, Moore, and back of the depth chart talent?

How they would get close to pulling that off.