Edward Cabrera's Disastrous Return to Cubs At Least Came With A Silver Lining

I don’t know about you, but I woke up on Friday with a new sense of vigor around the Chicago Cubs. I am not really a believer in momentum when it comes to sports. At the same time, Thursday was a massive come-from-behind win for the struggling club. Edward Cabrera was set to return on Friday to fortify a starting rotation badly in need of reinforcements. Plus, the Giants, one of the worst teams in baseball, were coming in to play three games at Wrigley Field. This was the perfect storm to right the ship. 

It didn’t take long for that vigor to disappear. A rain delay, coupled with the Giants immediately taking a 2-0 lead, put a small dent in my psyche. Then, a Matt Chapman grand slam in the fourth inning completely obliterated my excitement, and suddenly, I found myself watching college baseball instead. 

Cabrera, who was returning from a stint on the injured list with a blister, ended up with his worst line as a Cub: 3.2 innings pitched and eight earned runs given up on eight hits and three home runs. 

I am not going to sit here and tell you that Cabrera was actually good in this game. What I will do is give you a “the glass is one percent full” spin on the matter. The right hander’s strikeout rate on the day was 30 percent, and that is his single highest strikeout rate in any game this season. 

Where did those extra strikeouts come from? Well, for one, his velocity was up considerably from where it has been all season. All stats via FanGraphs:

That is a full one or two ticks on every pitch that Cabrera throws. His Stuff+ ratings, which measure the physical characteristics of a pitch, increased accordingly. For this start, his Stuff+ rating of 99 was bested only by his April 28 start earlier this season. 

This is what makes Cabrera so tantalizing. When he is on, he is getting Matt Chapman to swing through a beautifully executed slider:

And following that up with a changeup that breaks the opposite direction from the slider:

So, what was Cabrera’s issue on Friday? According to FanGraphs, he threw first pitch strikes on just 35 percent of his plate appearances. That’s his lowest rate this season by over 10 percentage points. 

Prior to Friday’s start, hitters were slugging .493 on pitches from Cabrera in the strike zone, per Baseball Savant. Over 14 percent of those balls in play were barreled, i.e. balls that were hit with an ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle. 

On Friday? Hitters slugged 1.286 on pitches in the zone and 27.3 percent of those balls in play were barreled. Cabrera simply was falling behind way too many hitters, and when he came into the zone, they were ready for it. 

If we’re looking for a bright side, and we all know that we desperately need it, I’d say that it’s clear Cabrera is healthy. The increased velocity says to me that he is feeling no ill effects from his blister. 

Still, he was acquired to be better than this. Whether it’s because he was falling behind hitters or not, he has to get better results when he pitches in the strike zone. The stuff is there. The results, like everything else for the Cubs right now, really lagged behind on Friday.