Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

For what little it's worth in football with the sample sizes involved, they played more like a 5 win team than a 3 win team last year based on pythag. The eye test would seem to agree with some of the games they blew or had a chance to win late.

 

They are already going to be markedly improved in some areas - and weaker in none of significance - as compared to last year and the draft should bolster the roster some more too. I have no idea where it's going to end up at this point and obviously the next couple of months will determine a lot.

 

Oh, also, the Packers are going to be very bad and the Vikings are not actually good so who knows.

 

It's hard to make a fair comparison because they gutted the roster halfway through, but if you take the average strength, the D-line will be noticeably worse.

 

gutted (the DL) halfway through how? by trading robert quinn?

 

it was horrid all year.

 

It's even worse now on paper. Quinn would be our best by a *wide* margin.

[David]

 

It's hard to make a fair comparison because they gutted the roster halfway through, but if you take the average strength, the D-line will be noticeably worse.

 

gutted (the DL) halfway through how? by trading robert quinn?

 

it was horrid all year.

 

It's even worse now on paper. Quinn would be our best by a *wide* margin.

 

how so?

 

and quinn was really horsefeathering bad when he did play last year.

[Outshined_One]

It's also worth pointing out that, even if Fields doesn't improve in 2023-24, the Bears' competitive window can very easily remain open in 24-25 and past that season because they will be in prime position to trade up for a QB in the 2024 draft thanks to Carolina's 1st rounder.

 

Granted, I don't want them throwing in the towel for this upcoming season and want them to shore up the lines now, but that Carolina trade means this team should not even have to think about rebuilding for the next 4-5 years.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I would also suggest as a hypothesis, which I'm open to being proven wrong, that teams that rely heavily on running the ball might do worse in one-score games because they aren't as effective at running two-minute drills.

Theoretically, that gets balanced out by the running teams being better at killing clock to hold onto leads at the end of the game.

 

I dont really buy that. For it to be true, one would have to assume that the run-heavy team either has the ball at the end of the game and is slowly picking up 1st downs or has a commanding lead of which the other team makes a comeback, but falls short due to clock management. But how often does a run-heavy team build large leads? I don't really know, but my anecdotal view is not often, and the bigger element of the overall outcome is the run-heavy teams' defensive play. IE; how well can they stop the high-flying offense?

 

I think it is better to have a strong D and a strong, dynamic passing offense.

[David]

 

Like this list. I'd add Clowney too. Za'darius Smith also (if he ends up being available).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

gutted (the DL) halfway through how? by trading robert quinn?

 

it was horrid all year.

 

It's even worse now on paper. Quinn would be our best by a *wide* margin.

 

how so?

 

and quinn was really horsefeathering bad when he did play last year.

 

 

And he was really good the year before. A has been looking for a bounce back is still ahead of our collection of never-was's

That's how bad we are

[David]

 

It's even worse now on paper. Quinn would be our best by a *wide* margin.

 

how so?

 

and quinn was really horsefeathering bad when he did play last year.

 

 

And he was really good the year before. A has been looking for a bounce back is still ahead of our collection of never-was's

That's how bad we are

 

We're talking about last year's team, how it performed, and how this year's roster is shaping up by comparison. The year before is 100% irrelevant.

 

It's ok to just admit you were talking out of your ass on that one.

[Bertz]

I'm very happy to take the over on 6.5 wins if someone wants to do a charity bet like David and Jersey did last year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

how so?

 

and quinn was really horsefeathering bad when he did play last year.

 

 

And he was really good the year before. A has been looking for a bounce back is still ahead of our collection of never-was's

That's how bad we are

 

We're talking about last year's team, how it performed, and how this year's roster is shaping up by comparison. The year before is 100% irrelevant.

 

It's ok to just admit you were talking out of your ass on that one.

 

So you want me to talk about whether the 2023 bears d line might compare to the 2022 bears d line, but we can't talk about projections? That unfairly benefits the 2023 side, which hasn't had a chance to face any potential underperformance or injury.

 

Between this and tim's "I didn't really mean I wanted to make a bet when I said I wanted to make a bet,' the neurotypicals are confusing today.

[David]

 

 

And he was really good the year before. A has been looking for a bounce back is still ahead of our collection of never-was's

That's how bad we are

 

We're talking about last year's team, how it performed, and how this year's roster is shaping up by comparison. The year before is 100% irrelevant.

 

It's ok to just admit you were talking out of your ass on that one.

 

So you want me to talk about whether the 2023 bears d line might compare to the 2022 bears d line, but we can't talk about projections? That unfairly benefits the 2023 side, which hasn't had a chance to face any potential underperformance or injury.

 

Between this and tim's "I didn't really mean I wanted to make a bet when I said I wanted to make a bet,' the neurotypicals are confusing today.

 

jesus christ

[jersey cubs fan]

It makes sense to the rest of us

[WrigleyField 22]

I think the "as currently constructed" requires the huge disclaimer that a lot of other teams are still partially constructed too.

 

Right now the biggest issue is going to be the DL. That's a DL that can lose them a lot of games.

 

But as David noted the 3 win team was somewhat unlucky as is. If they end up a baseline 8 win team a 6-10 actual range is all reasonably in play because there's just so much variance on a average team over a 17 game schedule. I don't think 8 win baseline would be enough based on the resources they had. They're gonna have A LOT of resources again next year. They were always gonna have strong assets, but it's gonna be a "no excuses" amount.

 

Sure, they were a little unlucky. You have to be a both bad *and* unlucky to go 3-14, very few teams are a "true" 3-win talent or whatever.

 

But the D-line is horrible ,there's still some question marks in the back 7 too (Gordon and Sanborn, looking at you). The offensive line looks an awful lot like the historically bad offensive line we just ran out.

 

And we still don't really know what we have in Fields. He's an unpredictable combinations of strengths (Hester-like open-field running from a QB, good deep ball, great leadership/work ethic) and weaknesses (slow processor, wonky mechanics that lead to inaccuracy on short and intermediate throws, a tendency to take sacks by dragging out plays looking for home runs).

 

I can see some upside for this roster, but I can definitely see the downside too.

 

The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way.

The OLine is similar-worse-maybe better if Jones takes a big step.

 

But the weapons around Fields are improved enough that I feel that makes a big imorovement. Lots of research around the fact that weapons at WR make a bigger difference than the OL. Fields may be sacked 50 time again, but I feel pretty good about the O and you can point to at least two cases of scrub WR basically costing the Bears a chance at a couple of those close losses.

 

But with the current DL, even with some minimal improvement I think they'll have a lot of shootout games.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think the "as currently constructed" requires the huge disclaimer that a lot of other teams are still partially constructed too.

 

Right now the biggest issue is going to be the DL. That's a DL that can lose them a lot of games.

 

But as David noted the 3 win team was somewhat unlucky as is. If they end up a baseline 8 win team a 6-10 actual range is all reasonably in play because there's just so much variance on a average team over a 17 game schedule. I don't think 8 win baseline would be enough based on the resources they had. They're gonna have A LOT of resources again next year. They were always gonna have strong assets, but it's gonna be a "no excuses" amount.

 

Sure, they were a little unlucky. You have to be a both bad *and* unlucky to go 3-14, very few teams are a "true" 3-win talent or whatever.

 

But the D-line is horrible ,there's still some question marks in the back 7 too (Gordon and Sanborn, looking at you). The offensive line looks an awful lot like the historically bad offensive line we just ran out.

 

And we still don't really know what we have in Fields. He's an unpredictable combinations of strengths (Hester-like open-field running from a QB, good deep ball, great leadership/work ethic) and weaknesses (slow processor, wonky mechanics that lead to inaccuracy on short and intermediate throws, a tendency to take sacks by dragging out plays looking for home runs).

 

I can see some upside for this roster, but I can definitely see the downside too.

 

The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way.

The OLine is similar-worse-maybe better if Jones takes a big step.

 

But the weapons around Fields are improved enough that I feel that makes a big imorovement. Lots of research around the fact that weapons at WR make a bigger difference than the OL. Fields may be sacked 50 time again, but I feel pretty good about the O and you can point to at least two cases of scrub WR basically costing the Bears a chance at a couple of those close losses.

 

But with the current DL, even with some minimal improvement I think they'll have a lot of shootout games.

 

 

Yeah. I can definitely see the upside. But those shootouts have to be driven by the passing game with fields plus his new WRs. I don't think you can do 17 games of fields pulling the ball down and taking off every time he sees man coverage without him getting hurt or defenses adjusting and stopping it more

[WrigleyField 22]

He didn't pull down everytime he saw man coverage Kyle.

 

He did lack guys who could get open, especially against man. For most of the year he usually had one good WR (Claypool and Mooney only crossed over a handful of games). Hopefully he has three now, baring health. Also has a decent TE2 who doesn't suffer from cement in his shoes.

 

Improving the RT and Jones taking a step would be huge though. Less that they have to run 2 route combos because they are max protecting, the better.

[bjam12]

Foreman just seems like a similar back to Herbert. I don't get the move. Good runner but doesn't catch passes or block.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He didn't pull down everytime he saw man coverage Kyle.

 

He did lack guys who could get open, especially against man. For most of the year he usually had one good WR (Claypool and Mooney only crossed over a handful of games). Hopefully he has three now, baring health. Also has a decent TE2 who doesn't suffer from cement in his shoes.

 

Improving the RT and Jones taking a step would be huge though. Less that they have to run 2 route combos because they are max protecting, the better.

 

If you're right that Fields' reluctance to pass into man coverage was entirely on the recievers, then we have very little to worry about this season.

[WrigleyField 22]

Foreman just seems like a similar back to Herbert. I don't get the move. Good runner but doesn't catch passes or block.

Should be a good short yardage back. Herbert isn't special there. And could carry the load if Herbert is hurt.

 

It's a very role specific RB room now. That comes with disadvantages, but the roles that are covered are all pretty strong I think. Has it's advantages and disadvantages for sure.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Where would you guys feel comfortable taking Adebawore? Raw but off the chart measurables. 280 lbs ran a 4.49 and huge explosion numbers.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

[WrigleyField 22]

Slight correction - Fields' accuracy on intermediate balls is fine (middle of pack). He just hasn't been throwing them.

I think per PFF tracking his intermediate is top 10. Just not as much volume. He was lowest on short/LOS, and mid pack on deep.

 

Their accuracy charting isn't just comp % though. So there is some subjectiveness about things like what is considered "catchable" v "on target" v "off target"

[WrigleyField 22]

Where would you guys feel comfortable taking Adebawore? Raw but off the chart measurables. 280 lbs ran a 4.49 and huge explosion numbers.

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

I don't know but sounds like he has serious mid round 1 type helium right now.

[jersey cubs fan]

I’ve turned to the hoge and jahns podcast to catch up on Chicago sports talk from time to time and it’s weird how much they are lamenting Jack Sanborn’s demotion due to new free agent signings. It’s almost like they are living vicariously through this guy and taking it personally.

[UMFan83]

[Outshined_One]

It’s almost like they are living vicariously through this guy and taking it personally.

 

I see it's been awhile since you've interacted with someone who considers the 1986 Super Bowl win to be the best day of their life.

[David]

 

this is a BS account sharing random made up crap for engagement

 

they might have a great analytics department but this guy sure as hell doesn't know

[WrigleyField 22]

I’ve turned to the hoge and jahns podcast to catch up on Chicago sports talk from time to time and it’s weird how much they are lamenting Jack Sanborn’s demotion due to new free agent signings. It’s almost like they are living vicariously through this guy and taking it personally.

Lamenting try hard local kid who went to (Wisconsin/Iowa/Northwestern) is the most Chicago Sports media thing ever.