Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[WrigleyField 22]

Hilarious that Bears Twitter is still beating the scheme thing to death this weekend. Mostly hanging on the words of Greg Gabriel who led a very sub-par record as director of college scouting from 2001-2010.

[WrigleyField 22]

Fwiw

 

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Hilarious that Bears Twitter is still beating the scheme thing to death this weekend. Mostly hanging on the words of Greg Gabriel who led a very sub-par record as director of college scouting from 2001-2010.

What’s this about? 

[WrigleyField 22]

4 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

What’s this about? 

Bears Twitter on like a week+ straight of arguing about how important scheme fits are or not. And Gabriel more or less being the face of the scheme-fit-only side.

[jersey cubs fan]

7 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Bears Twitter on like a week+ straight of arguing about how important scheme fits are or not. And Gabriel more or less being the face of the scheme-fit-only side.

In terms of why they may have passed on certain free agents, or as it relates to the draft? Or both? I think these guys are definitely a little too married to the scheme fit storyline. It reminds me of the bears giving away Greg Olson because their OC didn't bother with tight ends. It's not good roster management to only focus on guys who specifically do what you do. Coordinators come and go. Schemes change. Talent is what makes the difference. 

 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 minute ago, jersey cubs fan said:

In terms of why they may have passed on certain free agents, or as it relates to the draft? Or both? I think these guys are definitely a little too married to the scheme fit storyline. It reminds me of the bears giving away Greg Olson because their OC didn't bother with tight ends. It's not good roster management to only focus on guys who specifically do what you do. Coordinators come and go. Schemes change. Talent is what makes the difference. 

 

Started in FA. And a lot was about Orlando Brown.

But now it's turning into all encompassing thing.

Of course Olsen is the exception where Gabriel agrees they could have easily fit scheme to player. So by all accounts it's a near total subjective thing that they'll bend when they want, but treat others like dummy's for their opinions. 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/3/21/23649947/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-scouts-take-the-importance-of-scheme-fit-when-adding-defensive-linemen

Also had this blog he contributed to. Where his big example was dropping a few mid 30s DL when Lovie took over.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I thought the whole reason we hated Nagy was that he couldn't adjust his scheme to the players he had.

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I thought the whole reason we hated Nagy was that he couldn't adjust his scheme to the players he had.

Dub Club

[Hairyducked Idiot]

https://allchgo.com/2023/04/02/qa-with-offensive-line-expert-brandon-thorn-who-is-the-best-offensive-tackle-for-the-bears-in-the-2023-draft/

 

I have no idea if this guy is actually an expert or not but he doesn't think Braxton Jones' pass pro problems are definitely fixable so I believe in his credentials.

[UK]

With the 1st pick I'd go:

Carter

Wilson 

Johnson

Jones

Skoronski

Van Ness

N. Smith (who is rising on my list)

2-4th pick:

D. Jones

Schmitz

Ojulari

Adebawore

Avila

Uzomah

White

Mauch (as a G)

Foskey

Hall

Bergeron

Bunton

Ika

Dexter

Brents

Wypier

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2023 by UK
Added

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

https://allchgo.com/2023/04/02/qa-with-offensive-line-expert-brandon-thorn-who-is-the-best-offensive-tackle-for-the-bears-in-the-2023-draft/

 

I have no idea if this guy is actually an expert or not but he doesn't think Braxton Jones' pass pro problems are definitely fixable so I believe in his credentials.

I think a lot of the "basic" belief is he just needs to "get stronger", but guys get critiques like that all the time and never do. And this certainly indicates more than just strength. 

 

Then there's just the general, "of course progression is always positive and linear" stuff. 

[raw]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

https://allchgo.com/2023/04/02/qa-with-offensive-line-expert-brandon-thorn-who-is-the-best-offensive-tackle-for-the-bears-in-the-2023-draft/

 

I have no idea if this guy is actually an expert or not but he doesn't think Braxton Jones' pass pro problems are definitely fixable so I believe in his credentials.

Thorn is good. Never thought of him as an "expert" on the OL, especially compared to a couple other guys who I cant remember at this moment off the top of my head. But I tend to agree with his thoughts on OL prospects. I want to disagree with the assessment that Braxton can't get better pass blocking, but I can't completely discount his opinion. 

[raw]

2 hours ago, UK said:

With the 1st pick I'd go:

Carter

Wilson 

Johnson

Jones

Skoronski

Van Ness

N. Smith (who is rising on my list)

2-4th pick:

D. Jones

Schmitz

Ojulari

Adebawore

Avila

Uzomah

White

Mauch (as a G)

Foskey

Hall

Bergeron

Bunton

Ika

Dexter

Brents

Wypier

Good list. I think right now, I'm at....

9- Carter, Paris Johnson, Gonzalez

Trade Down (12-17)- Van Ness, Nolan Smith, Anton Harrison, Darnell Wright, Witherspoon, Smith-Njigba, Wilson

Not big on Skoronski (Guard), Jones (OT4 to me).

Picks 2-4, I'd love to make 1 bold move in these picks, especially if they trade down and get an extra pick. I'd love to package picks to move up or take an outside the box position (like RB or WR, if not in 1st), even if they stay where they are, they could still do something fun, IMO. But they do need to take DL and CB probably in these picks.

Of the names you list in this group, I don't like Ika (too big), Dexter (not a top 75 guy to me), White (not a fan of tweeners) or Bergeron (think he's a guard). But any 2 or 3 of those other guys and one of the 1st round guys would be a sweet couple days of the draft.

[UMFan83]

Kap is reporting that Bears/Chiefs is going to be in Germany next year. Pretty sweet 

[jumbo]

8 hours ago, raw said:

Good list. I think right now, I'm at....

9- Carter, Paris Johnson, Gonzalez

Trade Down (12-17)- Van Ness, Nolan Smith, Anton Harrison, Darnell Wright, Witherspoon, Smith-Njigba, Wilson

Not big on Skoronski (Guard), Jones (OT4 to me).

Picks 2-4, I'd love to make 1 bold move in these picks, especially if they trade down and get an extra pick. I'd love to package picks to move up or take an outside the box position (like RB or WR, if not in 1st), even if they stay where they are, they could still do something fun, IMO. But they do need to take DL and CB probably in these picks.

Of the names you list in this group, I don't like Ika (too big), Dexter (not a top 75 guy to me), White (not a fan of tweeners) or Bergeron (think he's a guard). But any 2 or 3 of those other guys and one of the 1st round guys would be a sweet couple days of the draft.

Say Carter drops to 9 and is the pick. What do we think it takes to get to pick 27-28 and pick a T? Would the two seconds get it done?

[UK]

4 hours ago, jumbo said:

Say Carter drops to 9 and is the pick. What do we think it takes to get to pick 27-28 and pick a T? Would the two seconds get it done?

The picks 53 & 61 equal the value of the 31st pick.

[UK]

13 hours ago, raw said:

Good list. I think right now, I'm at....

9- Carter, Paris Johnson, Gonzalez

Trade Down (12-17)- Van Ness, Nolan Smith, Anton Harrison, Darnell Wright, Witherspoon, Smith-Njigba, Wilson

Not big on Skoronski (Guard), Jones (OT4 to me).

Picks 2-4, I'd love to make 1 bold move in these picks, especially if they trade down and get an extra pick. I'd love to package picks to move up or take an outside the box position (like RB or WR, if not in 1st), even if they stay where they are, they could still do something fun, IMO. But they do need to take DL and CB probably in these picks.

Of the names you list in this group, I don't like Ika (too big), Dexter (not a top 75 guy to me), White (not a fan of tweeners) or Bergeron (think he's a guard). But any 2 or 3 of those other guys and one of the 1st round guys would be a sweet couple days of the draft.

To me, it becomes a question of need over value in regards to the lesser players on the list.

 

[Brian707]

13 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Kap is reporting that Bears/Chiefs is going to be in Germany next year. Pretty sweet 

Yeah the Score mentioned something about that a few weeks ago. Looks like this would have been in KC so the Bears won't lose a home game at least.

[JeffH]

1 hour ago, UK said:

The picks 53 & 61 equal the value of the 31st pick.

Using which chart?

[UK]

Rich Hill. I believe they Jimmy Johnson might be more favorable.

[WrigleyField 22]

53+61 value 

 

JJ chart = 28

RH chart = 31

FS (Over the Cap) = 9 (yes it's a big outlier) 

Edited April 4, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[jumbo]

Just posting this cuz I keep thinking about how the draft will go...

A few scenarios

In general, assuming the player grades and availability are equal, in my view the picks would ideally land like this from a needs/positional value point of view:

9 - T (day 1 starter type)

53, 61, 64 - DT (3 technique ideally), DE, CB (boundary corner, Gordon to nickel)

103 - C (given the positional need spectrum this could be a starter this year or next)

133, 136, 148 - BPA with and eye towards depth at OL, DL, TE (very deep class), RB (very deep class), WR

218, 258 - BPA/flyers, maybe get your RB here

 

I don't know all the players well enough to know which is a scheme fit/etc., so this is as close as I'd get to a mock draft projection. A couple other scenarios are Carter dropping, in which I'd take him at 9, then package the two seconds to get to the end of round 1 to pick a T (I think there are 4 or 5 who will go in that range). 

Another scenario is Carter does not drop and the Bears can snag a medium trade back, Washington's 16 and 47 for example, something along these lines. I would still go with T in Rd 1, but you can take a luxury pick with that extra pick or just stay focused on needs. 

Anyway, nothing new here, just waiting it out until draft time comes. 

[BigbadB]

1 hour ago, jumbo said:

Just posting this cuz I keep thinking about how the draft will go...

A few scenarios

In general, assuming the player grades and availability are equal, in my view the picks would ideally land like this from a needs/positional value point of view:

9 - T (day 1 starter type)

53, 61, 64 - DT (3 technique ideally), DE, CB (boundary corner, Gordon to nickel)

103 - C (given the positional need spectrum this could be a starter this year or next)

133, 136, 148 - BPA with and eye towards depth at OL, DL, TE (very deep class), RB (very deep class), WR

218, 258 - BPA/flyers, maybe get your RB here

 

I don't know all the players well enough to know which is a scheme fit/etc., so this is as close as I'd get to a mock draft projection. A couple other scenarios are Carter dropping, in which I'd take him at 9, then package the two seconds to get to the end of round 1 to pick a T (I think there are 4 or 5 who will go in that range). 

Another scenario is Carter does not drop and the Bears can snag a medium trade back, Washington's 16 and 47 for example, something along these lines. I would still go with T in Rd 1, but you can take a luxury pick with that extra pick or just stay focused on needs. 

Anyway, nothing new here, just waiting it out until draft time comes. 

Seems like they are hot for one of Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson. If neither make it to #9, I'd expect they consider trading back to get a higher second round pick. For some reason, I think Poles has a T that he likes that he can pick in the 53-64 pick range, so I don't think ruling out JSN with the first pick, now in the teens from the trade back, is completely out of the question. With that early 2nd round pick, they can still follow your draft pattern since several needs are supposedly deep in this draft.

[raw]

Yeah, I think if they are actually OK with Carter's off-field stuff (and I am more worried about the love of football stuff with the pro day failure) then I think he's the target. It just makes too much sense. He's considered the best player in this class by a lot of people and if the Bears can move down from 1 to 9 and still get the best player in the class, seems like the ideal scenario. Also other than off ball LB and WR, DT is the only other area where we've seen the Bears wanting to make a big splash (Ogunjobi failed deal). 

I'm not sure how they feel about Wilson (not sure how I feel either), but he seems like a Flus pick. Obviously has the size, length, fits a need and has versatility. But that injury. It's tough to take a guy top 10 coming off a broken foot. Hopefully, he is able to work out in the next few weeks and remove any doubt of his health and athleticism.

But I keep coming back to Paris Johnson. Not because he's this flawless prospect, but they aren't going to get any better character guy in this draft. He does tireless community work, speaks different languages, was a great student. If the Bears are unsure about Carter, they can't get a more polar opposite personality than Johnson. Ironically, him being a tackle is what gives me hesitation. LOL. Poles hasn't really done anything based on what the Bears really need, other than be aggressive acquiring WRs after putting himself in a hole there beforehand. 

I do think the 9th pick comes down to:

1. Are we OK with Carter's character? 

2. Is Paris Johnson a blue chip player?

3. Trade down

I don't know if I really see anyone else picked at 9, unless they can't find a trade (seems unlikely) and both are gone. 

[CubinNY]

23 minutes ago, raw said:

Yeah, I think if they are actually OK with Carter's off-field stuff (and I am more worried about the love of football stuff with the pro day failure) then I think he's the target. It just makes too much sense. He's considered the best player in this class by a lot of people and if the Bears can move down from 1 to 9 and still get the best player in the class, seems like the ideal scenario. Also other than off ball LB and WR, DT is the only other area where we've seen the Bears wanting to make a big splash (Ogunjobi failed deal). 

I'm not sure how they feel about Wilson (not sure how I feel either), but he seems like a Flus pick. Obviously has the size, length, fits a need and has versatility. But that injury. It's tough to take a guy top 10 coming off a broken foot. Hopefully, he is able to work out in the next few weeks and remove any doubt of his health and athleticism.

But I keep coming back to Paris Johnson. Not because he's this flawless prospect, but they aren't going to get any better character guy in this draft. He does tireless community work, speaks different languages, was a great student. If the Bears are unsure about Carter, they can't get a more polar opposite personality than Johnson. Ironically, him being a tackle is what gives me hesitation. LOL. Poles hasn't really done anything based on what the Bears really need, other than be aggressive acquiring WRs after putting himself in a hole there beforehand. 

I do think the 9th pick comes down to:

1. Are we OK with Carter's character? 

2. Is Paris Johnson a blue chip player?

3. Trade down

I don't know if I really see anyone else picked at 9, unless they can't find a trade (seems unlikely) and both are gone. 

If I were in Poles's shoes, there is no way in hell I'd even consider a second drafting Carter. Carter has bust flashing in a big red neon sign over his head. If some team wants to offer a trade back with added value and I thought I could get an extra person on my list. I'd easily say yes.