Comparing Cubs' Improved Rotation Against Other National League Contenders

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I don't think it's hard to argue that the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation has been one of the more fascinating groups to follow around the league during the 2026 calendar year. After acquiring Edward Cabrera back in January, it looked like the North Siders would enter the season with, hopefully, four quality starting pitchers: Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cabrera, and a promising young arm in Cade Horton. But as we all know, things move fast in professional sports... and they didn’t necessarily move in the Cubs’ favor.

Horton made just two starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and after Ben Brown flashed as a starter following a move to the rotation in May, he was placed on the IL just a month later and has yet to return. Not to mention, Cabrera, who missed about two months earlier in the year, is now back on the IL with a blister issue; likewise, Boyd missed nearly two months himself. It’s been a rocky road for the pitching staff, but rather than fold, the front office became aggressive.

Chicago added a trio of starting pitchers at the trade deadline in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and Braxton Garrett, who’s currently with the Iowa Cubs. With the team’s eyes set on October baseball, addressing the starting rotation was a huge point of emphasis, and there’s no question that unit is in a better place now. Boyd-Gausman-Imanaga-Holmes-Cabrera, when healthy, is a strong unit, and odds are good one of those names (presumably Cabrera) will get moved to a relief role come October. But how does the Cubs’ starting rotation stack up to other NL contenders?

This team currently holds the top Wild Card spot in the National League, with a record of 74-54 The three teams above them in the standings are the Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers, while everyone else is fighting beneath them for of the other two Wild Cards. And just to get it out of the way now: I’m not going to pretend that anyone has a better rotation than the Dodgers.

Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are two of the top pitchers in the entire league, and there’s an absurd amount of depth behind them. When healthy, this is a team with six or seven names that could start in the postseason. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Justin Wrobleski, and Kris Bubic are all names that I’d feel good about taking the mound in October, and no other team has that combination of top-end talent and depth within their starting rotation. Injuries could sink them, but notice how I didn't even need to mention Shohei Ohtani's name in this paragraph to get my point across; these guys are just absurdly good on paper.

The Braves and Brewers, however, are much more comparable. Obviously, both teams have legitimate aces in Jacob Misiorowski and Chris Sale. Behind them, though, things are a little thinner.

Starting with the Braves: Martín Pérez has been great. However, his 4.29 expected ERA and poor underlying metrics would indicate his performance has been helped by some good luck. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder have both been solid middle-to-back-end rotation options, but both have little, or no, postseason experience, and both have poor underlying metrics. Those tend to catch up to you in October against the best teams in the league.

Spencer Strider is likely to be back soon, and Tyler Mahle has made a couple nice starts since Atlanta acquired him at the deadline. But this version of Strider is not nearly the same as he was a few years ago, and on the year, Mahle is sporting a 4.64 ERA. It’s a comparable unit to Chicago’s, and Sale is the ace the Cubs don’t have. But you have to prefer the Cubs' depth over Atlanta’s, and if I had to choose a rotation to run with for the postseason, I would take Chicago’s.

The Brewers are a little scarier. Jacob Misiorowski is the heavy favorite to take home the National League Cy Young Award, and if there’s any team that’s gonna get the most out of their rotation, it’s Milwaukee. They’ve added a trio of starters via trade over the last six-ish months. They acquired left-handers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan from Boston back in February, as well as Dustin May from St. Louis at the deadline.

Harrison has been a quality No. 2 starter for the Brewers this year, and has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league at 29.7%. Drohan and May have both pitched like serviceable middle-to-back-end rotation options, and the underlying metrics like them both even more than the surface-level numbers. And all of this is without mentioning Logan Henderson; he’s sporting a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 innings, and he’s striking out north of six batters for every walk he allows. His expected ERA, as well as both of his strikeout and walk rates, rank in the 94th percentile or higher among MLB pitchers. The Brewers have allowed the fewest runs of any National League team, and I hate to say it about a division rival, but the Cubs’ rotation simply doesn’t stack up.

As far as the two other teams that are currently in the NL Wild Card, the Phillies and Padres, let's put it like this: The Phillies scare me, the Padres don’t. Philadelphia’s top three of Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo can shut down any given lineup on any given night. They also have Aaron Nola in there as well. That’s a starting rotation that could make the Phillies a legitimate contender, even if they finish as a Wild Card team.

As for the Padres, Michael King is a quality starter, but there are a lot of question marks behind him. They added a pair of starters at the deadline in Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, but both have been up and down since arriving in San Diego. Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler are decent back-end starters, but neither poses as a huge postseason weapon. So I’d comfortably take the Cubs’ rotation in this hypothetical matchup.

Pitching wins games in October, and the Cubs have positioned themselves to go into the postseason with an improved starting rotation. But compared to teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies, I’m just not sure they’re there yet. That's going to put a huge onus on the offense to bridge the gap, which they've proven capable of doing to this point.