Random Offseason Musings and Rumors

[craig]

Good post, Dave. Agree, it's a pivotal question whether Eloy stays, and potentially becomes a middle-order monster; or becomes the #1 in a trade for a significant pitcher; or ends up less.

 

Another pivotal is whether one of our pitchers emerges and becomes effective.... for us. (Rather than as a trade chip.)

 

We don't know how quickly we'll need outside pitchers. Your post, as have others, has some trade-chip focus. And we may well need to be making a major pitching acquisition, all of us are objective enough to realize we've been lucky with the pitching health.

 

But as an optimist, I conceivable that the existing rotation might stay healthy enough and effective enough through July so that no major Eloy-level mid-season trade is required. (I'm not saying it's probable or to be counted on, but I think it's more than a 20% possibility.)

 

So if no major rotation-trade is essential pre-deadline, next offseason might be a whole different assessment. And the priority on trading for outside help might not be that extreme. I'm optimist, I know, but it's not inconceivable that a non-severe solution to the Arrieta+Lackey FA scenario will emerge. Some possibilities:

1. Assumption: Sign one *good* FA. Perhaps Arrieta himself, perhaps somebody else. But I think there's a good chance the Cubs will have the $$, with Arrieta + Lackey + Montero coming off next year, to sign one rotation spot with FA. In face, I think that's not only "possible", I think it's more than likely.

2. That might then leave only one #5 rotation spot to fill. We saw in 2015 that a team with Haren/Wada/Wood/Richard/Beeler as 5th starter can win 97 games. They may not need or insist on acquiring a long-term, multi-year #5 from outside.

(3. Maybe they'll sign Ross and he'll be ready?)

 

A year from now, the collection of Zastryzny, Clifton, Hatch, de la Cruz, Cease, and two first-round draft picks might look like a good pool. Will 5-7 of those guys look ready for April 2017 rotation spot, no. (Maybe none will.)

 

But I'm hopeful that **if** 2016 develops well for those guys, that next year the Cubs won't feel they need a long-term external guy. Might be comfortable with a one-year type guy as a replaceable bridge, who doesn't need to be great or expensive.

 

So maybe we'll be keeping our prospect pitchers, and hoping to develop them so that we don't need to trade a big package for an external guy?

[Anomalied]

Our eventual(or current) trade bait is the following...

 

The Cubs have no true untouchables beyond a handful of guys on the ML roster. It really probably can be boiled down to just Bryant and Rizzo. Practically speaking there is no untouchable prospect, but they likely will hold Jimenez in [much] higher regard than the rest of his peers.

Agreed for the most part, but I think Russell is also close to untouchable status. I cannot envision any trade where they would let him go unless it was part of a package for Trout.

[davell]

Rubby signed a minor league deal and is staying in Arizona. Good chance his arm is falling off if he's settling for a minor league deal.

[davell]

Rajai to the A's for one year and 6 mill.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Rajai to the A's for one year and 6 mill.

 

Or as he's known in an alternate universe, he who must ne'er mentioned.

[Cubswin11]

Hopefully we are one of the 6...

 

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[ND5533]

I gotta think he (Ross) is must have for the Cubs. He doesn't even know want a long contract so even if we have to overpay for him what's that mean? An extra 2-3 mil, so what. I'm confused about what we're doing with starters this year. I have full faith in Jed/Theo but I'm just not sure what their stance is. Last year it was obvious they wanted to stockpile potential starters. Although we didn't need those guys due to remarkable health of our 5 starters it didn't exactly flop. Warren turned into a piece for the closer to push us over the top, Wood turned out to be pretty valuable and Cahill had some decent moments in the pen too. I think that strategy was the right decision even thought it wasn't necessary. Obviously we've built a pretty solid pen and we don't really have room on major league roster, making their task much much harder but I'm wondering what caused the shift in philosophy. Just thinking out loud I guess, don't mind me!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I gotta think he (Ross) is must have for the Cubs. He doesn't even know want a long contract so even if we have to overpay for him what's that mean? An extra 2-3 mil, so what. I'm confused about what we're doing with starters this year. I have full faith in Jed/Theo but I'm just not sure what their stance is. Last year it was obvious they wanted to stockpile potential starters. Although we didn't need those guys due to remarkable health of our 5 starters it didn't exactly flop. Warren turned into a piece for the closer to push us over the top, Wood turned out to be pretty valuable and Cahill had some decent moments in the pen too. I think that strategy was the right decision even thought it wasn't necessary. Obviously we've built a pretty solid pen and we don't really have room on major league roster, making their task much much harder but I'm wondering what caused the shift in philosophy. Just thinking out loud I guess, don't mind me!

 

Here's my attitude towards adding a 6th SP. They need to either be clearly better than Montgomery, or they need to have options/team control so there's some longer term hope that can be cultivated. Ross is neither, and I really don't have any interest in him.

 

As for what the FO is actually doing, well they clearly have some interest in Ross so maybe they're more optimistic than Ross than me or just want the body to sort out later. If they don't get Ross, I imagine they'll continue trying to get some level of controlled SP, be it a failed prospect or someone more in the Montgomery mold. They may also like Zastryzny as a 6th starter more than we think, and they also might believe that finding a 6th starter without options(like Ross) is easier near the end of ST as teams sort out their 25 man rosters.

[ND5533]

I gotta think he (Ross) is must have for the Cubs. He doesn't even know want a long contract so even if we have to overpay for him what's that mean? An extra 2-3 mil, so what. I'm confused about what we're doing with starters this year. I have full faith in Jed/Theo but I'm just not sure what their stance is. Last year it was obvious they wanted to stockpile potential starters. Although we didn't need those guys due to remarkable health of our 5 starters it didn't exactly flop. Warren turned into a piece for the closer to push us over the top, Wood turned out to be pretty valuable and Cahill had some decent moments in the pen too. I think that strategy was the right decision even thought it wasn't necessary. Obviously we've built a pretty solid pen and we don't really have room on major league roster, making their task much much harder but I'm wondering what caused the shift in philosophy. Just thinking out loud I guess, don't mind me!

 

Here's my attitude towards adding a 6th SP. They need to either be clearly better than Montgomery, or they need to have options/team control so there's some longer term hope that can be cultivated. Ross is neither, and I really don't have any interest in him.

 

As for what the FO is actually doing, well they clearly have some interest in Ross so maybe they're more optimistic than Ross than me or just want the body to sort out later. If they don't get Ross, I imagine they'll continue trying to get some level of controlled SP, be it a failed prospect or someone more in the Montgomery mold. They may also like Zastryzny as a 6th starter more than we think, and they also might believe that finding a 6th starter without options(like Ross) is easier near the end of ST as teams sort out their 25 man rosters.

 

I hear ya and that all may be completely accurate, I don't know. Like I said I trust the FO just wondering. I do think Ross is perfect for the Cubs. I get the control part but even today news is coming out that the Cubs intend to go with a 6 man rotation at times. I kind of expected that to be honest we don't want our guys to wear down. Arrieta may have had that issue 2 years ago, Lackey is getting up there and Montgomery hasn't experienced that workload. That's all IF they stay healthy for the whole season. With an established 5 we don't have to push Ross and can let him take his time in rehab. I like Montgomery but I don't know if we can clearly state he's better than Ross. Obviously huge red flags with Ross right now but we'll see.

[BigbadB]

I hear ya and that all may be completely accurate, I don't know. Like I said I trust the FO just wondering. I do think Ross is perfect for the Cubs. I get the control part but even today news is coming out that the Cubs intend to go with a 6 man rotation at times. I kind of expected that to be honest we don't want our guys to wear down. Arrieta may have had that issue 2 years ago, Lackey is getting up there and Montgomery hasn't experienced that workload. That's all IF they stay healthy for the whole season. With an established 5 we don't have to push Ross and can let him take his time in rehab. I like Montgomery but I don't know if we can clearly state he's better than Ross. Obviously huge red flags with Ross right now but we'll see.

 

Montgomery can't be counted on for much more than 140-150 innings, if even that many. He has logged that many in the minors, but that's been a few years back. A 6 man rotation earlier than last year makes even more sense than it did last year. There is also the possibility that Montgomery isn't effective in the rotation, and slipping Ross into his spot when he's ready and moving Montgomery into a long reliever or spot starter. Best case scenario, both are effective and will be options in the rotation long term when Lackey and possibly Arrieta move on.

[davell]

We need to add two starters for depth, at this point. Ross, and some semblance of a guy that can start out in Iowa.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Brandon Phillips apparently blocked a trade to the Braves with his 10/5 rights despite being a Georgia native who still owns a home there. Allegedly he's not looking for an extension or other compensation but blocked the deal on a matter of principle, that he wants the Reds to make certain org changes before he'd accept a deal.

 

https://redlegnation.com/2017/01/05/brandon-phillips-blocked-a-trade-to-atlanta/

 

Related: The first 30 Google Image search results for "we were always right to hate" are from our own Lackey thread.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Related: The first 30 Google Image search results for "we were always right to hate" are from our own Lackey thread.

 

lmao this is great

[apete6]

We need to add two starters for depth, at this point. Ross, and some semblance of a guy that can start out in Iowa.

 

I still don't know why they hate Jason Hammel so much. He is the perfect 5/6 for this situation. Maybe he's just a pain in Maddon's ass and they didn't want to deal with him anymore, but the $/production would have been fine, particularly because they are in the Luxury Tax anyway.

[BigbadB]

We need to add two starters for depth, at this point. Ross, and some semblance of a guy that can start out in Iowa.

 

I still don't know why they hate Jason Hammel so much. He is the perfect 5/6 for this situation. Maybe he's just a pain in Maddon's ass and they didn't want to deal with him anymore, but the $/production would have been fine, particularly because they are in the Luxury Tax anyway.

 

I read somewhere that a shoulder issue kept him off the playoff roster and the shoulder concerns might be creating a buyer beware tag on a long term deal. Whether there is truth to that or the Cubs left him off the roster for the more typical reasons a 5th starter gets left off a playoff roster, I have no idea. It was always assumed Hammel would try to collect a long term deal this offseason, and the Cubs released him from the 2017 obligation so that he could do just that. That no one is pursuing him even this late in the offseason when pitching is thin in availability, but thick in need is odd. It won't cost anyone a draft pick and he's probably a nice middle rotation add to more than half the teams in the league.

 

I think the Cubs really want to give Montgomery a shot, so I don't think the Cubs would show any interest in Hammel even if he wanted to come back on a one year deal, or even the one year deal they could have had him for when the season ended.

[jersey cubs fan]

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[Cubswin11]

Gallardo sucks, Smith is decent. Odd trade

[OleMissCub]

Blast! Smith KEEPS slipping through our grasp! It's gonna happen one day.

[toonsterwu]

I sorta, sorta get it for Dipoto. He made the move for Dyson to improve the defense, but it left them thin, so they took a gambit on Gallardo, which is basically a one year deal (since it's a 2018 buyout), and the Orioles chipped in some money (IIRC). You hope that the park can help make Gallardo, with his decreasing fastball and increasing FB rate, passable, but I'm not certain about it. I'm just not sure how much better Dyson/Gallardo could be as a combination, even accounting for Dyson's defense, versus Karns/Smith.

 

Do like the deal for the opposing parties. Really think Karns is still an intriguing young arm and a good add for the Royals. Could be getting him at the right time. As for the Orioles, well ... Duquette gave up a pick for Gallardo last year, and until he starts to focus on fixing the farm, the Orioles are stuck playing out the string with this core, but just to focus on Gallardo for Smith - nice pickup for the Orioles, even if they need a righty hitting OF to platoon with Smith and/or Kim. I do wonder if the Orioles end up investigating Hammel - he's been there, they could perhaps use the rotation depth (Gausman/Tillman/Bundy and then ... Miley/Jimenez/Wright/Wilson?). Sliding Hammel in at 4 and letting Miley/Jimenez fight for one spot, while sticking Tyler Wilson in AAA and moving Wright to the pen looks much better.

[Post Count Padder]

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DiPoto at it again. Don't know much about the prospects the M's gave up, but Smith is a nice OF addition and I've liked Simmons for some time now. Could be an impact late inning arm for them.

 

EDIT: Now this

 

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[Cubswin11]

Bowden is saying the Rockies want to extend Cargo, what a confounding organization

[Post Count Padder]

Bowden is saying the Rockies want to extend Cargo, what a confounding organization

I still can't believe they gave Desmond 70 millions bucks to play first base.

[Cubswin11]

Bowden is saying the Rockies want to extend Cargo, what a confounding organization

I still can't believe they gave Desmond 70 millions bucks to play first base.

On top of losing a pick/pool money that's one of the worst FA signings I can think of in a while. They've spent about $100 on Desmond and Gerardo Parra the last two offseasons in FA.....

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Yeah that was fast

[Cubswin11]

Tampas OF is really crowded with left-handed bats right now with Rasmus, Smith, Dickerson and Kiermaier. I wonder if another move is coming for them. Also, not that I'd expect a ton back, they seem like a team to trade Szczur to if we feel he essentially has no spot here.