Random Offseason Musings and Rumors

[mdwilla]

Willy mo and Cliff Floyd were two of my favorite BP hitters. Ball had a special sound coming off Floyds bat.

[Bear Cub]

Cliff Floyd could really hit the ball hard. There was a different sound when he connected.

[Post Count Padder]

Pena signs the same day the Reds sign Arroyo. They were once traded for each other. #Illuminati

[Post Count Padder]

Indians sign Boone Logan. Looks like a one year deal plus an option. They'll have a pretty good pen again.

[Post Count Padder]

The Phillies and utilityman Chris Coghlan have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com (Twitter link). The deal includes an invitation to spring training.

 

The Reds are nearing a deal with veteran outfielder Desmond Jennings, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). Terms aren’t known, but it seems quite likely that it’s a minor-league pact; Cincinnati has previously made clear that it does not expect to add any new players to its 40-man roster this winter.

[Cubswin11]

Chris Coghlan "utility man" LOL

[Cubswin11]

Chris Coghlan "utility man" LOL

[Banedon]

The Twins DFA'd Byung Ho Park.

[Tim]

The Twins DFA'd Byung Ho Park.

One (?) day after Fangraphs did a "Don't give up on Byung Ho Park" piece.

[Post Count Padder]

The Twins DFA'd Byung Ho Park.

One (?) day after Fangraphs did a "Don't give up on Byung Ho Park" piece.

And they did so to make room for Matt Belisle........

[Post Count Padder]

The Braves have agreed to a minor-league deal with lefty Rex Brothers, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (via Twitter). Other terms of the agreement remain unreported. Brothers, 29, was picked up by the Cubs last winter. But he didn’t even make it through Spring Training before he was cut loose. Brothers struggled badly with his control while with the Chicago club, culminating with four wild pitches in a single spring frame. The veteran southpaw never ended up joining another organization, which rated as a surprise given his rather lengthy MLB track record.

 

I legit forgot about this guy. Was gonna be an interesting lefty addition to the pen and then we cut him and he never pitched in 2016.

[CubinNY]

Just give me Trout. horsefeathers pitchers.

The Yankees will have Trout and Harper if they want to spend the money.

 

Same can be said of the Cubs by the time those guys are FAs, probably even now.

no.

[davell]

The Cubs do not have Dodger or Yankee money. The Cubs don't truly have a firm grasp on what the new TV contract will look like. But its definitively NOT going to look like what the Dodgers got.

 

Anyway, just a bit of common sense will allow you to realize that the Cubs long term team is going to look a whole lot like the current one. There's not room for many longterm mega deals, outside of paying our own.

 

The new CBA kind of looks like its really trying to enforce a hard cap.

 

If you're in the LT, you lose your 2nd and 5th round picks for signing a QO FA. You lose a 2nd, if you are not in the LT. If you're in the LT, you're also losing a million from your IFA pool. Its 500,000 if you're not.

 

If you're in the LT and LOSE a player via FA that is a QO guy, you receive a pick after the 4th Round for him. If that same guy is on a team NOT in the LT, you receive a pick after the 1st or 2d round, depending on how much e signs for.

 

Then, you have the actual LT.....1st time offenders will pay a 20% tax on the overage. Its 30% for a 2nd straight year, and 50%, for a 3rd. These are increases from the last CBA. Technically, these numbers won't KILL you, if you hang out within 10-15 mill of the cap. Although losing the picks, IFA money, etc.....That'd suck.

 

However, there is also an additional 12% tax, when your team is between 20-40 million over the cap. You do that 3 times on the upper end of it, its costing you an additional 25+ mill a season, PLUS all the rest.

 

If this STILL doesn't sway you, there's a 90% percent tax on going over by more than 40 mill. Plus, you lose 10 spots to your 1st round pick automatically.

 

This CBA is why ALL teams are desperately trying to reset their LT. They have to be under this year or next year, in order to go after that big 2018, Harper-led class. Or watch themselves basically pay him 50% more than other teams have to.

 

People still poo on the loss of picks, IFA money, etc. Sorry, you're wrong. Its important in today's game. Sure, there's a time to do it. But its not something a team is going to continually do, year in and year out.

 

The LT is set up for teams to go over on occasion, but stay in that area within 20 mill. I'll be very surprised to see teams going over that baseline at ANY point during this CBA. Owners aren't going to give away 20-30 mill, PLUS get penalized in other ways too. And no team is hitting the worst area of the LT ever.

 

Take a quick look at OUR roster and you see Lester and Heyward are 20+ mill currently. You're going to be able to spend 20+ on ONE SP, at some point. That gets your current Arrieta money taken up longterm.

 

The pre-arb guys will get expensive soon. As I mentioned at one point, KB will literally go from under a mill to over 10 in one off season. And he's a 20 mill guy possibly by his 3rd Arb year, well over by his 4th. Russell may be making 15-20 mill by his last Arb year. Hendricks is going to get expensive. Javy might too. Schwarber will. Thank god we have Rizzo cheap.

 

Start adding these guys escalating prices into our payroll, plus regular, non elite additions.....We've probably got room for ONE elite FA, over this CBA. If we plan to hold onto our core group. And I'm sure we do.

[imb]

The Cubs do not have Dodger or Yankee money

 

Give it three years...or is it two? I forget

 

0 chance their deal looks anything like what LA got.

[davell]

195 in 2017, 197 in 2018, 206 in 2019, 208 in 2020, 210 in 2021.....That's the LT numbers going forward.

 

If we don't sign any other ML deals and keep our in-season moves to 15 mill or less, we probably reset ours this year.

 

If we somehow go over, we head into 2018 with just 79 mill on the books. Needing to replace Arrieta, Lackey, Davis, Montero, Jay, Uehara, Anderson, Strop, and Duensing. We will have Rondon and Grimm in Arb 3. We will have Bryant, Hendricks, Russell, Seal Boy, and Szczur in Arb 1.

 

So, that's the year it makes sense for us to make a big ticket buy. Especially since the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox look extremely likely to sit out the offseason mostly, to reset their LT.

 

Assuming normal 2018 production, here's why we aren't likely to spend heavily in 2019....

 

At this exact point, we have Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, and Rizzo under contract at 71.2 mill. Let's say we DO add a big FA in 2018 at 24.8, to take that to an even 96. If Grimm is around, he's in Arb 4. But forget him. You've got KB at a very possible 15 mill. Hendricks may be at 10. Russell too. That's 131 mill right there. With Schwarber, Baez, Montgomery, and possibly another guy or to, hitting Arb 1. You're sitting around 145 and needing to fill out half a roster for 60 mill.

 

The bottom line is our youngsters are going to really start eating up payroll. Cool, because they're awesome. They're still getting better too. Even WITHOUT huge FA help, we're set up as well or better than any of these other teams.

 

The true key here is with the penalties that are set up, its going to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or anyone else from grabbing more than one or two(at most) of these big FA coming up over the next few years.

 

We do NOT have the Yankees or Dodgers money. Its laughable to think otherwise. But it doesn't even matter. We're all going to be stuck in the same payroll area for this entire CBA. No one is going to pay the tax AND take the penalties in place too. If a team hits 230 mill in payroll between 2018 and thru the 2021 season, I'll be surprised. And if one does, it'll be during the 2021 season. Or just for one season in those years, with the ability to reset the following season.

 

Its a soft cap. And we're set up great for it.

[davell]

I don't see any of Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, or Heyward going anywhere over the next period of time. I know some here think Javy can be dealt. The depth and defense he provides is too great and has been mentioned by Theo way too often. Plus, if the bat takes a single step forward, it makes it to where no one wants to deal him. The one caveat here is if Happ looks great, maybe it allows them to deal Javy. But, it comes at the expense of run prevention, so I honestly think Happ is the one that gets moved.

 

Schwarber isn't going anywhere because the FO literally loves him. The makeup, his leadership, he's not going anywhere.

 

Heyward can't go anywhere. The rest aren't going anywhere obviously.

 

Pitching is whatever. Lester is obviously staying put. Pitchers being pitchers though, no one else is safe.

 

Yes, trades are going to be a key going forward. But, I STILL don't believe they'll make a high profile Archer type pitching trade, until I see it.

 

I think its much more likely we find our pitching, outside of FA,mostly from finding a longterm rotation piece from the Butler, Kelly, Perez type moves that they continually make.

 

If they DO make a relatively large trade for a SP, I don't see it taking away from our major league roster.

 

I think Eloy is here to eventually be a Cub. The rest are all conceivably going to be moved.

 

My complete GUESS at how our rotation looks in 2019.....

 

Lester(as our 4 due to regression), Hendricks(as our 2) Major FA signing(as our 1)one of Montgomery, Clifton, Cease, De La Cruz, Butler, Kelly, Perez, or a reclamation we haven't begun yet(as our 3 that turns out to be a steal), and a short term FA type. With depth stacked behind them.

[CubsWin]

In this discussion, it's important to keep in mind that according to Cot's Heyward has a full no trade clause in 2017 & 2018 but can be dealt in 2019 & 2020. Heyward can block a trade to 12 teams. After 2020, his 10 & 5 rights kick in and it's a full trade clause again.

 

2019 and 2020 just happen to be the years when Jimenez will most likely be MLB ready.

[Regular Show]

In this discussion, it's important to keep in mind that according to Cot's Heyward has a full no trade clause in 2017 & 2018 but can be dealt in 2019 & 2020. Heyward can block a trade to 12 teams. After 2020, his 10 & 5 rights kick in and it's a full trade clause again.

 

2019 and 2020 just happen to be the years when Jimenez will most likely be MLB ready.

 

Yeah, I was just about to mention this. If Heyward does not return to form and continues to struggle the Cubs may have to explore trades in 19' or 20' where they eat most of his contract, especially if E. Jimenez is ready to take over in RF. Kinda sucks that that is a possibility now, but we did get a WS Championship in year 1 of the contract...

[CubsWin]

In this discussion, it's important to keep in mind that according to Cot's Heyward has a full no trade clause in 2017 & 2018 but can be dealt in 2019 & 2020. Heyward can block a trade to 12 teams. After 2020, his 10 & 5 rights kick in and it's a full trade clause again.

 

2019 and 2020 just happen to be the years when Jimenez will most likely be MLB ready.

Yeah, I was just about to mention this. If Heyward does not return to form and continues to struggle the Cubs may have to explore trades in 19' or 20' where they eat most of his contract, especially if E. Jimenez is ready to take over in RF. Kinda sucks that that is a possibility now, but we did get a WS Championship in year 1 of the contract...

If he continues to struggle at the plate, yes, they'd have to eat a lot of that contract to move him. Of course, he's even more tradable if he returns to form.

 

Obviously, that's the scenario I'm hoping for. Heyward hits along the lines of his career numbers, remains healthy and continues his GG defense in RF. The Cubs are able to move him with prospects for whatever they need at the time while bringing up Eloy at the league minimum to take his place. The defense takes a big hit, but if Eloy progresses as he has been, the bat makes up for it. The Cubs are able to open up some payroll and fill some needs at the same time.

 

But a lot can happen between now and 2019/2020. It's just something to keep in mind when looking at the Cubs payroll options in the years ahead.

[davell]

Hammel gets 2/16 with a mutual option, from the Royals.

[NonProfitCow]

Hammel gets 2/16 with a mutual option, from the Royals.

That's a really good deal.

[imb]

In this discussion, it's important to keep in mind that according to Cot's Heyward has a full no trade clause in 2017 & 2018 but can be dealt in 2019 & 2020. Heyward can block a trade to 12 teams. After 2020, his 10 & 5 rights kick in and it's a full trade clause again.

 

2019 and 2020 just happen to be the years when Jimenez will most likely be MLB ready.

Yeah, I was just about to mention this. If Heyward does not return to form and continues to struggle the Cubs may have to explore trades in 19' or 20' where they eat most of his contract, especially if E. Jimenez is ready to take over in RF. Kinda sucks that that is a possibility now, but we did get a WS Championship in year 1 of the contract...

If he continues to struggle at the plate, yes, they'd have to eat a lot of that contract to move him. Of course, he's even more tradable if he returns to form.

 

Obviously, that's the scenario I'm hoping for. Heyward hits along the lines of his career numbers, remains healthy and continues his GG defense in RF. The Cubs are able to move him with prospects for whatever they need at the time while bringing up Eloy at the league minimum to take his place. The defense takes a big hit, but if Eloy progresses as he has been, the bat makes up for it. The Cubs are able to open up some payroll and fill some needs at the same time.

 

But a lot can happen between now and 2019/2020. It's just something to keep in mind when looking at the Cubs payroll options in the years ahead.

 

if heyward "returns to form" i really dont see the cubs moving him to put Eloy Jiminez in his place. They'd probably just keep the 6 WAR outfielder.

[Cubswin11]

If Heyward returns to form he's probably opting out one of the 2 years he has opt out options in

[Regular Show]

Yeah, I was just about to mention this. If Heyward does not return to form and continues to struggle the Cubs may have to explore trades in 19' or 20' where they eat most of his contract, especially if E. Jimenez is ready to take over in RF. Kinda sucks that that is a possibility now, but we did get a WS Championship in year 1 of the contract...

If he continues to struggle at the plate, yes, they'd have to eat a lot of that contract to move him. Of course, he's even more tradable if he returns to form.

 

Obviously, that's the scenario I'm hoping for. Heyward hits along the lines of his career numbers, remains healthy and continues his GG defense in RF. The Cubs are able to move him with prospects for whatever they need at the time while bringing up Eloy at the league minimum to take his place. The defense takes a big hit, but if Eloy progresses as he has been, the bat makes up for it. The Cubs are able to open up some payroll and fill some needs at the same time.

 

But a lot can happen between now and 2019/2020. It's just something to keep in mind when looking at the Cubs payroll options in the years ahead.

 

if heyward "returns to form" i really dont see the cubs moving him to put Eloy Jiminez in his place. They'd probably just keep the 6 WAR outfielder.

 

Well, again if he "returns to form" he probably would opt-out after the 2018 season right? I mean there is a wide-range of projections for what J. Heyward will do in the future. I don't believe the Cubs are especially optimistic that he'll be a 6 WAR outfielder ever again. He could still be a decent player, though.

 

I do believe E. Jimenez is the future in RF (whenever he is deemed ready).

[imb]

I mean i think there's as much a chance that Jiminez is good as there is that heyward rebounds, but i also remember that like 5 years ago bubba starling and brett jackson were top 35 prospects