Random Offseason Musings and Rumors

[davell]

The fact is, that we're very likely to trade off some of our best prospects for a SP at some point soon. Our system is OK currently. Certainly not special. And after the top 6, a lot of interchangeable parts. The huge expenditure in IFA's in 2015? Doesn't appear to have anything that remotely resembles a Torres or Eloy type talent. We may need other reinforcements at some point soon, based on injury. The 28th pick and accompanying slot money IS important. Because we very likely will be signing top tier FA in 2018 and 2019. We'll lose picks then. Depending on if we're in the LT, it could be multiple picks. At any rate, its a reason to think seriously about an averagish system that will be fairly barren, if a trade for a SP happens.

 

I'm all for losing that pick in the right situation. A 1 year deal for an old OFer, when we've got a full positional roster? That's something Dave Stewart does, not Theo Epstein. Thank God.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

 

Right? Especially since they currently have 4 in the first 105 or so.

 

So let them utilize all four and try to rebuild the system a little bit rather than just use one for a position that isn't even a need while also spending $18 million to do it.

 

They can keep the pick and utilize it, or they can give it away to sign somebody. I dont care either way. But "we'd lose a draft pick" should not be listed among the negatives of signing anybody, because who cares? Personally, I think Bautista would negatively impact the defense more than he would positively impact the offense. That speaks more to how highly i think of our offense than anything bad about bautista. Id pass. Just not cuz of no draft pick.

 

Agreed. To be clear, I'm not saying don't give up a draft pick to sign a player. I'm saying don't give one up to sign this specific player.

 

That said, I'll never agree that giving up high draft picks should always be in the "who cares" category. Not when we have the guys making the decisions that we do.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bautista is SNTS personified.

 

1st round picks matter.

 

Jay was better than Bautista last year.

[imb]

horsefeathers now i have to figure out what SNTS stands for

[davell]

horsefeathers now i have to figure out what SNTS stands for

 

Shiny new toy syndrome

[Tryptamine]

I don't really give a horsefeathers about losing the ~28th pick in the draft

 

Right? Especially since they currently have 4 in the first 105 or so. They've got an extremely young and raw farm system too so the farm is not being made or broken by the 28th pick in the draft.

 

After last year's draft, I'm all in favor of beefing up the farm again this offsesason. Especially when you look forward to 2 seasons from now where they'll most likely be splurging on FA at the cost of the draft once again.

[Bote McBoteface]

 

So let them utilize all four and try to rebuild the system a little bit rather than just use one for a position that isn't even a need while also spending $18 million to do it.

 

They can keep the pick and utilize it, or they can give it away to sign somebody. I dont care either way. But "we'd lose a draft pick" should not be listed among the negatives of signing anybody, because who cares? Personally, I think Bautista would negatively impact the defense more than he would positively impact the offense. That speaks more to how highly i think of our offense than anything bad about bautista. Id pass. Just not cuz of no draft pick.

 

Agreed. To be clear, I'm not saying don't give up a draft pick to sign a player. I'm saying don't give one up to sign this specific player.

 

That said, I'll never agree that giving up high draft picks should always be in the "who cares" category. Not when we have the guys making the decisions that we do.

 

Id only hesitate to give up a top 10 pick, but those are protected anyway. 11-15 i might not be excited and there may be certain players I wouldnt do it for. Anything beyond that, Id only pretend to care if I was in the FO and using it as leverage to pay less. That would change if we were in a position like we were in 2010-2014, but we arent.

[CubsWin]

The fact is, that we're very likely to trade off some of our best prospects for a SP at some point soon. Our system is OK currently. Certainly not special. And after the top 6, a lot of interchangeable parts. The huge expenditure in IFA's in 2015? Doesn't appear to have anything that remotely resembles a Torres or Eloy type talent. We may need other reinforcements at some point soon, based on injury. The 28th pick and accompanying slot money IS important. Because we very likely will be signing top tier FA in 2018 and 2019. We'll lose picks then. Depending on if we're in the LT, it could be multiple picks. At any rate, its a reason to think seriously about an averagish system that will be fairly barren, if a trade for a SP happens.

 

I'm all for losing that pick in the right situation. A 1 year deal for an old OFer, when we've got a full positional roster? That's something Dave Stewart does, not Theo Epstein. Thank God.

This.

 

The Cubs currently have the 27th and 30th picks. The first number could move up to 25th depending on who signs Bautista and Trumbo.

 

In 2014, the 27th pick was Luke Weaver. Michael Kopech was taken 33rd.

In 2013, the 25th pick was Christian Arroyo, 29th pick was Ryne Stanek.

In 2012, the top of the 2nd round is loaded with good/decent players.

In 2011, the 25th pick was Joe Ross, the 27th pick is Robert Stephenson, the 29th pick was Joe Panik.

 

Admittedly, the 27th and 30th picks in any draft are no sure things, but with the scouting and development staffs Jason McLeod has put together, I'd much rather have a shot at getting a Weaver, Kopech, Arroyo, Stephenson or Panik for 6 years than acquire Bautista for 1 year on a team where offense is not going to be a problem.

[Gilby]

I'm kind of surprised the Cubs haven't come up in any Quintana rumors. If Hahn really is running things this offseason, I don't think the crosstown stuff would be an issue. Between Eloy, Happ, Candelario, etc it seems like there could be a match in there somewhere since they supposedly want a bat-heavy return.

 

Is Eloy a top 20 guy currently, or not that high?

[davell]

Eloy IS in that range. Maybe even a tad higher. A lot of teams would prefer guys closer to the majors, for the lead piece, of a deal.

 

Hahn DID say he'd not count the Cubs out, but it seems like PR due to the story of them not wanting to deal with us. Jed said it'd be extremely hard to make a deal of any magnitude crosstown. He mentioned having to pay an extra tax. I completely believe him. And I don't think our FO is in overpay mode, especially at the current time.

 

They'll get a package close to what Sale brought them. I don't see it coming from us.

 

My guess is its Ross or bust for a FA signing and a trade involving Candelario for a post hype guy that's lost a bit of luster. I think we'll probably make a major deal for a SP at the deadline personally.

[KingCubsFan]

Eloy IS in that range. Maybe even a tad higher. A lot of teams would prefer guys closer to the majors, for the lead piece, of a deal.

 

Hahn DID say he'd not count the Cubs out, but it seems like PR due to the story of them not wanting to deal with us. Jed said it'd be extremely hard to make a deal of any magnitude crosstown. He mentioned having to pay an extra tax. I completely believe him. And I don't think our FO is in overpay mode, especially at the current time.

 

They'll get a package close to what Sale brought them. I don't see it coming from us.

 

My guess is its Ross or bust for a FA signing and a trade involving Candelario for a post hype guy that's lost a bit of luster. I think we'll probably make a major deal for a SP at the deadline personally.

Agree. I think they're hoping a few pitching prospects break out to give them some additional currency at the deadline.

[CubsWin]

I think we'll probably make a major deal for a SP at the deadline personally.

Agree. I think they're hoping a few pitching prospects break out to give them some additional currency at the deadline.

These have been my thoughts throughout this discussion of trading Candelario for AAA depth (which in my opinion would be a terrible idea even in a win now situation).

 

If the Cubs can't get a young controllable starter with upside this offseason with a package built around Happ/Candelario/Clifton, etc., I would much rather they keep Candelario and see how he does in AAA (hopefully further building his trade value after a remarkable 2nd half) and wait for guys like Clifton, De La Cruz, Hatch and Albertos to more clearly establish trade value.

 

After all, it would be nice to add such a long-term starter at the deadline to bolster a 2nd half run, but (barring injuries) they won't need him until next off season and certainly not now.

[CubinNY]

I do not want the to trade Eloy. I think that would be a huge mistake. I can't believe the put him out there for Chapman.

[CubsWin]

I do not want the to trade Eloy. I think that would be a huge mistake. I can't believe the put him out there for Chapman.

That was never confirmed. In fact, some bloggers with decent access to Cubs FO have denied that ever happened.

 

That said, I wouldn't want them to trade him either. Unless it's for a player like Sale.

[imb]

I do not want the to trade Eloy. I think that would be a huge mistake. I can't believe the put him out there for Chapman.

That was never confirmed. In fact, some bloggers with decent access to Cubs FO have denied that ever happened.

 

That said, I wouldn't want them to trade him either. Unless it's for a player like Sale.

 

Gleyber is probably more highly-regarded than Eloy and we actually traded him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I do not want the to trade Eloy. I think that would be a huge mistake. I can't believe the put him out there for Chapman.

That was never confirmed. In fact, some bloggers with decent access to Cubs FO have denied that ever happened.

 

That said, I wouldn't want them to trade him either. Unless it's for a player like Sale.

 

Gleyber is probably more highly-regarded than Eloy and we actually traded him.

 

Oh yeah. Gleyber was more highly regarded at the deadline and still is. Gleyber will probably be a unanimous top 5 prospect in baseball while Eloy should be a top 25 prospect on most lists. Obviously Gleyber was more superfluous so it made it easier to part with him.

[CubsWin]

That was never confirmed. In fact, some bloggers with decent access to Cubs FO have denied that ever happened.

 

That said, I wouldn't want them to trade him either. Unless it's for a player like Sale.

 

Gleyber is probably more highly-regarded than Eloy and we actually traded him.

 

Oh yeah. Gleyber was more highly regarded at the deadline and still is. Gleyber will probably be a unanimous top 5 prospect in baseball while Eloy should be a top 25 prospect on most lists. Obviously Gleyber was more superfluous so it made it easier to part with him.

And that's why I'm glad they hung onto Eloy.

 

I wasn't happy with the Chapman/Torres trade when it happened. Of course, I didn't know the state of Rondon and Strop's health at that time either. That kind of overpay was a shock to the system after the value-based mindset that Theo & Jed employed to get the Cubs where they are. In hindsight, it all worked out.

 

Eloy is at least 2 years away. Plenty of time for the Cubs to see what they have in Almora and for Heyward to regain his stroke (or not). Interesting to note that Heyward has a no trade clause for this season and next, but the Cubs have a window to trade him (if necessary & possible) in 2019 and 2020 (before his 10 & 5 rights kick in) right when Eloy will be knocking on the door.

[David]

 

Gleyber is probably more highly-regarded than Eloy and we actually traded him.

 

Oh yeah. Gleyber was more highly regarded at the deadline and still is. Gleyber will probably be a unanimous top 5 prospect in baseball while Eloy should be a top 25 prospect on most lists. Obviously Gleyber was more superfluous so it made it easier to part with him.

And that's why I'm glad they hung onto Eloy.

 

I wasn't happy with the Chapman/Torres trade when it happened. Of course, I didn't know the state of Rondon and Strop's health at that time either. That kind of overpay was a shock to the system after the value-based mindset that Theo & Jed employed to get the Cubs where they are. In hindsight, it all worked out.

 

Eloy is at least 2 years away. Plenty of time for the Cubs to see what they have in Almora and for Heyward to regain his stroke (or not). Interesting to note that Heyward has a no trade clause for this season and next, but the Cubs have a window to trade him (if necessary & possible) in 2019 and 2020 (before his 10 & 5 rights kick in) right when Eloy will be knocking on the door.

 

Seems like an overstatement. Granted, we don't have a lot to go on with their IFA signings, but this organization hasn't been shy to be aggressive with promotions. I don't know as much as many here, but I could easily see him in AA by sometime next year, with a big league promotion sometime in 2018.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I don't care what the rankings said at the time or positional need. Eloy's been number one in my book since Contreras graduated and I would've been very annoyed if we dealt him instead of Torres.

[KingCubsFan]

I don't care what the rankings said at the time or positional need. Eloy's been number one in my book since Contreras graduated and I would've been very annoyed if we dealt him instead of Torres.

Agreed. A lot of Torres' value is tied up in the fact that he can play SS or 2B with an above average bat. Russell obviously isn't going anywhere so I much preferred to trade a guy who, if at all works out, would have become our future 2B as opposed to the one prospect we have with legit middle of the order bat. Positional value be damned.

[Tryptamine]

What Eloy brings to the table is so much more rare in the minors right now than what Gleyber brings. Quite honestly there's a half dozen other shortstop prospects with slightly varying talents who aren't terribly far off Gleyber's level. However, if you search for guys like Eloy who have monster power and the ability to hit for average with improving plate discipline you've got Cody Bellinger and recently graduated Alex Bregman.

[CubsWin]

 

Oh yeah. Gleyber was more highly regarded at the deadline and still is. Gleyber will probably be a unanimous top 5 prospect in baseball while Eloy should be a top 25 prospect on most lists. Obviously Gleyber was more superfluous so it made it easier to part with him.

And that's why I'm glad they hung onto Eloy.

 

I wasn't happy with the Chapman/Torres trade when it happened. Of course, I didn't know the state of Rondon and Strop's health at that time either. That kind of overpay was a shock to the system after the value-based mindset that Theo & Jed employed to get the Cubs where they are. In hindsight, it all worked out.

 

Eloy is at least 2 years away. Plenty of time for the Cubs to see what they have in Almora and for Heyward to regain his stroke (or not). Interesting to note that Heyward has a no trade clause for this season and next, but the Cubs have a window to trade him (if necessary & possible) in 2019 and 2020 (before his 10 & 5 rights kick in) right when Eloy will be knocking on the door.

 

Seems like an overstatement. Granted, we don't have a lot to go on with their IFA signings, but this organization hasn't been shy to be aggressive with promotions. I don't know as much as many here, but I could easily see him in AA by sometime next year, with a big league promotion sometime in 2018.

It could be an over statement if he performs in the same dominant fashion at the 3 levels he has ahead of him. Who really knows. All I know is he played Low-A last season, will most likely start in High-A this year and the rest is up to him. The Cubs have been aggressive with some of their college picks and generally very patient with their high school/IFA guys. If he comes up inside of 2 years, it'll be by a month or so just to get a taste.

 

For me, the most likely earliest time he could be a starter for the Cubs is 2 years away in 2019. And that's if everything goes right.

[Cubswin11]

Eloy is gonna be what Georgie should've been if the organization got him in the system earlier and without the injuries

[CubsWin]

Eloy is gonna be what Georgie should've been if the organization got him in the system earlier and without the injuries

That would be great. I hope you're right.

[davell]

I really do think our idea is to hold onto Eloy as he develops into yet another middle of the order monster. Our eventual(or current) trade bait is the following.....

 

Candelario- Not a ton of value on his own, but could possibly net a post hype type on his own, as a future average regular at 3B.

 

Szczur- Could be moved for non sexy rotational depth at any point, as he's likely the odd man out here. But is a major league depth guy.

 

Happ- Is he a lead piece in a large deal? Nah. But he's a guy that has a bat that can play on the corner and is very valuable at 2B. Probably won't sniff top 25 prospect lists at any point, but an extremely solid second piece in a large deal.

 

Clifton- Showed a ton of progress this past year and if he continues this at AA, he could move past Happ in value. With teams always clamoring for pitching, he's a very valuable piece.

 

Cease- If he dominates in full season ball, possibly even at MB, this becomes our lead piece in a major deal. Of course, if he does this, he skyrockets up lists and into the top 25. Which makes it hurt to trade him for less than a long term answer.

 

Zagunis- Does not have a spot for us, but is a solid throw in that will see the majors. Possibly even as a high OBP type that finds his way to 400 AB's a year. 4th OFer type, not much more than that. Probably around the same individual value as Szczur, but with more team control.

 

Caratini- Non zero chance he develops into a second division starting C. Worst case, he's a solid backup. Chance to sell relatively high if he hits right off the bat in AAA. As a C, he should be slightly more valuable than Zagunis.

 

De La Cruz- If he stays healthy, he's got a chance to break into top 100 lists. Which would make him a solid 2nd piece in a large deal, or possibly a lead piece for a rental. Very volatile, could be a guy we need to move very quickly.

 

Hatch- No pro experience yet. But has really impressed in Instructs. Could have more value than De La Cruz, even if both are healthy. Potential top 100 upside? Very possible, especially since he's got a chance to start in MB himself.

 

DeWees or Chesny Young I'll list them together.Since DeWees has a good chance to see Tennessee in 2017. Obviously not more than a 3rd piece, but he's got a slim chance at becoming a second division regular, so he's potentially a factor. Young evidently won't stop hitting. He's not likely to be a regular, but I see the potential of a LeMahieu. So, he's very likely to be a guy teams want to get as a throw in.

 

Breakout types- I have no idea WHO it becomes, but between guys like Eddy Julio Martinez, Jose Albertos, Brailyn Marquez, Aramis Ademan, Isaac Parades, Bailey Clark, Jose Paulino, DJ Wilson, Bryan Hudson, Erling Moreno, Ryan Kellogg, Justin Steele, Jake Stinnett, and Duane Underwood....But one of that group, maybe two, will become viable trade candidates over the season. Most are too far away to factor in this season as solid trade options. But they could fill in as third pieces, or in a few cases, based on upside, maybe as a second.

 

Two top 35ish picks- As of now, this draft is strong in college pitching. So these picks are super valuable and could really help the system replenish from a trade OR even wind up factoring in as the trade pieces that we eventually use after 2017.....