toonsterwu

Don't love the trade for the Marlins. I guess I mildly get it - there's a ton of intrigue with Salas, so he may be the hope/upside they are banking on, but giving up a 2 years of a top young pitcher like Lopez seems to be buying high on Arraez, and I'm not a big fan of Arraez's profile as a consistent long term elite bat-on-ball guy. Maybe it's just the type - I admit to never doing a deep dive/look on Arraez to care, with all that I've been dealing with. Curious who the third guy is. I'm more curious if other rumored offers gets leaked out, to see what they were comparing against. Edit: Last guy's supposed to be Byron Chourio. Doesn't change the equation, but may sort of show with Salas and Chourio that they were looking for some high ceiling chips to go with Arraez. May.

Hey, I've had some personal issues to deal with over the last year and a half so I don't follow baseball as much as before (other than chuckling to myself when I saw Matt Swarmer in the bigs). I think chatter right now has Teel mid-late first, and as a talent, he is far superior to that. Honestly, this may sound like a weird comp, but he sort of makes me think of a smaller ... Bryce Harper. And by smaller, I'm only referencing height ... I think his bat has insanely high potential. I think UVA is bouncing back a bit overall. Saw some stuff on the arms coming in, and besides the top arms, there's a couple sleepers I really like, and they got good college transfers this year (not like last year, when it was sort of let's take sleepers). Well, can't say bouncing back since they were in the CWS two years ago. I still don't buy McGarry as a longterm starter (his stuff just can't carry the inconsistent control, IMO, but I'm hopeful I'm wrong), but it is starting to convince me that UVA arms need to go when they can. The guy that's really turning my head is Mike Vasil - the former top prep pick who sort of disappeared at UVA, and now looks like a possible mid-rotation arm if all goes well. Newell ... the Dodgers have a rough one there that I just don't buy. Love the kid's attitude and flair, but they have to heavily temper that strikeout rate, improve the hit tool, while maintaining the power. I mean, if there's an organization that could do it, maybe the Dodgers could, but I just don't see it. He reminds me too much of former UVA/SF Giants CF Jarrett Parker, but Jarrett had less issues, relatively speaking. As for bats, I'm just not sure what Jake Gelof is. I'm just not sure it's enough in a 1st/LF role.

Yeah, I love Willson, but I don't see things going all that well for him from age 32ish onward. Which is why I could stomach letting him go. That said, he'll almost certainly hurt us a time or two over the next couple of years, and I'm not looking forward to it. His positional flexibility and introduction of the DH may mitigate the aging question somewhat. I heard an interview with JD last year where he said that if Willie were to come back to the Cubs it was understood that he would be doing much less catching; maybe the Cardinals will transition him as well. I'm not sure I'd give him 4 years at that AAV unless the plan was he would be the main catcher and maybe DH on the side.

Really a side note, but locally, talk is that they are content about moving Ramon Urias to 2nd, have Mateo at short, and Gunnar at 3rd. I'm not sure how much I believe that, but the chatter seems to be MI is only an option if something falls in their lap, which goes against the early thinking (early thinking had them going after a top shortstop, but they seem pleased with Mateo's defense their).

That's shocking. AAV not so much (although higher than I'd be willing) but 5 years? I wish him well, but I think he's already plateaued so you never know when the rapid slide may happen. That said, Cards are sort of in a win-now mode for the next few years, despite their farm, so it makes some sense for them do it. I'll be curious how their situation shakes out over the next decade. Can they seamlessly transition from this win-now group to a new young core? Rarely happens, but the near ready high upside talent gives them a shot.

Isn't the Murphy market supposedly hot and the A's demands high? I'm honestly okay if they wait on catcher if the price is out of sorts.

Offseason looks solid so far. A good gamble on Bellinger bouncing back, and if he does, maybe he'll give the Cubs more consideration next year. If not, it's a one year gamble and a wait on the future. I really thought Taillon might get more AAV. He basically got what has been roughly market value for the 2nd tier of FA starters over the past 6-8 years, roughly around 15 mil. Was worried he'd take 5 for whoever got him - getting him at 4 is fine for age and where the team is at. Some of these offseason deals ... well, we say it every year, don't look great. I'm surprisied the Padres were supposedly ready to blow the Yankees offer away on Judge. I figure deals will settle, and we'll be talking about the trade market soon. Rodon is probably going to wait - don't see any team coming close to his demands, unless I'm just way off.

I'm okay with Willson leaving. They should've gotten a bag of beans for him (joking obviously, but it seems like getting value greater than a compensation pick was possible) because him leaving was always the most likely scenario. I think he's got a couple good years left, but I just don't think he's going to be that productive for that long. Still one of the more surprising positivie development stories in recent Cubs history that I recall off the top. I really didn't think he was much off his A ball days, and it was what, when he went to AA that the bat took off and signs of development behind the dish really clarified. I mean, with the position switch and the struggles at the plate, he was really somewhat off the radar back then despite the potential (but in hindsight, struggles made sense, as he was learning a new position... that said, so many switches don't work. I recall when Jovan Rosa moved to catcher.) He had a great run with us, and will be remembered as a Cub no matter how the rest of his career goes.

I'm sure if I thought deeper about it, I could come up with something, but this sure feels like one of the deepest college drafts in recent history. As a UVA fan, the most interesting thing to me is what they do with Kyle Teel. If he shows that his bat can bounce back to his freshman season while sticking behind the plate, he's a possible top 10 pick. There was some thought his bat wore down last year due to the wear and tear behind the plate. He wants to stick behind the plate, but his bat may be too valuable, for them and for him, to stay there. Curious when Tanner Witt can start throwing. Could be an interesting factor to see who pops him on his upside.

The Soto race is fascinating in that .. I'm not sure which team that can spend is going to want to shell out top prospects and extend him at a massive deal. Then, the other factor in any Soto race is this - will be there be smaller market teams that decide to take their shot, and potentially think about moving him in the offseason? The team I'm looking at is Cleveland, who has enough young assets to make a move. Honestly, I still wonder if he stays put this year, and the Natioanls see if they can bridge the gap. It sounds like they had resolved the deferred money issue, and they just didn't want the contract so backloaded (and they wanted to see if the Nats could be competitive sooner than later). It makes sense for the Nationals to want to backload it, with Corbin's contract coming off the books in 2 years, that will free things up. That said, the Nationals should demand an arm and a leg, but if no one forks it over, it isn't the worst idea to see how things look at the next trade deadline. Conceivably, the mess of a rotation could look better, as Cavallli looks to be tightening things up, and Cole Henry could be in the rotation to join Gray and whoever remains. The bats are a big problem for the system, as it's thin, but with Green and the Cuban they signed last year, there's two headline pieces. They'd have to resign Josh Bell, but add another OF bat and a MI, and the outlook could look a lot better next year. If they were a bit closer, the Rangers would make a ton of sense. They made a big push to get into it, they've added two premier arms in Leiter and Rocker, still have some arm depth in the system, and have upper level positional depth. Just too far out of it for it to really make sense, unless they are thinking about buying Soto now and seeing how things look next year.

Despite being fairly pessimistic about the state of organization and the minors, relatively speaking, I actually, and I may regret saying this, like this draft so far. You are taking a guy in Horton with elite upside, who has already had TJ, which might be viewed as a positive, with low mileage. Most importantly, you are putting him into a pro environment, where he will have more attention paid to him than college coaches have time for. That can only be a plus for his baseball development. Do I have concerns? Sure, but at the very least, this says to me that the Cubs are confident in their pitching approach now, and honestly, after a wishy-washy decade of pitching development, it's good to see them make this move. I suspect they know his number (well, no, they obviously know his number) and planned this out in advance, so I imagine it'll be a slight underslot to bring in Ferris, I wouldn't expect huge savings - with another offseason, and 2 years of draft eligibility left, he really could've taken off big time next year and been considered by some in the top 5-10 or so entering the season for next year's draft, so I doubt it'll be massive savings. With Ferris, we're clearly seeing a mold and preference, and the upside seems stronger than Gray last year. Both likely will take some time, but it's a good gamble. To accurately judge the draft, leaving aside the benefit of hindsight, we'll need to know what they do with the rest of their draft. That said, getting top pitching in their was definitely needed, and they took two shots to right that side of the ledger. Now, it was a weak pitching draft, but overall, Ferris was fine in the 2nd, and i think Horton is fine in the first. Slightly high maybe, but sounds like he was going soon, so the Cubs took their shot. That said, since it was a weak pitching draft, there is a fair space to critique passing on other talent, since the system isn't that great to justify focusing on positions vs. talent, so I get the criticism on passing on Lee, but drafts are viewed as much for how the picks stack up after the first 4-5 rounds, so we'll have to wait and see. While it's somewhat irrelevant, I'd be stunned if Horton isn't top 5. Depending on how the 2nd half goes, I think you could make a case for him as high as 3 or 4. As for Ferris, it depends on the 2nd half of the year and how some guys play, but I like him better than Gray, so I'm guessing he'll be in that 8-15 range depending on individual preferences.

We'll see on PCA, I guess. The A numbers are great. He's probably been pushing it in A+. He made major swing changes this season, IIRC, to generate more power. I'm curious how those swing changes hold up against tougher pitching and if it impacts his hit tool in any way (and his hit tool was good, but not plus, and if he's not a good hit tool guy, then his value slides down enough ... I mean, pre-power surge, his intrigue was that he could be a .280 plus defensive center fielder). Look, right now, pre-draft, is he top 75? Probably top 50, based on graduations. At the end of the year? I'm just not convinced he's a lock for top 75. Leaving aside an influx of guys that will slide him down a bit, I'm curious how his bat holds up in A+ to see if we can truly get an idea on what his offensive potential is. Yeah, it's odd for me to be that concerned about a guy like this, considering how I tended to view prospects. Edit: Btw, I'm not discounting PCA. I think he's going to get to the majors in some role, fairly easily because of that glove. That said, I'm not yet convinced he's a consistent starter. To be fair, maybe my own perceptions of PCA are inhibiting my view of his season as a breakout, because by all measures it is, so that's fair. But no, I'm not discounting PCA.

Actually, I did forget about Gallardo. He has been having an excellent season, and he's a kid who I think the K's might spike up as he moves up, which isn't always the case. Here's hoping at least. Maybe I am undervaluing PCA. That I'll fully acknowledge, although I tend to think that the gap from PCA to Kevin Made right now isn't as big as some suggest and I don't think anyone is arguing on Made as a top 75 prospect (although maybe there is a case for it ... plus defensive shortstop who has shown improved discipline with 15HR potential (okay maybe 15 is his peak, but I don't know current scouting reports) is quite valuable). Maybe I'm drawing a fine line. That list is nice, but half of those guys don't really make a difference right now to begin with, if we're being brutally honest. I mean, several guys are organizational filler, or at best, end of the bench options if they get the majors (Andy Weber comes to mind). I'd be the first one to say based on a quick glance, there's a lot of guys Im satisfied with. A lot of guys who seem to be developing positively. There really hasn't been many breakouts. I mean, I'm on board with the idea that Triantos might be the best bat in the system in a few years, but there's some projection and, well, wishing, on that, despite being a relatively "polished" HS kid. I'm not convinced PCA is a lock for top 75. Top 100 yes. Again, maybe a fine line I'm drawing there. Don't know ... I don't get the feeling that this system is strong enough, as it stands, pre-draft, right now, to hope that any sort of timeline can be accelerated based upon the system, if that makes sense. Edit: As for Devers, yes, the numbers look fascinating. I assume the scouting report is still vaguely the same (deception on his delivery, fastball touching mid-90's but a bit straight, vaguely recall a 55 being slapped on the change and a work in progress curveball). He's a guy that needs a bump up to see if that secondary stuff is can really excel against tougher bats. Although if I'm being fair, his season does qualify as a breakout-ish type season, so that's one I missed.

Might be the most exciting thing in the Cubs minors this year (half-kidding, but what's also funny is that BA has him listed at 5'0" at last check, I think Cubs site says it's 5'10" but 5 flat would've been ... well interesting to say the least) ... fully admitting I don't follow things like I used to, this seems like a very lackluster year so far from the system. Nothing really exciting - granted, exciting sometimes doesn't pan out (still remember Oscar de la Cruz's dominant A ball season, and well, who can forget Trey McNutt's sudden rise and fall ... it's been so long I really don't recall what happened to McNutt). Who's that standout player or two that seems to be catching eyes, that could potentially be considered a key trade asset or someone to build around? Again, these guys don't necessarily pan out that way, but for a system that a year or so ago that we were trying to talk into a fast restock, about the only guy that stands out to me is DJ Herz, and I feel hopeful enough about those mechanics. I guess Killian, and I'm not too worried about the starts so far, but I can't help but feel the number 3 ceiling that people slap on him might just be a bit high. I half want to say Moises Ballesteros, but well, he's in RoK. Davis' surgery really puts a damper on things, although it's nice that it doesn't sound that serious. Still, any loss of work for a guy who could use all the AB's he can get, is disappointing. Actually, after getting lost in the wayside, I think what Kevin Made's done is quite standout. If he can keep this up another few weeks, I'd like to see his bat get a run up a level. Hard for me to think he isn't a top 10 guy in the system if there were midseason lists, if not higher. Power is showing well, bat is playing fine with improved discipline, which doesn't always happen, and by most accounts, he's still a plus defender, right? I mean, I think you could argue top 5 for Made with those improvements. I'm not that worried on Alcantara's K's yet, though they are alarming. For people following, are the K's a result of say, types of pitches (is he missing breaking balls?), pitch recognition, or overaggressiveness? Hope Triantos' recent HR surge is a sign of things clicking for him. Am I missing someone/something? I guess PCA is up there. Don't know why, but I keep feeling like his skillset, he should hit in the A ball ranks, so maybe I undervalue him. Still, it seems like a fairly disappointing season in the minors from an outside looking in standpoint for me. Assuming Killian graduates, outside of Davis, do we have another top 75 prospect type? I guess I ask this because it almost feels like for all the talk about a fast restock, we're basically looking at a "normal" rebuild, where we'll need a couple good drafts to mix in, and hope for a breakout or two, and hope to get an elite talent high in the draft next year to anchor around. Puts the next window closer to 2025 than I was hoping last fall, and thats if a lot of things go right. Don't know why I'm so pessimistic. Just doesn't look great.

I'm not sure I see a lot of "boom", myself? A "boom" pitcher needs some combination of both stuff and command. We've got guys who can be major league contributors, but I'm not sure I'm seeing big "boom" guys? Do Killian or Wicks have the stuff to be "boom", versus 3-4-5 guys? Do Herz or Bain or Franklin have the control to "boom"? Similar for hitters. Do I imagine any of our guys with the power-contact-defense profile to perhaps project as being in-consideration-for-top-5-MVP-guys? Maybe Hernandez will be, beats me. Maybe PCA will develop into a 15-20 HR guy and be really good. But many of the others just seem to have enough imperfections that while useful is within reach for some, "boom" seems relatively remote. I guess it comes down to how one defines boom. I wasn't exactly thinking top 5 MVP possibilities. Rather, just more whether or not they can become solid Tier 1 starters. Put it another way - it's a very high risk system, right now. As for the pitching, really, the only guy is Killian right now, IMO. He's what, a 60/55 guy right now, 4 pitches, can get to the mid-90's, solid command. I think that potentially has the makings of more than "just" a 3/4/5 guy. Anyhow, admittedly, I haven't followed much in months. Probably a lot of changes I'm not aware of. As for possible top 5 MVP level guys in our system, the three guys I'm looking at would be Hernandez, Triantos, Alcantara. That said, if we produce two Tier 1 starters out of our top guys right now, I'd be fairly pleased.