craig

I appreciate the soft-skills approach, and calling guys up for a while before you're actually going to use them. Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos, those all seemed appropriate. I think it's smart, given that we don't use 26th man much anyway. I just think the balance of values in Ayers case, the developmental costs and the 40-man costs outweigh the gains given the circumstances. But I'm not the boss, Hoyer and Hawkins will balance their values and make their decision.

Yeah, lots of space for different opinions. Mine is that he's not going to gain as much from seven September AB's, as the AB's he'll lose from missing spring training, and from missing whatever portion of April/May/June/July does get lost. I just figure getting a full minor-league season next year (until such point as a callup makes sense) is more valuable than a handful of September AB's. Most of the learning by being up with the big-league team could be learned by being invited up to experience the team life, but without needing to actually be rostered.

I think that's a **very** bad idea, until/unless there is Kelly/Amaya injury. There's going to be a lockout next year, perhaps a long, very long, one. I'd like to see Ayers keep developing. Keep practicing his defense. Confirm that he can hit next year against AAA pitching. Bringing him up for September, just to watch life in the majors and how professional the big-leaguers are, that will lock him out of the minors next season. Not worth it. I have no argument with bringing him in a non-roster capacity. Hang out in the clubhouse, watch and hang with Bregman and Hoerner, see how Kelly and Amaya prepare and do their meetings, etc.. But don't put him on active roster that costs him the lockout.

Birdsell is there at 24. It seems a long time for him. Has anybody heard any updates on his rehab? Like, he's been seen throwing in Mesa, all is well? Or has he maybe had some setbacks?

Happy to have Kepley stacking a couple of games, playing CF, and getting a couple of SB. I infer that he must be reasonably healthy, including his legs. Also great to see his fast start at Knoxville. Hope he can get hot and stay hot for a while. Putting up good offense in AA will strengthen his trade value. And power-wise, 39% of his hits have been for XB, with a decent dose of HR's and triples. I know the board hasn't been too keen on Kepley. Natural pushback to some fans who have been perhaps excessively optimistic;, perhaps pushback against over-glamorizing grit; perhaps natural suspicion why the Cubs didn't promote him sooner. But at age 22, I'm thinking an .865-OPS guy with 50+ steals and good defense could be a justifiable value prospect, if he can kinda sustain his production in AA. Hope he can over a longer sample than 3 games! :):)

Cal or others, what do you know about Kevin Valdez and his stuff? He's more than doubled his K/BB ratio this season, and has favorable groundball profile. You mentioned 40-man for him, does that mean he's got legit stuff? I'm recalling 94-96 velocity and a slider, so perfectly reasonable for big-league arm?

Jason, dumb question. How meaningful is this? Or, how much consistency does a guy like Cabrera have from game to game? In other words, is this really a new pitch that might be reproducible? Or does a pitch sometimes change from game to game, here today, back to his previous norm next outing? Would be fun to be a sustainable adjustment that will help for years.

I'm not super motivated for paying super-steep for guys with 2-years of control. Next year, there may be no or little baseball, and the value may be modest. Under the next CBA, if the owners want big changes, service time will be one of their easiest concessions to make. So, like, Detmers, he might seem like some huge long control situation; but you might get nothing out of him next year, and then his free agency may be reduced by a season and you might lose 2028 as well. So I admit I'm kinda inclined towards rentals at the reduced rental price.

Kepley might perhaps become a good starter? If he's hitting 12-15 HR's with >.380 OBP and 50 SB, that plays as starting COF? [Happ is slugging .421, Kepley .420 (plus the 50 steals).] Happ will get older and decline. Replace him sooner or later, whether inside or an outside guy. Inside prospect, whether that be Kepley or Conrad or Hartshorn (or Ramirez or Shaw) will cost less $$ than a big-ticket FA; $$ saved might perhaps be better spent for pitching? Kepley can get traded later, if not now. Value might improve by waiting. (Or not.). Perhaps significantly. Win-win. Having good players is always nice. He's a good prospect now, and may be a good player later. If traded for value, whether now or later, that could be great. If kept, and he becomes a good starter, great. If kept, and he becomes a high-end 4th outfielder, that could be really useful too. Lots of good outcomes possible.

Kepley trade: Good logic in trading now, while he's top-100-ish bubble and has that value level. I wonder if waiting might actually be smart? Holding till later risks that value will decline in upper-minors. But *IF* he hypothetically sustains in AA/AAA, he'd be a big-league-ready piece, which comes with higher trade value. (Same question for most A-ball prospects. Trade them before they're exposed, or hold them in case they aren't, in which case big-league-ready jumps trade value.). I'm a semi-believer? I think Kepley's slug this year has raised his stock. .420 slug and .162 ISO, 7HR in 326AB, those aren't bad. Kepley's only 22; guys sometimes get stronger and slug better at 22 and beyond, and hit better too. And his OBP is so good, even if it drops 30 points next year, a .400-OBP in AA/AAA still looks real-prospect-ish? One puzzle is his BABIP. It isn't high, only .293. Not sure if the .293 is bad luck, or a reflection of hitting quality. Give him a .325 BABIP, that would add an extra ≥20 points to average, slug, OBP, and push OPS >.900. Probably the modest BABIP is not bad luck, but is intrinsic to walk-oriented approach. Lots of 2-strike B-hacks, that's not the path to big BABIP. Don't get to 94 walks in 326 AB without putting yourself into lots of 2-strike counts.

That's logical. To trade a top-100 prospect and get top-100 value in return, that would seem fair. I think it's fun that the Cubs have a good team where we can actually have very good prospects that I can view as surplus and it won't break my heart to trade them. Kepley, Rojas, Shaw, these are good prospects, but if one of them goes, it doesn't crush my future imaginations. But I'm sure not wanting to trade him for some Freddy-Peralta-caliber rental, that's for sure. Better get some real value that is appropriate for a top-100-ish prospect.

Anybody have any scouting on how McCollough is winning?

Yeah, 113 for Cruz, easy to dream. But the K's, that's a long project. Would be cool to somehow see a guy like that magically develop.

Do you guys have any recent observations or updates on what McCullough is throwing? 3K-3BB tonight

Appreciate all these points. I'm old enough to recall a time when draft and development were two separate groups. Syncing those makes so much sense. For Zombro's guys to be analyzing together with Kantro's guys, and together having a shared developmental view for how a guy might project, that makes total sense. I think the "drafted lots of pitchers" thing may read stronger than is actually meaningfully true? Both 2nd-round picks were overslot bats, 35% of draft $$. They spent almost twice as much on Bailey alone as on the last 12 pitchers combined, or all of the pitchers rounds 6-20. 7 pitchers 3 bats >10th round. That's not really very different, 3rd-day was always like that, often even more pitcher-oriented. I kinda think that after the top-3 big-ticket guys, it just makes sense to draft mostly pitchers unless there are HS bats you like that are somehow signable. The developmental potential with <$500K college pitchers is just way better than with college hitters. You can add velocity, develop new pitches, adjust grips and arm slots. College hitters just don't often have the same opportunity to re-make themselves. Look at draft history for big-league relievers and mid/late rotation guys, there are LOTS of pitchers who were not high-round big-ticket draft picks. Way more than useful position guys who were drafted out of college middle/late and signed for <$500K. I hope Ayers blossoms into one of those rare guys, but there just aren't all that many, especially who are better than back-of-roster guys.

Veasey just turned 21 on Saturday. And has pitched very little. Plenty of time to develop into a very different pitcher than he showed during his small-sample 31 college innings.

beck hasn't pitched for a while. Maybe just a healthy rest? Threw some bullpen during the all-star break, all good? I don't even want to say the alternative....

Thanks. Yeah, if there's a $300, it's obviously Hernandez and that would put them right near the overslot cap. Deadline next Monday, but no real reason why these shouldn't all roll in as quickly as the guys can get in for the physicals, execute the formal signings, and have official news releases. With all of the top-10 signed including the underslots, no need for Hernandez to wait on his overslot. Sometimes signing reports are slow; not that newsworthy for a 15th-round college guy to sign for the $150 slot. I agree, it's fun for Kantro save a little bit of discretionary to overslot a couple of ≥11th rounders. I like NOT going extreme subslot on the 7-10th rounds. I'm old enough to remember Happ draft, rounds 6-10 were all <$50K guys, three ≤5K. They quickly confirmed their price tags and confirmed that they were total non-prospects. This draft, Kantro has Alwood pretty low at only $50K, but 7th-9th rounds are all $204-220 deals for pitchers with plausible developmental pathways to big-league relief roles. Not throw-away picks.

So, that wraps up all the picks rounds 1-10. Per Savermetrics, 17th rounder Ryan Marton has also signed, $50K over. He's the huge UNLV guy with a Missou commit, older junior who turn 22 in September, had a high college ERA (>6. ) Savermetrics figures Cubs to have ~$160K discretionary left for >10th-rounders.

Thanks for all the numbers. Tangent, but I love the modern system, with slots, pre-listed price tags, and the fast signing deadline. I'm old enough to remember back to the year they signed Dunston Jr. No cap; no slots; no deadlines. For unsigned guys, both wondering when their individual colleges have first day of class, and if the guy actually went, or delayed going to class to leverage a better bonus offer. (The earlier draft, where guys could play their draft summer, and even pitchers would pitch some innings, I liked that better just to get a look.) But yeah, this no-nonsense, quick completion of the signings, I love it.

Yeah, barring an unanticipated injury they'll sign them all. Price tags are so predetermined, no reason for any surprises. Certainly no surprises likely from the 10-20 picks.

$780K overslot for Bailey, that's the largest superslot. Leaves ~$600K (roundoff) plus whatever sub-slot agreements for discretionary overslots. (Senior Atwood at 10th round will likely be well below slot.). Kinda guessing both Sorrell and Blomker will come in over. Curious what Morton gets.

Morton finally green on the draft tracker. Healthy Morton would have been way higher than 6th-round slot. Curious where he'll land.

The underslots (and 5%) generally need to precede the overs.

On day 1, I wouldn't have been surprised has Jasa been further sub-slot. I kinda like that he wasn't that far below, actually.