craig

Kepley might perhaps become a good starter? If he's hitting 12-15 HR's with >.380 OBP and 50 SB, that plays as starting COF? [Happ is slugging .421, Kepley .420 (plus the 50 steals).] Happ will get older and decline. Replace him sooner or later, whether inside or an outside guy. Inside prospect, whether that be Kepley or Conrad or Hartshorn (or Ramirez or Shaw) will cost less $$ than a big-ticket FA; $$ saved might perhaps be better spent for pitching? Kepley can get traded later, if not now. Value might improve by waiting. (Or not.). Perhaps significantly. Win-win. Having good players is always nice. He's a good prospect now, and may be a good player later. If traded for value, whether now or later, that could be great. If kept, and he becomes a good starter, great. If kept, and he becomes a high-end 4th outfielder, that could be really useful too. Lots of good outcomes possible.

Kepley trade: Good logic in trading now, while he's top-100-ish bubble and has that value level. I wonder if waiting might actually be smart? Holding till later risks that value will decline in upper-minors. But *IF* he hypothetically sustains in AA/AAA, he'd be a big-league-ready piece, which comes with higher trade value. (Same question for most A-ball prospects. Trade them before they're exposed, or hold them in case they aren't, in which case big-league-ready jumps trade value.). I'm a semi-believer? I think Kepley's slug this year has raised his stock. .420 slug and .162 ISO, 7HR in 326AB, those aren't bad. Kepley's only 22; guys sometimes get stronger and slug better at 22 and beyond, and hit better too. And his OBP is so good, even if it drops 30 points next year, a .400-OBP in AA/AAA still looks real-prospect-ish? One puzzle is his BABIP. It isn't high, only .293. Not sure if the .293 is bad luck, or a reflection of hitting quality. Give him a .325 BABIP, that would add an extra ≥20 points to average, slug, OBP, and push OPS >.900. Probably the modest BABIP is not bad luck, but is intrinsic to walk-oriented approach. Lots of 2-strike B-hacks, that's not the path to big BABIP. Don't get to 94 walks in 326 AB without putting yourself into lots of 2-strike counts.

That's logical. To trade a top-100 prospect and get top-100 value in return, that would seem fair. I think it's fun that the Cubs have a good team where we can actually have very good prospects that I can view as surplus and it won't break my heart to trade them. Kepley, Rojas, Shaw, these are good prospects, but if one of them goes, it doesn't crush my future imaginations. But I'm sure not wanting to trade him for some Freddy-Peralta-caliber rental, that's for sure. Better get some real value that is appropriate for a top-100-ish prospect.

Anybody have any scouting on how McCollough is winning?

Yeah, 113 for Cruz, easy to dream. But the K's, that's a long project. Would be cool to somehow see a guy like that magically develop.

Do you guys have any recent observations or updates on what McCullough is throwing? 3K-3BB tonight

Appreciate all these points. I'm old enough to recall a time when draft and development were two separate groups. Syncing those makes so much sense. For Zombro's guys to be analyzing together with Kantro's guys, and together having a shared developmental view for how a guy might project, that makes total sense. I think the "drafted lots of pitchers" thing may read stronger than is actually meaningfully true? Both 2nd-round picks were overslot bats, 35% of draft $$. They spent almost twice as much on Bailey alone as on the last 12 pitchers combined, or all of the pitchers rounds 6-20. 7 pitchers 3 bats >10th round. That's not really very different, 3rd-day was always like that, often even more pitcher-oriented. I kinda think that after the top-3 big-ticket guys, it just makes sense to draft mostly pitchers unless there are HS bats you like that are somehow signable. The developmental potential with <$500K college pitchers is just way better than with college hitters. You can add velocity, develop new pitches, adjust grips and arm slots. College hitters just don't often have the same opportunity to re-make themselves. Look at draft history for big-league relievers and mid/late rotation guys, there are LOTS of pitchers who were not high-round big-ticket draft picks. Way more than useful position guys who were drafted out of college middle/late and signed for <$500K. I hope Ayers blossoms into one of those rare guys, but there just aren't all that many, especially who are better than back-of-roster guys.

Veasey just turned 21 on Saturday. And has pitched very little. Plenty of time to develop into a very different pitcher than he showed during his small-sample 31 college innings.

beck hasn't pitched for a while. Maybe just a healthy rest? Threw some bullpen during the all-star break, all good? I don't even want to say the alternative....

Thanks. Yeah, if there's a $300, it's obviously Hernandez and that would put them right near the overslot cap. Deadline next Monday, but no real reason why these shouldn't all roll in as quickly as the guys can get in for the physicals, execute the formal signings, and have official news releases. With all of the top-10 signed including the underslots, no need for Hernandez to wait on his overslot. Sometimes signing reports are slow; not that newsworthy for a 15th-round college guy to sign for the $150 slot. I agree, it's fun for Kantro save a little bit of discretionary to overslot a couple of ≥11th rounders. I like NOT going extreme subslot on the 7-10th rounds. I'm old enough to remember Happ draft, rounds 6-10 were all <$50K guys, three ≤5K. They quickly confirmed their price tags and confirmed that they were total non-prospects. This draft, Kantro has Alwood pretty low at only $50K, but 7th-9th rounds are all $204-220 deals for pitchers with plausible developmental pathways to big-league relief roles. Not throw-away picks.

So, that wraps up all the picks rounds 1-10. Per Savermetrics, 17th rounder Ryan Marton has also signed, $50K over. He's the huge UNLV guy with a Missou commit, older junior who turn 22 in September, had a high college ERA (>6. ) Savermetrics figures Cubs to have ~$160K discretionary left for >10th-rounders.

Thanks for all the numbers. Tangent, but I love the modern system, with slots, pre-listed price tags, and the fast signing deadline. I'm old enough to remember back to the year they signed Dunston Jr. No cap; no slots; no deadlines. For unsigned guys, both wondering when their individual colleges have first day of class, and if the guy actually went, or delayed going to class to leverage a better bonus offer. (The earlier draft, where guys could play their draft summer, and even pitchers would pitch some innings, I liked that better just to get a look.) But yeah, this no-nonsense, quick completion of the signings, I love it.

Yeah, barring an unanticipated injury they'll sign them all. Price tags are so predetermined, no reason for any surprises. Certainly no surprises likely from the 10-20 picks.

$780K overslot for Bailey, that's the largest superslot. Leaves ~$600K (roundoff) plus whatever sub-slot agreements for discretionary overslots. (Senior Atwood at 10th round will likely be well below slot.). Kinda guessing both Sorrell and Blomker will come in over. Curious what Morton gets.

Morton finally green on the draft tracker. Healthy Morton would have been way higher than 6th-round slot. Curious where he'll land.