Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[tgkimmel]

ESPN insider doesn't say anything, they just collect rumors based on reports of other sites, all stories we've heard.

 

The buzz about a possible deal that would send Matt Garza to the Detroit Tigers appears to have cooled significantly.

 

David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com wrote earlier this week that the Cubs are "down the road" in discussions with the Tigers to send Garza to Detroit for a package of prospects.

 

Theo Epstein, tweets Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, says the clubs is not shopping Garza, and ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, however, cautioned Tuesday that no Garza trade is imminent.

 

Lynn Henning writes in Wednesday's Detroit News that Tigers boss Dave Dombrowski told Cubs counterpart Theo Epstein there was no way he would part with top pitching prospect Jacob Turner in a deal for Garza.

 

The recent trades of Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner demonstrate that Epstein is in a full rebuilding mode in his first season as Cubs president. He wants to land some elite prospects, but it won't come from the Tigers' stash.

 

The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are among the other clubs linked previously to Garza.

 

- Doug Mittler

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=3217

 

Hoyer said Tuesday that the club is younger and deeper than it was when he and Epstein took over, and he’s right. All of the aforementioned moves have allowed the Cubs to go six-deep in their rotation.

 

However, they continue to discuss deals involving right-hander Matt Garza. Hoyer said he isn’t afraid of building a rotation around Garza, but should a team approach the Cubs with a trade tilted in the Cubs’ favor, they would move Garza, too. Indeed, he acknowledged the team has had talks about Garza with the Detroit Tigers. And should the Tigers agree to include both starting pitcher Jacob Turner and third baseman Nick Castellanos -- Detroit's top two prospects -- my feeling is a deal will get done.

 

 

Very insightful stuff from ESPN, hard to believe people actually pay for ESPN Insider.

 

I subscribed for Fantasy Football. . .it has paid for itself.

[Mad Ducks]

ESPN insider doesn't say anything, they just collect rumors based on reports of other sites, all stories we've heard.

 

The buzz about a possible deal that would send Matt Garza to the Detroit Tigers appears to have cooled significantly.

 

David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com wrote earlier this week that the Cubs are "down the road" in discussions with the Tigers to send Garza to Detroit for a package of prospects.

 

Theo Epstein, tweets Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, says the clubs is not shopping Garza, and ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, however, cautioned Tuesday that no Garza trade is imminent.

 

Lynn Henning writes in Wednesday's Detroit News that Tigers boss Dave Dombrowski told Cubs counterpart Theo Epstein there was no way he would part with top pitching prospect Jacob Turner in a deal for Garza.

 

The recent trades of Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner demonstrate that Epstein is in a full rebuilding mode in his first season as Cubs president. He wants to land some elite prospects, but it won't come from the Tigers' stash.

 

The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are among the other clubs linked previously to Garza.

 

- Doug Mittler

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=3217

 

Hoyer said Tuesday that the club is younger and deeper than it was when he and Epstein took over, and he’s right. All of the aforementioned moves have allowed the Cubs to go six-deep in their rotation.

 

However, they continue to discuss deals involving right-hander Matt Garza. Hoyer said he isn’t afraid of building a rotation around Garza, but should a team approach the Cubs with a trade tilted in the Cubs’ favor, they would move Garza, too. Indeed, he acknowledged the team has had talks about Garza with the Detroit Tigers. And should the Tigers agree to include both starting pitcher Jacob Turner and third baseman Nick Castellanos -- Detroit's top two prospects -- my feeling is a deal will get done.

 

 

Very insightful stuff from ESPN, hard to believe people actually pay for ESPN Insider.

 

If you order the magazine through an online vendor (less than 4 bucks for a year) you get insider free.....

[Banedon]

Once Garza is dealt this place is gonna explode. It's like tying a string to your shlong then doing woop woop for an hour then, BOOM! oh yeah baby.

 

Wait what

[NewUserName]

Once Garza is dealt this place is gonna explode. It's like tying a string to your shlong then doing woop woop for an hour then, BOOM! oh yeah baby.

 

Wait what

 

Ain't you nevah dun that?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If you order the magazine through an online vendor (less than 4 bucks for a year) you get insider free.....

Still not worth it.

[Sammy Sofa]

Once Garza is dealt this place is gonna explode. It's like tying a string to your shlong then doing woop woop for an hour then, BOOM! oh yeah baby.

 

Wait what

 

HOW WAS THIS ALL BUT MISSED.

[jersey cubs fan]

Once Garza is dealt this place is gonna explode. It's like tying a string to your shlong then doing woop woop for an hour then, BOOM! oh yeah baby.

 

Wait what

 

HOW WAS THIS ALL BUT MISSED.

 

It was not missed, more like ignored.

[Tracer Bullet]

Let's continue ignoring it.

[javy knows my name]

Let's continue ignoring it.

 

F that, I'm half-tempted to sig it.

[ctcf]

Please don't.

[C.C.]

Just an hour? Amateur.

[RammyFanny]

I know this will probably be a moot point because were focusing on pitching, but I'd still be tempted if we could get someone like montero (or maybe wil myers). I have no clue where montero would play admittedly, would have to be catcher or right field. Bur follow it up with signing cespedes, and in one offseason you could have a core/lineup of bjax, Castro, rizzo, montero, cespedes. Ridiculously young, alot of lefties, great offensive potential. If Castro improves defensively they'd all be good defenders outside of montero.

[tspain]

Question for all: If Detroit refuses to trade Jacob and Nick, their top 2 prospects, and offered the Cubs 3 or 4 players of the Cubs choosing out of the rest of their minor leaguers, would you make a deal with them? And if you answer yes, who would you take whether you would take 3 guys or who would you take if 4 guys? Thanks.

[Clem Fandango]

I wouldn't do it. If neither of those two are coming a package starts with Porcello and Smyly. Nice players, but to paraphrase a Donald Glover joke, that's like the [expletive] of trade proposals.

[CubsWin]

Question for all: If Detroit refuses to trade Jacob and Nick, their top 2 prospects, and offered the Cubs 3 or 4 players of the Cubs choosing out of the rest of their minor leaguers, would you make a deal with them? And if you answer yes, who would you take whether you would take 3 guys or who would you take if 4 guys? Thanks.

No.

 

The only way I'm agreeing to trade Garza is if you get a solid TOR pitching prospect like Turner and at least one other B/B- pitching prospect coming back. They can keep Castellanos. I like him, but I'd do the deal without him.

[davell]

A package of Porcello/Smyly/Crosby/Paulino would probably provide us a return worth trading 2 years of Garza for. Personally, I think Porcello still has upside, but he'd only be under control for 3 years and he's not going to be the "meat" of the deal. I like Smyly a lot. Can he become more than a 4/5 guy? I think he could be a Ted Lilly type, of coursse, we already have Travis Wood, so counting on 2 lefties who are fairly similar probably isn't a great idea. The key would be the other 2 parts. Crosby has as much upside as Turner. Hard throwing lefties aren't that easy to find. Unfortunately, injury prone pitchers ARE easy to find. But, if you want to gamble, this is a guy that was a top 50 prospect in 2009, missed 2010 and last year was his first back and he did allright. Just didn't set the world on fire. It's much more likely he winds up as a pen arm, but he certainly has the ability to be a 1/2 guy. If, which is a huge if, he can hold up. Paulino is the highest ceiling arm they have in the lower levels. Last year, he was dominant in Rookie League, but lost his command once he was bumped up. Electric, upper 90's. Lottery ticket type that a team probably doesn't want to give up on yet, because he could really come back and haunt them. Or, he may never make it out of High A Ball. At any rate, the VALUE is there to make this deal. I wouldn't though, I want an upper level guy with TOR ability that doesn't have the question marks of Crosby. Basically, I want a guy just like Turner.

[Rob]

Actually, Porcello has 2 years and 170 days of service time. (172 days is a year)

 

He's got 4 more seasons of club control.

[Tryptamine]

Without Turner or Castellanos I don't see how a deal could get done. After the first five or so prospects the Tiger's system drops off a cliff. Crosby and Smyly are good second pieces but they aren't headliners.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Question for all: If Detroit refuses to trade Jacob and Nick, their top 2 prospects, and offered the Cubs 3 or 4 players of the Cubs choosing out of the rest of their minor leaguers, would you make a deal with them? And if you answer yes, who would you take whether you would take 3 guys or who would you take if 4 guys? Thanks.

 

There must be something in their system to make that worthwhile. Make it 4 guys and start with Crosby and Smyly. Maybe Porcello's in the mix, maybe not. I'm sure if any FO team could dig into any system and find the right package it's ours. Would be nice to get at least one bat out of it.

[rawaction]

If the Cubs couldn't afford to re-sign Garza, I'd take a deal without the Tigers top 2 involved. But if you don't get Turner or Castellanos, then you'd just keep Garza. Have to get at least 1 elite prospect out of the deal or you are doing the deal just for the sake of doing it.

[Backtobanks]

If the Cubs couldn't afford to re-sign Garza, I'd take a deal without the Tigers top 2 involved. But if you don't get Turner or Castellanos, then you'd just keep Garza. Have to get at least 1 elite prospect out of the deal or you are doing the deal just for the sake of doing it.

 

Garza will be young enough and good enough in 2-3 years to be a TOR starter for the Cubs, so it doesn't make sense to trade him for anything less than an elite prospect (or two). We've got enough middle-of-the-rotation/back-of-the-rotation/question marks.

[craig]

A package of Porcello/Smyly/Crosby/Paulino would probably provide us a return worth trading 2 years of Garza for. ....

 

Most of the thread has focused on trade possibilities that we'd like or dislike.

 

My thinking is that Theo wants more than 2 years of control, whether that be with prospects or with a Garza extension. So I totally assume that they have worked hard for an extension, and have either been rebuffed or perhaps continue to work towards a resolution. It may be that trade talk has subdued because Hoyer is getting closer to an extension that he can live with.

 

What do you guys think would be an over-under on an extension deal? Anything less is a good deal, but this is as far as I'd go, and anything over is worse than no deal at all?

 

$60/5? $65/5? $75/6? $56/4?

 

I think there are 5 basic outcomes possible:

1. A good trade for really good value.

2. A good extension for good value.

3. No trade, no extension, nothing at all.

4. A bad trade for poor value

5. A bad-value, bad-risk extension

 

My preferences are 1 > 2 > 3. Clearly to date Hoyer has felt that options 1 and 2 haven't been available, so he's been choosing 3 over 4 +5.

Edited January 13, 2012 by craig

[Little Slide Rooter]

If the Cubs couldn't afford to re-sign Garza, I'd take a deal without the Tigers top 2 involved. But if you don't get Turner or Castellanos, then you'd just keep Garza. Have to get at least 1 elite prospect out of the deal or you are doing the deal just for the sake of doing it.

 

I understand that there's no urgency to move Garza, and have seen the WAR numbers showing how valuable he is. However, if they really want to move him to stock the farm system, at some point we have to step away from the demand for an ace caliber return, which asking a team for their 2 top prospects and then some is. I'd be happy to keep Garza, but if any organization were to offer up the keys to their farm system and say we could have any 4 guys aside from their top 2, it would be hard to turn down unless we're talking a bottom 5 system. Even then you'd want to at least explore what they have in depth. We could always take 2 guys and 2 PTBNL if there's someone they drafted this past year that we might want.

[jersey cubs fan]

If the Cubs couldn't afford to re-sign Garza, I'd take a deal without the Tigers top 2 involved. But if you don't get Turner or Castellanos, then you'd just keep Garza. Have to get at least 1 elite prospect out of the deal or you are doing the deal just for the sake of doing it.

 

I don't think there's any question whether they can afford to resign him, I think they might just not want to resign him. My guess is management might not view him as the elite pitcher he will no doubt be paid to be.

[JeffH]

What do you guys think would be an over-under on an extension deal? Anything less is a good deal, but this is as far as I'd go, and anything over is worse than no deal at all?

 

$60/5? $65/5? $75/6? $56/4?

 

I doubt Garza would sign this, but I'd like to see a five year extension with two vesting option years potentially taking him through his age 34 season.

 

2012 - $9

2013 - $12

2014 - $14

2015 - $14

2016 - $14

2017 - $14 vesting option based on IP combined in 2015 and 2016

2018 - $14 vesting option based on IP combined in 2016 and 2017

 

Full no-trade clause through 2014. Limited no-trade protection for 2015 and 2016. No no-trade protection for 2017 and 2018.

 

That's $63/5 guaranteed. Potentially $91/7.