Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[soonercub]

I read where the Yankees are focusing on pitching. I bet Cashman would love to get his hands on Garza. What do you think would be a good return?

 

I like:

1. Jesus Montero (maybe future 1st baseman) #1 in Yankee system

2. Manny Banuelos LHP#3 in Yankee system

3. Adam Warren or Graham Stoneburner or David Phelps all RHP and just out of Yankee top 10.

 

Does that return seems to be better than Archer, Lee, Guyer? and seem reasonable?

 

Any other good trade candidates?

[Sammy Sofa]

Keeping Garza.

[BeerHere]

Hak Ju Lee, Chris Archer, the Rays #1 prospect and Maddon

[jersey cubs fan]

ARod 7 years ago

[davell]

I want to keep Garza, but if I get a return of Montero and Banuelos, I'm seriously considering it.

[soonercub]

I would like to keep Garza if Theo thinks he can get the Cubs competitive enough this year to make a run at the division. If he thinks that he that can't make those kind of changes and hope to be competitive in 2013 then dealing Garza might be an option if you think you can obtain high level prospects that are close to MLB ready.

[WrigleyField 22]

Probably nothing we could get. We need pitching. He isnt that expensive yet and he's young enough to grow with the team. We'd have to get at least one top notcj pitching prospect that could start this year as well as a couple other prospects.

[davell]

In a perfect world, we give Garza a 4 year extension this offseason and find a way to trade for a young frontline pitcher as well. We may not have the ability to do it though. But I'm hopeful at least.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We've used up a year of the value he had when we traded for him. We're not getting near as much for him as we gave up a year ago.

 

I'd probably rather just keep him at this point.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Colby Rasmus, Kyle Drabek, and a high ceiling prospect or 2. We'll kick em something like Tyler Colvin or Darwin Barney if they like.

[soonercub]

Garza has had a lot of success in the AL East, could Theo get Boston, NY and Toronto to bid against each other?

 

What does Boston have that might be beneficial to us long term or did they blow their load to get AGon?

[Outshined_One]

Keeping Garza.

 

Admittedly, I now have to agree with this. I used to think now would be the perfect time to trade Garza, but frankly, his 2011 was a heck of a lot better than I originally thought.

 

At this point, if I had to trade Garza, I'd want a package built around a proven young major leaguer with an elite upside and cheap team control remaining (i.e. Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Mike Stanton) or a Top 10 prospect (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, maybe Jesus Montero), along with at least one Top 50 prospect and a high upside prospect or two.

 

In other words, I don't think any teams would be willing to give up what I'd want for Garza.

[Tracer Bullet]

Garza has had a lot of success in the AL East, could Theo get Boston, NY and Toronto to bid against each other?

 

What does Boston have that might be beneficial to us long term or did they blow their load to get AGon?

Are we in any position to trade our best SP?

[Outshined_One]

Garza has had a lot of success in the AL East, could Theo get Boston, NY and Toronto to bid against each other?

 

What does Boston have that might be beneficial to us long term or did they blow their load to get AGon?

 

Their farm system is depleted and I don't think Boston would be willing to part with Ellsbury or Gonzalez. They don't have much.

 

The Blue Jays are intriguing, on the other hand. I do loves me some Brett Lawrie.

[buckeye27]

cubs would be pretty nuts to deal garza. right now, pitching is a premium. the FA pitchers available are bad. CJ wilson, don't get me wrong, is servicable, but he's no ace. and he'll get ace money because he is IT this year. hitters are a dime a dozen.

[sneakypower]

Keeping Garza.

yup

[Guest]

You only trade garza if you want to give up on 2012. I don't want to give up. Therefore, I don't trade garza

[MSG T]

cubs would be pretty nuts to deal garza. right now, pitching is a premium. the FA pitchers available are bad. CJ wilson, don't get me wrong, is servicable, but he's no ace. and he'll get ace money because he is IT this year. hitters are a dime a dozen.

 

 

I'm not sure I'd label a guy that is 9th in WAR over the last two years as merely "serviceable" or as "he's no ace". Particularly when he's ahead of quite a few people that would be labeled as aces.

[buckeye27]

cubs would be pretty nuts to deal garza. right now, pitching is a premium. the FA pitchers available are bad. CJ wilson, don't get me wrong, is servicable, but he's no ace. and he'll get ace money because he is IT this year. hitters are a dime a dozen.

 

 

I'm not sure I'd label a guy that is 9th in WAR over the last two years as merely "serviceable" or as "he's no ace". Particularly when he's ahead of quite a few people that would be labeled as aces.

 

i think it matters what you do when it comes down to it. wilson had been, up until 2 years ago, a RP. i think his post season has lowered his price and value a bit. just think how many guys come out of the gates and after say, 125-140+ innings are amazing. wilson certainly can pitch, but can he do it for 225+ innings each year is the question, and how effective will he be in the 175-250 inning range if it comes down to it.

 

when i think of ace material, thats halladay, wainwright, verlander, sabathia, lee, hernandez, kershaw etc. i will be 100% honest, and obviously this is just from a fans standpoint, but when we faced wilson in the WS, i wasn't sitting there like "oh no, we're introuble, we're facing cj wilson...". he doesnt really strike fear into you like the top of the line guys do.

 

as for servicable, thats a bit low balling him. he's certainly a darn good pitcher, but i wouldnt call him one of the 10 or 15 best starters in baseball.

[buckeye27]

as for garza, you have a guy who has proven he can pitch well in the post season, has always had a sub 4 era (even with 3 years in TB facing those AL east lineups). i just cant really see you guys trading him for anything thats truely going to benefit the club more so than keeping him.

 

garza is easily a top of the rotation guy with a proven track record.

[davell]

Hard to quantify exactly what an ace is. Are there 30 guys who technically qualify as one? Do we use WAR to figure this out? Is it an eyeball test? In the end, I figure Garza is an excellent 2, or possibly a slightly below average 1, maybe average. But, as a major market team, who should fashion themselves as true contenders moving forward, we should expect to have Garza, and both a guy slightly better and a guy slightly worse for our top 3. That's my hope at least. 4 and 5 can be guys coming up from our system and the hope is at least one of them also develops into a frontline guy as well.

[shnsajax]

Alex Gordon and Jake Odorizzi

[dew1679666265]

i think it matters what you do when it comes down to it. wilson had been, up until 2 years ago, a RP. i think his post season has lowered his price and value a bit. just think how many guys come out of the gates and after say, 125-140+ innings are amazing. wilson certainly can pitch, but can he do it for 225+ innings each year is the question, and how effective will he be in the 175-250 inning range if it comes down to it.

 

He's not topped 225 innings yet, but he pitched 223 last year and in the 175-223 range he posted monthly ERAs of 2.87 and 1.21 and a K:BB ratio of 69:21. In 2010, he struggled a bit in his 175-250 range: 5.85 ERA and 30:16 K:BB.

 

For comparison, Halladay posted ERAs of 2.62 and 1.70 with a K:BB ratio of 68:16 in the same range. Sabathia had ERAs of 4.68 and 3.08 with a K:BB ratio of 74:16. Verlander was at 3.12 and 2.55 and a K:BB ratio of 72:21. All have better K:BB ratios in that period, but Wilson's ERA (not a good measure, but nothing is when you look at a 60 inning range) is comparable to them all and better than some.

 

My focus on determining an "ace" of a staff is how well the pitcher does over the course of the season, not just in a select 60-inning range. Wilson was the 9th best pitcher according to WAR and has less mileage on his arm than almost anybody around him on that list. He's always been a good pitcher even as a reliever, but it's become pretty clear he's an elite arm as a starter.

 

when i think of ace material, thats halladay, wainwright, verlander, sabathia, lee, hernandez, kershaw etc. i will be 100% honest, and obviously this is just from a fans standpoint, but when we faced wilson in the WS, i wasn't sitting there like "oh no, we're introuble, we're facing cj wilson...". he doesnt really strike fear into you like the top of the line guys do.

 

as for servicable, thats a bit low balling him. he's certainly a darn good pitcher, but i wouldnt call him one of the 10 or 15 best starters in baseball.

 

Then you're selling him pretty short. Where would you have him on your list of best pitchers?

[sneakypower]

Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Moreland totaled +34 runs per UZR last season

Ramirez, Castro, Barney, Pena totaled -12 runs, and we can't reasonably expect to be much better than average in IF defense next year unless Castro makes massive strides

 

much of what makes CJ Wilson so attractive is his terrific GB rate, which wouldn't benefit him nearly as much here as it did in Texas; he'd certainly underperform his FIP by noticeable amounts

 

signing Wilson at the price he's going to demand doesn't make much sense for us, and even much, much more so especially in conjunction with a Fielder or Ramirez signing

[illiniguy]

Alex Gordon and Jake Odorizzi

Hosmer, go big.