We're No Longer Witnessing a Normal Slow Start for Alex Bregman

One could forgive Alex Bregman for getting off to a slow start in the first month of the 2026 season. That's kind of what his career norms said he should do. Unfortunately for Bregman and the Chicago Cubs, the trends that are typical of Bregman's career on a month-to-month basis haven't been so consistent in May. 

A slow start is characteristic of Bregman in certain respects. While many of the approach trends that are so foundational to his game are always present, the outcomes take a little bit longer to show up. That's not unique to Bregman, mind you. Plenty of players throughout the game's history have been notorious for slow starts. Sammy Sosa shook the habit once he emerged as a superstar, but in each of his first five full Aprils as a Cub, he had an OPS of .702 or lower.

The following is Bregman's month-to-month distribution for his career, from 2017 to 2025: 

• March/April: .261/.363/.414, 15.1 K%, 12.6 BB%, .153 ISO, 119 wRC+
• May: .258/.345/.476, 13.9 K%, 10.9 BB%, .218 ISO, 125 wRC+
• June: .268/.364/.476, 13.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, .209 ISO, 133 wRC+
• July: .260/.352/.484, 13.0 K%, 11.5 BB%, .224 ISO, 130 wRC+
• August: .323/.407/.556, 13.1 K%, 11.3 BB%, .233 ISO, 165 wRC+
• September: .255/.352/.466, 12.2 K%, 12.0 BB%, .210 ISO, 124 wRC+

Bregman's a steady ballplayer. The line and each of the strikeout and walk rates remain consistent over the course of the year, based on his career averages. The most notable aspect of his month-to-month trends, though, lies in the power. Historically, his pop has heated up with the weather, peaking by the time the calendar reaches August. He doesn't hit even for doubles power very well in April. After that, he becomes a consistently dangerous slugger.

That makes the funk in which Bregman is still mired worrisome. By this point in the calendar—regardless of what the line or the strikeout-to-walk ratio may look like—Bregman has typically seen a massive jump in both his hard contact rate and his isolated power. The 2020 season notwithstanding, there have been just two seasons wherein Bregman remained similar between the two months in his Hard-Hit%, and only one season where it actually dropped from April to May (2023). Otherwise, he's been good for, at minimum, a four-percentage point bump in hard-hit rate from the first month to the second. It's usually more like double that.

Hard-hit rate is obviously important, because you can't hit for power without hitting the ball hard. A 65-point ISO jump between April and May reflects the way more hard contact has almost always led to more impact from one month to the next. That's not what the Cubs are getting at the front end of this five-year deal, though.

Here is Bregman's distribution through the first two months of 2026: 

• March/April: .258/.350/.371, 14.7 K%, 11.9 BB%, .113 ISO, 109 wRC+
• May: .238/.319/.310, 20.2 K%, 8.5 BB%, .071 ISO, 83 wRC+

The concern isn't solely that Bregman is struggling in May. Virtually every hitter on the Cubs has spent the last three weeks reeling. In Bregman's case, though, he's bucking career trends, and his age is evidence against him in the trial accusing him of being permanently diminished. Should he finish out the month in the same fashion, he'd be in line for his worst May ever by strikeout rate, ISO, and wRC+. It'd be the second-worst batting average and third-worst on-base percentage in any May of his career. To top it off, his hard-hit rate dropped from 45.2% last month to 40.0% in May. The impact that usually begins to present itself in the second month of the season isn't here.

Ordinarily, we wouldn't let numbers like these worry us too much, this soon. A combination of factors have made it feel much worse, though, from the fact that Bregman is just beginning a long-term deal at the doorstep of his mid-30s to the fact that everyone else is also sputtering (and thus, that the team is losing). Bregman enduring this kind of month is not supposed to happen, especially when the team needs him most.