Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[Guest]

Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Moreland totaled +34 runs per UZR last season

Ramirez, Castro, Barney, Pena totaled -12 runs, and we can't reasonably expect to be much better than average in IF defense next year unless Castro makes massive strides

 

To be fair, simply going from 2011 Ramirez/Castro to something like 2012 Stewart/Castro is probably a 15 run improvement.

[dew1679666265]

Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Moreland totaled +34 runs per UZR last season

Ramirez, Castro, Barney, Pena totaled -12 runs, and we can't reasonably expect to be much better than average in IF defense next year unless Castro makes massive strides

 

much of what makes CJ Wilson so attractive is his terrific GB rate, which wouldn't benefit him nearly as much here as it did in Texas; he'd certainly underperform his FIP by noticeable amounts

 

signing Wilson at the price he's going to demand doesn't make much sense for us, and even much, much more so especially in conjunction with a Fielder or Ramirez signing

 

That's kind of like the argument not to sign Pujols/Fielder because we won't be favorites to win the World Series next season. Both of those players will be on the team for the next 8-10 years, so next year isn't the only year that matters.

 

It's the same for Wilson - the infield defense won't be where it needs to be next year, but we'd probably sign Wilson to a 4-5 year deal and probably sooner than later in that deal the IF defense will be much improved.

[buckeye27]

i think it matters what you do when it comes down to it. wilson had been, up until 2 years ago, a RP. i think his post season has lowered his price and value a bit. just think how many guys come out of the gates and after say, 125-140+ innings are amazing. wilson certainly can pitch, but can he do it for 225+ innings each year is the question, and how effective will he be in the 175-250 inning range if it comes down to it.

 

He's not topped 225 innings yet, but he pitched 223 last year and in the 175-223 range he posted monthly ERAs of 2.87 and 1.21 and a K:BB ratio of 69:21. In 2010, he struggled a bit in his 175-250 range: 5.85 ERA and 30:16 K:BB.

 

For comparison, Halladay posted ERAs of 2.62 and 1.70 with a K:BB ratio of 68:16 in the same range. Sabathia had ERAs of 4.68 and 3.08 with a K:BB ratio of 74:16. Verlander was at 3.12 and 2.55 and a K:BB ratio of 72:21. All have better K:BB ratios in that period, but Wilson's ERA (not a good measure, but nothing is when you look at a 60 inning range) is comparable to them all and better than some.

 

My focus on determining an "ace" of a staff is how well the pitcher does over the course of the season, not just in a select 60-inning range. Wilson was the 9th best pitcher according to WAR and has less mileage on his arm than almost anybody around him on that list. He's always been a good pitcher even as a reliever, but it's become pretty clear he's an elite arm as a starter.

 

when i think of ace material, thats halladay, wainwright, verlander, sabathia, lee, hernandez, kershaw etc. i will be 100% honest, and obviously this is just from a fans standpoint, but when we faced wilson in the WS, i wasn't sitting there like "oh no, we're introuble, we're facing cj wilson...". he doesnt really strike fear into you like the top of the line guys do.

 

as for servicable, thats a bit low balling him. he's certainly a darn good pitcher, but i wouldnt call him one of the 10 or 15 best starters in baseball.

 

Then you're selling him pretty short. Where would you have him on your list of best pitchers?

 

well, let me ask you this. from an unbiased standpoint, our teams are in the playoffs. we have the choice of starting garza or wilson. who do you go to? i'd go garza.

 

as for my best starting pitchers, thats a darn good question. you'd have to have verlander, kershaw, halladay, wainwright, felix, lee, sabathia on there. i'd think that cain and lincecum would have to be on there somewhere. probably jared weaver. he probably does fall in the 15-20 range. wilson that is. its very possible he may turn out some more great seasons. i think its tough to have an arm adjust from bullpen to the longevity of an actual season and starting pitching.

 

from watching him pitch in the WS, it seemed that his confidence wasnt where you'd want it from an ace. he seemed to have control issues. obviously its only a small sampling, but it is on the biggest stage. if we had the option to add him, by all means i'd do it, but i think my issue is more of what he's going to cost in a year where theres no SP out there to sign, vs. a year when he's say, the 3rd best starter.

[Tracer Bullet]

Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Moreland totaled +34 runs per UZR last season

Ramirez, Castro, Barney, Pena totaled -12 runs, and we can't reasonably expect to be much better than average in IF defense next year unless Castro makes massive strides

 

To be fair, simply going from 2011 Ramirez/Castro to something like 2012 Stewart/Castro is probably a 15 run improvement.

 

But Stewart is really good, right? What's ARam to average defensive 3b + hopeful improvement from Castro? 8-10 runs?

 

ETA this is probably pointless. We don't know who 3/4 of our infielders will be.

[Outshined_One]

Alex Gordon and Jake Odorizzi

Hosmer, go big.

 

Hosmer, Odorizzi, John Lamb, and a roll of the dice with Jorge Bonifacio

 

Sold!

[Guest]

Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Moreland totaled +34 runs per UZR last season

Ramirez, Castro, Barney, Pena totaled -12 runs, and we can't reasonably expect to be much better than average in IF defense next year unless Castro makes massive strides

 

To be fair, simply going from 2011 Ramirez/Castro to something like 2012 Stewart/Castro is probably a 15 run improvement.

 

But Stewart is really good, right? What's ARam to average defensive 3b + hopeful improvement from Castro? 8-10 runs?

 

ETA this is probably pointless. We don't know who 3/4 of our infielders will be.

 

Stewart isn't really a defensive stud, the math was -10 Ramirez to + 2 Stewart, with Castro improving from -9 to -6.

[Tracer Bullet]

I thought Stewart was dragged down by playing OF and 2b and was much better at 3b. Maybe I'm making that up.

[Guest]

I thought Stewart was dragged down by playing OF and 2b and was much better at 3b. Maybe I'm making that up.

 

He's +4 in 288 games worth of time at 3B, and well below average in the other positions he's played.

[dew1679666265]

well, let me ask you this. from an unbiased standpoint, our teams are in the playoffs. we have the choice of starting garza or wilson. who do you go to? i'd go garza.

 

Probably Wilson as I see him as a bit better, but I'd have no problem with either. It's not a useful question, though, because you don't give out elite starter money just because you think a guy is going to pitch great in one game in a hypothetical playoff game. You give out elite starter money because you believe a guy can pitch at an extremely high level over the course of an entire 162 game season and Wilson has done that twice.

 

as for my best starting pitchers, thats a darn good question. you'd have to have verlander, kershaw, halladay, wainwright, felix, lee, sabathia on there. i'd think that cain and lincecum would have to be on there somewhere. probably jared weaver. he probably does fall in the 15-20 range. wilson that is. its very possible he may turn out some more great seasons. i think its tough to have an arm adjust from bullpen to the longevity of an actual season and starting pitching.

 

He's not had any problems through two seasons. A 5.2 average WAR his only two years starting and showing improvements in K/9, BB/9 and K/BB from year one to year two. That's not a pitcher who I'm afraid is going to break down shortly, especially since he's only logged around 700 ML innings on his arm to this point.

 

from watching him pitch in the WS, it seemed that his confidence wasnt where you'd want it from an ace. he seemed to have control issues. obviously its only a small sampling, but it is on the biggest stage. if we had the option to add him, by all means i'd do it, but i think my issue is more of what he's going to cost in a year where theres no SP out there to sign, vs. a year when he's say, the 3rd best starter.

 

He's going to cost a ton, but if he can keep up his 5.2 WAR average going forward, he'll be well worth the cost. My guess is probably in the 5/85-95 range, which would be an AAV of around $17-19 million. Teams pursuing Wilson will be aided by the presence of Darvish on the market, the rumors that the Red Sox won't be interested, and the possibility that the Yankees chose to go lower tier to find their starter (Buehrle? Oswalt? Jackson?) since they just gave CC a hefty raise.

[buckeye27]

well, let me ask you this. from an unbiased standpoint, our teams are in the playoffs. we have the choice of starting garza or wilson. who do you go to? i'd go garza.

 

Probably Wilson as I see him as a bit better, but I'd have no problem with either. It's not a useful question, though, because you don't give out elite starter money just because you think a guy is going to pitch great in one game in a hypothetical playoff game. You give out elite starter money because you believe a guy can pitch at an extremely high level over the course of an entire 162 game season and Wilson has done that twice.

 

as for my best starting pitchers, thats a darn good question. you'd have to have verlander, kershaw, halladay, wainwright, felix, lee, sabathia on there. i'd think that cain and lincecum would have to be on there somewhere. probably jared weaver. he probably does fall in the 15-20 range. wilson that is. its very possible he may turn out some more great seasons. i think its tough to have an arm adjust from bullpen to the longevity of an actual season and starting pitching.

 

He's not had any problems through two seasons. A 5.2 average WAR his only two years starting and showing improvements in K/9, BB/9 and K/BB from year one to year two. That's not a pitcher who I'm afraid is going to break down shortly, especially since he's only logged around 700 ML innings on his arm to this point.

 

from watching him pitch in the WS, it seemed that his confidence wasnt where you'd want it from an ace. he seemed to have control issues. obviously its only a small sampling, but it is on the biggest stage. if we had the option to add him, by all means i'd do it, but i think my issue is more of what he's going to cost in a year where theres no SP out there to sign, vs. a year when he's say, the 3rd best starter.

 

He's going to cost a ton, but if he can keep up his 5.2 WAR average going forward, he'll be well worth the cost. My guess is probably in the 5/85-95 range, which would be an AAV of around $17-19 million. Teams pursuing Wilson will be aided by the presence of Darvish on the market, the rumors that the Red Sox won't be interested, and the possibility that the Yankees chose to go lower tier to find their starter (Buehrle? Oswalt? Jackson?) since they just gave CC a hefty raise.

 

this obviously isnt an end all. but coming from a texas fan, if you read the bottom of this article, you'll see this guys opinion of wilson.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/rangers-not-over-series-loss-to-cards/article_3eeba6f9-182e-5b48-a314-1c7fd6ab8904.html

 

this is from a texas writer. and obviously, its only an opinion.

[SouthSideRyan]

But the Rangers have their own opinion of Wilson's worth. Right or wrong, it's nowhere near $80 million. Maybe that could change, but I doubt it.

 

While this would be great news, I fear Jon Daniels doesn't share this meathead's opinion.

 

FFS, Wilson has a 2.95 ERA over 18.1 World Series innings.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Toronto checked on Garza's availability... Crazy 3 team trade idea?

 

TOR Gets: Garza

OAK Gets: Soto, McNutt, Vitters

CHI Gets: Cahil, Lowrie, Arencibia

[Cubswin11]

Toronto checked on Garza's availability... Crazy 3 team trade idea?

 

TOR Gets: Garza

OAK Gets: Soto, McNutt, Vitters

CHI Gets: Cahil, Lowrie, Arencibia

There is no way Toronto trades Lowrie. He's a [expletive] national hero up there already.

[dew1679666265]

this obviously isnt an end all. but coming from a texas fan, if you read the bottom of this article, you'll see this guys opinion of wilson.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/rangers-not-over-series-loss-to-cards/article_3eeba6f9-182e-5b48-a314-1c7fd6ab8904.html

 

this is from a texas writer. and obviously, its only an opinion.

 

I really hope that writer is correct and Texas isn't willing to pay Wilson. I'd be all over a 5/80 deal for him regardless of his postseason numbers last season. I just can't find the logic in disregarding 400+ innings of stellar pitching because a guy struggled in a handful of postseason games. Especially when he pitched fine in the 2010 postseason.

 

That's the line of thinking that helped dismantle the 2008 Cubs. They won 97 regular season games, flopped against a string of right handers in the postseason, and Hendry felt the need to bring in lefties at all cost - meaning too much playing time for guys like Aaron Miles and Joey Gathright. You should never overreact to a small number of games in baseball, too many variables involved.

[Guest]

this obviously isnt an end all. but coming from a texas fan, if you read the bottom of this article, you'll see this guys opinion of wilson.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/rangers-not-over-series-loss-to-cards/article_3eeba6f9-182e-5b48-a314-1c7fd6ab8904.html

 

this is from a texas writer. and obviously, its only an opinion.

 

I really hope that writer is correct and Texas isn't willing to pay Wilson. I'd be all over a 5/80 deal for him regardless of his postseason numbers last season. I just can't find the logic in disregarding 400+ innings of stellar pitching because a guy struggled in a handful of postseason games. Especially when he pitched fine in the 2010 postseason.

 

That's the line of thinking that helped dismantle the 2008 Cubs. They won 97 regular season games, flopped against a string of right handers in the postseason, and Hendry felt the need to bring in lefties at all cost - meaning too much playing time for guys like Aaron Miles and Joey Gathright. You should never overreact to a small number of games in baseball, too many variables involved.

I'm trying not to hope too much about Wilson, Pujols or Fielder. Getting any one of them would be outstanding. Two and I think we're division-level contenders in 2012.

[dew1679666265]

I'm trying not to hope too much about Wilson, Pujols or Fielder. Getting any one of them would be outstanding. Two and I think we're division-level contenders in 2012.

 

Yeah, it just makes too much sense not to net Pujols/Prince this offseason. I'm viewing Wilson as icing on the cake, so to speak, but can't help but get hopeful about the first basemen.

[Guest]

I'm trying not to hope too much about Wilson, Pujols or Fielder. Getting any one of them would be outstanding. Two and I think we're division-level contenders in 2012.

 

Yeah, it just makes too much sense not to net Pujols/Prince this offseason. I'm viewing Wilson as icing on the cake, so to speak, but can't help but get hopeful about the first basemen.

Wilson makes at least as much sense as one of those guys does. The rotation was our big downfall last year.

[dew1679666265]

Wilson makes at least as much sense as one of those guys does. The rotation was our big downfall last year.

 

The lack of first base talent makes Pujols/Prince more important and logical, I think. We don't have anybody anywhere close to the majors who's the talent level of Wilson, but we do have guys who can be decent to very good starters making their way to the majors in the next few years.

 

At first we have Bryan LaHair and Rebel Ridling. Other than Vogelbach, we don't have any major league talent at first in the organization. That's the biggest reason I put Pujols/Prince ahead of Wilson.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Wilson makes at least as much sense as one of those guys does. The rotation was our big downfall last year.

 

The lack of first base talent makes Pujols/Prince more important and logical, I think. We don't have anybody anywhere close to the majors who's the talent level of Wilson, but we do have guys who can be decent to very good starters making their way to the majors in the next few years.

 

At first we have Bryan LaHair and Rebel Ridling. Other than Vogelbach, we don't have any major league talent at first in the organization. That's the biggest reason I put Pujols/Prince ahead of Wilson.

 

This and the fact that Prince and Fielder are 2 of the very best in that position and can be viewed as a cornerstone for the next several years. Guys like them won't be hitting free agency again anytime soon and likely won't be available through trade. As for front end pitchers, we could potentially land one through trade, and if not, there are some great ones potentially available next offseason.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Wilson makes at least as much sense as one of those guys does. The rotation was our big downfall last year.

 

The lack of first base talent makes Pujols/Prince more important and logical, I think. We don't have anybody anywhere close to the majors who's the talent level of Wilson, but we do have guys who can be decent to very good starters making their way to the majors in the next few years.

 

At first we have Bryan LaHair and Rebel Ridling. Other than Vogelbach, we don't have any major league talent at first in the organization. That's the biggest reason I put Pujols/Prince ahead of Wilson.

 

The odds that we fill five rotation spots internally for the next few years are very, very slim. Even assuming we can sign Garza long-term. We're going to be needing pitching every bit as much as a 1b.

[dew1679666265]

The odds that we fill five rotation spots internally for the next few years are very, very slim. Even assuming we can sign Garza long-term. We're going to be needing pitching every bit as much as a 1b.

 

It's much more likely that we fill the other four rotation slots internally than that we fill first base internally. There are also far better "second choices" available in the rotation than at first base this offseason. Both are important to sign, but if Theo/Hoyer is comfortable only filling one of the two needs with a marquee signing, then I think first base should be the focus.

[davearm2]

this obviously isnt an end all. but coming from a texas fan, if you read the bottom of this article, you'll see this guys opinion of wilson.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/rangers-not-over-series-loss-to-cards/article_3eeba6f9-182e-5b48-a314-1c7fd6ab8904.html

 

this is from a texas writer. and obviously, its only an opinion.

 

I really hope that writer is correct and Texas isn't willing to pay Wilson. I'd be all over a 5/80 deal for him regardless of his postseason numbers last season. I just can't find the logic in disregarding 400+ innings of stellar pitching because a guy struggled in a handful of postseason games. Especially when he pitched fine in the 2010 postseason.

 

That's the line of thinking that helped dismantle the 2008 Cubs. They won 97 regular season games, flopped against a string of right handers in the postseason, and Hendry felt the need to bring in lefties at all cost - meaning too much playing time for guys like Aaron Miles and Joey Gathright. You should never overreact to a small number of games in baseball, too many variables involved.

LOL Hendry's "overreaction" was to sign the guy that led the AL in OPS the previous year.

 

The "dismantling" he did was to trade DeRosa at the perfect time.

 

Minus DeRosa, the same guys that made the 2008 offense so good were back.

[toonsterwu]

A boatload. Yankees are one of the few teams that have the chips that could convince me to move him. Not many other teams do. Garza's value is equal, if not better, than last year's as he's coming off a statistically strong season (whereas, there were some question marks last year, but there was one extra cost-controlled year to balance things out). That said, this is such a bad pitching market. I'd want at least 1 elite chip, 1 plus chip, and at least 2 more solid assets to go with it. From the Yankees, I'd start by asking for Montero/Betances/Banuelos, and leave some leeway to get only one of Banuelos/Betances depending on who else was in the deal (not that I see Cashman even remotely considering that, I think he'd deal Montero in a heartbeat for the right pitcher, but not both of his prized arms). From the Royals, I'd start all discussions with Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas and work from there (not that I actually see the Royals pondering anything like that). I'd ask for Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, Mike Olt and one more from the Rangers, perhaps a rotation arm (you know ... as good as Profar is ... this is one that I mildly wonder about whether or not Daniels and Co. may go all-in on the near future).

 

Garza will still be cost-controlled and entering his prime. Ideally, I'd get 2 pitchers in any deal. If someone forks over a boatload, then I think you have to ponder it. But I doubt someone forks over that much. Not impossible, but I doubt it.

Edited November 6, 2011 by toonsterwu

[buckeye27]

if i were a bigtime cubs fan, for the longevity of being competetive, im not sure i'd want albert or fielder. possibly fielder, but not albert. and i'd certainly put a priority on pitching. albert and prince will get long contracts for big money. when it comes to albert, as a st.louis fan, i can probably say that we'd be the best option for an 8-9 year contract. i highly doubt albert is going to be nearly as productive when hes 38/39/40, and he'll be making huge money. but, i can also say, even making 25m+ a year, and putting up a .280/30/90 line, people in st.louis would not be nearly as mad at the end years of the contract than in other cities.

 

you all would certainly be happy with alberts 1st, 2nd, 3rd years in his contract, but as he hits his mid 30's, im not sure it would be such a wise investment. look at the yankees, they will be paying afraud 32m at age 42...that is the most untradable contract in baseball. and considering vernon wells has i believe 3 years and something like 75m+ left on his, thats saying a lot.

 

there are options out there for you guys at first i'd think, via trade or cheaper alternatives. i think theo is probably going to do this right, stock your farm system with talent and then fill in the holes as you guys go with FA's. i do not believe that he is looking for a one year turn around. prince would make the most sense if you were to get one of the big ticket 1st basemen.

 

as for garza, i'd kill to have him on my team, and i believe he's one of the guys in the majors on your roster that you absolutely want to keep. he is affordable for what he brings to the table, thats for sure. we're stuck with 2 middle of the road starters (lohse and westbrook) that make a combined 20m. garza made a whopping 5.9m last year i believe, which for someone putting his numbers up, is a complete bargin.

 

you can build the rest of the staff around that guy and pencil him in as your solid #2. without a doubt.

[soonercub]

Yankees have kicked the tires on Garza according to Sherman.

 

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/boston_bobby_WJRjpnvIVMMrLlzOukvv1N/1