Lilly & Theriot to the Dodgers for DeWitt, 2 Minor Leaguers

[Danny82]

They could do far worse than Happ.

 

I think he would be a good return for Lilly. The guy has a solid record, outside of his performance in AAA in 2007 and for all we know, he could have been dealing with some sort of injury. Also, FWIW, I see nothing to indicate that he was pitching over his head last year.

[illiniguy]

 

I'm not getting your response here.

Sorry I thought you were talking for only this year. My mistake.

[Outshined_One]

They could do far worse than Happ.

 

I think he would be a good return for Lilly. The guy has a solid record, outside of his performance in AAA in 2007 and for all we know, he could have been dealing with some sort of injury. Also, FWIW, I see nothing to indicate that he was pitching over his head last year.

 

FIP and BABIP disagree. He got really lucky last year. He also has a history of elbow injuries (this year and 2007), which makes me really leery.

 

Now, granted, Happ could be a workable #4 starter in his career. I wouldn't mind trading Lilly for Happ and another prospect or two. However, I wouldn't do Lilly for Happ straight up.

[SouthSideRyan]

How many years of above average major league pitching before Wells has enough of a track record? You're already punting next year anyway, so why would you want to bring in a guy like Happ who the best you could hope for is what every one of our pitchers did this year?

 

You ask that as if he's got 3-4. He's got 1 so far in his career. And he's yet to do it over a full season of 180-200 innings either. Still, he could be your 2nd more reliable starter next year. That's not good.

 

If you can call monthly end points over 2 seasons full years from Lee, can I add up the random innings Wells had before '09 and put them on to his 2010 season? And Wells threw 191.1 professional innings last year. What is it in Wells's peripherals over this season and last that makes you think he won't be good going forward?

 

Pretty sure Carlos Zambrano would be the 2nd most reliable starter behind Dempster. You're acting like these guys are getting by on pure luck this year and they're not. You trade Silva's bloated ass, fill out the 5th with Diamond/Jackson/Cashner and have the other 2 as swingmen/AAA insurance. It's not complicated, and that's an above average rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

How many years of above average major league pitching before Wells has enough of a track record? You're already punting next year anyway, so why would you want to bring in a guy like Happ who the best you could hope for is what every one of our pitchers did this year?

 

You ask that as if he's got 3-4. He's got 1 so far in his career. And he's yet to do it over a full season of 180-200 innings either. Still, he could be your 2nd more reliable starter next year. That's not good.

 

If you can call monthly end points over 2 seasons full years from Lee, can I add up the random innings Wells had before '09 and put them on to his 2010 season? And Wells threw 191.1 professional innings last year.

 

Pretty sure Carlos Zambrano would be the 2nd most reliable starter behind Dempster. You're acting like these guys are getting by on pure luck this year and they're not. You trade Silva's bloated ass, fill out the 5th with Diamond/Jackson/Cashner and have the other 2 as swingmen/AAA insurance. It's not complicated, and that's an above average rotation.

 

Again, this team may have Cashner pencilled into the bullpen and we have no idea where Zambrano will be.

 

I'm not sure what 2008 innings would have to do with Wells' 2010.

[SouthSideRyan]

How many years of above average major league pitching before Wells has enough of a track record? You're already punting next year anyway, so why would you want to bring in a guy like Happ who the best you could hope for is what every one of our pitchers did this year?

 

You ask that as if he's got 3-4. He's got 1 so far in his career. And he's yet to do it over a full season of 180-200 innings either. Still, he could be your 2nd more reliable starter next year. That's not good.

 

If you can call monthly end points over 2 seasons full years from Lee, can I add up the random innings Wells had before '09 and put them on to his 2010 season? And Wells threw 191.1 professional innings last year.

 

Pretty sure Carlos Zambrano would be the 2nd most reliable starter behind Dempster. You're acting like these guys are getting by on pure luck this year and they're not. You trade Silva's bloated ass, fill out the 5th with Diamond/Jackson/Cashner and have the other 2 as swingmen/AAA insurance. It's not complicated, and that's an above average rotation.

 

Again, this team may have Cashner pencilled into the bullpen and we have no idea where Zambrano will be.

 

I'm not sure what 2008 innings would have to do with Wells' 2010.

 

Ok, please tell me what does have to do with Wells's 2010, because you apparently don't feel his 2009 or 2010 performance offer kind of hint as to what we can expect from here on out. Yes, congrats you got me he hasn't pitched a full season in 2010 yet, the worthless bastard. Why is he likely to be so far below average the rest of the way such that this season can't be considered a full above average season?

[jersey cubs fan]

Ok, please tell me what does have to do with Wells's 2010, because you apparently don't feel his 2009 or 2010 performance offer kind of hint as to what we can expect from here on out. Yes, congrats you got me he hasn't pitched a full season in 2010 yet, the worthless bastard. Why is he likely to be so far below average the rest of the way such that this season can't be considered a full above average season?

 

My you're a prissy little one aren't you.

 

 

I'm not begging for starter help. I'm saying they should leave open the possibility of acquiring a starter. I'd prefer they focus on offense above all, but considering the lack of obvious candidates there, they can use all the help they can get. It's not like this is the greatest rotation in baseball.

 

As for Wells, I thought a lot of what he did last year was smoke and mirrors. I was starting to think otherwise early this year until he started to go off the tracks a bit. He's been okay, but far from anything that can't be improved upon. He's also yet to throw a full season of quality major league innings, and I don't see what's so wrong with pointing that out.

[Guest]

Ok, please tell me what does have to do with Wells's 2010, because you apparently don't feel his 2009 or 2010 performance offer kind of hint as to what we can expect from here on out. Yes, congrats you got me he hasn't pitched a full season in 2010 yet, the worthless bastard. Why is he likely to be so far below average the rest of the way such that this season can't be considered a full above average season?

 

My you're a prissy little one aren't you.

 

 

I'm not begging for starter help. I'm saying they should leave open the possibility of acquiring a starter. I'd prefer they focus on offense above all, but considering the lack of obvious candidates there, they can use all the help they can get. It's not like this is the greatest rotation in baseball.

 

As for Wells, I thought a lot of what he did last year was smoke and mirrors. I was starting to think otherwise early this year until he started to go off the tracks a bit. He's been okay, but far from anything that can't be improved upon. He's also yet to throw a full season of quality major league innings, and I don't see what's so wrong with pointing that out.

You're seriously underestimating what Wells has done this year. He's been very good.

[CUBZ99]

Ok, please tell me what does have to do with Wells's 2010, because you apparently don't feel his 2009 or 2010 performance offer kind of hint as to what we can expect from here on out. Yes, congrats you got me he hasn't pitched a full season in 2010 yet, the worthless bastard. Why is he likely to be so far below average the rest of the way such that this season can't be considered a full above average season?

 

My you're a prissy little one aren't you.

 

 

I'm not begging for starter help. I'm saying they should leave open the possibility of acquiring a starter. I'd prefer they focus on offense above all, but considering the lack of obvious candidates there, they can use all the help they can get. It's not like this is the greatest rotation in baseball.

 

As for Wells, I thought a lot of what he did last year was smoke and mirrors. I was starting to think otherwise early this year until he started to go off the tracks a bit. He's been okay, but far from anything that can't be improved upon. He's also yet to throw a full season of quality major league innings, and I don't see what's so wrong with pointing that out.

You're seriously underestimating what Wells has done this year. He's been very good.

 

A 1.39 WHIP is not "very good." And to look at his other numbers, there is nothing that stands out as very good. Based on WHIP he rates in the bottom 1/3 of qualified NL starters. He consistently gives up more hits than IP, doesn't strike out many batters and overall is not a pitcher that the Cubs should be guaranteeing a spot in the rotation to next year.

[dew1679666265]

Wells 2010 FIP: 3.29

Wells 2010 xFIP: 3.71

Wells 2010 K/BB: 95:33

Wells 2010 WAR: 2.9

 

Pretty solid all the way around.

[Guest]

Wells is in the Top 15 in MLB in FIP, Top 20 in WAR, and Top 25 in xFIP. He's been very, very good.

[Bruno7481]

With guys like Wells there are always going to be some doubt and question marks. I think it is fair to see that he has average stuff. There will be days when he gets knocked around when not hitting his spots.

 

Despite that, he's cheap and has done well as a back end guy. I think Wells becomes much more valuable as that back end guy with a few "better stuff" guys in front of him.

[dew1679666265]

Not sure this is new info, but from Stark's twitter:

 

Action on Ted Lilly has clearly picked up today w/ #Dodgers #Twins #Tigers #Phillies. If u want him to pitch Sun, can't wait til Sat

[davell]

Not a fan of Happ. That said, it kind og follows what Hendry said a few weeks ago, which was "any trade we make will have next year in mind." In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Brandon Wood was involved in the Lee deal, to be honest......

 

Personally, with the group of guys we currently have in AA and AAA, unless we get a top 100ish talent for Lilly, I'd much rather get some high end A or A+ ball pitcher myself. The kid the Tigers just gave up for Peralta is more in line with what I had in mind for Lilly honestly.....

[CUBZ99]

Wells is in the Top 15 in MLB in FIP, Top 20 in WAR, and Top 25 in xFIP. He's been very, very good.

 

Doesn't FIP favor pitchers that pitch to contact? His .337 BABIP suggests that he gets hit pretty hard.

[Guest]

Wells is in the Top 15 in MLB in FIP, Top 20 in WAR, and Top 25 in xFIP. He's been very, very good.

 

Doesn't FIP favor pitchers that pitch to contact? His .337 BABIP suggests that he gets hit pretty hard.

The way you're using BABIP goes against the general theory that there are very few pitchers that can influence their BABIP. That means that with a few exceptions such as knuckelballers, all pitchers will vary around league average BABIP rates.

 

This is a long winded way of saying that pointing to his BABIP rate is actually a way of pointing out that Wells has been better this year than his ERA and other stats would suggest.

[Tim M]

Happ isn't a bad return for Lilly.

 

Dempster

Zambrano

Gorzellany

Wells

Happ

 

With Jackson, Cashner, Diamond, etc. all waiting. If nothing else it gives us options and trade chips.

[Guest]

I really don't want to block Cashner from the rotation next year in favor of an inferior pitcher. The less reason the Cubs have to keep him in the pen, the better.

[Guest]

Wells is in the Top 15 in MLB in FIP, Top 20 in WAR, and Top 25 in xFIP. He's been very, very good.

 

Doesn't FIP favor pitchers that pitch to contact? His .337 BABIP suggests that he gets hit pretty hard.

 

To add on to what Tim said, Wells gives up very few HR for someone who supposedly gets pretty hard. And even all things included, he's got a 3.41 ERA in nearly 300 MLB innings, so it's not like he's got a great FIP and is still giving up tons of runs.

[dew1679666265]

Does anybody know what kind of stuff Happ has? Is it possible that Rothschild could work with him and tweak his approach or mechanics to improve him?

 

Rothschild has gotten a number of major league pitching acquisitions (Dempster, Silva, Marquis, etc) putting up better numbers than most anyone expected. Could he do the same with Happ, or does Happ simply not have the stuff to be more than a back of the rotation guy?

[sneakypower]

Wells is in the Top 15 in MLB in FIP, Top 20 in WAR, and Top 25 in xFIP. He's been very, very good.

 

Doesn't FIP favor pitchers that pitch to contact? His .337 BABIP suggests that he gets hit pretty hard.

 

To add on to what Tim said, Wells gives up very few HR for someone who supposedly gets pretty hard. And even all things included, he's got a 3.41 ERA in nearly 300 MLB innings, so it's not like he's got a great FIP and is still giving up tons of runs.

he really doesn't get his just due

[Guest]

I really don't want to block Cashner from the rotation next year in favor of an inferior pitcher. The less reason the Cubs have to keep him in the pen, the better.

 

Definitely.

 

The Cubs should do better than Happ but I fear Hendry is more concerned with immediately helping the big league squad (as davell said) than maximizing value.

[JWCUB]

•Talks between the Phillies and Astros have intensified in the last day, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. The clubs have more or less agreed on players - J.A. Happ and prospects would go to Houston - but they can’t agree on how much salary the Astros will absorb. Jayson Werth is off the market, so taking on payroll won’t be easy for the Phils.

•The Dodgers are now more focused on trying to obtain Ted Lilly or Paul Maholm.

[SouthSideRyan]

Does anybody know what kind of stuff Happ has? Is it possible that Rothschild could work with him and tweak his approach or mechanics to improve him?

 

Rothschild has gotten a number of major league pitching acquisitions (Dempster, Silva, Marquis, etc) putting up better numbers than most anyone expected. Could he do the same with Happ, or does Happ simply not have the stuff to be more than a back of the rotation guy?

 

There's not really a common bond between the 3 pitchers you named with regards to their stuff or what was holding them back. Why not hope he makes something out of the major league ready arms we already have?

[dew1679666265]

There's not really a common bond between the 3 pitchers you named with regards to their stuff or what was holding them back. Why not hope he makes something out of the major league ready arms we already have?

 

Exactly what the problem was with each was different, but they were all either mechanical issues (Dempster tipping pitches) or a pitcher changing his approach (Silva, Marquis). Really, though, the important bond between the three is that they were all underperforming when they arrived in Chicago and Larry fixed all three (among others).

 

I don't know if he could do the same with Happ, but if there's any improvement to be had for Happ, I'd be really confident Rothschild could get it out. The major league ready arms we have in the minors is definitely a reason not to do the deal, though.