Lilly & Theriot to the Dodgers for DeWitt, 2 Minor Leaguers

[daske17]

There goes Bruce, putting logic into a situation in which there is none. Has Hendry ever offered arbitration to a Type A in order to get the draft picks?

 

I never realized it until you asked...but the answer as it relates to pocketing draft picks appears to be no. :-s

 

Oh dear. I was being facetious but yikes.

 

It's not like the Cubs have let a lot of good players go over the years. I was trying to find out who was potentially type A in the past earlier and found that maybe Alou and Wood were the two most high profile that the Cubs declined on? Was there anybody else besides random middle relievers?

 

Weren't Slappy and Harden Type A?

[CubColtPacer]

There goes Bruce, putting logic into a situation in which there is none. Has Hendry ever offered arbitration to a Type A in order to get the draft picks?

 

I never realized it until you asked...but the answer as it relates to pocketing draft picks appears to be no. :-s

 

Oh dear. I was being facetious but yikes.

 

It's not like the Cubs have let a lot of good players go over the years. I was trying to find out who was potentially type A in the past earlier and found that maybe Alou and Wood were the two most high profile that the Cubs declined on? Was there anybody else besides random middle relievers?

 

Weren't Slappy and Harden Type A?

 

Pierre was a type B and the Cubs did get a compensation pick for him. Harden was a type B that the Cubs chose not to offer.

[dew1679666265]

Stark's latest on Lilly:

 

An official of one club speaking with the Cubs says, flatly, that Ted Lilly "is definitely going to get moved." But events of the last week haven't helped the Cubs' leverage. The Tigers are now reassessing their direction in the wake of all their injuries. The Mets have backed off their shopping plans after their disastrous road trip, though they could also charge back into the August market if they get hot. And the Dodgers seem to be waiting on pursuing Lilly hard until they determine first whether they can deal for Oswalt. Nevertheless, there's still no effective starting pitcher more available these days than Lilly.

[pccubfan]

Stark's latest on Lilly:

 

An official of one club speaking with the Cubs says, flatly, that Ted Lilly "is definitely going to get moved." But events of the last week haven't helped the Cubs' leverage. The Tigers are now reassessing their direction in the wake of all their injuries. The Mets have backed off their shopping plans after their disastrous road trip, though they could also charge back into the August market if they get hot. And the Dodgers seem to be waiting on pursuing Lilly hard until they determine first whether they can deal for Oswalt. Nevertheless, there's still no effective starting pitcher more available these days than Lilly.

 

This has bad trade written all over it. I hope Hendry can find a trade that makes sense from the Cubs' perspective, and if he doesn't, he holds onto Lilly.

[dew1679666265]

Stark's latest on Lilly:

 

An official of one club speaking with the Cubs says, flatly, that Ted Lilly "is definitely going to get moved." But events of the last week haven't helped the Cubs' leverage. The Tigers are now reassessing their direction in the wake of all their injuries. The Mets have backed off their shopping plans after their disastrous road trip, though they could also charge back into the August market if they get hot. And the Dodgers seem to be waiting on pursuing Lilly hard until they determine first whether they can deal for Oswalt. Nevertheless, there's still no effective starting pitcher more available these days than Lilly.

 

This has bad trade written all over it. I hope Hendry can find a trade that makes sense from the Cubs' perspective, and if he doesn't, he holds onto Lilly.

 

I'm not too surprised that teams are bringing up reasons why they wouldn't have interest in Lilly. It's about trying to drive down his price this week. By Friday or Saturday, we should start seeing the interest increase again and teams start to get serious.

 

It wouldn't surprise me, though, if we got a package similar (but better) to the one we got for DeRosa. The scout in Hendry probably likes the high upside, yet flawed, guys like Archer, Gaub and Stevens.

[Outshined_One]

It's not like the Cubs have let a lot of good players go over the years. I was trying to find out who was potentially type A in the past earlier and found that maybe Alou and Wood were the two most high profile that the Cubs declined on? Was there anybody else besides random middle relievers?

 

I don't think so. Kendall and Pierre were Type B FAs who netted the Cubs an extra draft pick apiece, but that's about it, from my memory.

 

To be quite honest, I'm not sure what to make of this information...if anything. With talented players performing well, the Cubs tend hand out extensions when those players' contracts are expiring (Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, etc.). Most of the players the Cubs have traded away were pretty much at the nadir of their careers and didn't merit much, if anything, in the way of compensation as free agents (Michael Barrett, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson, Greg Maddux).

[pccubfan]

Stark's latest on Lilly:

 

An official of one club speaking with the Cubs says, flatly, that Ted Lilly "is definitely going to get moved." But events of the last week haven't helped the Cubs' leverage. The Tigers are now reassessing their direction in the wake of all their injuries. The Mets have backed off their shopping plans after their disastrous road trip, though they could also charge back into the August market if they get hot. And the Dodgers seem to be waiting on pursuing Lilly hard until they determine first whether they can deal for Oswalt. Nevertheless, there's still no effective starting pitcher more available these days than Lilly.

 

This has bad trade written all over it. I hope Hendry can find a trade that makes sense from the Cubs' perspective, and if he doesn't, he holds onto Lilly.

 

I'm not too surprised that teams are bringing up reasons why they wouldn't have interest in Lilly. It's about trying to drive down his price this week. By Friday or Saturday, we should start seeing the interest increase again and teams start to get serious.

 

It wouldn't surprise me, though, if we got a package similar (but better) to the one we got for DeRosa. The scout in Hendry probably likes the high upside, yet flawed, guys like Archer, Gaub and Stevens.

 

I understand that Archer has made huge strides this year, but he was no great shakes at the time of the deal. Couldn't the Cubs reasonably use the two draft picks to sign guys with a higher ceiling than the relief pitchers Gaub and Stevens are and a wild, fireballer in Low A ball (at time of trade)?

[dew1679666265]

I understand that Archer has made huge strides this year, but he was no great shakes at the time of the deal. Couldn't the Cubs reasonably use the two draft picks to sign guys with a higher ceiling than the relief pitchers Gaub and Stevens are and a wild, fireballer in Low A ball (at time of trade)?

 

They could, yes. However, you'll know a lot more about a guy like Archer, even if he's not rated real highly, and his ability to get guys at the pro level out than you will about a guy coming in from high school or college.

 

I'm not really advocating targeting those types of players for a guy as valuable as Lilly, keep in mind. I prefer focusing on the more highly rated guys who are a bit more of a sure thing. However, I simply wouldn't be surprised if Hendry targets a similar, but better group of players that he got in the DeRosa trade.

[daske17]

It's not like the Cubs have let a lot of good players go over the years. I was trying to find out who was potentially type A in the past earlier and found that maybe Alou and Wood were the two most high profile that the Cubs declined on? Was there anybody else besides random middle relievers?

 

I don't think so. Kendall and Pierre were Type B FAs who netted the Cubs an extra draft pick apiece, but that's about it, from my memory.

 

To be quite honest, I'm not sure what to make of this information...if anything. With talented players performing well, the Cubs tend hand out extensions when those players' contracts are expiring (Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, etc.). Most of the players the Cubs have traded away were pretty much at the nadir of their careers and didn't merit much, if anything, in the way of compensation as free agents (Michael Barrett, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson, Greg Maddux).

 

To be fair, Hendry ruined the trade value of Barrett, Sosa and Patterson before pulling the trigger on any deal. To his benefit and/or fault, players always know where they stand with him. Unfortunately, so do the other teams.

 

Sosa and Barrett, as well as guys like Bradley, Wuertz and Eyre, were publicly on the outs with the team long before they were traded.

[dew1679666265]

To be fair, Hendry ruined the trade value of Barrett, Sosa and Patterson before pulling the trigger on any deal. To his benefit and/or fault, players always know where they stand with him. Unfortunately, so do the other teams.

 

Sosa and Barrett, as well as guys like Bradley, Wuertz and Eyre, were publicly on the outs with the team long before they were traded.

 

What did Hendry do to ruin Barrett's trade value? Barrett punched Z and then the Cubs traded him. I don't recall Hendry stressing the need to trade Barrett or anything. Plus, we got Kyler Burke for Barrett, not a bad haul considering he had a .734 OPS for us when we traded him.

[Post Count Padder]

To be fair, Hendry ruined the trade value of Barrett, Sosa and Patterson before pulling the trigger on any deal. To his benefit and/or fault, players always know where they stand with him. Unfortunately, so do the other teams.

 

Sosa and Barrett, as well as guys like Bradley, Wuertz and Eyre, were publicly on the outs with the team long before they were traded.

 

What did Hendry do to ruin Barrett's trade value? Barrett punched Z and then the Cubs traded him. I don't recall Hendry stressing the need to trade Barrett or anything. Plus, we got Kyler Burke for Barrett, not a bad haul considering he had a .734 OPS for us when we traded him.

True. But it is a case of Hendry selling low. I mean, it's not like every player in a dugout/clubhouse scuffle got traded right after. Not complaining about that one, though. As you pointed out we got a nice return. The other trades, on the other hand...

[Rob]

It's not like the Cubs have let a lot of good players go over the years. I was trying to find out who was potentially type A in the past earlier and found that maybe Alou and Wood were the two most high profile that the Cubs declined on? Was there anybody else besides random middle relievers?

 

I don't think so. Kendall and Pierre were Type B FAs who netted the Cubs an extra draft pick apiece, but that's about it, from my memory.

 

To be quite honest, I'm not sure what to make of this information...if anything. With talented players performing well, the Cubs tend hand out extensions when those players' contracts are expiring (Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, etc.). Most of the players the Cubs have traded away were pretty much at the nadir of their careers and didn't merit much, if anything, in the way of compensation as free agents (Michael Barrett, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson, Greg Maddux).

 

And we only got the Kendall comp pick because he signed so early, IIRC.

[dew1679666265]

True. But it is a case of Hendry selling low. I mean, it's not like every player in a dugout/clubhouse scuffle got traded right after. Not complaining about that one, though. As you pointed out we got a nice return. The other trades, on the other hand...

 

I'm still not sure he drove down the value of the other players. Most were already either really old (Sammy) or were playing badly (Bradley, Eyre, Patterson). Wuertz is the only exception as he was young and pitching well.

 

Hendry did sell too low on most of them, though.

[davearm2]

I understand that Archer has made huge strides this year, but he was no great shakes at the time of the deal. Couldn't the Cubs reasonably use the two draft picks to sign guys with a higher ceiling than the relief pitchers Gaub and Stevens are and a wild, fireballer in Low A ball (at time of trade)?

If you trade Lilly right now for prospects, the financial outlay is essentially zero.

 

If you keep Lilly, offer arb, then use the comp picks, the financial outlay is on the order of $5M bucks -- Lilly's salary for the remainder of 2010, plus the cost to sign a first- and a second-round pick.

 

Along the way, things could be screwed up either by Lilly accepting arb, or by the draftees not signing.

 

Those draftees better be significantly better than the prospects available right now to justify that expense and risk.

 

Nobody's going to want to hear that side, but it's definitely a factor in the decision.

[Guest]

I understand that Archer has made huge strides this year, but he was no great shakes at the time of the deal. Couldn't the Cubs reasonably use the two draft picks to sign guys with a higher ceiling than the relief pitchers Gaub and Stevens are and a wild, fireballer in Low A ball (at time of trade)?

If you trade Lilly right now for prospects, the financial outlay is essentially zero.

 

If you keep Lilly, offer arb, then use the comp picks, the financial outlay is on the order of $5M bucks -- Lilly's salary for the remainder of 2010, plus the cost to sign a first- and a second-round pick.

 

Along the way, things could be screwed up either by Lilly accepting arb, or by the draftees not signing.

 

Those draftees better be significantly better than the prospects available right now to justify that expense and risk.

 

Nobody's going to want to hear that side, but it's definitely a factor in the decision.

There's also the opportunity to use the ~$4M in salary savings to go a bit nuts on international signings or 2011 draft overslotting. So the return for trading him now could be stated as:

 

----

 

prospects from trade + $4M in cost savings

 

or

 

prospects from trade + $4M of additional prospect signings

 

plus a risk avoidance of Lilly accepting arbitration either way

 

----

 

Whichever of those two options the cubs would pick from would have to be compared to the value of keeping Lilly for the remainder of the season plus the two draft picks (if Lilly is a type A, and only a first rounder if the signing team is not in the top 15 picks and only then if they don't also sign a higher rated type A).

[dew1679666265]

There's also the injury risk with Lilly pitching in the second half of the year. It's unlikely his arm would fall off in the next 2-3 months, but there's that chance.

[daske17]

True. But it is a case of Hendry selling low. I mean, it's not like every player in a dugout/clubhouse scuffle got traded right after. Not complaining about that one, though. As you pointed out we got a nice return. The other trades, on the other hand...

 

I'm still not sure he drove down the value of the other players. Most were already either really old (Sammy) or were playing badly (Bradley, Eyre, Patterson). Wuertz is the only exception as he was young and pitching well.

 

Hendry did sell too low on most of them, though.

 

He made it pretty well known that Sosa, Bradley and Eyre (through Lou's weird nonuse of him) had to go. He pretty much based the 04 and 09 offseason on that contention.

[dew1679666265]

True. But it is a case of Hendry selling low. I mean, it's not like every player in a dugout/clubhouse scuffle got traded right after. Not complaining about that one, though. As you pointed out we got a nice return. The other trades, on the other hand...

 

I'm still not sure he drove down the value of the other players. Most were already either really old (Sammy) or were playing badly (Bradley, Eyre, Patterson). Wuertz is the only exception as he was young and pitching well.

 

Hendry did sell too low on most of them, though.

 

He made it pretty well known that Sosa, Bradley and Eyre (through Lou's weird nonuse of him) had to go. He pretty much based the 04 and 09 offseason on that contention.

 

Right, I'm just saying I think their value had pretty much bottomed out already. Sammy was 36 years old and his OPS had just dropped 70 points, Bradley had a .775 OPS and was a clubhouse headache and Eyre had struggled (if I remember right) that entire season. My point is that their value was about as low as it would go and Hendry talking about how they had to go likely didn't drop the value a significant amount.

[pccubfan]

I'd take the chance on Lilly accepting arbitration. Worst case you get a decent starting pitcher for a market salary and if he wants more than a one year deal you get two high draft choices.

 

The Cubs certainly know more about his health than I or anyone on this board does, so if there is concern within the organization about Lilly staying healthy next year, that could be a reason to dump him.

 

I hope the Cubs trade Lilly, but barring injury risk that I don't know about, he better bring back value that is close to what the two picks would be worth.

[Benchwarmer]

There's also the opportunity to use the ~$4M in salary savings to go a bit nuts on international signings.

 

Tim-I know that some teams(Dodgers and Seattle) value their Far East scouting and have had success, but I don't think the Cubs are good at it. Fukudome has been a disappointment and Hee Seop Choi couldn't get out of other players way. We've had catching and pitching suspects who languish at A or AA. Are we missing out on the really good ones or just not enough to around?

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you're underselling the potential of our minor leaguers from the Pacific Rim

[dew1679666265]

There's also the opportunity to use the ~$4M in salary savings to go a bit nuts on international signings.

 

Tim-I know that some teams(Dodgers and Seattle) value their Far East scouting and have had success, but I don't think the Cubs are good at it. Fukudome has been a disappointment and Hee Seop Choi couldn't get out of other players way. We've had catching and pitching suspects who languish at A or AA. Are we missing out on the really good ones or just not enough to around?

 

There are some really interesting young players in the minors right now from the Far East. Hak-Ju Lee is a 19 (I think) year old shortstop who is a whiz defensively and is developing offensively. If he progresses like it appears he will, he'll force Castro off SS in the future. We also have Dae-Eun Rhee, a real interesting pitcher coming off an injury. There are others, but I can't think of more off the top of my head.

[Outshined_One]

There's also the opportunity to use the ~$4M in salary savings to go a bit nuts on international signings.

 

Tim-I know that some teams(Dodgers and Seattle) value their Far East scouting and have had success, but I don't think the Cubs are good at it. Fukudome has been a disappointment and Hee Seop Choi couldn't get out of other players way. We've had catching and pitching suspects who languish at A or AA. Are we missing out on the really good ones or just not enough to around?

 

Hak-Ju Lee will be a Top 100 prospect by year's end (if he isn't already) and will likely be named the Cubs' #2 prospect by a number of prognosticators ahead of guys like Jay Jackson, Chris Archer, and Josh Vitters. I don't think we've missed out on that good one. Dae-Eun Rhee is another good one who looks like he might have recovered from Tommy John and is performing well in Daytona.

 

Furthermore, it's kind of hard to tell how good an 18 year old prospect is in the Arizona League when the focus there is more on fundamentals and mechanics than it is on performance. The only information we really have on players in the AZ league are their stats and Arizona Phil. Most of the recent Pac Rim signings are currently playing there, so it's hard to tell if someone like Yao-Lin Wang will be a top-level pitching prospect two years from now or if he doesn't have much of a future.

 

As for the guys in Peoria, aside from Lee, there's some amount of intrigue with Jae-Hoon Ha, Su-Min Jung, and Ryan Searle. None of them might pan out, but they've had some amount of success in their careers thus far; plus they're all relatively young for the MWL.

 

The bottom line in all of this is, it's too early to tell whether the Cubs' Pac Rim efforts will have a positive impact on the major league team. However, the early signs have been positive.

[mul21]

To add to what has already been said, international doesn't mean just the Pac Rim kids. The Cubs haven't signed a big money guy from Latin America in a while and that potential savings may allow them to try to make a splash on one or two of the wunderkinds from that area as well as the apparent success they're having in the Far East.

[erik316wttn]

Glad Lilly looked good tonight. That can't hurt the trade value at all.