Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[mk49]

Is Kelly overrated, and/or Amaya underrated?  One of the podcasters said out of all the Cubs free agents, re-signing Kelly should be the top priority, which I don't get.  An article graded Kelly B+ and Amaya C-, and said "Kelly shines, Amaya struggles".  

Their wRC+ (both with and without RISP) and fWAR were basically the same in 2026.  Defensively, Amaya was rated higher.  Kelly was better against LHP's.  But, that's about it.  Oh, Amaya had higher K%.  

I'd like to re-sign Kelly at the right price (for the Cubs) for 1 or 2 years (Ayers ready or not), but somebody will outbid the Cubs for sure.  I'll miss his baserunning and pitching for sure, though.😄  More than likely, I think we'll get another veteran catcher for less money than Kelly.

[Bill Fogg]

I'm with you on the Happ situation but you are dead wrong on Hoerner. Hoerner plays the type of 'small ball' that wins playoff games and low scoring games against tough pitching. He can advance runners by hitting to the opposite side or execute a sacrifice bunt and usually posts 20+ stolen bases each year as well as he runs the bases well. He is not a home run hitter, but he accumulated 72 RBI's which is more than Happ did with his 24 HR's. He plays Gold Glove caliber defense at a premium position and manned the shortstop position for the month that Swanson was on the DL [ will probably cost him the Gold Glove ] . I'm more than satisfied with what Hoerner brings to the team, management has much greater areas of weakness to address in the off -season [ pitching # 1 ] .   

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 minute ago, Bill Fogg said:

I'm with you on the Happ situation but you are dead wrong on Hoerner. Hoerner plays the type of 'small ball' that wins playoff games and low scoring games against tough pitching. He can advance runners by hitting to the opposite side or execute a sacrifice bunt and usually posts 20+ stolen bases each year as well as he runs the bases well. He is not a home run hitter, but he accumulated 72 RBI's which is more than Happ did with his 24 HR's. He plays Gold Glove caliber defense at a premium position and manned the shortstop position for the month that Swanson was on the DL [ will probably cost him the Gold Glove ] . I'm more than satisfied with what Hoerner brings to the team, management has much greater areas of weakness to address in the off -season [ pitching # 1 ] .   

I agree with most of this but I have never seen Nico bunt. Not even once

[mk49]

7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I agree with most of this but I have never seen Nico bunt. Not even once

We actually don't see many of them bunt.😁  In the last 2 seasons, I saw Pete, Happ, Amaya and Shaw (who sucked at it) bunting.  But, that's about it.

Edited yesterday at 02:09 AM by mk49

[mk49]

Just found that Mize gave up 13 HR's in 44.2 innings (2.65 HR/9), after the trade.  He'll fit right in.😁

[mk49]

Speaking of HR/9 at Wrigley this year.  I remember Counsell said the wind was blowing out, pretty much every time Shota pitched.  That was in June or July.  

Here's HR/9 (min. 20 innings pitched)

Thielbar  2.39
Jamo  2.33
Thornton  1.99
Gausman  1.95
Cabrera  1.89
Shota  1.71 (1.62, if you don't count the inside the park HR, which was Pete's screw-up)
Boyd  1.63
Rea  1.60

That's a lot.  If it's going to be similar next year, it'd make a lot of sense to re-sign Peterson (0.96 HR/9) and Holmes (0.38 HR/9).  And, surprised to find that Shota wasn't half bad.  He just pitched a lot more innings than others.

Edited yesterday at 02:55 AM by mk49

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/10/sonny-gray-plans-to-pitch-in-2027.html

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, mk49 said:

Is Kelly overrated, and/or Amaya underrated?  One of the podcasters said out of all the Cubs free agents, re-signing Kelly should be the top priority, which I don't get.  An article graded Kelly B+ and Amaya C-, and said "Kelly shines, Amaya struggles".  

Their wRC+ (both with and without RISP) and fWAR were basically the same in 2026.  Defensively, Amaya was rated higher.  Kelly was better against LHP's.  But, that's about it.  Oh, Amaya had higher K%.  

I'd like to re-sign Kelly at the right price (for the Cubs) for 1 or 2 years (Ayers ready or not), but somebody will outbid the Cubs for sure.  I'll miss his baserunning and pitching for sure, though.😄  More than likely, I think we'll get another veteran catcher for less money than Kelly.

On a rate basis Amaya's actually been quite a bit better than Kelly the last few years.  

That said don't gloss over that "on a rate basis" qualifier:

- Amaya has a lengthy injury history even for a catcher

- Kelly has clearly been the #1 in the team's eyes the past two years, it's safe to say some of Amaya's production has been a result favorable matchups

- Kelly has had way more playing time, abd the nature of catchers is that wear and tear behind the plate follows you to the batters box.

Kelly's probably a better player.  If we're using those school style grades I'd probably call Kelly a B+ and Amaya a B-.  But Amaya is 5 years younger and we have Ayers knocking on the door too.  So it's the right call to let Kelly go get a raise somewhere else and bring in a lesser veteran behind Amaya.

[Geographyhater8888]

What about Taylor Ward? 

Edited yesterday at 10:57 AM by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, mk49 said:

Speaking of HR/9 at Wrigley this year.  I remember Counsell said the wind was blowing out, pretty much every time Shota pitched.  That was in June or July.  

Here's HR/9 (min. 20 innings pitched)

Thielbar  2.39
Jamo  2.33
Thornton  1.99
Gausman  1.95
Cabrera  1.89
Shota  1.71 (1.62, if you don't count the inside the park HR, which was Pete's screw-up)
Boyd  1.63
Rea  1.60

That's a lot.  If it's going to be similar next year, it'd make a lot of sense to re-sign Peterson (0.96 HR/9) and Holmes (0.38 HR/9).  And, surprised to find that Shota wasn't half bad.  He just pitched a lot more innings than others.

They allowed 1.38/9 away last season as a team, 28th, 23rd in 2025 with 1.3/9, and 28th again in 2024 at 1.36/9 when you remove Wrigley field.
 

They’re middle of the pack in ERA and run prevention. They’re also low variance and relatively consistent. They don’t shut teams out often and don’t allow 10+ runs very often relative to other teams. Throw in an offense that’s on the higher end of volatility, a bullpen that’s 27th in clutch under win probability and you’re left with a run differential of team that should have 21 more wins since 2023.

Edited yesterday at 12:49 PM by Geographyhater8888

[mk49]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

Kelly's probably a better player.  If we're using those school style grades I'd probably call Kelly a B+ and Amaya a B-.  But Amaya is 5 years younger and we have Ayers knocking on the door too.  So it's the right call to let Kelly go get a raise somewhere else and bring in a lesser veteran behind Amaya.

I agree.  I wasn't saying Amaya was better.  I just thought he was underrated by some people.  B+ and B- sound about right.

[mk49]

18 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

They allowed 1.38/9 away last season as a team, 28th, 23rd in 2025 with 1.3/9, and 28th again in 2024 at 1.36/9 when you remove Wrigley field. They’re middle of the pack in ERA and run prevention. But that’s not ideal when a pitching staff is as low variance as it is when you don’t shut teams out and don’t allow 10+ runs very often relative to everyone else.

You're right.  It wasn't just at Wrigley and not just the last season.  

[Nolo]

As we have 15 free agent this off season needs a lot of moves in a short period of time before the possible lockout. 

Offseason Wish List

1. Sign one of: Peralta or King

2. Sign both Peterson and Holmes

3. Sign one of: Suzuki or Happ (please Suzuki)

4. Sign one of: Morejón or Bednar

5. Sign Carson Kelly 

are we ready to trust Ayers behind the dish at the major league level? Defensively or offensively? I think Carson would take a 1-2 year deal to stay a Cub tbh and I think with the upcoming lockout a lot of guys will value some future security than uncertainty.  This could apply to many guys though (ie King, Skubal, etc)

Rotation:

- Peralta/King

- Steele

- Holmes

- Peterson 

- Cabrera

- Brown / Assad / Garrett (SP depth)

Bullpen: Morejón/Bednar (closer), Brown, Palencia, Zeferjahn, Rolison, Maton(?), Miller, Webb, Assad (probably too many pitchers but there’s some depth)

Edited yesterday at 02:11 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

As we have 15 free agent this off season needs a lot of moves in a short period of time before the possible lockout. 

Offseason Wish List

1. Sign one of: Peralta or King

2. Sign both Peterson and Holmes

3. Sign one of: Suzuki or Happ (please Suzuki)

4. Sign one of: Morejón or Bednar

5. Sign Carson Kelly 

are we ready to trust Ayers behind the dish at the major league level? Defensively or offensively? I think Carson would take a 1-2 year deal to stay a Cub tbh and I think with the upcoming lockout a lot of guys will value some future security than uncertainty.  This could apply to many guys though (ie King, Skubal, etc)

Rotation:

- Peralta/King

- Steele

- Holmes

- Peterson 

- Cabrera

- Brown / Assad / Garrett (SP depth)

Bullpen: Morejón/Bednar (closer), Brown, Palencia, Zeferjahn, Rolison, Maton(?), Miller, Webb, Assad (probably too many pitchers but there’s some depth)

Without question, I like the idea. But they aren’t spending that kind of money. If they did all of this that would be pushing to $280M-$300M payroll. That is something I am absolutely certain they won’t do. 

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

As we have 15 free agent this off season needs a lot of moves in a short period of time before the possible lockout. 

Offseason Wish List

1. Sign one of: Peralta or King

2. Sign both Peterson and Holmes

3. Sign one of: Suzuki or Happ (please Suzuki)

4. Sign one of: Morejón or Bednar

5. Sign Carson Kelly 

are we ready to trust Ayers behind the dish at the major league level? Defensively or offensively? I think Carson would take a 1-2 year deal to stay a Cub tbh and I think with the upcoming lockout a lot of guys will value some future security than uncertainty.  This could apply to many guys though (ie King, Skubal, etc)

Rotation:

- Peralta/King

- Steele

- Holmes

- Peterson 

- Cabrera

- Brown / Assad / Garrett (SP depth)

Bullpen: Morejón/Bednar (closer), Brown, Palencia, Zeferjahn, Rolison, Maton(?), Miller, Webb, Assad (probably too many pitchers but there’s some depth)

Just don't think the Cubs can count on anything from Steele - ever.  I know it's dark and foreboding on my part but, the fact is Steele has lost velocity, it's not looking good at all.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Just don't think the Cubs can count on anything from Steele - ever.  I know it's dark and foreboding on my part but, the fact is Steele has lost velocity, it's not looking good at all.

I think we will know if you are right pretty early. If they offer him arbitration that would be a sign they don’t agree with you. If they don’t he is set free. I don’t think the Cubs are going to give him $7M just because he has been a good pitcher for a few years and they want to reward him. If they pay him, I am confident he will be fine.

[Post Count Padder]

7 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What about Taylor Ward? 

I would rather keep Happ. I like Happ to post better offensive and defensive numbers in LF. 

I know Happ is streaky and didn't have the best summer but he's overall been solid and think he gets an unfair rap. And there are honestly not many better options out there.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Post Count Padder said:

I would rather keep Happ. I like Happ to post better offensive and defensive numbers in LF. 

I know Happ is streaky and didn't have the best summer but he's overall been solid and think he gets an unfair rap. And there are honestly not many better options out there.

I agree with everything you said. But he cost $23M. Ward won’t cost that. That is the argument against Happ. I would be fine if he took the QO, however. 

[Outshined_One]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with everything you said. But he cost $23M. Ward won’t cost that. That is the argument against Happ. I would be fine if he took the QO, however. 

That's where I come down with Happ. Extend the QO, try to negotiate a home town discount on a 2-3 year deal, and if he decides to walk, so be it.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Has anyone done a deep dive into Taylor Ward's 2026? Because the power fall-off is bizarre. Is he even gonna get a major league deal?

[Post Count Padder]

17 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

That's where I come down with Happ. Extend the QO, try to negotiate a home town discount on a 2-3 year deal, and if he decides to walk, so be it.

He took a hometown discount on his last contract and I imagine he would be open to it again. I've seen no indication he was unhappy here. And he is a man who never looks happy.

[Illiterate Scholar]

27 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Has anyone done a deep dive into Taylor Ward's 2026? Because the power fall-off is bizarre. Is he even gonna get a major league deal?

It was a super weird year, but he did have a .380 obp before the trade. I would think he'd still get 8 figures for at least one year. 

[JBears79]

15 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

He took a hometown discount on his last contract and I imagine he would be open to it again. I've seen no indication he was unhappy here. And he is a man who never looks happy.

Happ was the 3rd highest paid LF in baseball behind Soto and Yelich in 2024 when the deal kicked in and 5th in 2026 when it ended. I think he was paid a pretty fair market value at the time considering the factors at play. Yelich was still in the middle of that 9 year deal coming off his 2018 MVP season and Soto was in his final arb year. I guess you could make the argument that the difference between 21 mil and 26 mil was a discount considering how much better he has been than Yelich since he signed the deal but I dont know.

He's also been the Cubs union rep for a while. I'm not sure I see him taking a home town discount no matter how much he likes Chicago.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

He took a hometown discount on his last contract and I imagine he would be open to it again. I've seen no indication he was unhappy here. And he is a man who never looks happy.

You can't spell "happy" without "happ".

[Andy]

5 hours ago, JBears79 said:

He's also been the Cubs union rep for a while. I'm not sure I see him taking a home town discount no matter how much he likes Chicago.

There's a pretty good argument he already did, he likely could've made more the last few years on whatever free agent deal he'd have gotten post 2023 than he did on the deal he signed.