Nolo

Congrats to all of them on being nominees. I bet Bregman and PCA are locks. Suzuki 50/50. Either way, Suzuki’s just got even more expensive 😆

As we have 15 free agent this off season needs a lot of moves in a short period of time before the possible lockout. Offseason Wish List 1. Sign one of: Peralta or King 2. Sign both Peterson and Holmes 3. Sign one of: Suzuki or Happ (please Suzuki) 4. Sign one of: Morejón or Bednar 5. Sign Carson Kelly are we ready to trust Ayers behind the dish at the major league level? Defensively or offensively? I think Carson would take a 1-2 year deal to stay a Cub tbh and I think with the upcoming lockout a lot of guys will value some future security than uncertainty. This could apply to many guys though (ie King, Skubal, etc) Rotation: - Peralta/King - Steele - Holmes - Peterson - Cabrera - Brown / Assad / Garrett (SP depth) Bullpen: Morejón/Bednar (closer), Brown, Palencia, Zeferjahn, Rolison, Maton(?), Miller, Webb, Assad (probably too many pitchers but there’s some depth)

I disagree with the sentiment that our bullpen is “good” as far as 2027. Look at these playoff games right now, every reliever is nasty. 100 mph sinkers, devastating sliders, painting fastballs. Real leverage guys, real closers. The Cubs did not and would not have fit in this years playoffs. I like Palencia and Zeferjahn, I feel good about them being on a big stage, but who’s our closer for 2027? Let’s say one of them becomes closer, okay so now we only have one setup guy who has 100 mph stuff? I think Webb did great for a bit but I don’t trust him as the 2027 closer. He’s too soft. Cubs need to add at least one more key piece to the bullpen with nasty stuff — if not Morejón then someone like him. But Morejón as a high leverage lefty or even the closer is just what this pen needs to complement the other promising pieces.

Great recap, now we need to get Townsend to throw a minor league inning. I am pumped for this kid but he needs to get innings next year.

Circling back to Adrian Morejón, knowing our luck we would sign him and he will blow out his shoulder. He was unavailable game 2 and 3 for Padres against Milwaukee, the Padres have rode him HARD this year. I’ll take the chance, dominant 27 y.o. left handed bulldog closer or high leverage guy. Padres don’t want to lose him but we should want him more.

The idea was to free up salary to have breathing room to acquire a high end bullpen guy like Morejon or a solid 1-2 starter but the more I talk it out the less I like the idea of it. We should have the money to acquire these guys nonetheless if Hoyer is actually a serious person.

Yeah I mean I am not crazy about cherry picking stats to fit a narrative, I just thought it was interesting. I understand guys get hot streaks and I do not discount his glove. I was curious about where those Dansby 8 game stats stacked up against other guys on the Cubs, so I had Claude cherry pick the best 8 games. Not sure if this makes Dansby's stats look worse or not, but here's the data:

I exaggerated a bit for dramatic effect and quite frankly laziness, but here's the stat as provided by Cubs Baseball Channel on YT (Mick); His season overall: 0.213 / 19 HR / 69 RBI --- sounds decent enough on paper, right? In his best 8 games of the season, he hit 0.625 BA / 12 HR / 31 RBI That 63% of his home runs and 45% of his RBIs in 8 games. In the other 118 games he played, he hit 0.179 with 7 HR and 38 RBIs. Basically he was near an automatic out in the games where he wasn't hot. I love Dansby but we are paying this man $177M

what about trading Dansby for prospects to free up some cash to sign elite arms for bullpen and rotation? Yeah he’s a good SS, but he’s worthless with the bat. Saw a crazy stat that 50% or so of his offensive production came in just 8 games this year. Move Nico over to SS and Ramirez to second. That’s a lot of cash freed up right there for OF, bullpen, and rotation, plus what is already coming off the books.

$40M/yr for Skubal, no. But $40M/yr for Peralta/Peterson/Morejon together, doable. That's just an example, but there are key pieces to fill: a true top of rotation guy, elite bullpen arm, OF. They will need to piece together with multiple guys I don't think going after Skubal is realistic. Dodgers will do what they can to keep him anyways I bet and we aren't outbidding these top teams for him. I understand we *can't* rely on Brown, Steele, Cabrera etc but we are going to have to. I expect them all to be locks for opening day but who knows after that, you're right we need depth, but we can add that with less expensive guys like Peterson. We still have Assad too.

There's about $100M coming off the books in F.A. alone this year too though. I'd like to keep one of Peterson or Boyd, and one of Suzuki or Happ. But there is some money to play with. Skubal money? Probably not. Elite bullpen arms? Yes. A very solid 1-2 guy? Yes. Kevin Gausman: $23 million Shota Imanaga: $22.02 million Ian Happ: $19 million Seiya Suzuki: $19 million Matthew Boyd: $17 million ($15M mutual option / $2M buyout) Clay Holmes: $13 million ($12M player option) David Peterson: $8.1 million Aaron Civale: $6 million We aren't going to fill up our entire starting rotation and pen in free agents and trades, a lot of the success is still going to depend on guys like Brown, Cabrera, Steele, Palencia, Zeferjahn, etc.

Idk if we would turn *the* setup man for the current best bullpen in baseball to a starter. I think in Jed's interview he made it clear he would spend on BP arms.

Here’s what needs to be done this off season: 1. Sign Skubal or King 2. Sign Morejón or Iglesias 3. Re-sign Happ or Suzuki (OR) sign Arozarena 4. Re-sign Peterson 5. Optimize health for Brown and Steele These guys walk: Holmes, Gausman, Boyd, Taylor, Suzuki or Happ, Imanaga, Kelly, Civale Any combination of the above puts Cubs in a good position. Easy enough right? 😆

I feel like even IF we grab a Skubal or King we are still relying on those arms (Brown, Steele) Skubal/King, Steele, Brown, Holmes/Peterson, Cabrera sounds good to me. I do feel like Jed’s going to spend $$$ on bullpen and SP arms. I’m not expecting any “upgrades” in the lineup though.

Morejon is an elite arm

Shota will end up on the white sox and be a top 5 candidate for Cy Young with our luck.

My take on some guys: Michael Busch: he’s still relatively young. I think he just had a down year. He’s our first basemen. Conforto; I don’t think he will be super expensive. He’s getting older and the market will know him as a failed dodger and a cubs platoon guy. if we add legit arms for the rotation and pen we could be looking at PCA, Conforto, and Shaw/Ramirez OF. Conforto has also DH. See below. Clay Holmes: we should re-sign him to have that veteran leadership and depth. He still has some good seasons left in him. Gausman: bet he retires, or signs a 1 year deal with Toronto. He gone either way. Ben Brown: may have to put him in the bullpen because of his neck flare ups but we really need him in the rotation. I just don’t trust that neck over the course of a season. Edward Cabrera: he’s not going anywhere, he needs to figure his blister thing out but he’s going to be in the rotation to start the season. Justin Steele; as far as I’m aware he had no setbacks in his rehab starts. I expect him to be ready to go opening day.. SP depth: Bring back either Peterson or Boyd. Turn them into long relief Rea type guys if the rotation is set opening day, but if the stuff hits the fan with injuries we have options because we need SP depth. We need to have at least 6 solid starters going into the season because you can count on 2 of them getting hurt. The big focus needs to be landing Morejón as a free agent. Give him whatever he wants. I’d be okay with losing Suzuki if we can secure Morejón. I wouldn’t be mad with a bullpen of Morejón, Zeferjahn, Palencia, Miller, maybe Brown. If Jeds serious get Skubal and Morejón, or King and Morejón. Maybe one of those Padres coming to the Cubs would sway the other idk. From Jed’s interview these are the vibes I got: - Happ is more realistic to return than Suzuki. Although Suzuki is the guy we’d want. Honestly though he seems to be talking up Shaw and Ramirez and I bet one or both of them is in the OF. If we add some elite arms to the rotation and bullpen I’ll take Shaw/Ramirez in a corner OF spot and Conforto in the other. Mix and match. But we would be losing a LOT of middle of lineup power in Happ/Suzuki in this case so that needs to be considered. Shaw/Ramirez are 10-15 HR guys max. - it seem like any money that will be spent, will be spent on the bullpen and pitching. I sure hope that’s true.

We really need to do what we can to secure Suzuki imo. I know he can be frustrating but when you look back at his numbers over the past few seasons, that’s massive production that would be lost. Any other big market fan base would be very happy to land him.

Pitching needs to be the focus. Injured Players: We need Steele and Brown to be healthy and Horton to come back at some point later in the season. New Free Agents: Need to pick up at minimum one guy for the rotation, a 1 or 2 guy. Skubal would be great but that’s a pipe dream. Michael King has a player option for $28M so he will probably stay with the padres. Need 1-2 elite relief pitchers. The guy who stands out is Morejón from Padres. If we don’t get him then the offseason is a failure. Current Guys: Should re-sign Holmes or Gausman. I think Holmes has a player option but idk if either of these guys will want to return after this disaster end. Holmes didn’t even get an inning in Wild Card series. i am not ready to give up on Cabrera yet either. He’d make a solid 4-5 guy if he can figure it out. Rotation 1. Free Agent 2. Steele 3. Brown 4. Holmes 5. Cabrera 6. Horton in the mix if he’s back Top pen guys: Morejón, Palencia, Zeferjahn, Miller, Rolison, etc. Hopefully 1-2 elite additions. Position Players 1B - Busch 2B - Hoerner SS - Swanson 3B - Bregman OF - PCA OF - Suzuki OF - Taylor / Conforto / ??? C - Ayers DH - ???