Bill Fogg

Good article BUT it appears that Palencia is rounding back into form. He reached 100 and 101 mph on his fastball on Tuesday and seemed to have good command on his pitches. He was projected to be our closer at the start of the year and after struggling through a series of injuries appears to be returning to his usual level of production. When healthy he is a proven closer. However, we should note some slight improvement in Zefferjahn's performance. As well as solid production from Rollison and Civale. Our starting pitchers are 5-6 inning pitchers and we will need bullpen production from several arms if we want to advance in the Wild Card round. But we should save the 9th inning heroics to Palencia.

I only want to post once so here goes : don't even suggest that J. Steele is coming back this year. Quit Overemphasizing WAR, it's the result of a rating but doesn't take into account how it is earned. Let's take a step into reality : #1. The Cubs have an excellent defense by any measure. #2. The Cubs have an above average offense [ let's not get carried away ]. #3. Cubs starting pitching is okay, not great but good enough in the right matchups combined with their offense to win a World Series. #4. Please note that I wrote good enough to win a World Series not that they will. There are a lot of factors including luck that the winning team needs. #5 The Cubs bullpen is their most glaring weakness, the way baseball is played in the playoffs places a heavy emphasis on a quality bullpen. The Padres are the most dangerous team after the Brewers & Dodgers because of their bullpen. #6 In the playoffs teams will seldom utilize more than their top 3 starters or top setup men and normal closer. Pitchers #9-13 are basically unimportant when it comes to the playoffs. #7. Long term statistical analysis shows that left-handed pitching is more effective against left-handed hitting and vice versa with righties. Statistical anomalies for a season or so may occur but in the long run almost all managers go with the long term analysis. #8. With regards to Reality #7 : The Cubs 5 starting pitchers have not separated themselves very far by performance. The selection of who to start should come down to the matchup of who they play. If it's the Phillies it should be Boyd, Holmes, and Imanaga. The Philly lineup is predominately left handed: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh are their most dangerous hitters. It is probably better to throw a righty in Game #2 in case of a game #3. Using 3 lefty starters in a row could increase the Phillies effectiveness against lefties in Game #3. I selected the above 3 starters because I think that Peterson will probably be better suited in relief than Imanaga. Rolliston will be used frequently and Caleb T. will probably be used also. Zefferjahn, Palencia, Civale, and Thornton will be the most used right handers. Neither Assad or Rea should be used unless it's a blowout or a starter leaves early. #8 Anyone that suggests that Webb can/will get back on track for the playoffs is dreaming.

I know I've been very critical of Counsell, but I seriously doubt that he will be leaving. Although I don't agree with his managing style, he appears to have the support of the players and upper management and I don't see any great advantage to cutting him loose while still paying him an above average salary for a baseball manager. If the Cubs don't win the World Series the 'injury to pitchers excuse' gives both Counsell & Hoyer a 'Get Out of Jail Free Card' . The franchise is financially healthy, the owner is happy [ at least I would assume ] and interest in the Cubs is [ thanks to PCA ] about as high as it's ever been. There is more to being a successful manager than just handling pitchers or making lineup and playing decisions. Counsell doesn't make pitching decisions without input from a pitching coach and game management decisions from his bench coach. His overall winning record is good but a glaring omission on his resume is success in playoffs. We were all happy in 2015 when the Cubs brought in Joe Madden who changed the culture and got the Cubs across the finish line to win the World Series even though he choked on his pitching decisions by overusing Aroldis Chapman in games 6 & 7. Baseball can be a strange game, and sometimes stupid decisions work out. There is still plenty of baseball to be played and who knows what will happen when the playoffs start. Hopefully we make the playoffs and Counsell learns from his mistakes and we go on a long playoff run.

I walked away from the game at the start of the bottom of the 8th, I wanted to scream at Counsell because I knew he was going to have Boyd start the 8th due to a left-handed batter for the Brewers. This game was being played similar to a playoff game. Murphy took out his starter in the top of the 5th even though he was pitching well. Most playoff games are decided by the bullpens in today's baseball. The days of starters throwing complete games are almost as rare as no-hitters. The Brewers have one of the top bullpens in baseball and we have - let's not go there. Anyway, Boyd pitched great for 7 innings but I would have pulled him before the start of the 8th. If the Cubs are going anywhere in the playoffs, they need to find a couple of bullpen arms to use. Most managers talk about trying to put their players in a position to succeed which Counsell seems to have forgot. Most relievers in today's baseball prefer to start the inning rather than come in and put out a fire. Bringing in a reliever in the high leverage situation that we were in [ 2nd & 3rd no outs with Churio batting ] is extremely tough for any reliever. When Boyd walked the leadoff hitter after being ahead in the count, shouldn't that have been a huge sign that Boyd was getting tired and it was time to bring in a fresh arm [ actually a new pitcher should have started the inning ] but once you left him in for the first batter why not change pitchers after the walk ? If Zeferjahn's comes in with a runner on first and no one out, why would we be afraid that the Brewers pinch hit ? Isn't it more likely that the Brewers sacrifice the runner into scoring position and we face the top of the order with one out and a runner on second ? I just grit my teeth that the Cubs brain trust can't understand how important a strong bullpen is. We still have a couple of weeks to try and get Palencia [ and his confidence ] back in form and Zeferjahn at times looks good but there is no help coming [ maybe Cabrera can help ] and we need to put our bullpen arms in a position to succeed. We also can't afford to throw away winnable games because we're afraid to bring in a fresher arm when one of our starters begin to tire. There is a reason why teams carry 13 pitchers.

Ramirez will have a role in the post season; the fact that he is a switch hitter as well having some defensive versatility demands that he will see playing time. Will he start all 3 games in the first round ? No, and he may not start any of the 3 but as the series goes on [ hopefully ] he will get more playing time and he will probably appear in each game as a pinch hitter, base runner, or defensive replacement late.

Boyd was gassed. He barely got through the 5th inning. On a warm night he gave us all he had. If you push him too far when fatigue is setting in, the chance of injuries [ or at least going off form ] increases drastically. We need him for the rest of September and the playoffs. I know our bullpen sucks, but the days of starting pitchers throwing complete games have long gone. The dangerous teams in the playoffs have great bullpens [ think S.D. and Brewers ] but we don't, and we didn't make a serious effort to upgrade our bullpen at the trade deadline.

Out of curiosity : Could this be the first time the winner of MVP award not have been a starting player on the All-Star team ? Either NL or AL ?

The # 1 job for Counsell the rest of the season is to find a suitable closer. Playoff games place a premium on bullpens; starters go 6-7 innings and having at least 2 quality setup pitchers [ more is even better ] is ideal for success. Counsell did an admirable job of mixing and matching with the bullpen arms he had available through the first 2/3's of the season but the inability of Hoyer to upgrade the bullpen will in all probability prove fatal when the playoffs start. Granted both Gausman and Holmes have been an enormous help but the only true reliever they brought in was Zeferjahn and his performance [ at least so far ] answers the question : with his 'stuff' why wasn't he serving in the closer's role for the Angels ? It appears that Ben Brown will not make a heroic recovery, Palencia doesn't look healthy, and dreaming that Shelby Miller will be the panacea is definitely a stretch. Virtually all of the bullpen arms have been 'getting lit up' lately and that is not surprising considering how much they overachieved earlier in the year. But baseball is baseball; did anyone predict that PCA would be playing at the level he has this year ? Surprises are part of baseball, let's hope they become pleasant surprises !

Where in the world are you compiling this information on arm angle, run ride, etc. ? You mentioned that Chris Sale, Josh Hadar and Jacob Misiorowski have more fluidity that allows them to generate more velocity on their pitches. While fluidity may be a factor I don't think we should discount their physical size [ height and arm length when extended ] . Their pitches do not travel as far because they are released closer to home plate than normal pitchers. And they arrive at home plate even quicker. But back to Palencia. I thought that he worked too hard before the season getting his arm [ and body ] into shape for the World Baseball Classic. He was outstanding during March as the closer that saved the title for his home country. I anticipated a drop off in his performance at the start of the regular season [ cold weather doesn't help ] and he eventually ended up on the DL not once but twice. The length of his last DL stint as well as his performance when activated makes me believe he is still not 100% and still dealing with discomfort in either his shoulder or elbow. I believe that he is still trying to fight through the discomfort and work himself into shape to be effective. He is a warrior and will give it a go until the results tell him it's time to shut down for the year. I agree with you that although I hope he can regain effectiveness, I anticipate that he won't get back to his 100% self until next year. One thing that I noticed is that when he is nursing his body when he comes into pitch [ due to soreness, pain, stiffness, etc. ] , he is sweating profusely. Something to watch for in his next few appearances. Question though : Do you think the change in arm angle is due to pain, soreness, or stiffness ? Are the Cub hurlers versed in their arm angles and the movement on their pitches ?

I would certainly hesitate to be critical of PCA and his defense and I have NO problem with how he played the ball in each of the situations shown. I would also like to point out that most outfielders are more aggressive in chasing balls in high leverage situations. Sensational catches in late inning close games are more valuable than risking injury diving at a ball early in the game. The 3 examples shown were in the 5th inning, 2nd inning, and 4th inning with the outcome of the game unlikely to be determined by whether he made a sensational catch or played the ball safely. I would note that I would prefer to see PCA a little bit more aggressive on the bases than what he has shown recently. I believe it was in the 3rd inning of a 1 run game that he singled to right field with either one out or no outs. Not only did he not attempt to steal but he did not take an aggressive lead or even fake a possible steal. It didn't matter because Suzki grounded into a fielder's choice but Busch followed with a Homer. If I was a scout at that game, I would note that he may be sore [ banged up or less than 100% ] and not the sb threat he usually would be unless it was later in the game and in a more important situation. If that is the case, it does land a little bit more credence to the author's [ Trueblood ] opinion that he may be less aggressive about diving for balls because he is less than 100%. PCA is HUMAN and not immune to fatigue, injuries, etc., and I would prefer that Counsell give him a day or two off down the stretch. He needs to be fresher for the stretch and the playoffs [ hopefully ] .

Interesting, I'm sure this will play out in September before the playoffs. I would suggest that Cabrera follow Imanaga instead of Boyd. Imanaga is the ultimate soft tosser in the entire league whereas Boyd has been known to hit 94-95 mph. Also we need to look at the teams that are virtually certain to be in the playoffs. Two of them appear to be weaker against left-handed pitching - Philly and the Dodgers. The Brewers and the Braves are more balanced in their lineup as would be the Padres and the Diamondbacks or at least no apparent disadvantage against lefty pitching.