Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[BobbyD3]

Gents, if Peralta is "really" throwing 98mph in the 6th inning (hot gun talk aside), can we assume that he will likely be atop the Cubs '27 wish list?  For the record, I saw him top out at 99, and I immediately went to Fangraphs to confirm what I saw.  This velo spike is unusual to say the least, especially based upon what Fangraphs is reporting.  If this is real, sign me up.

[Rcal10]

49 minutes ago, BobbyD3 said:

Gents, if Peralta is "really" throwing 98mph in the 6th inning (hot gun talk aside), can we assume that he will likely be atop the Cubs '27 wish list?  For the record, I saw him top out at 99, and I immediately went to Fangraphs to confirm what I saw.  This velo spike is unusual to say the least, especially based upon what Fangraphs is reporting.  If this is real, sign me up.

Not sure the Cubs will sign him, but he did make himself some money this game. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, BobbyD3 said:

Gents, if Peralta is "really" throwing 98mph in the 6th inning (hot gun talk aside), can we assume that he will likely be atop the Cubs '27 wish list?  For the record, I saw him top out at 99, and I immediately went to Fangraphs to confirm what I saw.  This velo spike is unusual to say the least, especially based upon what Fangraphs is reporting.  If this is real, sign me up.

I checked his game logs.  He was throwing just as hard his previous start, and his velo was almost as fast his last couple of regular season starts.

But I'm weary of the stats for any seasons for any player while in a Brewers uniform.  His stock has risen though.

[mul21]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

I checked his game logs.  He was throwing just as hard his previous start, and his velo was almost as fast his last couple of regular season starts.

But I'm weary of the stats for any seasons for any player while in a Brewers uniform.  His stock has risen though.

The Rays altered his arm slot and had him throw the slider less.  Mechanical tweaks explain most of the resurgence and the drop in slider usage explains most of the rest of it.  As usual, the Mets are terrible at everything.

[Bertz]

Love seeing the extra velo but I'm not really convinced anything the Rays have done with Peralta has made him better.  His K/BB/GB numbers aren't collectively better with the Rays.  He's given up fewer dongs and had better sequencing.  The fact that his barrels are up and his K's are down definitely makes both of those look like luck rather than skill.

[chibears55]

Given Hoyers history since taking control of the Cubs, any pitcher looking for more than 3-4 years will likely not get an offer from him.

Skubal, Peralta, King are all likely not going to be on Hoyers list if theyre set on getting long term deals.

I think we'll see Gausman, Peterson, and or Holmes being offered deals to return before he makes anyone outside an offer.

If they go Outside, itll be someone like  Flaherty, Buehler, Martinez, Bieber guys that'll take 4 or less years.

Maybe a trade could net them a solid controlled starter.

As of now these 6 are their SP going into Spring Training.

Steele, Assad, Garrett, Brown, Cabrera, and Wicks 

[Bertz]

There's a really good chance no one on the market this year besides Skubal clears Alex Bregman money.  We don't have to do this annual song and dance.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

There's a really good chance no one on the market this year besides Skubal clears Alex Bregman money.  We don't have to do this annual song and dance.

Regarding Skubal, I was taking it as an almost a given he'd sign with the Dodgers after their WS parade.  However, given the now very real possibility the Dodgers are going to be swept out of the NLCS along with their championship window starting to close.  I'm not so certain.  Though, I think a safe assumption he's looking for big years and money.

Edited Wednesday at 06:45 PM by gflore34

[mul21]

19 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Regarding Skubal, I was taking it as an almost a given he'd sign with the Dodgers after their WS parade.  However, given the now very real possibility the Dodgers are going to be swept out of the NLCS along with their championship window starting to close.  I'm not so certain.  Though, I think a safe assumption he's looking for big years and money.

If I was betting on it, I'd put a strong play on the field vs the Dodgers for him.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

25 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Regarding Skubal, I was taking it as an almost a given he'd sign with the Dodgers after their WS parade.  However, given the now very real possibility the Dodgers are going to be swept out of the NLCS along with their championship window starting to close.  I'm not so certain.  Though, I think a safe assumption he's looking for big years and money.

If I had to pick one of these happening: Brewers complete the sweep or the Dodgers win the series, I might still pick the Dodgers. Many of my friends are acting like the Dodgers have already been eliminated. I think this series is still far from over. 

[gflore34]

13 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

If I had to pick one of these happening: Brewers complete the sweep or the Dodgers win the series, I might still pick the Dodgers. Many of my friends are acting like the Dodgers have already been eliminated. I think this series is still far from over. 

Big factor is Ohtani, it's pretty obvious he's still hurting, really, a shell of himself.  If I'm looking correctly he hasn't hit an HR in nearly a month - 8/18 at Colorado - don't believe he has an extra base hit this series.  In fact he has 3 singles thus far in the PS.

Edited Wednesday at 07:13 PM by gflore34

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Given Hoyers history since taking control of the Cubs, any pitcher looking for more than 3-4 years will likely not get an offer from him.

Skubal, Peralta, King are all likely not going to be on Hoyers list if theyre set on getting long term deals.

I think we'll see Gausman, Peterson, and or Holmes being offered deals to return before he makes anyone outside an offer.

If they go Outside, itll be someone like  Flaherty, Buehler, Martinez, Bieber guys that'll take 4 or less years.

Maybe a trade could net them a solid controlled starter.

As of now these 6 are their SP going into Spring Training.

Steele, Assad, Garrett, Brown, Cabrera, and Wicks 

Skubal is obviously a long shot. But I think you could be a fan of my team and say that. Even the Dodgers. But I do think they will be aggressive at the top end with guys like King and Peralta or a Japanese pitcher. None comes with a QO attached. I think that is more an issue than stopping the years at 4 on a pitcher. And, besides that, King and/or Peralta might only get 4 year deals. I do agree with you that they will talk to Peterson and Holmes. And they should. I doubt Gausman is someone they go after. I can see one upper end pitcher, one guy like Peterson/Bieber/Bubic/Buehler and one trade. If not a trade maybe one other guy slightly about Peterson range but not at Peralta/King/Rogers numbers. I don’t expect them to go after Rogers because if the QO. Flaherty, Holmes, Mahle area. 
If they do somehow get Skubal, who I am not ruling out, maybe they add someone either in the Peterson level or the next tier and then trade for a 3rd starter.  I think this will be a fairly active off season. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Regarding Skubal, I was taking it as an almost a given he'd sign with the Dodgers after their WS parade.  However, given the now very real possibility the Dodgers are going to be swept out of the NLCS along with their championship window starting to close.  I'm not so certain.  Though, I think a safe assumption he's looking for big years and money.

Skubal probably signs after the new CBA is signed.  Dodgers will probably go after him if the new CBA makes it still possible.  Ohtani may not pitch next year and Betts/Freeman are probably age-regressing.

[Stratos]

58 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Skubal is obviously a long shot. But I think you could be a fan of my team and say that. Even the Dodgers. But I do think they will be aggressive at the top end with guys like King and Peralta or a Japanese pitcher. None comes with a QO attached. I think that is more an issue than stopping the years at 4 on a pitcher. And, besides that, King and/or Peralta might only get 4 year deals. I do agree with you that they will talk to Peterson and Holmes. And they should. I doubt Gausman is someone they go after. I can see one upper end pitcher, one guy like Peterson/Bieber/Bubic/Buehler and one trade. If not a trade maybe one other guy slightly about Peterson range but not at Peralta/King/Rogers numbers. I don’t expect them to go after Rogers because if the QO. Flaherty, Holmes, Mahle area. 
If they do somehow get Skubal, who I am not ruling out, maybe they add someone either in the Peterson level or the next tier and then trade for a 3rd starter.  I think this will be a fairly active off season. 

I think Peralta will demand an.opt-out.  Lots of possible variance on Peralta and he won't come cheap, I have doubts the Cubs sign him.

I don't even think the Cubs need a huge correction on the SP they target.  Just would be nice to get 1 or 2 top end types along with their usual signings.  They did get Stroman before the last lockout so I think Jed will be swimming in the deeper waters for SP.

I suspect most of the quality SP besides Skubal will be signed before the lockout again so coaches etc can get to work on them.  Skubal doesn't need any help anyways lol.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I think Peralta will demand an.opt-out.  Lots of possible variance on Peralta and he won't come cheap, I have doubts the Cubs sign him.

I don't even think the Cubs need a huge correction on the SP they target.  Just would be nice to get 1 or 2 top end types along with their usual signings.  They did get Stroman before the last lockout so I think Jed will be swimming in the deeper waters for SP.

I suspect most of the quality SP besides Skubal will be signed before the lockout again so coaches etc can get to work on them.  Skubal doesn't need any help anyways lol.

Why do you think Peralta will come with opt outs? Do you think he will be lowballed so want to be able to get out? I think he will get a 4 or 5 year deal. So I don’t see the need for opt outs. But if he is lowballed I would absolutely expect the Cubs to be part of that scenerio. I think some fans exaggerate on the low end, the Cubs off season activity. Not you, specifically.
I think what Peralta has going for him is he doesn’t come with a QO and Counsell has managed him before. If Counsell likes him I think he will be aggressively pursued by the Cubs and if they have to go 5 years, they will. I feel the same way with King or the pitcher from Japan. If they have to go 5 years, they will. None of them cost them a draft pick. And, they might not have to go 5 years. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Skubal is obviously a long shot. But I think you could be a fan of my team and say that. Even the Dodgers. But I do think they will be aggressive at the top end with guys like King and Peralta or a Japanese pitcher. None comes with a QO attached. I think that is more an issue than stopping the years at 4 on a pitcher. And, besides that, King and/or Peralta might only get 4 year deals. I do agree with you that they will talk to Peterson and Holmes. And they should. I doubt Gausman is someone they go after. I can see one upper end pitcher, one guy like Peterson/Bieber/Bubic/Buehler and one trade. If not a trade maybe one other guy slightly about Peterson range but not at Peralta/King/Rogers numbers. I don’t expect them to go after Rogers because if the QO. Flaherty, Holmes, Mahle area. 
If they do somehow get Skubal, who I am not ruling out, maybe they add someone either in the Peterson level or the next tier and then trade for a 3rd starter.  I think this will be a fairly active off season. 

He might offer 5 to one of the younger Japanese Starters, but ill be super shocked and Surprised if he does with Peralta and King and if so, without a team option.

both in their 30s and it would be out of the norm for Hoyer

[mk49]

I think Skubal will sign before the lockout.

Taira should be a good fit for the Cubs.  GB% is pretty high, and he gave up only 5 HR's in 200 innings (yeah, I know they're in a dead ball era, but still pretty good).  He'll be 27 soon, and I'm thinking he would take a 4 years deal.  I'm not interested in the other Japanese pitcher, though he'll be a lot cheaper.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

38 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I think Skubal will sign before the lockout.

Taira should be a good fit for the Cubs.  GB% is pretty high, and he gave up only 5 HR's in 200 innings (yeah, I know they're in a dead ball era, but still pretty good).  He'll be 27 soon, and I'm thinking he would take a 4 years deal.  I'm not interested in the other Japanese pitcher, though he'll be a lot cheaper.

I need to see an actual breakdown of Taira by someone by Lance Brodzowski because I don't trust any NPB stats

[mk49]

Just now, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I need to see an actual breakdown of Taira by someone by Lance Brodzowski because I don't trust any NPB stats

Because of the poor performance by Imai?  

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I need to see an actual breakdown of Taira by someone by Lance Brodzowski because I don't trust any NPB stats

I've got one in the can. Website will post it when we get more into FA mode. 

I'm not Lance but it should give a fairly comprehensive breakdown. I spent hours digging on research, videos, data, etc. I believe it's over 2,000 words. 

There are good things. There are some flaws. Ultimately I think the two sides have a ton of common ground and expect there to be mutual interest. 

We should trust NPB statistics. We just need context. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just now, mk49 said:

Because of the poor performance by Imai?  

Nothing to do with Imai. It's like looking at a guy's AAA numbers and expecting them to translate to MLB.

[Jason Ross]

If anyone wants to hear straight from the source, Taima has his own YouTube. 

https://youtube.com/@taira_kaima?si=euHs4_13Wi-3zMsa

He's a pretty cool dude. He thinks a lot about baseball. You can get a decent idea on what he thinks about pitching and his philosophy from it. Very open. It's also translated so you can follow along. 

Worth a dive if you're bored. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

Assuming the lockout doesn’t bring a salary cap (personally think it won’t and really hope it doesn’t), I hope the front office/ownership is shamed into action on the pitching front by how poor the performance was, they effectively torched an elite defence and an all time individual season by running out a pitching staff on par with teams that lose 95-100 games. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I need to see an actual breakdown of Taira by someone by Lance Brodzowski because I don't trust any NPB stats

FWIW ZiPS has mostly nailed the big guys from the past several years.  Notably it differed from the market on Shota, Murakami, and Imai in the right direction. 

If anything I think the best path forward might be closer to only trusting performance data and ignoring the scouting data because macro things like the different ball make them not applicable.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Why do you think Peralta will come with opt outs? Do you think he will be lowballed so want to be able to get out? I think he will get a 4 or 5 year deal. So I don’t see the need for opt outs. But if he is lowballed I would absolutely expect the Cubs to be part of that scenerio. I think some fans exaggerate on the low end, the Cubs off season activity. Not you, specifically.
I think what Peralta has going for him is he doesn’t come with a QO and Counsell has managed him before. If Counsell likes him I think he will be aggressively pursued by the Cubs and if they have to go 5 years, they will. I feel the same way with King or the pitcher from Japan. If they have to go 5 years, they will. None of them cost them a draft pick. And, they might not have to go 5 years. 

Well Peralta is a possibility for the Cubs for sure.  I say an opt-out because if I were him and had a off year and was still in prime age i'd want an opt-out, especially with the very recent velo bump 

I have no idea how much teams will pay.  He's a weird case.