Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[ILMindState]

14 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

This is so tiring. Why can’t we score a lot of runs in the playoffs? Because the average amount of runs scored goes down? But not for the teams we’re going to play, apparently?

Not if they go up against our pitching. You need clutch pitching to win in the playoffs. There’s not 1 person in the pen you can trust to put into a high leverage situation with runners on base late in the game. There’s not even anyone you can trust to close out a game with a 3 run lead. You can’t realistically expect the Cubs to average 8 runs a game against the Brewers or Dodgers pitching staff. 

[PackLandVA]

46 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I can’t remember the last time they had a 1-2-3 9th inning with a lead,

September 3 against Milwaukee and September 4 at Florida. And they were 1/10th of an inch (ABS) from three games in a row less than two weeks ago.

[PackLandVA]

Cubs "clinch" number is 6, right?

[bukie]

7 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

Cubs "clinch" number is 6, right?

5, they win the tiebreaker with both Arizona and San Diego.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Diamondbacks currently losing 4-2 in the 5th, so it could be 4

Edited 12 hours ago by Tangled Up in Plaid

[bukie]

Cubs win today means they clinch a better record than the Cardinals.

[Rcal10]

51 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Not if they go up against our pitching. You need clutch pitching to win in the playoffs. There’s not 1 person in the pen you can trust to put into a high leverage situation with runners on base late in the game. There’s not even anyone you can trust to close out a game with a 3 run lead. You can’t realistically expect the Cubs to average 8 runs a game against the Brewers or Dodgers pitching staff. 

Again, why do they have to score 8. Stop acting like they can’t win games. I agree I am not confident in the pen. But they can win. If they don’t it will most likely be the pen. But please stop acting like there is no way they can win in the playoffs. This isn’t just you. I am talking about all the people who know they can’t win.

[Funky-daddy]

Breggy having his 3rd best season by bWar and 4th best by fWar 

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

This is so tiring. Why can’t we score a lot of runs in the playoffs? Because the average amount of runs scored goes down? But not for the teams we’re going to play, apparently?

I mean, generally speaking, the Cubs are going to face tougher pitching staffs in the playoffs than they have faced in the regular season, right? Meanwhile, the teams the Cubs play are going to face one of the worst, if not the worst, pitching staff. So yeah, if the Phillies (just to pick a team) scored X runs on average against all the other 29 teams, where they faced both good and bad pitchers, I'd expect them to average more runs when facing only bad pitchers.

[We Got The Whole 9]

AZ just lost on a caught stealing lol

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Diamondbacks had the tying run on base in the 9th but he got thrown out trying to steal second for the final out. Magic number is 4.

[soccer10k]

DBacks lose so magic number down to 4 with 9 to play.

Cubs go 3-6, Arizona has to go 9-0 to pass us.

[Soul]

Yep, Marlins led all 3 games into the 9th inning and wound up taking two of them.  AZ now plays NYY, COL, and SD to finish the year.  I think their magic carpet ride is over.

Edited 11 hours ago by Soul

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

I mean, generally speaking, the Cubs are going to face tougher pitching staffs in the playoffs than they have faced in the regular season, right? Meanwhile, the teams the Cubs play are going to face one of the worst, if not the worst, pitching staff. So yeah, if the Phillies (just to pick a team) scored X runs on average against all the other 29 teams, where they faced both good and bad pitchers, I'd expect them to average more runs when facing only bad pitchers.

But the Phillies era was based on facing bad offensive teams and good offensive teams, wouldn’t it stand to reason if they only played the best team in baseball they would give up more runs? 
BTW, the Cubs defense actually turns the worst staff based on WAR to a middle of the pack pitching staff. Isn’t the most important thing run prevention? If the Cubs prevent runs because of a great defense covering for a poor staff, does it really matter, as long as they win? 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Caleb Williams and PCA both maturing in front of our eyes at the same time is something else.

Oh yeah, PCA is chasing down Schwarber for NL HR champ. 

Edited 10 hours ago by NorthsideAvenger

[soccer10k]

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But the Phillies era was based on facing bad offensive teams and good offensive teams, wouldn’t it stand to reason if they only played the best team in baseball they would give up more runs? 
BTW, the Cubs defense actually turns the worst staff based on WAR to a middle of the pack pitching staff. Isn’t the most important thing run prevention? If the Cubs prevent runs because of a great defense covering for a poor staff, does it really matter, as long as they win? 

The question was why do we expect the Cubs to score fewer runs in the playoffs than they did in the regular season while we expect our opponents to score more. And the answer is obvious.

Does that mean both of those things will happen? Of course not. That's not how small samples work. But we know our pitching staff is awful. And our opponents will only face that awful staff. Whereas the teams we're going to face in the playoffs don't have awful pitching. By fWAR, LA is 1, Phi is 2, Mil is 4, Atl is 10, SD is 15. B-R has all five teams in the top-12 (Cubs are 26th). FIP has the Cubs at 26th. SD is 19th while the other four are in the top-13. So unless we face SD, we're going to be facing a pitching staff that is better than the average pitching staff we faced all year.

EDIT: Our defense helps for sure, but there's no defense for bombs hit into the bleachers.

Edited 10 hours ago by soccer10k

[Gjfificifjdej]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

But the Phillies era was based on facing bad offensive teams and good offensive teams, wouldn’t it stand to reason if they only played the best team in baseball they would give up more runs? 
BTW, the Cubs defense actually turns the worst staff based on WAR to a middle of the pack pitching staff. Isn’t the most important thing run prevention? If the Cubs prevent runs because of a great defense covering for a poor staff, does it really matter, as long as they win? 

Theres no way to defend against giving up Hiroshima bombs every other AB. 

[Geographyhater8888]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Again, why do they have to score 8. Stop acting like they can’t win games. I agree I am not confident in the pen. But they can win. If they don’t it will most likely be the pen. But please stop acting like there is no way they can win in the playoffs. This isn’t just you. I am talking about all the people who know they can’t win.

If you’re not confident in the pen, which is a massive problem in a playoff series when everyone trims the fat off of their pitching staff and increases the work load of their top arms, then how many runs do they need to score? 5? 6? 7? 
 

The pitching staff as is will be what we see in October for the most part and Counsell is still throwing darts hoping for something to stick. They can win, as long as they score lots and lots of runs.

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Papa Cub]

6 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Speak for yourself. Our amazing offense was awesome, our incredible MVP was even more awesome. 
 

seriously, beating a good team 8-4 or 8-5 or whatever is basically the game plan for this team winning playoff games. 

Good point - I was just in bitch mode with the pitching woes.

Offense was great, and so was Shota

[Jason Ross]

Some people here need to realize it works both ways. Yes, the Cubs offense will face better pitching., but the other team will face better hitting than they face normally, too. The Cubs have been the best offense against some of the best pitching all year. 

Do you all not realize how bad Philadelphia's offense is? Dansby Swanson's 96 wRC+, the guy this forum has tried to DFA every summer has a higher wRC+ better than everyone in their opening day except for two hitters.

Ian Happ, the guy this forum has tried to run out of the city for five months, groans every time he strikes out or hits a ground ball would be *comfortably* their third best hitter right now (as Arraez has not been good since the deadline). He'd almost assuredly be hitting cleanup or second for that team. Every night. You dislike him, but have you seen how terrible Trea Turner has been? He's essentially Ian Happ but everything is worse (except for Ks) now. 

I get it. The Cubs pitching sucks on ice (and we can play the game above but backwards, I know) but y'all, the Phillies have the third worst wRC+ in baseball on merit. Their hitting is our pitching. Stop doom bonering. Everything flows both ways. Teams are not used to facing the Cubs every night, either. We don't have to do this song and dance. The Cubs just took two of three against the NL East leading Braves. The Phillies aren't likely to catch them, the Cubs beat them a bunch this year already, and people here are *still* ready to waive the white flag. 

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Some people here need to realize it works both ways. Yes, the Cubs offense will face better pitching., but the other team will face better hitting than they face normally, too. The Cubs have been the best offense against some of the best pitching all year. 

Do you all not realize how bad Philadelphia's offense is? Dansby Swanson's 96 wRC+, the guy this forum has tried to DFA every summer has a higher wRC+ better than everyone in their opening day except for two hitters.

Ian Happ, the guy this forum has tried to run out of the city for five months, groans every time he strikes out or hits a ground ball would be *comfortably* their fourth best hitter and nearly their third. He'd almost assuredly be hitting cleanup or second for that team. Every night. You dislike him, but have you seen how terrible Trea Turner has been? He's essentially Ian Happ but everything is worse (except for Ks) now. 

I get it. The Cubs pitching sucks on ice, but y'all, the Phillies have the third worst wRC+ in baseball on merit. Their hitting is our pitching. Stop doom bonering. Everything flows both ways. Teams are not used to facing the Cubs every night, either. 

It’s not the Phillies that worry me. The Cubs are more than capable of beating them in a best of 3. A lot would have to go right to get past Milwaukee and LA however.

[Geographyhater8888]

It’s so nice to see PCA adjusting to pitchers attacking him up in the zone and in with high heat. 

Seiya is rolling over pitches lately, not a good time for a Seiya slump. I hope this is temporary.

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’s not the Phillies that worry me. The Cubs are more than capable of beating them in a best of 3. A lot would have to go right to get past Milwaukee and LA however.

Fair. They're very good teams. But that's baseball. Every year a team who's very good has a clunker of a five game set. The Cubs offense getting hot for a few games, or more, wouldn't be a shocking outcome, though. So while I wouldn't bet my life savings on it, the Cubs are more than capable of finding three wins out of five against anyone. 

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Fair. They're very good teams. But that's baseball. Every year a team who's very good has a clunker of a five game set. The Cubs offense getting hot for a few games, or more, wouldn't be a shocking outcome, though. So while I wouldn't bet my life savings on it, the Cubs are more than capable of finding three wins out of five against anyone. 

Their ceiling as a team is much higher than last October in my opinion and there’s similarities to the 2023 Rangers and last years Bluejays, it’s just too bad that the national league is a buzz saw and that leaves little margin for error with such a flawed pitching staff.

The lack of star power and the black hole that’s been third base from 23-25 have been solved to compliment an already deep lineup full of complimentary bats.

Edited 4 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

Wait a minute.  Did the Cubs just win a game without allowing a HR?  A Shota start no less?  I've seen everything now, cross that off my bucket list.  Seriously, Shota was really good, it was great to see.  AZ is done, stick a fork in them, only remaining question is WC seeding.  Never took AZ seriously, despite the annoying way they took 2 last time vs. the Cubs.  Far too flawed, more so than the Cubs, Phillies and Padres.

Edited 2 hours ago by gflore34