Cubs (Imanaga) vs Brewers (Ashby): 10/6/25, 8:08pm

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

f Hoerner's glove was on par with his bat, he would be a 2 WAR player. You could plug anyone into his spot and expect equal results because the average starting player accumulates around 2 WAR a year. But since his glove is so damn good, it increases his worth by 200%+. That, my friend, is VALUE.

What offensive metric/statistic do you prefer so that we can compare Nico's output to what the rest of the league is doing at second base?

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

What offensive metric/statistic do you prefer so that we can compare Nico's output to what the rest of the league is doing at second base?

Use wRC+. I dont care.

I can do it for you. This year he was 10/22. 2024 he was 9/16. 2023 he was 9/17. 2022 he played SS and was 9/22. 2021 he didnt qualify.

His batting value from 22-25 is 50.5 percentile. He is an average bat. His value is coming from his glove.

I'm not saying he is a bad hitter. I'm saying a team is paying Nico Hoerner for his glove. That is where he is going to earn his contract.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Use wRC+. I dont care.

I can do it for you. This year he was 10/22. 2024 he was 9/17. 2023 he was 9/17. 2022 he played SS and was 9/22. 2021 he didnt qualify.

His batting value from 22-25 is 50.5 percentile. He is an average bat. His value is coming from his glove.

I'm not saying he is a bad hitter. I'm saying a team is paying Nico Hoerner for his glove. That is where he is going to earn his contract.

The league wide average for players coded as 2Bs was a 92 wRC. For players actually played 2B, it was 90. Nico had a 109. He was also the best baserunner.

Eliminating non-qualifying players from your scale makes it essentially worthless. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The league wide average for players coded as 2Bs was a 92 wRC. For players actually played 2B, it was 90. Nico had a 109. He was also the best baserunner.

Eliminating non-qualifying players from your scale makes it essentially worthless. 

Cool, fantastic, great. Meanwhile if you took away Nico's glove you are looking at comparables like Jeff McNeil who is out there getting 4/50 and you are talking about Nico's market at 6/130.

[soccer10k]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cool, fantastic, great. Meanwhile if you took away Nico's glove you are looking at comparables like Jeff McNeil who is out there getting 4/50 and you are talking about Nico's market at 6/130.

Yes, if you take away all the good things a player does, he actually sucks!

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, soccer10k said:

Yes, if you take away all the good things a player does, he actually sucks!

Oh, so you agree with me that the majority of his value is in the glove. Awesome. Glad we could come to this understanding.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cuzi

[Brian707]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cool, fantastic, great. Meanwhile if you took away Nico's glove you are looking at comparables like Jeff McNeil who is out there getting 4/50 and you are talking about Nico's market at 6/130.

If you took away Michael Jordan's jump shot he would be Pete Myers!

[Stratos]

35 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Yes, it is. You dont seem to understand the definition of value.

If Hoerner's glove was on par with his bat, he would be a 2 WAR player. You could plug anyone into his spot and expect equal results because the average starting player accumulates around 2 WAR a year. But since his glove is so damn good, it increases his worth by 200%+. That, my friend, is VALUE.

wRC+ doesn't factor in stolen bases or baserunning.  He's been an above average offensive player each of the last 4 seasons, contributing on average about 9 offensive runs above the average player per year.  With average defense he'd be somewhere around a 3.0 WAR player.  Adding the glove he's in the mid 4's

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cool, fantastic, great. Meanwhile if you took away Nico's glove you are looking at comparables like Jeff McNeil who is out there getting 4/50 and you are talking about Nico's market at 6/130.

McNeil signed in January 2023 and the notes say that he avoided arbitration, which means at least one year of team control was bought out. 2021 has his contract as just being 'renewed', so likely his 4/50 deal bought out two years of team control, so not really a good comparison in terms of contract value. His take home pay for the two years that were post arbitration were $15.75m.

[Irrelevant Dude]

10 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

If you took away Michael Jordan's jump shot he would be Pete Myers!

You would have to take away a whole lot more than his jump shot to get to Pete Myers.

[Stratos]

13 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cool, fantastic, great. Meanwhile if you took away Nico's glove you are looking at comparables like Jeff McNeil who is out there getting 4/50 and you are talking about Nico's market at 6/130.

Fans are biased towards offense and especially HR.   They're still in love with Schwarber meanwhile Nico and Swanson are massive underrated on this team.  Literally zero difference in getting a hit vs taking one away with the glove, it just feels different.  If Nico was an average defender and hitting 4.5 WAR worth of HR there'd be Nico jerseys everywhere.  He's the best 2B in baseball.

[Derwood]

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Fans are biased towards offense and especially HR.   They're still in love with Schwarber meanwhile Nico and Swanson are massive underrated on this team.  Literally zero difference in getting a hit vs taking one away with the glove, it just feels different.  If Nico was an average defender and hitting 4.5 WAR worth of HR there'd be Nico jerseys everywhere.  He's the best 2B in baseball.

I'm biased towards winning.

I believe you can rearrange the deck chairs and reduce the overall production at 2B and put that into pitching and be a better playoff team.

Of course, if the Cubs simply decide they dont want Kyle Tuckers on their team then it probably doesn't matter.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cuzi

[We Got The Whole 9]

41 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Shocking level of shittiness and it stretches across so many different groups of players. If they lose tomorrow at least end this streak please.

[Stratos]

35 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'm biased towards winning.

I believe you can rearrange the deck chairs and reduce the overall production at 2B and put that into pitching and be a better playoff team.

Of course, if the Cubs simply decide they dont want Kyle Tuckers on their team then it probably doesn't matter.

If we get 2 WAR worse at 2B and get 2 WAR better at SP I don't think it makes a difference at all.  A SP in the playoffs only throws 4 IP now apparently anyways so their value is even less in the playoffs.   Our SP just happened to be performing terrible this round, but Boyd and Shota aren't bad pitchers, they're above average but struggling at this point in the season.  We do need to acquire another good SP though.

You could resign Nico to a 4 or 5 year deal or whatever.  He's also a SS for teams so we need to keep that in mind.  He could get 5/125 or something like that.   But we can't expect him to remain a 4 WAR player in his 30's.  From age 30-35 I could see something like 4.0 WAR, 3.5, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0.  Would I pay 5/125 for that?  No.

Shaw can play 2B also so we have to find either a 3B or a 2B to replace Nico and finding a 4.5 WAR guy there probably won't happen.

Resigning Tucker probably nabs us around 2.0 extra WAR over whatever his replacement would be over the next 4 seasons or so until he starts to regress.  If the Cubs can figure out a better way to spend 350 million or whatever over the next 8-10 years that nabs us more WAR then do it.  e.g. 1 WAR upgrade at SP and another 1 WAR at another position does that.  They could literally just trade Taillon and replace him by signing an above average FA SP (I consider Taillon an average SP) then sign another above average SP.  Boom 2 WAR.

[Stratos]

29 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Shocking level of shittiness and it stretches across so many different groups of players. If they lose tomorrow at least end this streak please.

Yeah.  Tucker and Happ having a bad playoff, PCA and Shaw look completely overmatched, Swanson is Swanson, Kelly is Kelly.  Pitching bad and hitting bad isn't a good combo.

[Stratos]

Shota is down 1 mph this year and not getting younger.  His K/9 is down significantly and guys teeing off on his FB and inducing a lot of flyballs.   His HR/FB is league average but has done this in a pitcher friendly park that inhibits HR.   Our elite defense obviously makes his other numbers better.

If they want to upgrade their SP beyond league average then they need to look at upgrading guys like Taillon, Imanaga, and Rea.  Being solid isn't good enough.  Shota has 2 more years guaranteed with us plus a player option for 2028 if we decline 2028.   The opt-in this winter is for 2028, there's no team opt out.  He's on the team next year and 2027.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Stratos

[I owned a Suzuki]

I know i am old, but some of the arguments here are so stupid. Hoerner is not what is wrong with this team. He is also far from what is right. Arguing over some extension that probably isnt happening is just stupid. I dont think the current Cubs value him as much as some pro Hoerner people think. So he is not getting extended. End of story

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Shota is down 1 mph this year and not getting younger.  His K/9 is down significantly and guys teeing off on his FB and inducing a lot of flyballs.   His HR/FB is league average but has done this in a pitcher friendly park that inhibits HR.   Our elite defense obviously makes his other numbers better.

If they want to upgrade their SP beyond league average then they need to look at upgrading guys like Taillon, Imanaga, and Rea.  Being solid isn't good enough.  Shota has 2 more years guaranteed with us plus a player option for 2028 if we decline 2028.   The opt-in this winter is for 2028, there's no team opt out.  He's on the team next year and 2027.

Not true. If the Cubs decide not to turn his  contract into a 5/$80m at the end of this season he can opt out. They paid him $23m so far. So if they don’t want him for $57m the next 3 years the would then leave it up to him if he wants to stay in the same 4/$53M he currently has. If he doesn’t he is a FA. 

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I know i am old, but some of the arguments here are so stupid. Hoerner is not what is wrong with this team. He is also far from what is right. Arguing over some extension that probably isnt happening is just stupid. I dont think the current Cubs value him as much as some pro Hoerner people think. So he is not getting extended. End of story

Even if he isn’t extended the Cubs will need to make a decision about him after next season. So it is a discussion worth having. What makes you think the Cubs don’t value him? 

[Jason Ross]

50 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I know i am old, but some of the arguments here are so stupid. Hoerner is not what is wrong with this team. He is also far from what is right. Arguing over some extension that probably isnt happening is just stupid. I dont think the current Cubs value him as much as some pro Hoerner people think. So he is not getting extended. End of story

I actually think Hoerner is one of the most likely players to get extended. We have a profile of players the Cubs believe in: athletic, contact oriented, who are capable in multiple facets of the game. To look at it another way: what player has been signed to the longest (and most lucrative) contract under Hoyer? Dansby Swanson; a ~100 or so wRC+ middle infielder with a strong glove who adds base running value. Even consider the Tucker trade; he's more offensive than Swanson, but the Cubs targeted an OF'er who offers some defensive value (he's not a superstar defensive fielder but holds his own) and is someone who adds base running value. The Cubs have a profile. 

If there's an argument against Hoerner, it may deal with the eventuality that Swanson and Hoerner will eventually overlap in the same category; love Swanson and his glove but he will eventually move off of SS. That said, I think that's an issue you worry about in three years, not now. The Cubs are capable of eating some salary to make a trade if need be. 

Ultimately, I think Hoerner is the kind of player the Cubs like. He's the kind player I suspect the Cubs will attempt to sign longer term. 

[Banks-Williams]

11 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

We can be frustrated without being over reactionary. None of these are fireable offenses and you know that. 

Yes it is a fireable offense.  He alone blew the first two games of the NLDS with his completely crazy decisions  

Assad was pitching better than Boyd, and he was fully rested (5 days).  It was pure lunacy to have the guy who isn’t pitching as well start the game on only 3 days rest.  Further, he used up much of the bullpen, and then started the cookie tosser for game 2.  

The Cubs should win Wednesday’s game, but they’ll likely lose game 4 if Boyd pitches. The Brewers have already seen him, and they’ll be ready. 

Rotation should have been Assad (1), Boyd (2), Taillon (3), Rae and Brown (4) or (5) you pick.  Five solid starters, fully rested with only a couple at-bats per hitter.  

Baseball may not be my occupation, but I can do math.  And I can see.  Like Counsel, I watched all 162 games this year and last. 

[Outshined_One]

[Jason Ross]

35 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

Yes it is a fireable offense.  He alone blew the first two games of the NLDS with his completely crazy decisions  

Assad was pitching better than Boyd, and he was fully rested (5 days).  It was pure lunacy to have the guy who isn’t pitching as well start the game on only 3 days rest.  Further, he used up much of the bullpen, and then started the cookie tosser for game 2.  

The Cubs should win Wednesday’s game, but they’ll likely lose game 4 if Boyd pitches. The Brewers have already seen him, and they’ll be ready. 

Rotation should have been Assad (1), Boyd (2), Taillon (3), Rae and Brown (4) or (5) you pick.  Five solid starters, fully rested with only a couple at-bats per hitter.  

Baseball may not be my occupation, but I can do math.  And I can see.  Like Counsel, I watched all 162 games this year and last. 

Baseball isn't my fulltime occupation either. I'm a middle school teacher who just has a second job where I co-host a podcast and write here. 

But you are making a lot of assertions here which are frankly, very easy to make. "Javier Assad would have done better than Matthew Boyd" is an easy thing to say where you're at - Mr. Assad wasn't even selected for the roster, it's something that has zero way of being disproven. What we know is that a lot of the underlying data on Assad is not good right now and the Cubs didn't consider him one of their 12 best healthy pitchers, and we can assume had Horton been healthy, he wouldn't have been in their top-13 either. Frankly, considering that the Cubs also selected Taylor Rogers in the Padres set, he might not be in their top-14 arms. You can sit here and think you know better than the Cubs, but the reality is that whatever small quibbles we can find, the Cubs have an analytical army behind them. 

I've explained this like six times across different threads, and to you, so I'm not diving back into that. But there are a few other things I'd like to point out that are just, entirely incorrect. For example "further he used up much of the bullpen". This is factually incorrect. After Boyd the Cubs went with Michael Soroka (who threw to two batters the previous series), Aaron Civale (who didn't pitch at all in the previous series) and Ben Brown (who wasn't even on the roster the previous series). That's it. Then they got another day off after! This is just nonsense, it doesn't help your cause to just make things up or invent things. The Cubs walked into Game-2 with only Civale (who was used in a blow out situation) and Ben Brown (only used in a blow out situation) down, and had another off-day scheduled today. The bullpen was operating at nearly full capacity and the only ones down were the ones who the guys who pitch in blowouts. They didn't waste Brad Keller.

Secondly, I've explained multiple times across multiple areas, Shota Imanaga was not some failing SP. Leading up to his last start of the MLB regular season, Imanaga, dating back to July 30th (over 60 innings) Imanaga was running his best K%, his best walk%, an ERA of 3.69 ERA and a 3.79 xFIP. Yes, he got shelled his last start of the year, but event he best pitchers get knocked around. So no, again, not supported by data.

We can't just make things up because it fits our narrative. What it feels like is you're doing this; you're letting your personal frustration allow you to be clouded, and to lash out emotionally. It's easy when we're emotional to create a narrative to fit our frustration (for example, the Cubs "wasted their bullpen in Game 1" to support our already-held-belief that Matthew Boyd shouldn't have started when a quick look at a box score tells us this just isn't true). I get it, I literally stayed up until 12:30 est running live reaction for NSBB after the Cubs sucked last night. I had students this morning. It was a long night - I've got my qualms, my dude. But it's important to move past our frustrations and double check if they're supported by reality or if they're just that - a frustration. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Exactly this. 

I mentioned it last night and I'll just add this on as an adendum to this post here; Ricketts cares a lot about his public perception. He skips Cubs Con when things are bad, he blames anything and everything for his spending, he made David Ross a scapegoat as quicky as he could,  and you can see how Hoyer and the FO have to speak nice (even when it seems odd) about how generous he is. Tom cares about this stuff. He doesn't care enough to blow through to the top ends of the LT, but he does care enough that he wouldn't dare run a $175m payroll, down almost $50m after a 92 win playoff team. The budget will be enough that Tom isn't the clear, and only reason they didn't win and if they did that, it very much would be a Tom issue. 

Who are they spending it on though ?

You think Tucker returns? You think they'll spend 20+ mil on one of the FA SP?

Outside of RF the other positions are filled barring a trade

Not saying payroll going to stick at around 175, but there's limited roster spots available for them to add onto, im just not sure they'll go get a guy or two that looking for 20+ on a multi year deal to add that 50 mil to the payroll.