Cubs (Imanaga) vs Brewers (Ashby): 10/6/25, 8:08pm

[Chicago Al]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

If it's much higher than 5/100, I walk away.

If Nico was averaging 20 homeruns a season, 70-80 RBI’s, 30 steals to go along with his gold glove defense then I think he would get 5/100… IMO I think 7/100 right now would be a good deal for him (I’m no GM nor do I pretend to be one) I think that’s fair. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Chicago Al said:

If Nico was averaging 20 homeruns a season, 70-80 RBI’s, 30 steals to go along with his gold glove defense then I think he would get 5/100… IMO I think 7/100 right now would be a good deal for him (I’m no GM nor do I pretend to be one) I think that’s fair. 

Nico Hoerner has been the 22nd best offensive player in baseball over the last 3 years. Better than Semien, Elly, Adames, Chapman, Bregman, Harper just from looking in slots 23-30. 21st over the last two years, 20th best this year. Offering him $14m a year is an insult. 

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Sounds a lot like the Cubs during the regular season.  They pounded all of the weakest pitchers on the lousiest teams, but now they have to face good teams.

They won the season series against the Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, & Guardians. That is 5 playoff teams out of the 11 other playoff teams. They tied the Padres. They didn’t just beat lousy teams. 

[Chicago Al]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Nico Hoerner has been the 22nd best offensive player in baseball over the last 3 years. Better than Semien, Elly, Adames, Chapman, Bregman, Harper just from looking in slots 23-30. 21st over the last two years, 20th best this year. Offering him $14m a year is an insult. 

Well then it’s a good thing I’m not in charge of the Cubs’ contract negotiations.

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

They won the season series against the Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, & Guardians. That is 5 playoff teams out of the 11 other playoff teams. They tied the Padres. They didn’t just beat lousy teams. 

Also, lets remove the Brewers best SP and hitter for the playoffs, I'm certain that'll have no effect whatsoever.

[Jason Ross]

dRC+ is a statistic created by Baseball Prospectus designed to evaluated deserved runs created. One of the big factors dRC+ has that differentiates itself from wRC+ is that it factors in such things as competition faced. It also looks at expected outcomes versus simply recorded outcomes, but I think the focus on competition really is what is my favorite part.

The belief that the Cubs offense was bad against good pitching doesn't really show itself in dRC+. In fact, quite the opposite, as the Cubs finished with a 110 dRC+, which was good for fourth in baseball. 

I think a lot of the feeling that the Cubs offense just fell off was due to a lot of factors. Kyle Tucker got hurt and he's a top-15 offensive contributor in baseball, that's a massive blow. Pete Crow-Armstrong had a worse second half than a first half. Seiya Suzuki had his worst month at the end of the year. But even in factoring in the second half of the season, the Cubs dRC+ then was a 104, which was ninth in baseball (tied with, Milwaukee). Most teams would struggle if their best hitter on paper struggled like Tucker did and yet the Cubs maintained a top-10 offense on this metric. 

Basically, I think what I'm trying to say is a lot of times the vibes don't match the output. We feel down so we think everything is worse than it is. last two games have certainly been a bummer. Milwaukee winning the division was a bummer. But it does feel like we've swung maybe a little too far into the doom and gloom territory overall which is natural when the season feels like it's coming imminently, but also probably isn't an accurate assessment on what happened either. 

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

dRC+ is a statistic created by Baseball Prospectus designed to evaluated deserved runs created. One of the big factors dRC+ has that differentiates itself from wRC+ is that it factors in such things as competition faced. It also looks at expected outcomes versus simply recorded outcomes, but I think the focus on competition really is what is my favorite part.

The belief that the Cubs offense was bad against good pitching doesn't really show itself in dRC+. In fact, quite the opposite, as the Cubs finished with a 110 dRC+, which was good for fourth in baseball. 

I think a lot of the feeling that the Cubs offense just fell off was due to a lot of factors. Kyle Tucker got hurt and he's a top-15 offensive contributor in baseball, that's a massive blow. Pete Crow-Armstrong had a worse second half than a first half. Seiya Suzuki had his worst month at the end of the year. But even in factoring in the second half of the season, the Cubs dRC+ then was a 104, which was ninth in baseball (tied with, Milwaukee). Most teams would struggle if their best hitter on paper struggled like Tucker did and yet the Cubs maintained a top-10 offense on this metric. 

Basically, I think what I'm trying to say is a lot of times the vibes don't match the output. We feel down so we think everything is worse than it is. last two games have certainly been a bummer. Milwaukee winning the division was a bummer. But it does feel like we've swung maybe a little too far into the doom and gloom territory overall which is natural when the season feels like it's coming imminently, but also probably isn't an accurate assessment on what happened either. 

Don't come at them with numbers and evidence, it's all Brewers are better, blah, blah, blah.  Look at the division, the Brewers were unbeatable for a month and yet only won it by five games over a Cubs team dragged down by injuries.  As you've suggested the numbers don't jive nor do they suggest the Brewers are superior to the Cubs.

Edited October 7, 2025 by gflore34

[Cuzi]

15 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

If Nico was averaging 20 homeruns a season, 70-80 RBI’s, 30 steals to go along with his gold glove defense then I think he would get 5/100… IMO I think 7/100 right now would be a good deal for him (I’m no GM nor do I pretend to be one) I think that’s fair. 

We are talking about a FA contract. Andres Jimenez got 7/106 but that is only because his deal included 4 years of control. His FA years he's set to earn $23M/yr.

7/100 aint getting it done for Hoerner if he doesn't fall off a cliff. $14M/yr isn't getting you a 4 WAR player on the FA market.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

We are talking about a FA contract. Andres Jimenez got 7/106 but that is only because his deal included 4 years of control. His FA years he's set to earn $23M/yr.

7/100 aint getting it done for Hoerner if he doesn't fall off a cliff. $14M/yr isn't getting you a 4 WAR player on the FA market.

You say this, and it makes perfect sense. But earlier you said if an extension cost much more than 5/$100M you are walking. And, again, you proved it should be more than that. So do you just not want Nico, even realizing he is worth it? Is 5/$115 too much for you to consider? Shouldn’t Nico expect that? 

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You say this, and it makes perfect sense. But earlier you said if an extension cost much more than 5/$100M you are walking. And, again, you proved it should be more than that. So do you just not want Nico, even realizing he is worth it? Is 5/$115 too much for you to consider? Shouldn’t Nico expect that? 

5/100 puts him in the Ketel Marte range. Marte got 6/116.5. I'm docking Hoerner a year because he gets pretty much every bit of his value from his glove.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

5/100 puts him in the Ketel Marte range. Marte got 6/116.5. I'm docking Hoerner a year because he gets pretty much every bit of his value from his glove.

I would say from the Cubs standpoint Marte contract is a good guide. Nico is close in age to Marte’s age when he signed compared to when Nico will be up. But I think the Dbacks got a deal with Marte. I would expect Nico closer to $22M a year. Maybe 1 less year. 

[Soul]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Collins is about as close to being a star as Matt Shaw is to being a star.  Look at the numbers.  And by, any measure over a larger sample size Vaughn is still sh*t on a stick.

Vaughn, as well as many of these other Brewer players, will play fine with the Brewers right now.  But when they leave, they'll drop back down.  There's something about what they do that gets performance from players, sometimes just for the short term, or just in a certain role which is all they need at the time.

At the end of the day, the Brewers are just really good at what they do.  The get excellent value, turn it into performance on the field, then keep refreshing with the same model each year, so they rarely wind up having to pay top dollar.

Also notice, they don't go hog wild at the deadline either.  Look at teams like the Padres, who everyone was saying did great at the deadline.  The Brewers are on the cusp of the LCS and didn't spend key prospects to get there.

[soccer10k]

36 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Nico Hoerner has been the 22nd best offensive player in baseball over the last 3 years. Better than Semien, Elly, Adames, Chapman, Bregman, Harper just from looking in slots 23-30. 21st over the last two years, 20th best this year. Offering him $14m a year is an insult. 

Seriously. If Nico was doing the same stuff he’s currently doing except you changed a few doubles to be HRs, we’d be thinking of him the same way we were thing about PCA in June. Just changing 13 doubles to HRs to give him 20 for the year puts him at a .782 OPS. Presumably, if he had 20 HR power but maintained his speed, there would probably be some doubles that would turn into triples and singles that would turn into doubles so he’s likely over an .800 OPS.

Seiya had a .804 OPS this year which was a 130 OPS+. Peak Chase Utley was a 130-140 OPS+ hitter. Plus Gold Glove defense. That’s a guy who should be in MVP consideration.

[soccer10k]

16 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'm docking Hoerner a year because he gets pretty much every bit of his value from his glove.

 

The MLB average OPS was .719. Nico was .739. And that’s not factoring in positions.

[Cuzi]

12 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

 

The MLB average OPS was .719. Nico was .739. And that’s not factoring in positions.

His batting value is smack dab league average, where as the rest of his game is 95th percentile... So, yes.

No team is giving Hoerner a 9 figure deal because of his average bat. They would give it to him because you can't do much better than him on defense and his bat doesn't hinder his ability to start.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cuzi

[Chicago Al]

57 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Nico Hoerner has been the 22nd best offensive player in baseball over the last 3 years. Better than Semien, Elly, Adames, Chapman, Bregman, Harper just from looking in slots 23-30. 21st over the last two years, 20th best this year. Offering him $14m a year is an insult. 

So what do you think he gets then? 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

There's roughly a $75m difference between the luxury tax number that FG has for 2025 ($220m) and what they have for currently rostered players under contract for 2026 ($147m). A bench outfielder would presumably not be one of any consequence, with Happ, PCA, Suzuki, Caissie, and Alcantara all already here. A depth starter is....$15m? The bullpen cost roughly $25m-$30m this year. You really foresee another $30m or so drop in total spend?

Did you add in the Arbs?

But still, who are they going to spend it on outside of  getting an OFer that would probably start in RF (if they keep Suzuki as mostly DH) until Caissie is ready and a SP for depth ?

Maybe a depth reliever or two.

They might overpay to get their guy(s) on a shorter deal which would bump the payroll up, but i just dont see any openings, barring trades, to the roster for them to add significant costly players.

 

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

So what do you think he gets then? 

I think 6/$130 or so gives him about Dansby's AAV. Dansby was coming off a 6.4 fWAR season, and Hoerner has never cracked 5, but Hoerner's last four years have all been better than any other Braves year for Dansby. Plus generally contract values only go up, 2022 Dansby going into this offseason gets a lot more than what he got from us. 

[soccer10k]

22 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

His batting value is smack dab league average, where as the rest of his game is 95th percentile... So, yes.

No team is giving Hoerner a 9 figure deal because of his average bat. They would give it to him because you can't do much better than him on defense and his bat doesn't hinder his ability to start.

You said he gets pretty much every bit of his value from his glove. That’s not true.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

You said he gets pretty much every bit of his value from his glove. That’s not true.

Yes, it is. You dont seem to understand the definition of value.

If Hoerner's glove was on par with his bat, he would be a 2 WAR player. You could plug anyone into his spot and expect equal results because the average starting player accumulates around 2 WAR a year. But since his glove is so damn good, it increases his worth by 200%+. That, my friend, is VALUE.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Did you add in the Arbs?

But still, who are they going to spend it on outside of  getting an OFer that would probably start in RF (if they keep Suzuki as mostly DH) until Caissie is ready and a SP for depth ?

Maybe a depth reliever or two.

They might overpay to get their guy(s) on a shorter deal which would bump the payroll up, but i just dont see any openings, barring trades, to the roster for them to add significant costly players.

 

The current players under arbitration are Tucker, Willi Castro, McGuire, Steele, and Eli Morgan. The only new player eligible for arbitration next year is Javier Assad, everyone else under team control (Amaya, Busch, PCA, Palencia, Shaw, Horton) are all pre-arb. Tucker and Castro are gone, McGuire is de minimis, and Steele and Morgan aren't going to get any sort of material raise over the $6.5m and the $950k they made this year. Either way, the 2026 FG projections have them projected for $11.5m, which seems reasonable. 

The idea of taking a 92 win team that lost in the NLDS, removing your 5 fWAR right fielder, and essentially filling in the gaps around that because of Caissie/Alcantara/Ballesteros just isn't going to fly. Schwarber is out there but a terrible fit. Tucker is a great fit. Ranger Suarez, Valdez, Cease, Kelly, King are all clear upgrades in the rotation on the free agent market. Turning excess outfielders into pitching or any sort of improvement that isn't cost controlled is always an option. Running a $175m payroll isn't. 

 

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Yes, it is. You dont seem to understand the definition of value.

Nico Hoerner has 

• been the 8th best baserunner in baseball over the last three years
• has been an above average hitter every one of the last 5 years

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The current players under arbitration are Tucker, Willi Castro, McGuire, Steele, and Eli Morgan. The only new player eligible for arbitration next year is Javier Assad, everyone else under team control (Amaya, Busch, PCA, Palencia, Shaw, Horton) are all pre-arb. Tucker and Castro are gone, McGuire is de minimis, and Steele and Morgan aren't going to get any sort of material raise over the $6.5m and the $950k they made this year. Either way, the 2026 FG projections have them projected for $11.5m, which seems reasonable. 

The idea of taking a 92 win team that lost in the NLDS, removing your 5 fWAR right fielder, and essentially filling in the gaps around that because of Caissie/Alcantara/Ballesteros just isn't going to fly. Schwarber is out there but a terrible fit. Tucker is a great fit. Ranger Suarez, Valdez, Cease, Kelly, King are all clear upgrades in the rotation on the free agent market. Turning excess outfielders into pitching or any sort of improvement that isn't cost controlled is always an option. Running a $175m payroll isn't. 

 

Exactly this. 

I mentioned it last night and I'll just add this on as an adendum to this post here; Ricketts cares a lot about his public perception. He skips Cubs Con when things are bad, he blames anything and everything for his spending, he made David Ross a scapegoat as quicky as he could,  and you can see how Hoyer and the FO have to speak nice (even when it seems odd) about how generous he is. Tom cares about this stuff. He doesn't care enough to blow through to the top ends of the LT, but he does care enough that he wouldn't dare run a $175m payroll, down almost $50m after a 92 win playoff team. The budget will be enough that Tom isn't the clear, and only reason they didn't win and if they did that, it very much would be a Tom issue. 

[javy knows my name]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Yes, it is. You dont seem to understand the definition of value.

If Hoerner's glove was on par with his bat, he would be a 2 WAR player. You could plug anyone into his spot and expect equal results because the average starting player accumulates around 2 WAR a year. But since his glove is so damn good, it increases his worth by 200%+. That, my friend, is VALUE.

Lol what the actual horsefeathers is this

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

Lol what the actual horsefeathers is this