Cubs (Imanaga) vs Brewers (Ashby): 10/6/25, 8:08pm

[Jason Ross]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Who are they spending it on though ?

You think Tucker returns? You think they'll spend 20+ mil on one of the FA SP?

Outside of RF the other positions are filled barring a trade

Not saying payroll going to stick at around 175, but there's limited roster spots available for them to add onto, im just not sure they'll go get a guy or two that looking for 20+ on a multi year deal to add that 50 mil to the payroll.

The Cubs will find a SP or two. And like a reliver. And probably will need to buy a bench player or two. It's not super hard. 

Michael King or Ranger Suarez ($20m or so), plus picking up Kittredge's option ($8m), plus another RP or resigning Keller ($8-10m), a better version of Turner ($5m) and a utility player ($3m) adds up quickly. I just found about $40m right there. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not true. If the Cubs decide not to turn his  contract into a 5/$80m at the end of this season he can opt out. They paid him $23m so far. So if they don’t want him for $57m the next 3 years the would then leave it up to him if he wants to stay in the same 4/$53M he currently has. If he doesn’t he is a FA. 

I can see the Cubs not picking up their end of that option and leaving it in his hand to either takes the 2 years or FA, and If he leaves then they could use his money to go after Cease Valdez etc.

Edited October 8, 2025 by chibears55

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs will find a SP or two. And like a reliver. And probably will need to buy a bench player or two. It's not super hard. 

Michael King or Ranger Suarez ($20m or so), plus picking up Kittredge's option ($8m), plus another RP or resigning Keller ($8-10m), a better version of Turner ($5m) and a utility player ($3m) adds up quickly. I just found about $40m right there. 

That what I'm looking at too, so what were we disagreeing on? Lol

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

That what I'm looking at too, so what were we disagreeing on? Lol

Do you think Michael King is going to sign a one year contract? Do you think Brad Keller is signing a one year deal? You have been very adamant that the Cubs won't sign a contract past 2026 and that the Cubs will go as cheap as possible. I've already got the Cubs near $215m and I'm not sure that's all they will add. 

[George Hayduke]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

You could resign Nico to a 4 or 5 year deal or whatever.  He's also a SS for teams so we need to keep that in mind.  He could get 5/125 or something like that.   But we can't expect him to remain a 4 WAR player in his 30's.  From age 30-35 I could see something like 4.0 WAR, 3.5, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0.  Would I pay 5/125 for that?  No.

Not to latch onto just one relatively small part of your comment….but in your scenario above Nico would be worth 14.5 wins over five years for $125mm. That’s $8.6mm/WAR and I would pay that without hesitation.

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I can see the Cubs not picking up their end of that option and leaving it in his hand to either takes the 2 years or FA, and If he leaves then they could use his money to go after Cease Grey Valdez etc.

Who is Grey? 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not true. If the Cubs decide not to turn his  contract into a 5/$80m at the end of this season he can opt out. They paid him $23m so far. So if they don’t want him for $57m the next 3 years the would then leave it up to him if he wants to stay in the same 4/$53M he currently has. If he doesn’t he is a FA. 

Oh ok,   It's so confusing LOL.   Well could he beat 2/30 or whatever he's due the next 2 years with us?  I wouldn't give him 3 years.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who is Grey? 

He must mean Jon Gray.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, George Hayduke said:

Not to latch onto just one relatively small part of your comment….but in your scenario above Nico would be worth 14.5 wins over five years for $125mm. That’s $8.6mm/WAR and I would pay that without hesitation.

Besides that, how scientific is Stratos assessment of Hoerner faltering from a 4 WAR player to a 2 WAR player in 5 years? I would suggest it isn’t very scientific and strictly made up numbers. 

[Rcal10]

Just now, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

He must mean Jon Gray.

Even if he means him that’s a ridiculous guy to suggest the Cubs go after. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Even if he means him that’s a ridiculous guy to suggest the Cubs go after. 

Agreed, if there's another guy not mentioned here it would be Bieber assuming he opts out.

[chibears55]

29 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Do you think Michael King is going to sign a one year contract? Do you think Brad Keller is signing a one year deal? You have been very adamant that the Cubs won't sign a contract past 2026 and that the Cubs will go as cheap as possible. I've already got the Cubs near $215m and I'm not sure that's all they will add. 

I wasn't agreeing with the names just the positions, SP, bullpen, bench.

Right, I think theyll basically sign guys for 1 to 3 yrs at most this offseason, and id be surprised if they go 4+ with any new FA. unless like i mentioned above if Imanaga has the choice and chooses FA then they would likely go after a multi year SP to replace him.

I hope im wrong, I just feel theyre going to keep the guarenteed contracts limited going into the 2026 offseason with the possibility of a work stoppage and new cba having a cap.

As of now they just have Swanson guarenteed pass 2027

 

[chibears55]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who is Grey? 

Just spitballing names from the FA list, it was Gray.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Besides that, how scientific is Stratos assessment of Hoerner faltering from a 4 WAR player to a 2 WAR player in 5 years? I would suggest it isn’t very scientific and strictly made up numbers. 

To be fair, losing about a half a win for anyone past the age of 27ish is a pretty reasonable method of projecting depreciation/decline, and is pretty in line with how Zips does it if you look at the three year projections on their player pages. Like, here's the three year Zips for Nico going into this year:

 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Who are they spending it on though ?

You think Tucker returns? You think they'll spend 20+ mil on one of the FA SP?

Outside of RF the other positions are filled barring a trade

Not saying payroll going to stick at around 175, but there's limited roster spots available for them to add onto, im just not sure they'll go get a guy or two that looking for 20+ on a multi year deal to add that 50 mil to the payroll.

People won't like this opinion but the Cubs aren't going to get much better if at all via free agency from what they had all year this year.   Unless Ricketts ups the payroll to do something like both keep Tucker and acquire a quality SP.  If Tucker walks then at best we replace the value via free agent SP etc.  Otherwise the gains need to come from our young players getting better.   Shaw, PCA, Amaya, Brown etc plus some of the Iowa guys.

Still a 90 win team even if we don't improve over this year.

Edited October 8, 2025 by Stratos

[We Got The Whole 9]

I was only able to read the free content but The Athletic dropped a new article on teams picking up on pitchers tells. Unsurprisingly the Brewers are apparently mentioned heavily.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Besides that, how scientific is Stratos assessment of Hoerner faltering from a 4 WAR player to a 2 WAR player in 5 years? I would suggest it isn’t very scientific and strictly made up numbers. 

It wasn't scientific....it was super scientific! (or not).

Here's all the position players aged 34 or older this season.  You have to be a freak to be above-average at that age.  Nico's first season in his next contract he'll be 30 y/o:

[mk49]

28 minutes ago, Stratos said:

People won't like this opinion but the Cubs aren't going to get much better if at all via free agency from what they had all year this year.   Unless Ricketts ups the payroll to do something like both keep Tucker and acquire a quality SP.  If Tucker walks then at best we replace the value via free agent SP etc.  Otherwise the gains need to come from our young players getting better.   Shaw, PCA, Amaya, Brown etc plus some of the Iowa guys.

Still a 90 win team even if we don't improve over this year.

The Cubs could get better by selecting decent free agents (not like Ryan Pressly), IF Steele, Assad, Horton and Amaya are healthy, and as you mentioned, those younger guys would improve, more than likely.  Hodge and Brown shouldn't suck as bad next year.

Considering all the injuries, I didn't think the Cubs were going to win 90+ games this year.  

Edited October 8, 2025 by mk49

[Gjfificifjdej]

56 minutes ago, Stratos said:

People won't like this opinion but the Cubs aren't going to get much better if at all via free agency from what they had all year this year.   Unless Ricketts ups the payroll to do something like both keep Tucker and acquire a quality SP.  If Tucker walks then at best we replace the value via free agent SP etc.  Otherwise the gains need to come from our young players getting better.   Shaw, PCA, Amaya, Brown etc plus some of the Iowa guys.

Still a 90 win team even if we don't improve over this year.

85-90 is a fair bet tbh. Can’t count on the first half offence, but also unlikely the second half offensive catastrophe is repeated. 

[Chicago Al]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

People won't like this opinion but the Cubs aren't going to get much better if at all via free agency from what they had all year this year.   Unless Ricketts ups the payroll to do something like both keep Tucker and acquire a quality SP.  If Tucker walks then at best we replace the value via free agent SP etc.  Otherwise the gains need to come from our young players getting better.   Shaw, PCA, Amaya, Brown etc plus some of the Iowa guys.

Still a 90 win team even if we don't improve over this year.

Serious question, does next years team get to 90 wins w/o Tucker? Also, the offense hasn’t been the same since the first few months of the season. Is the team still favored to win 90 games if the offense produces like they have since the All Star break going into next year?

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

It wasn't scientific....it was super scientific! (or not).

Here's all the position players aged 34 or older this season.  You have to be a freak to be above-average at that age.  Nico's first season in his next contract he'll be 30 y/o:

Ok, fine. So even if he does trend like the others, does that mean if his WAR  is 5 next year than he will trend down to 3 in the 5th year? Using your criteria would be that be the case? Wouldn’t that be a total of 20WAR over 5 years? Well with the 5/$125. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

1 hour ago, Chicago Al said:

Serious question, does next years team get to 90 wins w/o Tucker? Also, the offense hasn’t been the same since the first few months of the season. Is the team still favored to win 90 games if the offense produces like they have since the All Star break going into next year?

If Tucker is as awful as he was after July, not exactly hard to replace that production 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Chicago Al said:

Serious question, does next years team get to 90 wins w/o Tucker? Also, the offense hasn’t been the same since the first few months of the season. Is the team still favored to win 90 games if the offense produces like they have since the All Star break going into next year?

It could.   Tucker/Seiya in RF/DH was about 7.5 WAR.  So replaced with Seiya/ Caissie/Moises/Alcantara/Long/bench bat etc is maybe a difference of about 2-3 wins.  You could grab 1-2 WAR upgrade signing a good SP, and if eg Shaw and Amaya have good years that's another 1-2 WAR.

Last halfs of offense don't typically carry over to the next year.  Didn't after 2023 or 2024.  It's usually just randomness.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, fine. So even if he does trend like the others, does that mean if his WAR  is 5 next year than he will trend down to 3 in the 5th year? Using your criteria would be that be the case? Wouldn’t that be a total of 20WAR over 5 years? Well with the 5/$125. 

I mean maybe.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Jesse Rogers finally stated what some of us surmised all along: the Cubs never intended to resign Tucker. 

 

It was a worthwhile gamble for sure. It was really fun for a few months.