Cubs (Imanaga) vs Brewers (Ashby): 10/6/25, 8:08pm

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Jesse Rogers finally stated what some of us surmised all along: the Cubs never intended to resign Tucker. 

 

It was a worthwhile gamble for sure. It was really fun for a few months. 

Not questioning you here, just curious where you saw that? Wanted to get the full context of it is all.

[CubUgly]

11 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Jesse Rogers finally stated what some of us surmised all along: the Cubs never intended to resign Tucker. 

 

It was a worthwhile gamble for sure. It was really fun for a few months. 

Honestly, I don't trust anything Jesse Rogers stated.   But it's not exactly something 90% of us here already believed anyway so not exactly going out on a limb - but whatever sources he claims to have - in my experience have not done him well in comparison to other guys like him that make a living trying to break news. 

[Derwood]

Cubs won't replace Tucker with Caissie/Alcantara/Other prospect

They'll sign some 33 year old vet to a two-year contract and hope to get 1-2 fWAR out of him

 

[Backtobanks]

27 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Cubs won't replace Tucker with Caissie/Alcantara/Other prospect

They'll sign some 33 year old vet to a two-year contract and hope to get 1-2 fWAR out of him

 

They will put Mo at DH, Suzuki in RF, and pocket the money. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Not questioning you here, just curious where you saw that? Wanted to get the full context of it is all.

In a response to a fan's question posed to him on X, he said theyre not going to try to resign him and that was the plan all along. Several articles have run it; not sure which was the first.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

Honestly, I don't trust anything Jesse Rogers stated.   But it's not exactly something 90% of us here already believed anyway so not exactly going out on a limb - but whatever sources he claims to have - in my experience have not done him well in comparison to other guys like him that make a living trying to break news. 

I actually don't agree with this at all.  Jess Rogers is an idiot, but hes a very well connected idiot.  It's pretty obvious that he's frequently hearing directly from Jed.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

In a response to a fan's question posed to him on X, he said theyre not going to try to resign him and that was the plan all along. Several articles have run it; not sure which was the first.

I think this is Roger’s making two separate statements that, while the first one is probably true (they won’t resign him), the second one can’t be proven wrong. The only way his second comment can be proven wrong is if they actually do sign him. To me this is an easy thing to report and claim you were right. I do think his productivity this year gives a lot of people pause on wanting him to sign here. So I would not be surprised if the Cubs don’t even really make any kind of an offer. But, to me, that doesn’t mean they never considered it. Just like many here have changed their mind on Tucker, I think that could have very well happened to the Cubs. End result is he won’t be here. Just dont think there is a way to prove either way if it was the original plan or not. 

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

In a response to a fan's question posed to him on X, he said theyre not going to try to resign him and that was the plan all along. Several articles have run it; not sure which was the first.

It does seem like Kaplan is reporting differently. It will be interesting to see which one has a better lede. 

[Bertz]

10 hours ago, Chicago Al said:

Serious question, does next years team get to 90 wins w/o Tucker? Also, the offense hasn’t been the same since the first few months of the season. Is the team still favored to win 90 games if the offense produces like they have since the All Star break going into next year?

The team is losing very little to free agency outside of Tucker, basically just all the veteran short relievers (and they hold an option on Kittredge, so maybe not even him).  Beyond that the roster's fairly young, so in aggregate you wouldn't expect much decline from the holdovers.

So i think it's fair to expect the team to be similar quality next year as it was this year.  Tucker staying or going doesn't swing the bottom line a ton IMO, it just shifts how the roster is balanced.  Are they an elite position player group (3rd in MLB) and an okay pitching staff (19th) like this year?  Or do they maybe end up more balanced, around 10th on both sides?

[Geographyhater8888]

10 hours ago, Chicago Al said:

Serious question, does next years team get to 90 wins w/o Tucker? Also, the offense hasn’t been the same since the first few months of the season. Is the team still favored to win 90 games if the offense produces like they have since the All Star break going into next year?

I expect something closer to the 56-48 team post May when Tucker became human. 30 homers and a 120s wRC+ from the catcher position I don’t see a repeat of that, PCAs 116 wRC+ was likely an aberration, Mo Ball will replace Tucker and Suzuki will move back into right field. I expect growth from Shaw which is a positive and 2 months of no Berti/Brujan. 
 

A full season of Horton and ideally a fully recovered Steele will be a positive reinforcement. If they add a Valdez or Cease then I believe 90 wins is doable depending on the offseason.

Edited October 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I expect something closer to the 56-48 team post May when Tucker became human. 30 homers and a 120s wRC+ from the catcher position I don’t see a repeat of that, PCAs 116 wRC+ was likely an aberration, Mo Ball will replace Tucker and Suzuki will move back into right field. I expect growth from Shaw which is a positive and 2 months of no Berti/Brujan. 
 

A full season of Horton and ideally a fully recovered Steele will be a positive reinforcement. If 

I do not think it beyond the realm of possibilities that PCA will improve with the bat, less power, more contact.  Also, do not believe we've seen Busch' ceiling.

Edited October 8, 2025 by gflore34

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I do not think it beyond the realm of possibilities that PCA will improve with the bat, less power, more contact.  Also, do not believe we've seen Busch' ceiling.

I agree with that. Busch was the most consistent hitter from march-September. Problem is his pas are limited with his platoon splits but was quietly our best hitter. How does Bellesteros project?

Edited October 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I do not think it beyond the realm of possibilities that PCA will improve with the bat, less power, more contact.  Also, do not believe we've seen Busch' ceiling.

Curious. Why is this Busch’s ceiling? 

[Outshined_One]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It does seem like Kaplan is reporting differently. It will be interesting to see which one has a better lede. 

The major problem the Cubs are going to have this coming offseason is that every team which was in on (and lost) the Soto/Ohtani sweepstakes is going to make a run at Tucker.  The Cubs *should* be able to make the best offer, but that's never a guarantee.

What's really annoying is we're at the point in the year when these schmucks can make baseless claims about the Cubs' intentions with Tucker using non-existent anonymous sources, and then after Tucker signs they can crow about being right, pretend the Cubs changed their minds, and/or never mention those claims ever again, depending on what's convenient.

My sense is the Cubs are going to make an early run at Tucker and, if those talks go nowhere, make a pivot to Cease/King and then do something like make a big offer to Murakami with Shaw being used as trade bait for a veteran corner OF.

[Geographyhater8888]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Curious. Why is this Busch’s ceiling? 

He doesn’t believe we’ve seen his ceiling.

[gflore34]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Curious. Why is this Busch’s ceiling? 

My fancy way of saying I believe Busch will improve.

[Rcal10]

Assuming they don’t go after Tucker, which is probably a safe bet, do they sign a different big bat? There are a lot of them. Schwarber, Bellinger, Alonso, Bregman, to name 4. Bellinger actually makes sense with his versatility. He won’t be that huge bat they would want, but he would allow them to replace Tucker with a guy who will make probably $10M AAV less and sign for  probably 5 less years. Then sign either Gallen or Cease. If they need to cut cost for these two signing maybe they let Shota walk. They go FA pitcher, Horton, Boyd, Tailon to start the season. Fill in 5th spot with Brown, Rea, Assad or Wicks. They have Steele probably around Memorial Day and Wiggins sometime around the ASB. I am fine with keeping Shota too. But not sure money works for two big signings without moving his money. 
This is just one option. They can also just trade for a front line starting pitcher if they bought a bat. Mo becomes trade bait. As does every other bat in the system. Look into Ryan, Gore, Alcantara, Cabrera or any other young controlled pitcher that works in the front of the rotation. 

[gflore34]

15 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The major problem the Cubs are going to have this coming offseason is that every team which was in on (and lost) the Soto/Ohtani sweepstakes is going to make a run at Tucker.  The Cubs *should* be able to make the best offer, but that's never a guarantee.

What's really annoying is we're at the point in the year when these schmucks can make baseless claims about the Cubs' intentions with Tucker using non-existent anonymous sources, and then after Tucker signs they can crow about being right, pretend the Cubs changed their minds, and/or never mention those claims ever again, depending on what's convenient.

My sense is the Cubs are going to make an early run at Tucker and, if those talks go nowhere, make a pivot to Cease/King and then do something like make a big offer to Murakami with Shaw being used as trade bait for a veteran corner OF.

I know the Cubs have had some success with signing Japanese players, just so leery of wasting resources on what, at times, seems like an exercise in futility.  Feels like the Dodgers have the market cornered on Japanese stars and all of them want to play only for the Dodgers.  During the pursuit of Sasaki didn't the Phillies say as much?  Think there was another team that dropped out along the same lines.

Edited October 8, 2025 by gflore34

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He doesn’t believe we’ve seen his ceiling.

Oops, read it wrong. My bad. Too early in Az. Also too stressed to bother reading!!!!😓

[Geographyhater8888]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Assuming they don’t go after Tucker, which is probably a safe bet, do they sign a different big bat? There are a lot of them. Schwarber, Bellinger, Alonso, Bregman, to name 4. Bellinger actually makes sense with his versatility. He won’t be that huge bat they would want, but he would allow them to replace Tucker with a guy who will make probably $10M AAV less and sign for  probably 5 less years. Then sign either Gallen or Cease. If they need to cut cost for these two signing maybe they let Shota walk. They go FA pitcher, Horton, Boyd, Tailon to start the season. Fill in 5th spot with Brown, Rea, Assad or Wicks. They have Steele probably around Memorial Day and Wiggins sometime around the ASB. I am fine with keeping Shota too. But not sure money works for two big signings without moving his money. 
This is just one option. They can also just trade for a front line starting pitcher if they bought a bat. Mo becomes trade bait. As does every other bat in the system. Look into Ryan, Gore, Alcantara, Cabrera or any other young controlled pitcher that works in the front of the rotation. 

I’d be surprised if they add an expensive bat. They definitely could use one but they’re set at every position group and have Mo Ball and Cassie as Tucker contingency plan and Happ and Suzuki in the future. Unless they packaged either of them in a trade for a cost controlled starter it just runs contrary to the front offices vision.

I’d bet any key addition would be another starting pitcher.

Edited October 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Outshined_One]

3 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I know the Cubs have had some success with signing Japanese players, just so leery of wasting resources on what, at times, seems like an exercise in futility.  Feels like the Dodgers have the market cornered on Japanese stars and all of them want to play only for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are pretty much set at 3B/1B between Freeman and Muncy, so I don't think they'll be serious competitors for Murakami.  The Yankees, on the other hand, are the current favorites, but assuming Bellinger opts out, they might end up pushing hard for Tucker instead.

[squally1313]

The annoying thing on the Tucker front is that he's the top free agent and so the odds of any specific team getting him are slim, and in the (likely) event we don't get him, we'll never actually know how much of an effort we made to sign him. It would be malpractice to not make at least a token offer, but the details will be murky and sent through a PR machine and we'll all just be left trying to decide which of the talking heads we want to trust the most. We made this great offer for Bregman that Ricketts personally signed off on! The teams with the pitchers wanted Horton AND Shaw AND Caissie! All these reporters trade in access and know the rules of how it works. 

We can basically sleepwalk through the offseason and end up with a projected 87 win team, for better or for worse. We're at risk of falling back into the 2023-2024 trap where it's like...all of these guys are good, why take a risk? With the answer being that none of them are great. I don't know....I've been saying for like 10 months now that it's time for Jed to make some hard decisions and pick lanes on some of these players, and he's continually punted. But it seems like it's time again. 

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The major problem the Cubs are going to have this coming offseason is that every team which was in on (and lost) the Soto/Ohtani sweepstakes is going to make a run at Tucker.  The Cubs *should* be able to make the best offer, but that's never a guarantee.

What's really annoying is we're at the point in the year when these schmucks can make baseless claims about the Cubs' intentions with Tucker using non-existent anonymous sources, and then after Tucker signs they can crow about being right, pretend the Cubs changed their minds, and/or never mention those claims ever again, depending on what's convenient.

My sense is the Cubs are going to make an early run at Tucker and, if those talks go nowhere, make a pivot to Cease/King and then do something like make a big offer to Murakami with Shaw being used as trade bait for a veteran corner OF.

Yeah, that feels likely. I don't think the Cubs ever had "no" intentions to resign Tucker - that seems like something that's incredibly farfetched. You can tell me they were never going to offer him, say, half a billion and I'd buy that every day and twice on Sunday, but the Cubs have artificially sniffed around into the deep waters on Shohei Ohtani and I don't think $375m over 10 years would be too far if they really like Tucker. 

That said, I don't think the Cubs will outbid anyone. Jed is a "line in the sand" kind of guy in that once you overstep the line of perceived value the Cubs kind of balk and Tucker will probably go to a team who is willing to get a little irrational. That said, I fully expect to hear the Cubs meet with Tucker's representatives throughout the early portion of the offseason and that will likely dispel any rumors they never had a single intention, either.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That said, I don't think the Cubs will outbid anyone. Jed is a "line in the sand" kind of guy in that once you overstep the line of perceived value the Cubs kind of balk and Tucker will probably go to a team who is willing to get a little irrational. That said, I fully expect to hear the Cubs meet with Tucker's representatives throughout the early portion of the offseason and that will likely dispel any rumors they never had a single intention, either.

I agree with all of this and I also hate it.

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

The annoying thing on the Tucker front is that he's the top free agent and so the odds of any specific team getting him are slim, and in the (likely) event we don't get him, we'll never actually know how much of an effort we made to sign him. It would be malpractice to not make at least a token offer, but the details will be murky and sent through a PR machine and we'll all just be left trying to decide which of the talking heads we want to trust the most. We made this great offer for Bregman that Ricketts personally signed off on! The teams with the pitchers wanted Horton AND Shaw AND Caissie! All these reporters trade in access and know the rules of how it works. 

We can basically sleepwalk through the offseason and end up with a projected 87 win team, for better or for worse. We're at risk of falling back into the 2023-2024 trap where it's like...all of these guys are good, why take a risk? With the answer being that none of them are great. I don't know....I've been saying for like 10 months now that it's time for Jed to make some hard decisions and pick lanes on some of these players, and he's continually punted. But it seems like it's time again. 

I'm fairly certain sellers' price tags for the Cubs were outrageous and why not?  It wasn't a secret the Cubs were in a tough spot and desperate to improve their pitching.